Steve Rogers Birthday Bash Weekend Thread | 5-Day #s: Indy 83.4, Elemental 18, Spidey 17.65, Sound of Freedom 14.2, No Hard Feelings 11.3

[Torontofan]

Disney still think it 2019 and can release massive blockbusters every 5 weeks and make a billion dollars each time lol 

[TwoMisfits]

9 hours ago, RthMav said:

DOD About the same I had 23m

 

So, $1M less, give or take, than Deadline...

 

If it's $23M...

Thursday $7.2M

Friday $15.8M

 

Then maybe...if it's Flash-like reception...

Saturday $17.3M (+10%)

Sunday $13.0 (-25%)

 

Total $53.3M?

[G Doss]

I believe I said this would do Star Trek Beyond numbers. Aimed at an aging sci-fi fan base with no clear reason for existing, it is impossible to get people excited about it. 

 

I was mocked for that prediction but 60/170 is pretty close...

 

Bob Iger has ruined Disney. The company is dead creatively and morally, while he reaps a huge executive compensation package, even by Fortune 500 standards. 

 

It's time for him to be fired and the company needs to sue him to claw back some of that cash to make themselves whole. Clock is ticking to buy the rest of Hulu and they don't have enough money. 

[The Dark Alfred]

The opening itself is not awful, in line with the latest BOND and MI films, the issue is it's not a good film, WoM won't be great and will get crushed the next few weeks. Domestic tally will be below JOHN WICK 4. That's not what you expect from an INDIANA JONES film.

Edited July 1, 2023 by The Dark Alfred

[Mulder]

2 minutes ago, G Doss said:

I believe I said this would do Star Trek Beyond numbers. Aimed at an aging sci-fi fan base with no clear reason for existing, it is impossible to get people excited about it. 

 

I was mocked for that prediction but 60/170 is pretty close...

 

Bob Iger has ruined Disney. The company is dead creatively and morally, while he reaps a huge executive compensation package, even by Fortune 500 standards. 

 

It's time for him to be fired and the company needs to sue him to claw back some of that cash to make themselves whole. Clock is ticking to buy the rest of Hulu and they don't have enough money. 

Lol I checked, that was not your prediction. 

 

[TwoMisfits]

PS - Now that I got the 2 mega-bombs right this summer back-to-back (although I still think final DOM, I'll be too high, which is really bad for WB and Disney), I think I should admit the rest of my pre-summer summer expectations are likely to be wildly wrong as I revert back to the mean...but I am looking forward to Barbie Zeitgiest, even if it means it breaks out of my presummer $200-$300M pocket - I hope it does:)...it will be good to finally UNDER estimate something:)...

Edited July 1, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Mulder]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

PS - Now that I got the 2 mega-bombs right this summer back-to-back (although I still think final DOM, I'll be too high, which is really bad for WB and Disney), I think I should admit the rest of my pre-summer summer expectations are likely to be wildly wrong as I revert back to the mean...but I am looking forward to Barbie Zeitgiest, even if it means it breaks out of my presummer $200-$300M pocket - I hope it does:)...it will be good to finally UNDER estimate something:)...

You insisted GoTG 3 was going sub-300.

[TwoMisfits]

Before Deadline updates, here was their 4, 5, and 6 (Ruby $6M, so everything else is under that number)...

 

4.) No Hard Feelings (Sony) 3,208 theaters, Fri $2.3M (-63%), 3-day $7.6M (-50%), Total $29.4M /Wk 2

5.) Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (Par) 2,852 theaters, Fri $1.85M (-42%), 3-day $6.5M (-45%), Total $135.6M/Wk 4

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, Mulder said:

You insisted GoTG 3 was going sub-300.

 

Yes, I was about $60M wrong on that - I had it at $400M and then under $300M after the disasters of Feb/Mar...

 

I take that as a semi-wrong, b/c I was in all the right clubs except Top 5 WW:)...

 

I mean, 20% off isn't that much compared to a big miss:)...

 

Technically, with Flash uber-bombing, I might be even further off percentage wise on that one's final DOM, but as one of the lowest on the board except the under $100M club (that was inspired, if still wrong)...I take it as a win (what is it, directionally correct:)...

Edited July 1, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[TwoMisfits]

PS - For the rest of the summer, my family has made their thoughts known.  As some know, they are my barometer for if my BO thoughts and gut are starting to line up with reality...

 

They are split on movies for the end of the summer, so nothing is an "all 6 movie"...

 

The spouse and I are in MI 7 with the deal.

The older girls are ALL IN on Barbie.  Palpalable excitement and "when am I gonna buy tickets?"

The younger boys are in for TMNT.

 

So, if you want the movies not named Oppenheimer (which I also think will do well) which should do well to uber-well the rest of the summer...there you have it.  I'd have preferred all 6 wanted the same movie (like Mario and Spidey) b/c that tends to make it more likely movies are hitting a lot of age groups, genders, and interests and are going super big...but there you go.

 

And while we're comics fans, no one has wanted Blue Beetle, so I'd be in the "sorry DC, this isn't gonna fly really high either" club, although what's that even mean for DC anymore...I mean, it still should probably clear Shazam 2, but that's a nothing...

Edited July 1, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Torontofan]

Thing about Nolan films even if they dont make a massive amount at the box office they have a long shelf life

[WebSurfer]

I think DOD got a B+ on CinemaScore.

 

[JWR]

16 hours ago, LegionWrex said:

Anyways about to see Indy 5 in the next couple of hours or so. Looking forward to it, will report back once I do see it!

 

Box office wise it seems to be fucked, no ways around that. It's got the 5-day weekend so I will wait until after the 4th of July to pass full judgment on it's legs (movies on these dates can be hard to predict sometimes) but the preview numbers aren't encouraging and Post-Trak scores are in line with Crystal Skull which indicates similar feelings to that film. Between this and Quantumania disappointing there are definitely going to be some hard looks into Disney's output over the next couple of years I think, though thankfully they seem to be understanding that Elemental's legs are nothing to be scoffed at, that will likely be a small success story even if it will sadly struggle to make a profit in theaters.

 

On the other hand, lost in the midst of this, is Ruby Gillman's complete and utter lack of anything. The fact it cost $70M makes me think this could end up being on the bigger bombs that DreamWorks have put out in recent memory, and I wouldn't be shocked if many animation fans/families just opted to see much buzzed about Elemental or even Nimona on Netflix (which is getting raves, can't wait to watch that!). DOA might be too kind to it cause it was barely even alive, it sort of just was there, already dead.

 

Sad for the people behind Ruby Gillman. Universal showed practically zero faith in it and are putting out digitally on July 18.

[FunkMiller]

32 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, if you want the movies not named Oppenheimer (which I also think will do well) 

 

I'm more pessimistic about Oppenheimer than most around here - which is a bit surprising as I am an annoying Nolan stan. I don't think the subject matter is exciting or compelling enough to sustain that good a box office haul. Three hours is a long time to spend on the Manhattan Project, and I think a lot of the WOM will be 'it's Nolan so it's good, but wait for streaming'.

[MysteryMovieMogul]

27 minutes ago, JWR said:

 

Sad for the people behind Ruby Gillman. Universal showed practically zero faith in it and are putting out digitally on July 18.

Obviously, Disney and Disney+ are to blame! /s

[Zakiyyah6]

1 hour ago, setna said:

 

Yeh, i´m also on my 50¨s and of course loved Indy. Temple of Doom is the only movie in my life i went 3 times in the first 3 weeks, and it´s sad to see Ford so old, but it´s like it is. 
Of course Spielberg & Lucas was the right team, but we know what happened with Lucasfilm....

I think in some years Disney will recast Indy and they´ll try to get more money with the character, but i think will be very hard not to associate Indy with Ford, very diffciult, at least for people who loved the first three movies.

 

I hope you enjoy in theater watching it, i won´t go, Disney killed all my hopes after killing Han Solo, how can be this possible???

 

I still can´t forgive this....

Han Solo was killed because Ford wanted him to die. Why is it so difficult for Star Wars fans to blame the actual person who killed Han Solo? You must blame Ford for that plot point. 

[Dragoncaine]

9 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

23-24 would not be that bad and would probably get it to 60/170. Which, obviously, not great, but not the John Carter/The Flash level flop it is being made out to be.

 

The visceral hate some people have for this movie relative to other unsuccesful franchise sequels is kinda weird.

I don't really get this "it's not that bad of a flop" mindset. The budget was $295m. It's one of the most expensive movies ever made. Opening $5m higher than Flash on a $95m higher budget with similar (though slightly better) audience reception is the opposite of encouraging. Breakeven should be somewhere around $737.5m.

[TomThomas]

24 minutes ago, FunkMiller said:

 

I'm more pessimistic about Oppenheimer than most around here - which is a bit surprising as I am an annoying Nolan stan. I don't think the subject matter is exciting or compelling enough to sustain that good a box office haul. Three hours is a long time to spend on the Manhattan Project, and I think a lot of the WOM will be 'it's Nolan so it's good, but wait for streaming'.

"Wait for streaming" mentality is the reason why the industry is in such a dire state. If Oppenheimer is not just fine, but actually great and impactful, it'll do well enough.

[The Dark Alfred]

29 minutes ago, FunkMiller said:

 

I'm more pessimistic about Oppenheimer than most around here - which is a bit surprising as I am an annoying Nolan stan. I don't think the subject matter is exciting or compelling enough to sustain that good a box office haul. Three hours is a long time to spend on the Manhattan Project, and I think a lot of the WOM will be 'it's Nolan so it's good, but wait for streaming'.

 

Nolan is a brand of his own. Nolan summer release + IMAX = box office. I think OPPENHEIMER wil open close to or even better than INTERSTELLAR/DUNKIRK.

Edited July 1, 2023 by The Dark Alfred

[CJohn]

Indiana Jones tanked and holdhovers died. Another great weekend at the box office.