Steve Rogers Birthday Bash Weekend Thread | 5-Day #s: Indy 83.4, Elemental 18, Spidey 17.65, Sound of Freedom 14.2, No Hard Feelings 11.3

[Napoleon]

1 hour ago, ZattMurdock said:

What if neither Mission: Impossible, Barbie or Oppenheimer don’t "save the summer" at all?

It's my most anticipated movie of the year, and I'm pretty confident in its quality, considering how much I loved the previous two, but I have a feeling M:I7 will be seen as a disappointment. Looking at the budget number, and expectations of an increase thanks to Top Gun Maverick, I just feel like it will be seen as an underperformance, as I think there's a very high chance it drops from Fallout. And I wouldn't rule out a significant drop, like $600m worldwide. The marketing makes it seem kinda derivative, and in a year when audiences are rejecting franchises that aren't offering something special and unique, that's concerning. I also don't expect it to be better than Fallout, as that movie was already so great, so it also won't help that reviews won't be calling it an improvement or the best in the series. 

[wildphantom]

18 minutes ago, MeMyselfAndI said:

 

MI7 has two things against it: too long and part 1.

 

Barbie is the only movie I really want to see this summer. Short and sweet.

 

Oppenheimer, well, would prefer to watch this movie on streaming rather then spending over 3 hours(!) at the cinema. Preposterous.

 

Barbie would be firmly last out of the three in terms of priority to see personally. I’ll be there opening day though.
 

That’s why tastes and opinions are awesome. There’s been way too many cast iron ‘facts’ being thrown around by some here lately as to how people should think about particular films. ‘Seven out of ten polled under 30 liked Dial of Destiny, which means all youngsters don’t like it’. 
 

I do see its value in audiences determining what to see to some degree though. Doom articles written off the back of social media trends are the worst culprits.  Youngsters are more connected to that shit, where as older audiences are the total opposite in terms of being dictated to. 
 

The ‘it’s either good or it’s bad culture’ of the youth today is a real shame.  Saddens me quite a bit.  I wonder what I might have made of aggregate scores as a way of looking at a film’s quality if I had the same tech when I was younger.  
 

‘If it’s under 70 it’s not good’. Sigh 

Edited July 3, 2023 by wildphantom

[ZattMurdock]

28 minutes ago, DAJK said:

The thing studios need to realize is that nostalgia should be a tool, not a crux.

I agree with this. Haven’t seeing Indiana Jones but with the confidence of having a lot of critics and people I trust that did enjoy it, I would say that ironically enough maybe nostalgia was indeed a tool used right on this one and I’m glad that the film exists.

 

I’ve seen a lot of people I trust and respect with film takes (Richard Newbly comes to mind) saying they should have just different actors to play Indiana Jones while younger with Harrison doing the parts that he’s old and I kinda think that’s totally missing the point.
 

Yes Indiana Jones could be about swashbuckling adventures of an archeologist turned action hero where the wish fulfillment is to have the power fantasy of pulling all those stunts. I kinda disagree with that because I’ve always seen Indy as an incredibly flawed character more and unlikely hero more than anything else, but what if they actually wanted to tell the story of this flawed hero at the end of the line? Using tech to achieve that is just a tool, and at this point I don’t bother with cgi as long as doesn’t use dead people. I find it beautiful to have this ‘final’ story, that unlike Logan it’s truly final because Ford can’t live forever. Maybe I will hate the film, but in concept, Ford being back one last time rings a lot more true to me than Logan ever did. 

Edited July 3, 2023 by ZattMurdock

[Borobudur]

Up by 353k!

5

(5)

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

Paramount Pi…

$7,353,892

-37%

2,852

-671

$2,579

$136,464,247

4

[KP1025]

Elemental went up by over $800,000 with actuals.

 

2

(2)

Elemental

Walt Disney

$12,128,492

-34%

3,650

-385

$3,323

$89,607,297

3

[Borobudur]

Sunday was underestimated by $1m but offset by overestimation for Fri + Sat. 

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days
Jun 29, 2023	P	$7,200,000		4,500	$1,600	$7,200,000
Jun 30, 2023	1	$23,682,998		4,600	$5,148	$23,682,998	1
Jul 1, 2023	1	$18,584,093	-22%	4,600	$4,040	$42,267,091	2
Jul 2, 2023	1	$18,101,010	-3%	4,600	$3,935	$60,368,101	3

[upriser7]

Elemental's Sunday was actually 3% higher than Saturday. It also did have a weak Saturday increase of just 22% from Friday

[Mr Terrific]

GOTG v3 will hit 3x domestic multiplier today. 
Nice.  
 

Edited July 3, 2023 by Mr Terrific

[Valonqar]

1 hour ago, Mojoguy said:

Next weekend is deadlier than dead with Insidious 47 and female comedy coming out.

 

But zero competation might not actually help Indy, Flash still dropped 72% against JLaw comedy.

 

Time for AtSV to take #1 again. 

 

 

[baumer]

It's nice to see all movies not only survive the studios analysis and prognostication of soft Sunday drops but actually increase from there already optimistic numbers.

[ZattMurdock]

5 minutes ago, Mr Terrific said:

GOTG v3 will hit 3x domestic multiplier today. 
Nice.  
 

Superhero fatigue though

[Mr Terrific]

2 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Superhero fatigue though

I’m greedy. I’m excited for what’s announced and am still thinking what about Alpha Flight? Squadron Supreme? 
I want Uni or Paramount to get rights to the Badger and The Elementals. 
Shoot up my nerd veins, Hollywood. 

[Ledmonkey96]

Disney doing surprisingly decent with 4 movies in the top 10 (Indy (kind of a bomb), Elemental (Bomb that might leg it out to not being a bomb?), Little mermaid (Close enough to theatrical break even when assuming 50/40/25 dom/OS/China split that it'll likely make it over), GOTG 3 (a success)) and then Boogeyman in 11th which probably won't make a theatrical profit but it's legs makes me think it'll do good on streaming.....

 

Actually looking at legs Boogeyman (3.33), GotG 3 (Should be around 3.0 after today), Elemental (3.03) are all pretty good, The Little Mermaid is currently at 2.94 and i can't see it missing the 6.5~mil it needs to hit 3.0.

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, Mr Terrific said:

I’m greedy. I’m excited for what’s announced and am still thinking what about Alpha Flight? Squadron Supreme? 
I want Uni or Paramount to get rights to the Badger and The Elementals. 
Shoot up my nerd veins, Hollywood. 

Give me The Terrifics, James Gunn!!

[baumer]

I don't follow tracking anymore so can someone tell me what insidious is tracking to open at? If I recall correctly the last one still opened above 20 million. Is there any reason to think this one won't?

[KP1025]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

I don't follow tracking anymore so can someone tell me what insidious is tracking to open at? If I recall correctly the last one still opened above 20 million. Is there any reason to think this one won't?

 

Box Office Pro has the OW range at $20-29 million.

[Eric S'ennui]

28 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

It's my most anticipated movie of the year, and I'm pretty confident in its quality, considering how much I loved the previous two, but I have a feeling M:I7 will be seen as a disappointment. Looking at the budget number, and expectations of an increase thanks to Top Gun Maverick, I just feel like it will be seen as an underperformance, as I think there's a very high chance it drops from Fallout. And I wouldn't rule out a significant drop, like $600m worldwide. The marketing makes it seem kinda derivative, and in a year when audiences are rejecting franchises that aren't offering something special and unique, that's concerning. I also don't expect it to be better than Fallout, as that movie was already so great, so it also won't help that reviews won't be calling it an improvement or the best in the series. 

I saw the trailer today in front of Indy. I've already been pretty down on this movie, at least compared to the sky-high "TGM will boost it" predictions, but this really doesn't seem to have much new to offer. I like Mission: Impossible a lot, but the trailers just make this look like the same old same old. What exactly is the hook here outside of "it's another Mission: Impossible"?

 

It's also something I brought up in the tracking thread a while back, but I think it also doesn't help that this is the kind of movie where its main audience is old white guys, and they don't go to theaters much anymore. It says a lot that the new Transformers, which is also being hit by franchise fatigue and crappy predecessors, opened higher than the new Indiana Jones and Flash without the benefits of a holiday weekend boosting its opening.

[Mr Terrific]

14 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Give me The Terrifics, James Gunn!!

I need to check that out. 

[Jake Gittes]

1 hour ago, MrPink said:

someone say mad men? @Jake Gittes

 

Indiana Jones would be a hit if it had a scene of him turning off Tomorrow Never Knows

[ZattMurdock]

I have a hot take about Indiana Jones and it’s budget that I don’t believe anyone brought it up. Comparing on location filming costs from the early 80s to 2023 is uneducated at best and bad faith at worse. Crystal Skull had a tight schedule and was filmed only in the US, with a budget of 185m iirc. Dial of Destiny was filmed through 3 years and across 6 countries. 
 

People talk a lot about not wanting The Volume used a lot, but beyond the ballooned budget thanks to a global pandemic - which I suspect delayed filming and increased costs a lot more than Harrison Ford’s injuries - the end result that we will get from this is a lot more of green screen going wild and solutions like Mandalorian’s The Volume. So… yay? Lol.