April 14th-16th 2023 Weekend Thread | $900K previews for Renfield

[OceanBlvd]

92 million?

[spizzer]

I think this finishes within 95% of Maverick's final gross.

[grey ghost]

So it ended up beating not only Frozen 2 (85m) but also Top Gun Maverick (90m) and Beauty and the Beast (90m).

 

600m is damn near a lock.

[KP1025]

Yeah, this Sunday hold has convinced me now of $600+ million and domestic animated record. If it does take it, I'm struggling to see another animated film that could take it in the future.

[Skim Beeble]

good god lmao

[Fanboy]

15 minutes ago, spizzer said:

I think this finishes within 95% of Maverick's final gross.

Might be a stretch. Anything over 650M will be really hard without summer weekdays. Needs to go well over 65M next weekend if it's gonna do that. The 2nd place holder for biggest third weekend of all time is Avatar with 68.5M. The biggest non-New Years third weekend is Black Panther and it had cleared 500M by the end of that weekend. 

Edited April 17, 2023 by Fanboy

[Fanboy]

Edit: Double Post

Edited April 17, 2023 by Fanboy
double post

[KP1025]

So despite the amazing OS weekend, it looks like DOM still managed to edge it out slightly depending on actuals. OS gross should overtake DOM when South Korea and Japan open.

[M37]

16 minutes ago, Fanboy said:

Down 13%!! From last Sunday?? How??!!

Because Easter Sunday is a holiday that on balance pulls families away from theaters, not draws them in like say Christmas Day, with Mario’s audience demographics likely amplifying that effect, creating a softer Easter and apparently a stronger rebound the following week (similar effect for Sat to lesser degree) 

 

 

 

 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

13 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

So it ended up beating not only Frozen 2 (85m) but also Top Gun Maverick (90m) and Beauty and the Beast (90m).

 

600m is damn near a lock.

 

[spizzer]

8 minutes ago, Fanboy said:

Might be a stretch. Anything over 650M will be really hard without summer weekdays. Needs to go well over 65M next weekend if it's gonna do that. The 2nd place holder for biggest third weekend of all time is Avatar with 68.5M. The biggest non-New Years third weekend is Black Panther and it had cleared 500M by the end of that weekend. 

 

Yup I expect >$65M next weekend. Nothing about it's run so far makes me feel like it can't continue to pull crazy holds.  Running almost like a 90s/early-00s family film just with larger volume.

[Gavin Feng]

Bottom line - Incredibles 2

Target: Avatar - The Way of Water

Ultimate goal - Top Gun: Maverick

[MCKillswitch123]

17 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

Yeah, this Sunday hold has convinced me now of $600+ million and domestic animated record. If it does take it, I'm struggling to see another animated film that could take it in the future.

 

Shrek the Fifth.

 

Also, an eventual Super Smash Bros. crossover (although I still defend to stay away from cinematic universes and just do a one-off crossover event if you really want it).

[Jonwo]

13 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

Shrek the Fifth.

 

 

Shrek 5 isn't going to do Mario numbers, the sequels and spin-off deflated that demand unlike Incredibles 2 and Finding Dory.

 

I'm still adamant that a live action Shrek would be a juggernaut,  another sequel isn't interesting but a retelling of the original film that is a spoof of Disney's live action remakes would work. With HTTYD in 2025, I think Shrek will be next either in 2026 or 2027.

Edited April 17, 2023 by Jonwo

[grey ghost]

Yeah Incredibles 2 is toast.

 

[M37]

The better Sun changes the math I was using yesterday, but not by much: probably looking at closer to $115M second week rather than $110M I was using to extrapolate. Still not enough IMO to say $600 is “locked”, but more plausible than it looked just a day ago 

 

I cannot stress enough how Easter weekend makes numbers wonky, including week over week comparisons, and we really have to wait to see next weekend’s hold to really gauge potential total. But my $60M cut line for a $600M potential just got a little easier off a $92M prior weekend rather than $88M

[superduperm]

That’s a legendary Sunday hold. When was the last time a Sunday projection was off this much? Even The Dark Knight and Avengers/End Game didn’t go up this much in terms of % IIRC. 87 to 92 is a 5.7% increase…

[Cheddar Please]

2 minutes ago, superduperm said:

That’s a legendary Sunday hold. When was the last time a Sunday projection was off this much? Even The Dark Knight and Avengers/End Game didn’t go up this much in terms of % IIRC. 87 to 92 is a 5.7% increase…

Maverick also had an 87m projection as of Sunday...

[vafrow]

Looking at the monthly figures, April 2023 has now outgrossed April 2022 with half a month to go.

 

Final gross is likely to be around the $900M mark, which will be the third best April, behind the 2018 and 2019 months, which were boosted with the Avengers films moving up a week into April.

 

This month is being boosted by Mario obviously, but, that's part of the return to normal. We got lots of big films last year, but the lack of small and mid sized hits lead to the feast and famine nature of last year.

 

This summer will be the big test. There's a lot more big films, but  the biggest films this year are likely to be smaller than last years tentpoles, so it'll be atl question of whether that'll be enough. We're now four months in a row of beating the prior months gross. I'd like to see that streak extend all summer.

[wildphantom]

That Sunday number is staggering.