April 14th-16th 2023 Weekend Thread | $900K previews for Renfield

[M37]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

You really think Mario just pulled a sub 40% second weekend hold and isn’t going to hold way better than I2, for the next few weekends with zero comp especially? Best of luck with that. 
 

Kinda like arguing TGM wasn’t locked for 600 after that 2nd weekend drop…

Do you not understand how a Wednesday opening creates a better second weekend hold? 

 

You know what else had a sub-40% week 2 drop - off a Friday opening? Jungle Book 

 

48 minutes ago, M37 said:

If Mario makes ~$110M for this second week, and has Jungle Book legs from then on, would finish at ~$585M 

 

I’m just having a difficult time seeing a real push for $600M here (but ask me again if next weekend tops $60M)

 

[DisposedData]

Incredibles 2 made 46m in weekend 3. Mario should definitely beat that, but it's going to lose ground during the weekdays again.

[Cappoedameron]

10 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

I think a live action Zelda movie done rights has way more cross over appeal than an animated version.

 

I can see casuals treating it like Lord of the Rings.

 

Basically the opposite of Mario which had the most appeal animated.

I think by this point if you're doing Nintendo films keep them animated but Illumination Zelda does not sound appealing unless Miyamoto is on them just as strictly as he was with Mario because Zelda actually has a storyline and it's pretty complex unlike Mario.

[OceanBlvd]

13 minutes ago, grim22 said:

The Renfield trailer has 45M views. Wonder if 4.5M people will end up watching the movie WW.

That’s more than twice the amount of the Mario movie wtf. The latest trailer also has 19 million views while Mario final trailer barely scraped 10 million.

Edited April 16, 2023 by OceanBlvd

[kayumanggi]

 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Just now, OceanBlvd said:

That’s more than twice the amount of the Mario movie wtf. The latest trailer also has 19 million views while Mario final trailer barely scraped 10 million.

Trailer views rarely mean anything unless they’re insanely sky high numbers.

[DAJK]

8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

You really think Mario just pulled a sub 40% second weekend hold and isn’t going to hold way better than I2, for the next few weekends with zero comp especially? Best of luck with that. 
 

Kinda like arguing TGM wasn’t locked for 600 after that 2nd weekend drop…

Part of Mario's insane drop this weekend is that it is from a true FSS opening. Had it opened on a Friday, with roughly 20M of Thursday previews rolled in, the drop would be closer to 50%. Which is still good, but not TGM levels.

[JohnnyGossamer]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

You really think Mario just pulled a sub 40% second weekend hold and isn’t going to hold way better than I2, for the next few weekends with zero comp especially? Best of luck with that. 
 

Kinda like arguing TGM wasn’t locked for 600 after that 2nd weekend drop…

Well, Mario will likely trail the weekdays of I2 the rest of it's run. That might be difference. I2 also had the 4th of July holiday to boost its numbers a bit after it was out for almost 3 weeks. I'm not convinced just yet that Mario will pass it DOM.

[grey ghost]

1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Yes... I agree. But, that's a much bigger risk. Mario only cost Illumination 100M production budget. And, the hook is that it literally has one big goal... Recapture the feeling of playing the game. That's it. That's the whole thing. It does that very well and audiences love it. Since it's CG animated, it especially does that well. Then, tosses in the usual Illumination needles drops, winks, nods for the extra charm and some Easter eggs and voila... Done. Huge movie. Oh, yeah, it the most known game character maybe ever so everyone knows who he is and has played a Mario game over the past 50 years.

 

I think Zelda would be a considerable expense and is not four quadrant. The primary reason Mario is huge is because it's a kids movie that has crossover appeal. Zelda, if live action, will likely not pull many kids. So I'm not so sure it would end nearly as well for Zelda. I'd think if live action, the production budget would need to be something like 200M+... And, actually probably have to be somewhat self serious if live action which is an added risk because it can zap the fun out of movie. 

 

I agree the live action Zelda would be more expensive and a bigger risk. If it's not executed properly you could end up in the hole financially.

 

Financially an animated version is a better bet because you need less money globally to see a profit and you open up the opportunity to do an NCU which some people hate conceptually but would be a money printing machine.

 

Imagine if Marvel Studios stopped with the Iron Man movies. 

[OceanBlvd]

1 billion Crash movie? Bfr 😂

 

Crash will most likely be another Ratchet.

Edited April 16, 2023 by OceanBlvd

[wildphantom]

An adaptation of something like OoT cannot be one movie. That’s where, as much as I’m open to it being animated, I just don’t see a story split up in that form. It would be unprecedented for animation. 
 

It could happen though. I’d be thrilled if it was animated if the style was right.  

 

Ironically, back when Brave came out there were parts of that where I thought Pixar would be perfect to be given Zelda. But Disney are clearly not going to be allowed anywhere near a Nintendo property. 

[DisposedData]

2 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Part of Mario's insane drop this weekend is that it is from a true FSS opening. Had it opened on a Friday, with roughly 20M of Thursday previews rolled in, the drop would be closer to 50%. Which is still good, but not TGM levels.

This discounts the fact that Friday was inflated due to Good Friday.

[grey ghost]

It's crazy how the best comp for Mario went from BatB to Incredibles 2 over the weekend.

[Grebacio]

Sucks that Dean Deblois is gonna be attached to the How to train your dragon remake(s) for the next couple years, I think he could have been the perfect director for an animated Zelda movie

[Blaze Heatnix]

Illumination // Nintendo will probably confirm a sequel sooner or later. Hopefully they don' take 3/4 years to come with it.

 

A Donkey Kong movie with a reasonable budget would be great. Add in Kirby and then you porbably could get a Kirby movie.

 

Zelda is interesting, but I think Illuination should play safe for now. Just come with Super Mario Bros 2, then a Donkey Kong movie and then Kirby. 

[cookie]

Give Zelda to Dreamworks if you're going to do it animated. It wouldn't work in Illumination's wheelhouse at all.

[XXR & Friends]

There's a $65M domestic gap between TLK 19' and Incredibles 2 that Mario will slot into nicely. 

[MovieMan89]

 

5 minutes ago, M37 said:

Do you not understand how a Wednesday opening creates a better second weekend hold? 

 

You know what else had a sub-40% week 2 drop - off a Friday opening? Jungle Book 

 

 

Um, you do realize TJB’s 3.3x 2nd weekend multi gives Mario a  637m total right? And that’s assuming it doesn’t go up in actuals. Not exactly the movie I would compare it to if you’re trying to argue with me.

 

Also, we rarely see 5 day openers that are huge have that much of an effect on a 2nd weekend drop. It takes amazing WOM to hit sub 40% from a huge opening, regardless of 3 or 5 day. 

[Brainbug]

If were talking future videogame movies, i really really hope that the new Silent Hill movie will be good. Im a massive fan of the games and the movie from 2006 is one of my biggest guilty pleasures - it has flaws ofc, but i love it. The sequel ofc doesnt exist.

 

Heres hoping the new one will be great.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Just now, OceanBlvd said:

1 billion Crash movie? Bfr 😂

 

Crash will be another Ratchet.

I won't stand for this Crash slander!

 

Okay, maybe not 1B but it could do well. I think people that think video game movies will all of the sudden take off when none of them have been really big until Mario and dozens have produced and widely released since 2000 is that Mario recreates the playing of the game for people of ages. And, people of all ages have played at least one Mario game. That's really it. Aside from being easily the biggest brand of any video game character, that's the one thing it's done that the ones that came before it did not do.

 

So, with that, re-creating that same feel would mean for any adaptation of a video game to truly break out enormously at the box office, it should be a computer animated movie of a character that's a huge brand that plays it very safe to appeal to a huge audience with the primary target should be children.