SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE | 309.3M overseas | 690.6M worldwide

[Bobzaruni]

On 6/19/2023 at 1:44 AM, Bobzaruni said:

 

If it does 30M+ next week [weekdays + weekend] (240M~ by next Sunday), it'll be in the right area for it assuming it holds well after.  It also opens in SK this weekend so it should get at the very least a small boost of around $3m maybe? I'm not sure, could be way off either way. 

 

The only big competition this summer for both its primary demos — animation (Elemental) and Superhero (Flash)— came this week and it held somewhat okay against them. There's nothing significant at all in those groups for a long while now and what seems like a clear road so long as things go as they should, it should be in the cards. I don't think Indy, MI7, Barbie, or Oppenheimer have as much direct cross-over with ATSV so it shouldn't be affected as much by them other than losing screens.

 

Beat my primary checkpoint by 3.2M even though it just missed my SK target by less than $0.1M (which probably speaks to the strength in some other markets). 300M isn't probable at this point but it's still possible if everything goes right and it doesn't lose significant screens to Indy. 

 

-20.3% from last weekend (incl. SK) (27.6M-> 22M)

-27.5%~ from last weekend (excl. SK) (27.6M -> 20M~)

 

-21.9% from last full week (incl. SK) (43.8M -> 34.2M) [Running total: 209M -> 243.2M]

-28.5%~ from last full week (excl. SK) (43.8M -> 31.3M~) 

Edited June 25, 2023 by Bobzaruni

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

22 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

Funny that a movie so acclaimed by critics and audience alike without any controversy (Critical Drinker&frens love it!) is gonna crawl to those milestones. Makes Mario's achievement even more impressive in comparison.

It also makes me think superhero fatigue is definitely a thing, perhaps not so much in USA/Canada but definitely internationally. ATSV and GOTG3 would have been easy $1b+ movies that made 9 figs in China if they came out in 2019.

[Valonqar]

5 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

It also makes me think superhero fatigue is definitely a thing, perhaps not so much in USA/Canada but definitely internationally. ATSV and GOTG3 would have been easy $1b+ movies that made 9 figs in China if they came out in 2019.

 

I'm weary of "SH fatigue" phrase cause that's been thrown around ever since and never happened. Yet something is up. I mean, when SH-crazy markets are now only supporting very special SH movie(s) like NWH and showing average or low interest in the rest one has to wonder if it's covid impact on viewing habits (people are more selective, more home theater-bound) or change in trend where one genre is out and something else is in.

[Bobzaruni]

25 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

I'm weary of "SH fatigue" phrase cause that's been thrown around ever since and never happened. Yet something is up. I mean, when SH-crazy markets are now only supporting very special SH movie(s) like NWH and showing average or low interest in the rest one has to wonder if it's covid impact on viewing habits (people are more selective, more home theater-bound) or change in trend where one genre is out and something else is in.

People want 'event' films, ATSV wasn't that (and to a large degree GOTG3 wasn't either). They were surprisingly great movies carried by word of mouth. I'd wager BTSV could behave like an 'event' film under the right circumstances but we'll have to see.

[Valonqar]

59 minutes ago, Bobzaruni said:

People want 'event' films, ATSV wasn't that (and to a large degree GOTG3 wasn't either). They were surprisingly great movies carried by word of mouth. I'd wager BTSV could behave like an 'event' film under the right circumstances but we'll have to see.

 

Good point! Though perhaps there's a reason why SH movies aren't events even when great while some non-SH that weren't expected to be that big are now making SH event money (TGM, Mario).

[Spidey Freak]

2 hours ago, Valonqar said:

 

Funny that a movie so acclaimed by critics and audience alike without any controversy (Critical Drinker&frens love it!) is gonna crawl to those milestones. Makes Mario's achievement even more impressive in comparison.

 

Mario had the entire month to itself while SV2 released smack in the middle of every other film and its mother.

[MG10]

2 hours ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

It also makes me think superhero fatigue is definitely a thing, perhaps not so much in USA/Canada but definitely internationally. ATSV and GOTG3 would have been easy $1b+ movies that made 9 figs in China if they came out in 2019.

 

I thought at least here on BoxOfficeTheory I wouldn't see people throwing 1 billion predictions to every movie expected to do over 700M, Spider Verse 2 never had any chance

[Bob Train]

2 hours ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

It also makes me think superhero fatigue is definitely a thing, perhaps not so much in USA/Canada but definitely internationally. ATSV and GOTG3 would have been easy $1b+ movies that made 9 figs in China if they came out in 2019.

Guardians 3 beat Guardians 2 internationally (despite losing 30m from Russia) but is 40m short domestically.

 

Doesn't make sense to me

[Bob Train]

Spider-Verse hurt the competition more than the competition more than the competition hurt it. Transformers would 100% hit the 500m breakeven if it released in September.

[GOGODanca]

1 hour ago, Bob Train said:

Spider-Verse hurt the competition more than the competition more than the competition hurt it. Transformers would 100% hit the 500m breakeven if it released in September.

no it wouldn't

[salvador-232]

One factor that isn't really discussed is that most OS markets, simply do not have the screen capacity to have so many big movies releasing week after week. Even if they do not do well, they have very wide releases which cannibalize all the holdovers, even if they are doing well. 

 

For example, I've been tracking the number of showings in the third largest Chilean chain because I think Chile has a chance to be a top 10 OS market for Spiderverse. 

 

This is the change from last weekend to the current one. 

 

Flash 96 -----> 45
Spiderverse 68 ---> 59
Transformers 58 ----> 51
TLM 41 ----> 19
FFX 16 ---> 14

Elemental (new) ----> 87

 

Flash, despite being a huge bomb, made Spiderverse and Transformers lose half of their showings. And for this weekend, despite having a high attendance per screen, they still had to shred showings to make room for elemental, and next weekend it will be more of the same with Indiana Jones and Ruby Gillman, despite the former (and probably the latter) being DOA.

 

In Latin America is really apparent that Spiderverse has been held back by the insane amount of competition.

Edited June 25, 2023 by salvador-232

[John Marston]

I think the numbers are fine. Remember many people won't watch an animated Spider-Man movie because they will see it as a second tier version of the live action movies. Not saying they are right but that's just the way it is 

[Gavin Feng]

ATSV WW & holds

 

1st week：208.6M

2nd week：390M (+181.4M）
3rd week：489.3M (+99.3M, -45%)

4th week：560.3M (+71M, -28%)

[Spidey Freak]

6 hours ago, salvador-232 said:

One factor that isn't really discussed is that most OS markets, simply do not have the screen capacity to have so many big movies releasing week after week. Even if they do not do well, they have very wide releases which cannibalize all the holdovers, even if they are doing well. 

 

For example, I've been tracking the number of showings in the third largest Chilean chain because I think Chile has a chance to be a top 10 OS market for Spiderverse. 

 

This is the change from last weekend to the current one. 

 

Flash 96 -----> 45
Spiderverse 68 ---> 59
Transformers 58 ----> 51
TLM 41 ----> 19
FFX 16 ---> 14

Elemental (new) ----> 87

 

Flash, despite being a huge bomb, made Spiderverse and Transformers lose half of their showings. And for this weekend, despite having a high attendance per screen, they still had to shred showings to make room for elemental, and next weekend it will be more of the same with Indiana Jones and Ruby Gillman, despite the former (and probably the latter) being DOA.

 

In Latin America is really apparent that Spiderverse has been held back by the insane amount of competition.

 

Yes thank you. That's what I was getting at by saying this opened in a severely crowded time frame as opposed to Mario which was the only big player in the entirety of April but you gave it much more detail and brought receipts.

 

It would've been an amusing scenario if AtSV and Mario dates had been swapped. Mario losing screens in June and not living up to its potential because of it would have started a 'Woke Hollywood is flopping with its feminist Princess Peach' narrative by the haters

 

 

[Lake]

Comparisons to Mario are a bad idea & not fair, as Mario is simply a bigger brand overall worldwide.

Which will be demonstrated via sales in the gaming world yet again - when both their upcoming games release on the same day in a few months.

 

 

Edited June 26, 2023 by Lake

[MG10]

4 hours ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

Yes thank you. That's what I was getting at by saying this opened in a severely crowded time frame as opposed to Mario which was the only big player in the entirety of April but you gave it much more detail and brought receipts.

 

It would've been an amusing scenario if AtSV and Mario dates had been swapped. Mario losing screens in June and not living up to its potential because of it would have started a 'Woke Hollywood is flopping with its feminist Princess Peach' narrative by the haters

 

 

 

Your are talking like Mario would have lost half of its gross, in reality making 1.2B instead of 1.35B wouldn't have started anything...

[titanic2187]

SK will join China if the movie legs out badly, as another major market where ATSV failed to gain from its predecessor. 

[Bob Train]

Mario still would've made a billion in Spider-Verse's date, but not quite to the 1.3b hit it was. The worldwide OW of 380m, the Summer Weekdays, and most importantly the strength of the IP and good WOM would've catapulted it past a billion.

 

Spider-Verse would've made 420m+ domestically, and 380m+ internationally if released in Mario's date, and benefitting from 4 weeks of IMAX.

[Spidey Freak]

10 hours ago, Bob Train said:

Mario still would've made a billion in Spider-Verse's date, but not quite to the 1.3b hit it was. The worldwide OW of 380m, the Summer Weekdays, and most importantly the strength of the IP and good WOM would've catapulted it past a billion.

 

Spider-Verse would've made 420m+ domestically, and 380m+ internationally if released in Mario's date, and benefitting from 4 weeks of IMAX.

 

I mean it's hypothetical but I feel SV2 could have crossed 900M WW if it had Mario's date in April and maybe even a billie.

 

Not sure how big of a hit Mario would have taken in June. Some people are overconfident it wouldn't have been hurt much but the fact is it would have been bleeding screens regardless of reception, on a week to week basis.

 

Anyways, hope June 2023 proves to be a lesson for all movie studios. Or they could pressure theatre chains to build more premium screens.

[Spidey Freak]

23 hours ago, MG10 said:

Your are talking like Mario would have lost half of its gross, in reality making 1.2B instead of 1.35B wouldn't have started anything...

 

It literally would have no screens with Transformers, The Flash, Elemental, NHF and Indiana Jones on its ass to make 1.2B