April 14th-16th 2023 Weekend Thread | $900K previews for Renfield

[wildphantom]

22 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

 

Spider-verse Sequel is two parts. You can do Zelda Ocarina of Time and have it be a 2 part movie. Have the first movie end with him becoming Adult Link. 

Could be done. First Spider-Verse was a self contained story though. 
 

I’m all for Illumination doing Zelda if they can treat it seriously, with a totally different approach. I see them doing it as much more likely than another studio, even if they wouldn’t be my number one choice based on what they’ve done so far. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

 

[Borobudur]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Weekend multis is what we traditionally use to project runs with comps. I honestly couldn’t be bothered if you feel it’s incorrect, I’ll let you deal with that. 

I hope you don't start blaming Mario's not having summer mid-week like I2 when that movie can't hit 600m. 

[MovieMan89]

19 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

Jungle Book added an additional $172 million to its total after a second weekend of $61.5 million. The same multiplier gives Mario an extra $243 million assuming a second weekend of $87 million for a total of $591 million.

That’s not how you do weekend IMs though. You take what the movie was at before the weekend, subtract it from the total and then divide by the weekend number. 
 

Thats how I’ve always seen it done here. Otherwise you’re not really factoring in how the movie holds from the weekend # itself. 
 

Edit: nevermind, realize that’s what you did. I messed up a number in my earlier calc. Still works as a strong argument for over 600 though. 

Edited April 16, 2023 by MovieMan89

[MovieMan89]

15 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

I hope you don't start blaming Mario's not having summer mid-week like I2 when that movie can't hit 600m. 

I won’t “blame” anything. Just like I’m not “blaming” anything for being wrong about A2 hitting 700. It did come damn close though, so I hardly feel like I was wrong to argue so strongly for it very early on. 

[titanic2187]

On 4/15/2023 at 1:16 AM, DisposedData said:

5m seems pretty optimistic. Anime is notoriously frontloaded. 

Actually anime has become less and less frontloaded in recent years. Today they aren't a lot more frontloaded compared to some fan-driven but badly received movie.

 

On 4/15/2023 at 1:32 AM, JustLurking said:

Suzume isn't even going to sniff a 7.5x IM, simply no way.

The estimate come just right at $5m. 

[grey ghost]

Wouldn't The Lion King remake be a much better comp than Incredibles 2?

 

 

[screambaby]

1 hour ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Impersonated duke: throw the towel! Throw the damn towel!

[NamakFiskKa]

45 minutes ago, Firepower said:

 

 

Bioshock is gonna be a movie.

 

Yea just like how the like of Metal Gear solid movie have been stuck in production hell.

 

The samurai game movie by John Wick director could be cool if there's some bankable actor.

[grey ghost]

3 minutes ago, NamakFiskKa said:

 

Yea just like how the like of Metal Gear solid movie have been stuck in production hell.

 

The samurai game movie by John Wick director could be cool if there's some bankable actor.

 

 

I wonder if the samurai movie could be a success without cramming a white actor in there.

 

Could something like The Last Samurai work without Tom Cruise?

[interiorgatordecorator]

I seethe

[Johnny Tran]

Top Gun: Maverick 

 

Avatar: The Way of the Water 

 

Super Mario

 

3 very different movies just crushing it domestic and worldwide.  You love to see it. 

[M37]

54 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

 

Um, you do realize TJB’s 3.3x 2nd weekend multi gives Mario a  637m total right? And that’s assuming it doesn’t go up in actuals. Not exactly the movie I would compare it to if you’re trying to argue with me.

 

Also, we rarely see 5 day openers that are huge have that much of an effect on a 2nd weekend drop. It takes amazing WOM to hit sub 40% from a huge opening, regardless of 3 or 5 day. 

I’m not sure how, but your math is off, and I find using full week rather than weekend is a more accurate comp to account for nuances in audience and time of year (weekend share is variable)

 

JB had a $79M second week ($61.5) weekend), made another $154.4 after ($171.8M), for a 1.95x (2.79x). I have Mario with a ~$110M second week of that $87M weekend, at $370M total, which the JB comp would project to ~$587M  (or $590)

[interiorgatordecorator]

3 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

I seethe

 

nintendo youtubers have (cinematic) blood on their hands

[Johnny Tran]

1 hour ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

Illumination // Nintendo will probably confirm a sequel sooner or later. Hopefully they don' take 3/4 years to come with it.

 

A Donkey Kong movie with a reasonable budget would be great. Add in Kirby and then you porbably could get a Kirby movie.

 

Zelda is interesting, but I think Illuination should play safe for now. Just come with Super Mario Bros 2, then a Donkey Kong movie and then Kirby. 

 

I wonder how much appeal a Metroid movie would have.  I'd love it but would anyone else... 

[filmlover]

Would be funny if the box office for Mario was able to translate to a Best Animated Feature Oscar nomination (Despicable Me 2 is the only movie of theirs to be nominated). Golden Globes and PGA will definitely bite for sure.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

14 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

You love to see it. 

Do we?

[TwoMisfits]

To be fair to MovieMan (and Shawn, and me, who all saw the 85Mish Mario weekend coming)...

 

When the trades were pitching $58M, everyone said it was b/c Mario was coming off the big holiday and the Friday was so inflated that day that it didn't matter that there was no Thursday previews, it was like a Sat-Sat-Sun weekend and thus, a bigger fall was an automatic.

 

A bigger fall did not happen.  In fact, it was a hold even better than $85M.

 

So, with PLFs again next weekend, and another nothing-burger next weekend, I'm not betting against Mario still.  If Shawn puts up a big 3rd weekend prediction with what he sees, I'll probably jump on it, too...b/c I think this has done what TGM did - I think it is again drawing out the 1-2x/year GA b/c word got out that it was what fans wanted...and so they are willing to see it.  I remember seeing it on Easter and seeing groups of 5 to 75 year old families there - no age is put off, no demo is put off.  It's TGM all over again...just this time in animated form.  Usually the animated form does hold down the insane numbers, but then again, we've never had a Mario.  

Edited April 16, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[MovieMan89]

17 minutes ago, M37 said:

I’m not sure how, but your math is off, and I find using full week rather than weekend is a more accurate comp to account for nuances in audience and time of year (weekend share is variable)

 

JB had a $79M second week ($61.5) weekend), made another $154.4 after ($171.8M), for a 1.95x (2.79x). I have Mario with a ~$110M second week of that $87M weekend, at $370M total, which the JB comp would project to ~$587M  (or $590)

Yes, I said I messed up a number. It doesn’t matter much though since the correct calc still puts 600 in very good standing with that comp. 

[MovieMan89]

Rise of Skywalker and TLK remake are also going down as the highest grossing rotten movie DOM. Assuming Mario doesn’t go fresh like it seems to be trying to lately. 

Edited April 16, 2023 by MovieMan89