Weekend Actuals (Jun 23 - 25) | 19.00M ATSV | 18.44M ELEMENTAL | 15.14M THE FLASH | 15.00M NO HARD FEELINGS

[ringedmortality]

4 minutes ago, DAR said:

They brought back movie pass?

 

They relaunched back in May. I think the gist of it was the woman that was originally part of it but then got fired when it was sold to Helios and Matheson, bought back the name and relaunched it.

 

I don't get this credit system though. So the cheapest plan gives you 34 credits. But the movie credit worth depends on the day and time you see it. So you can spend 30 credits on one movie on a Saturday night, or you can go on Tuesday for 7 credits. It's still buggy as hell, except now a lot less convenient and cool.

Edited June 25, 2023 by ringedmortality

[emoviefan]

Looking ahead to next weekend I know the doom and gloom will be through the roof with Indy at the very least underperforming and Ruby outright tanking but the Top 9 movies should all be above 5 million or so. When was the last time that happened? You went choices and depth here you go. 

[JWR]

It would appear that reports of Pixar's death have been greatly exaggerated. All kidding aside, I'm happy to see Elemental having good word of mouth and I think this bodes well for future Disney animated offerings. 

 

[Litio]

12 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

 

Great job there Zassy boy but Batgirl would devalue the DC brand right?

 

How would Warner lose less money releasing The Flash on HBO Max? Do people think HBO Max has no marketing costs?

[DAR]

The good thing is Elemental doesn’t have a digital release date.  If Disney can hold off until kids are back in school then going forward maybe they push releases back further.

[MightyDargon]

5 minutes ago, Litio said:

How would Warner lose less money releasing The Flash on HBO Max? Do people think HBO Max has no marketing costs?

Oh I don't know, perhaps not spending on the giant marketing campaign insisting this was "the greatest superhero movie since the Dark Knight" might've been a good idea.

[AniNate]

32 minutes ago, Eric Wayne said:

Elemental I feel does well in having just enough wackiness and silliness for the kiddies, but also enough heart and quiet moments to make it fun for parents that it does well in translating to "yeah, worth a watch"-style WOM. The other big benefit of course is that this is a summer that doesn't have much of anything for kids, in particular girls and the 5-9 crowd who likely won't be all that enamored by Spider-Verse. So if you've already seen Little Mermaid, your options are pretty thin, especially with Barbie and Haunted Mansion being PG-13 movies (though I'm assuming they will still get a decent kid crowd? I think?). So with Ruby Gillman likely gone after two weeks, a lot of these kids don't have any other option until...Paw Patrol in September. It's really frustrating how few options there are for little kids tbh.

 

Either way, that will at least make the bleeding not as bad for Pixar and perhaps a good morale booster that their films can still appeal to the youths on the big screen.

 

Too bad they've only got one nostalgic toy commercial on the schedule though

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

28 minutes ago, Eric Wayne said:

Elemental I feel does well in having just enough wackiness and silliness for the kiddies, but also enough heart and quiet moments to make it fun for parents that it does well in translating to "yeah, worth a watch"-style WOM. The other big benefit of course is that this is a summer that doesn't have much of anything for kids, in particular girls and the 5-9 crowd who likely won't be all that enamored by Spider-Verse. So if you've already seen Little Mermaid, your options are pretty thin, especially with Barbie and Haunted Mansion being PG-13 movies (though I'm assuming they will still get a decent kid crowd? I think?). So with Ruby Gillman likely gone after two weeks, a lot of these kids don't have any other option until...Paw Patrol in September. It's really frustrating how few options there are for little kids tbh.

 

Either way, that will at least make the bleeding not as bad for Pixar and perhaps a good morale booster that their films can still appeal to the youths on the big screen.

Agreed, I think some are unederestimating the legs on this for exactly the reasons you specified. We've just seen PIB2 pull off a 15x multiplier and Mario 4x (off of a 140m opening!) in the absence of another kid-friendly animated feature. The lack of competition means that these films are allowed to dominate the 5-10yo young family demographic for months so they become immune from losing screens while a carousel of PG13 movies come and go.

[Bob Train]

Post-COVID Box Office is so depressing that a $45m movie opening to $15m is considered a great performance

[Willowra]

54 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

So just for fun I want to know how much Indy 5 needs to gross to avoid bombing as hard as The Flash. Let's assume the reported production budgets are correct ($220m for Flash, $290m for Indy) then based on this image

a marketing budget of $160m for both movies seems suitable (the number doesn't really matter, just that both probably have a similar marketing budget based on historical blockbuster marketing budgets).

 

For The Flash if it ends up finishing at 105/170 that would be a take-home of roughly 105 * 0.5 + 170 * 0.4 = $120.5m, let's just say $120m and an overall loss of $260m (220m prod + 160 marketing - 120m theatrical).

 

For Indy 5 to do better than that, it would need to bring in more than $190m in theatrical revenue to offset its $450m cost. Assuming a 40:60 DOM:OS ratio (same as The Crystal Skull) this would be distributed as $173m DOM and $259m OS for $432m worldwide.

 

I'm pessimistic on Indy 5 (I even have a club where I think it will gross less than Puss in Boots 2's $484m) but I think it should clear $432m. Obviously this doesn't include post-theatrical earnings where I think it should do better than The Flash but that's an entirely different story and I could be way off on that one.

Very few movies are able to recover money just through theatrical revenue. Even GOTG3 won't be able to recover its 410m  budget plus marketing costs just through theatrical business, as its theatrical revenue would be around 360m .And also, other than budget and marketing, there are other costs like video costs, taxes, participations, and residuals, which add another 130m+ to the total cost.

[Litio]

2 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

Oh I don't know, perhaps not spending on the giant marketing campaign insisting this was "the greatest superhero movie since the Dark Knight" might've been a good idea.

Yes, but Warner wasn't wrong to release The Flash in theaters. The mistake was overmarket the film. Even 'The Batman', which is a much better movie, wasn't as aggressively marketed as 'The Flash'.

[SchumacherFTW]

6 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

Agreed, I think some are unederestimating the legs on this for exactly the reasons you specified. We've just seen PIB2 pull off a 15x multiplier and Mario 4x (off of a 140m opening!) in the absence of another kid-friendly animated feature. The lack of competition means that these films are allowed to dominate the 5-10yo young family demographic for months so they become immune from losing screens while a carousel of PG13 movies come and go.

Mario is more a 2.8x, that 5 day opening was 200m after all

[MightyDargon]

3 minutes ago, Litio said:

Yes, but Warner wasn't wrong to release The Flash in theaters. The mistake was overmarket the film. Even 'The Batman', which is a much better movie, wasn't as aggressively marketed as 'The Flash'.

I'd argue that The Batman benefitted from not getting marketed in the same way The Flash did.

[Borobudur]

2 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Post-COVID Box Office is so depressing that a $45m movie opening to $15m is considered a great performance

I won't call a great but it is still a as good as it get opening. The movie will likely end around $45m-50m, and it is not like it is very easy to have your domestic gross matching budget this summer, especially for big tentpoles.  I would say only ATSV, GOTG and TLM managed to achieve that.  

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

5 minutes ago, Willowra said:

Very few movies are able to recover money just through theatrical revenue. Even GOTG3 won't be able to recover its 410m  budget plus marketing costs just through theatrical business, as its theatrical revenue would be around 360m .And also, other than budget and marketing, there are other costs like video costs, taxes, participations, and residuals, which add another 130m+ to the total cost.

I know, which is why the $260m loss figure isn't its true loss. However I'm just comparing Indys theatrical revenue with Flash here and assuming their post-theatrical revenue will roughly cancel out, though tbh idk if one is more likely to make more money than the other outside of the cinema.

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

Apparently that is the best second weekend hold for a Pixar movie since Up. Kinda surprising.

It’s not. Like i mentioned earlier, when a major summer animated tentpole opens that disastrously low, there absolutely has to be some inevitable course correcting that happens unless audiences simply despise it. Obviously Elemental doesn’t sound like it has toxic WOM or anything. 4x could happen, and I’d still only chalk it up to natural course correction. 

[Willowra]

7 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

I know, which is why the $260m loss figure isn't its true loss. However I'm just comparing Indys theatrical revenue with Flash here and assuming their post-theatrical revenue will roughly cancel out, though tbh idk if one is more likely to make more money than the other outside of the cinema.

When we add $140m+ other cost to $260m loss, total loss figure would be $400m but it would earn around $200m in post theatrical revenue so net loss of The Flash would be around $200m.

Edited June 25, 2023 by Willowra

[LegionWrex]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

So just for fun I want to know how much Indy 5 needs to gross to avoid bombing as hard as The Flash. Let's assume the reported production budgets are correct ($220m for Flash, $290m for Indy) then based on this image

a marketing budget of $160m for both movies seems suitable (the number doesn't really matter, just that both probably have a similar marketing budget based on historical blockbuster marketing budgets).

 

For The Flash if it ends up finishing at 105/170 that would be a take-home of roughly 105 * 0.5 + 170 * 0.4 = $120.5m, let's just say $120m and an overall loss of $260m (220m prod + 160 marketing - 120m theatrical).

 

For Indy 5 to do better than that, it would need to bring in more than $190m in theatrical revenue to offset its $450m cost. Assuming a 40:60 DOM:OS ratio (same as The Crystal Skull) this would be distributed as $173m DOM and $259m OS for $432m worldwide.

 

I'm pessimistic on Indy 5 (I even have a club where I think it will gross less than Puss in Boots 2's $484m) but I think it should clear $432m. Obviously this doesn't include post-theatrical earnings where I think it should do better than The Flash but that's an entirely different story and I could be way off on that one.

Great analysis. Right now it's looking pretty dire for Indy OW wise, but I'm still thinking it ends somewhere in the $500 million range. I know I'm going by hearsay with this and that's almost never a sure thing when it comes to stuff like this but at least irl most of the people I know who are 35/40+ are planning to see Indy regardless of reviews (my dad and mom included) so at the very least I think the older crowd will show up for it.

 

The question remains is the younger crowd even going to show up at all, which seems to be the real test.

[Grebacio]

43 minutes ago, Eric Wayne said:

 So if you've already seen Little Mermaid, your options are pretty thin, especially with Barbie and Haunted Mansion being PG-13 movies (though I'm assuming they will still get a decent kid crowd? I think?). So with Ruby Gillman likely gone after two weeks, a lot of these kids don't have any other option until...Paw Patrol in September. It's really frustrating how few options there are for little kids tbh.

 

 

There's TMNT on August 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

2 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

There's TMNT on August 

Let's be honest with ourselves: that movie will be lucky to make Smurfs The Lost Village numbers. It should have been out a decade ago when the Turtles were still fairly popular and the first Nickelodeon series was in its prime. Now, when no one cares about the brand anymore? And with the trailers not leaving much of a mark? And especially with the stench of the Michael Bay movies? I don't think that'll be a threat to Elemental at all.