Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.

[excel1]

3 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

only 3 cape movies with sub A- cinemascore have had "good legs" and thats the first thor and venom movies

 

I recall Inception having a B.  Didnt Joker have a B? Cinemascore is great ofc but there are obviously inconsistencies with some of them and judgment needs to be applied. 

Edited June 18, 2023 by excel1

[GOGODanca]

2 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

I recall Inception having a B.  Didnt Joker have a B? Cinemascore is great ofc but there are obviously inconsistencies with some of them and judgment needs to be applied. 

inception is not a superhero movie, its a high concept sci fi and joker was r rated and "disturbing"

 

flash is meant to be a crowd pleasing comic book movie

[Mulder]

2 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

only 3 cape movies with sub A- cinemascore have had "good legs" and thats the first thor and venom movies

Thanks for actually giving examples. Even if we assume Flash beats the odds and gets Venom legs (2.6x and 2.3x) or Thor 1 legs (2.8) that'd be a, going with 58, 133-162. That's still a really bad final result.

[XXR & Friends]

10 minutes ago, druv10 said:

Any update on the 5% increase you had posted earlier for Flash's Saturday jump?

 

Hard to tell but the data I have access to would seem to indicate a ~10% increase.

 

EDIT: Ehh probably not ~10%. More like 6-8% I guess. 

[excel1]

3 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Dude by default you can't just use generic 'movies' to show a point. Horror by default scores lower on CinemaScore, you can't compare horror films to superhero films. You have to work within the genre, hence why your statement was ridiculous. Either prove your point and show a leggy superhero film that got a B+ or lower CinemaScore or stop your trolling.

 

Don't tell me what I can or can't do with predictions for how films will play out. There are no rules there. 🤣

 

CS is not gospel. I have seen too many of these films. Flash WOM will be fine. 

[Mulder]

7 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

I recall Inception having a B.  Didnt Joker have a B? Cinemascore is great ofc but there are obviously inconsistencies with some of them and judgment needs to be applied. 

Joker got a B+ and is a very different kind of movie. 

[druv10]

6 minutes ago, XXRkham Asylum said:

 

Hard to tell but the data I have access to would seem to indicate a ~10% increase.

Thanks, not great but not a complete disaster Saturday jump either. 

[excel1]

I'll say this: Ezra Miller's struggles are a shame not only to Ezra's victims but because there is talent there. 

[JustLurking]

15 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

I recall Inception having a B.  Didnt Joker have a B? Cinemascore is great ofc but there are obviously inconsistencies with some of them and judgment needs to be applied. 

cinemascore isn't meant to be compared cross genre and cross demographic. also, both of these were B+.

 

the flash is a simple superhero film. you should compare it with other superhero films. score is not good.

Edited June 18, 2023 by JustLurking

[21C]

13 minutes ago, XXRkham Asylum said:

 

Hard to tell but the data I have access to would seem to indicate a ~10% increase.

 

EDIT: Ehh probably not ~10%. More like 6-8% I guess. 

Sub 55 weekend?

[Unfitclock]

@XXRkham Asylum Elemental have a good jump?

[PlatnumRoyce]

15 minutes ago, excel1 said:

CS is not gospel. I have seen too many of these films. Flash WOM will be fine. 

One very simple point that's worth stressing is that polling error exists so "observed CS" is different from "true CS" To pick two random examples: Girls Trip and Shazam had posttrak and cinemascore divergences and I probably believe GT over Shazam but both are probably "really" the lower notch than CS showed. There's no conceptual reason they should differ so its purely a polling discrepency. 

That's not the only reason for divergences between box office legs and CS implied legs but it's an obvious one. Of course, that doesn't apply to Flash and it's not clear to me we would ex ante assume the film had a worse cinemascore than true audience response due to stuff like genre confusion that gets resolved through WoM

Edited June 18, 2023 by PlatnumRoyce

[The GOAT]

-10% 2nd Weekend for the One of the best CB movies ever. 

[XXR & Friends]

8 minutes ago, 21C said:

Sub 55 weekend?

 

60/40 yes 

[The GOAT]

Ranking of DCEU movies

1. The Flash

2. Wonder Woman? 

3. Man of Steel?????

4. ??????

 

[ringedmortality]

Just now, The GOAT said:

Ranking of DCEU movies

1. The Flash

2. Wonder Woman? 

3. Man of Steel?????

4. ??????

 

 

1. The Suicide Squad

2. Wonder Woman

3. Shazam

 

And that's where the list ends.

[Bob Train]

Transformers had a horrible release date. Literally every other movie was competing for the same exact demographics.

 

All of Paramounts movies have horrible release dates this year. They had great release dates last year so idk what happened.

 

D&D - legs cut off by Mario. Wouldn't have broken even anyways but could've made, say 300m ww instead of 200m if it released on say, the last weekend of January.

 

Transformers - legs cut off by everything. Would've done better literally anywhere else. April, September, October, December, you name it.

 

MI7 - for some reason whoever chose the date was dumb enough to not realize Oppenheimer would take precious IMAX for 3 weeks the weekend after it released. Truly baffling decision. Should've moved it a weekend up.

 

TMNT - again, no IMAX. Should've released in Fall like other TMNT movies.

[Eevin]

people coping rn is crazy. how is there even room for it with this movie anymore. it’s done! it’s catastrophic! flash is not doing anywhere close to 3x with this kind of WOM and buzz, and even *if* it did that would still be what, 165? under black adam and way below basically everyone’s expectations just a few weeks ago? what is left to cope about?

 

[The GOAT]

4 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

1. The Suicide Squad

2. Wonder Woman

3. Shazam

 

And that's where the list ends.

The Flash is literally better than all of those movies and it's not even close. 

 

[PlatnumRoyce]

24 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

inception is not a superhero movie, its a high concept sci fi and joker was r rated and "disturbing"

 

flash is meant to be a crowd pleasing comic book movie

 CinemaScore's instant poll of audiences leaving the theater was divided pretty starkly by age. Parse the movie's mildly positive B-plus rating, and you find that the under-25s awarded it an A-minus, the 25-and-overs a B-minus — which on CinemaScore's generous bell curve is nearly a failing grade. - https://content.time.com/time/arts/article/0,8599,2004641,00.html

neither are amazing/consistent with public narratives of inception but is there an age story