Weekend Thread | Transformers $25.6M FRI

[Ezen Baklattan]

15 minutes ago, Austin said:

Has there ever been a weekend with 3 $50M grossers?

Closest we got was May 27-29, 2005.

 

1	1	Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith	$55,205,972	-49.1%	3,663	+2	$15,071	$255,648,711	2	Twentieth Century Fox
2	-	The Longest Yard	$47,606,480	-	3,634	-	$13,100	$47,606,480	1	Paramount Pictures
3	-	Madagascar	$47,224,594	-	4,131	-	$11,431	$47,224,594	1	DreamWorks Distribution

[Austin]

11 minutes ago, Ezen Baklattan said:

Closest we got was May 27-29, 2005.

 

1	1	Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith	$55,205,972	-49.1%	3,663	+2	$15,071	$255,648,711	2	Twentieth Century Fox
2	-	The Longest Yard	$47,606,480	-	3,634	-	$13,100	$47,606,480	1	Paramount Pictures
3	-	Madagascar	$47,224,594	-	4,131	-	$11,431	$47,224,594	1	DreamWorks Distribution

Since I ran out of reacts: 

 

I ask out of interest due to my highly unlikely prediction/hope for July 21-23 hehe.

Edited June 11, 2023 by Austin

[Austin]

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Edited June 11, 2023 by Austin

[Gopher]

Maybe this is just me following this stuff for 15 years (christ) but I've never seen the climate both on these boards and in general trade reporting so concerned with using whatever statistics we have access to in proving what's doing "well" or not-- while at the same time, these statistics have never been less transparent to independent observers. The budgets reported for these tentpoles are always lies, all of these movies were mega-inflated by covid shutdowns over the past few years. At the same time studios post-covid are making an absolute killing on $25 VOD rentals, which we'll never see the full result of, and according to the people who theoretically lost money on movies (again, huge grain of salt) that 17-day window system is actually putting theatrical bombs like The Northman into the black. We used to get data about what was selling on VHS/DVD, now we don't. Little Mermaid, Spiderverse and Transformers all made an untold killing through merchandising and marketing tie-ins. There's never been more we don't know, in my opinion, and that's how the studios like to have it (also why industry creatives are striking this year).

 

Some things that I personally think do matter are: when movies exceed their tracking (the stock uptick the Monday after opening weekend likely means as much to the studio as whatever the total theatrical profit will end up being), when these movies are actually well-liked by audiences, broader domestic and international trend shifts that demonstrate theatrical stability (Past Lives' performance this weekend makes me as optimistic as the success of Spiderverse, personally), and generally getting a sense of what people like and what's falling out of favor (which is why to me the superhero flops from earlier this year were genuinely kind of exciting, as if these movies actually have to be pretty good to do well now).

 

But as far as "Transformers has to clear 500 because x is coming from y place and z is coming from"-- that all sort of feels like a waste of time to me? By all means, compare this new movie's performance to other Transformers movies and other summer tentpoles, but the landscape is different now, and what these companies actually value is different now, so... everyone should have more fun, I guess!

Edited June 11, 2023 by Gopher

[von Kenni]

2 hours ago, Johnny Tran said:

 

You're not wrong in your assessment but Jordan Peele only came onto the scene less than a decade ago, it seems like there was more room for other directors to get their shine.  While I love Dune,  I'd be even more interested in seeing Denis do more mid-tier budget films. 

 

Did someone say Dune...

 

 

Looks like Denis' next project is Cleopatra and likely to be a bombastic budget again. If and when Dune Part 2 delivers the critical and financial success that is expected, he'll have a sizable budget to make Rendezvous with Rama. That's the movie that I've wanted to see since I read it some 20+ years ago. It'll be trickier to package for GA than Dune to make it a financial success and you can't really do it without a huge budget.

 

[JustLurking]

3 hours ago, Johnny Tran said:

 

Why aren't there more Jordan Peele like projects?   I'd say Nolan is the bigger version of this.  Good director, original ideas,  has a following,  and the budgets are kept in control,  usually end up with a nice profit. 

 

Shouldn't studios be trying more of that? 

The problem is that there are very few directors that actually command a solid base like nolan and peele do lol

[The Wild Eric]

7 minutes ago, Gopher said:

Maybe this is just me following this stuff for 15 years (christ) but I've never seen the climate both on these boards and in general trade reporting so concerned with using whatever statistics we have access to in proving what's doing "well" or not-- while at the same time, these statistics have never been less transparent to independent observers. The budgets reported for these tentpoles are always lies, all of these movies were mega-inflated by covid shutdowns over the past few years. At the same time studios post-covid are making an absolute killing on $25 VOD rentals, which we'll never see the full result of, and according to the people who theoretically lost money on movies (again, huge grain of salt) that 17-day window system is actually putting theatrical bombs like The Northman into the black. We used to get data about what was selling on VHS/DVD, now we don't. Little Mermaid, Spiderverse and Transformers all made an untold killing through merchandising and marketing tie-ins. There's never been less we don't know, in my opinion, and that's how the studios like to have it (also why industry creatives are striking this year).

 

Some things that I personally think do matter are: when movies exceed their tracking (the stock uptick the Monday after opening weekend likely means as much to the studio as whatever the total theatrical profit will end up being), when these movies are actually well-liked by audiences, broader domestic and international trend shifts that demonstrate theatrical stability (Past Lives' performance this weekend makes me as optimistic as the success of Spiderverse, personally), and generally getting a sense of what people like and what's falling out of favor (which is why to me the superhero flops from earlier this year were genuinely kind of exciting, as if these movies actually have to be pretty good to do well now).

 

But as far as "Transformers has to clear 500 because x is coming from y place and z is coming from"-- that all sort of feels like a waste of time to me? By all means, compare this new movie's performance to other Transformers movies and other summer tentpoles, but the landscape is different now, and what these companies actually value is different now, so... everyone should have more fun, I guess!

You my friend got the Eric Seal of Approval^TM (this is just me recommending your post lol)

[dnr 3301]

Christmas 2009 got close as well: Avatar $75.6M, Sherlock Holmes $62.3M and Alvin & the Chipmunks: the Squeakquel $48.9M.

[MightyDargon]

Villeneuve should do Children of Dune next, not Cleopatra. No matter who he casts "the discourse" will get whiny.

[CJohn]

3 movies below 1M in the top 10. There is a massive problem with depth going on right now. Dramas and comedies not connecting at all is very concerning. Air only did a measly 50M. A Man Called Otto struggled to hit 60M. No Hard Feelings will be lucky to do the same.

[grey ghost]

8 minutes ago, CJohn said:

3 movies below 1M in the top 10. There is a massive problem with depth going on right now. Dramas and comedies not connecting at all is very concerning. Air only did a measly 50M. A Man Called Otto struggled to hit 60M. No Hard Feelings will be lucky to do the same.

 

Audiences don't want to spend 12 dollars, gas, and time going to the theaters unless its an event.

[Starphanluke]

33 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

Villeneuve should do Children of Dune next, not Cleopatra. No matter who he casts "the discourse" will get whiny.

Dune Messiah would be next. I'd like to at least see him complete that and then move on. It's a good stopping point for a while. A different director could even pick it up from there if the movies continue.

[vafrow]

51 minutes ago, Gopher said:

Maybe this is just me following this stuff for 15 years (christ) but I've never seen the climate both on these boards and in general trade reporting so concerned with using whatever statistics we have access to in proving what's doing "well" or not-- while at the same time, these statistics have never been less transparent to independent observers. The budgets reported for these tentpoles are always lies, all of these movies were mega-inflated by covid shutdowns over the past few years. At the same time studios post-covid are making an absolute killing on $25 VOD rentals, which we'll never see the full result of, and according to the people who theoretically lost money on movies (again, huge grain of salt) that 17-day window system is actually putting theatrical bombs like The Northman into the black. We used to get data about what was selling on VHS/DVD, now we don't. Little Mermaid, Spiderverse and Transformers all made an untold killing through merchandising and marketing tie-ins. There's never been less we don't know, in my opinion, and that's how the studios like to have it (also why industry creatives are striking this year).

 

Some things that I personally think do matter are: when movies exceed their tracking (the stock uptick the Monday after opening weekend likely means as much to the studio as whatever the total theatrical profit will end up being), when these movies are actually well-liked by audiences, broader domestic and international trend shifts that demonstrate theatrical stability (Past Lives' performance this weekend makes me as optimistic as the success of Spiderverse, personally), and generally getting a sense of what people like and what's falling out of favor (which is why to me the superhero flops from earlier this year were genuinely kind of exciting, as if these movies actually have to be pretty good to do well now).

 

But as far as "Transformers has to clear 500 because x is coming from y place and z is coming from"-- that all sort of feels like a waste of time to me? By all means, compare this new movie's performance to other Transformers movies and other summer tentpoles, but the landscape is different now, and what these companies actually value is different now, so... everyone should have more fun, I guess!

 

I'd also add that the cost structure is under massive change in the industry, so, proclamations that X lost money, so this franchise is dead seems widely off.

 

COVID obviously threw off cost structures, but the streaming bubble had a big impact. Studios were competing with Netflix and Amazon for talent who were dumping bucket loads of cash.

 

But they'll also be dealing with new union deals, and overall inflation.

 

Everything is going to be assessed from the ground up.

[KGPatt2]

2 hours ago, Austin said:

ROTB is a sequel to Bumblebee lol

In what way?

[Unfitclock]

Smaller movies still do well i guarantee no hard feelings will be a 20 million plus opening or more

[CJohn]

4 minutes ago, Unfitclock said:

Smaller movies still do well i guarantee no hard feelings will be a 20 million plus opening or more

No Hard Feelings would be a 100M DOM grosser pre-pandemic.

[Torontofan]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

3 movies below 1M in the top 10. There is a massive problem with depth going on right now. Dramas and comedies not connecting at all is very concerning. Air only did a measly 50M. A Man Called Otto struggled to hit 60M. No Hard Feelings will be lucky to do the same.

Makes sense people don't want to spend 20 bucks to watch Tom hanks be a grumpy neighbour

[cannastop]

 

[grey ghost]

57 minutes ago, KGPatt2 said:

In what way?

 

Bumblebee takes place in the late 80's. ROTB continues in the early 90's.

 

Both pre-date the Bayformer films.

[grey ghost]

3 minutes ago, cannastop said:

 

 

Probably the most competitive 45 days in movie history.