Weekend Actuals (Jun 23 - 25) | 19.00M ATSV | 18.44M ELEMENTAL | 15.14M THE FLASH | 15.00M NO HARD FEELINGS

[ZeeSoh]

11 minutes ago, TomThomas said:

So... is The Flash still looking at record breaking drop? I assume they'll release it on vod next week.

Highely unlikely it breaks the record for a CBM movie as that belongs to Steel with a drop of 78%
 

The record for biggest drop for a 50m plus opener and for a movie in 4000 plus theatres rests with Fifty Shades and Morbius respectively with their 73.9% and 73.8% drops. So Flash is gonna require a 74% drop to beat that. I am a bit iffy on that as right now I see it being around a 73% drop. 

[M37]

3 minutes ago, LegionGPT said:

Yeah using some combination of:

cbm

50M+

4000+ 2nd weekend

 

Will be able to get a record for sure. The question is how few selections will it require.

I mean, Morbius checks all of those boxes other than $50M, and the bigger the OW you go the more relative size of Thursday previews becomes a factor and skews the weekend numbers (like DH2, which was -57% Sat/Sat vs Morbius -66%)

 

And between the BOGO offer for Sat and ATSV now taking back IMAX shows for Sunday, I'm not yet sure Flash avoids the -73.8% of Morbius, could see a weaker than norm Sat/Sun hold

[Cooper Legion]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

I mean, Morbius checks all of those boxes other than $50M, and the bigger the OW you go the more relative size of Thursday previews becomes a factor and skews the weekend numbers (like DH2, which was -57% Sat/Sat vs Morbius -66%)

 

And between the BOGO offer for Sat and ATSV now taking back IMAX shows for Sunday, I'm not yet sure Flash avoids the -73.8% of Morbius, could see a weaker than norm Sat/Sun hold

Yeah Morbius is the bar to not have to invoke 50M. I am pretty curious about Sun

[budice]

Safe to say NHF doesn't make above $5M OW without JLaw's participation? Arguably straight to VOD.

[Bishop54]

4 minutes ago, budice said:

Safe to say NHF doesn't make above $5M OW without JLaw's participation? Arguably straight to VOD.

Well, they paid her $25M so there's a long way to go.

[M37]

11 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Highely unlikely it breaks the record for a CBM movie as that belongs to Steel with a drop of 78%

Numbers are the numbers, but including a film that opened in 16th place in half the usual theater count at the time under the "CBM" umbrella just seems off to me. Even Jonah Hex or Teen Titans is pushing the limits IMO

[MightyDargon]

Meh, Flash will lose a shitload more money, which is what REALLY matters to the studio.

[TigerPaw]

Did Morbius open on a 4 day weekend?

Cause The Flash had inflated Father's Day Sunday which inflated OW and make 2nd weekend drop bigger.

[MightyDargon]

Again, it's basically irrelevant because Flash will lose shitloads more than Morb ever will even if the studio gives it a "good" estimate to make it look like its drop is better. Flash is basically what we THOUGHT Waterworld was in 1995.

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[MightyDargon]

Gonna be tough to get Beasts to 150 mil at this rate. Theater drops should start soon.

[M37]

12 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Did Morbius open on a 4 day weekend?

Cause The Flash had inflated Father's Day Sunday which inflated OW and make 2nd weekend drop bigger.

Yeah, there's all these little nuances when looking at OW vs 2nd weekend. Better measure IMO is just Sat/Sat, and it doesn't get much worse than Morbius's -66% for decent sized openers, without asterisks.  Like the two recent Halloween films, but those were also available on HBO Max, and 50 Shades at -75.5%, but that was vs Valentine's Day

 

Flash a $6M est Deadline gave would be -61.4%, worse than Shazam 2 at -60.8%, and one of the few pure >60% Sat/Sat drops in week 2. Can argue all day about what is the "worst" second weekend, depending on thresholds and caveats, but among the worst ever is assured for Flash. Said this before, but its playing closer to an extremely fan heavy anime film than a typical CBM

[ZeeSoh]

26 minutes ago, M37 said:

Numbers are the numbers, but including a film that opened in 16th place in half the usual theater count at the time under the "CBM" umbrella just seems off to me. Even Jonah Hex or Teen Titans is pushing the limits IMO

It is a Comic Book Movie because it is based on a comic book. How many theatres it opened in or what position it debuted at is irrelevant. 
 

You can argue however that the movie is irrelevant in current CBM movie era or that it should not count because it is only very loosely based on a comic book of the same name. But TC’s and debut position being used as disqualifiers does not make sense. 

[MightyDargon]

the pedantry around Flash's drop is now painfully boring. Please talk about something else.

[Eevin]

i’m not gonna lie flash having a catastrophic drop but **juuust barely* not a record for a CBM/50m+ opener would be very on-brand for how this run has gone so far

[MightyDargon]

What would have to happen for Beasts to hit 150 mil US? 

[AniNate]

I'm all too happy to fixate on Elemental's performance

[kayumanggi]

 

Edited June 25, 2023 by kayumanggi

[Grebacio]

Well you know, there's still the chance it has the worst 3rd weekend drop 👀