Weekend Thread | July 7-9 | Weekend Estimates on Page 32

[CJohn]

I would like to remind everyone that Transformers would easily do 1B a decade ago. It was also doing 245M+ for every movie like if it was easy. No, Rise of the Beasts is not salvagable nor put the franchise in a good place. Also, Paramount can't just cut 50M from the budget like that. These movies need to look big.

[Mulder]

Wait is Flash out of the Top 10 already? Good god what a disaster. In contrast Indy's high budget and bad international look is going to doom it, but the legs look alright. We'll see how it fares against Mission Impossible but if it survives that and Oppenheimer, domestically it'll be ok.

[Fanboy]

54 minutes ago, baumer said:

No I'm not saying the next Transformers is going to blow up the way the dark Knight did but I honestly believe that if they brought Michael Bay back as director, Shia LaBeouf and Megan Fox and some of the other original cast members, get it well done script and I think based on the fact that people seem to like this new one, the next chapter could see Transformers back to its Glory days.

I don’t see any of that happening tbh. Shia Labeouf is avoiding mainstream movies like the plague and has had a few controversies surrounding him lately that would make him a small liability to cast in something like this, Megan Fox has publicly stated her disdain for how she was sexualised in the Bay movies and a lot of people believe she was fired from the franchise because of this. Even if both her and Bay come back and say it’s not true it is still kind of a bad look because a lot of people agree it was distasteful. 
 

Bay has also had a lot of internet backlash which was prevalent more than a decade ago but is much much bigger now. People pay a lot of attention to RT scores, and I just don’t think a movie with Revenge of the Fallen-esque reviews can have a record opening anymore. If reviews were more mixed to positive like the first film I guess it could be better but probably not enough to create a comeback narrative unless the audience who see it opening weekend rave about it and it gets great word of mouth. I think there is also something about the Bay movies that screams naughties culture and I don’t think there is enough nostalgia for that era yet nor do I think it will ever reach the level of 80s nostalgia. Bayformers was very much a product of its time which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. That’s how it went from being what on paper seemed like a toy commercial movie into one of the biggest blockbuster franchises of all time which was very impressive. 

[ListenHunnyUrOver]

They should’ve released Ruby Gillman the same weekend as TLM. They might’ve gotten some conservative rage baiters to spend money to see it. 

Edited July 8, 2023 by ListenHunnyUrOver

[The GOAT]

Theaters around me are selling tickets to UFC 290 for $25 a pop.

Is this the future? If so, I can't wait to watch Logan Paul vs McLovin' on a 100 ft screen with laser projection

[XXR & Friends]

7 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

Theaters around me are selling tickets to UFC 290 for $25 a pop.

Is this the future? If so, I can't wait to watch Logan Paul vs McLovin' on a 100 ft screen with laser projection

 

Idk about the future since it has been a thing for a long time, but it's something.  

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

Oppenheimer + Barbie tracking has been great these last few days, how likely do you guys think it is that they both combine for $200m+ on that weekend?

[ListenHunnyUrOver]

Just now, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

Oppenheimer + Barbie tracking has been great these last few days, how likely do you guys think it is that they both combine for $200m+ on that weekend?

I’m thinking it’ll be close to 150m

[XXR & Friends]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

Oppenheimer + Barbie tracking has been great these last few days, how likely do you guys think it is that they both combine for $200m+ on that weekend?

 

I don't think it's likely at all. 150 yes, 200 no. 

[Elden Lord]

2 hours ago, DisposedData said:

I'm shocked that Trasnformers is going to beat Fast X. Seems like Transformers is at least more salvageable stateside than F&F.

 

So what happened with Fast X? I have never been a fan of the franchise, but I know it has done huge numbers in the past. Has it just hit the wall?

Edited July 9, 2023 by Elden Lord

[XXR & Friends]

1 minute ago, Elden Lord said:

 

So what happened with Fast X? I have never been a fan of the franchise, but I know it has done huge numbers. Has it just hit the wall?

Domestically it has, but it's still fairly large overall as it managed to hit $720M+

[LegionWrex]

4 minutes ago, XXR Electric Touch said:

Domestically it has, but it's still fairly large overall as it managed to hit $720M+

No surprise there. Seems like it's still an international powerhouse to some extent. Wouldn't be surprised if the tank is running out of steam there soon as well but for now it looks like it's going to be fine.

[PrinceRico]

9 minutes ago, Elden Lord said:

 

So what happened with Fast X? I have never been a fan of the franchise, but I know it has done huge numbers in the past. Has it just hit the wall?

I mean it’s at 720 WW so no. We are just in a different era when it comes to box office. 

Edited July 9, 2023 by PrinceRico

[Elden Lord]

Just now, PrinceRico said:

I mean it’s at 720 WW so no

 Well, yes.. 720 WW is nothing to sneeze at for sure, especially looking at it by itself. In the context of the rest of the franchise, there have been some that have been over a billion WW, with at least 1 (possibly 2 maybe?) that have hit a billion internationally alone? Now I know that numbers like that are impossible to maintain, just seems like it isn't the power house it was 5/6 years ago... Just wondering if they are finally running out of gas (ugh).. I personally never saw the appeal, Vin Diesel is hit and miss for me in his movies. I know there is some drama between a few of the actors. Just wondering if we are seeing the franchise starting to ride off into the sunset.. Especially with the budget on this last one being reported at $340 million and it looking like the theatrical run might not cover the budget+ marketing... 

 

[baumer]

I think the fast and furious franchise has just jumped the shark now. When they were making more than a billion dollars per film they were still ridiculous films that defied every law of gravity and common sense and yet we all flocked to them because they were still pretty fun.

 

I think with Paul Walker being gone, people dying and then coming back to life and just wear and tear over 20 years of movies, it's just caused the deterioration that we see at least in North america.

 

I personally don't like the invincibility of dom. I don't like that he can catch people in mid-air, knows intelligence, computers, how to get to space, he's probably a world-class chef, knows everything about ammunition and guns and combat and of course he's invincible behind the wheel of a car.

 

All this might just sound really silly and inconsequential but I think when you just add it all up, the series is just run its course.

[M37]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

Oppenheimer + Barbie tracking has been great these last few days, how likely do you guys think it is that they both combine for $200m+ on that weekend?

 

Around ~$150M is the range, could see higher, but even if the demand existed for that level of combined OW, there probably won’t be show supply to meet it. Too many other releases, even on moderate level, taking up space - not like an MCU tentpole where the path clears in advance 

[MovieMan89]

Admittedly, Transformers did far better than I thought it could without spectacular WOM, but yeah it’s still not good news for the franchise. You can’t cut the budget of these any further and this isn’t even turning profit on the budget as it is. 

[MovieMan89]

Also, I am IN on 200+ for Barbie + Opp OW, and that’s even if Opp only does like mid to high 30s. 

[rebelscum86]

1 hour ago, Elden Lord said:

 

So what happened with Fast X? I have never been a fan of the franchise, but I know it has done huge numbers in the past. Has it just hit the wall?

 

Didn't it lose the Rock? And wasn't it his addittion that exploded the franchise?

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

31 minutes ago, rebelscum86 said:

 

Didn't it lose the Rock? And wasn't it his addittion that exploded the franchise?

The Rock wasn't in F9 and it made $170M domestic in the fall of 2021. Too many people in this market just think the series has jumped the shark:

 

The replies and quotes to that tweet tell the story. There's a lot of love for the series but a lot of F&F fans have tapped out.