Weekday numbers July 10-13

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, across the Jat verse said:

optimistically $9M WED.

8.5

4.1

2.5

2.2

[ZattMurdock]

5 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Why are you putting words in my mouth after speculating a hypothetical theory out loud based out of personal opinion

I’m just saying that we live in an world where stupid shit like "superhero fatigue",and "Marvel fatigue" are used as real arguments, despite their numbers at the box office. Do you really want to coin yet another dumb clickbait moviegoing trend like "Part 1 fatigue"? Why would you want to unleash this evil upon us? And if you can’t tell, I’m messing with you.

 

Seriously though, there is no "Part 1 fatigue". The problem is very much what was already pointed out itt, meaning,  20 years franchise with an aged target audience that would much rather watch Extraction 2 and John Wick 4 that just came out to watch at home and wait to do just that for MI7 too.

 

Cmasterclay made a very good point that funding fresh original films with a diverse cast like Nope! is a gold mine that Hollywood has yet to explore. With that said, you don’t find a Peele or a Coogler everyday.

[Roxanne]

13 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret. also has an "A" Cinemascore. I don't think that's gonna save this one...

And that movie had 3x legs when it was getting pulled from a third of its locations by weekend 3. It'll be fine. This has a roadblock second weekend for sure but after that it'll play out how all of these movies play out.

Edited July 13, 2023 by Roxanne

[baumer]

As I said Earlier, this is very well could be reminiscent of Shrek part 2 in 2004. 

 

Wed: 11.7 mill

Thurs: 9.1 (-22%)

 

Forum reaction: Disaster! DreamWorks sucks! Shrek was a one hit wonder! Love live the king (Pixar)

 

Friday : 28.3 (209%) 

Saturday: 44.7 (58%)

Sunday: 34.9 (-22%)

 

Forums reaction: Crickets

 

I'm not saying mission Impossible is going to have those kinds of ridiculous increases on Friday and Saturday but the pattern is at least identical. Well almost identical. A blockbuster opens up during the week when an older skewing film has a lot of its audience still working. Let's see what happens on Friday and saturday. Let's see what kind of increases mission Impossible has before we bury it.

 

I realize these two films opened up in a completely different time of the year, one in May 1 in July and like I said, I'm not saying these insane increases are going to happen this weekend but it's at least possible that the audience that this is playing for will come out for it in large numbers this weekend.

[baumer]

 

 

[lab276]

3 minutes ago, baumer said:

As I said Earlier, this is very well could be reminiscent of Shrek part 2 in 2004. 

 

Wed: 11.7 mill

Thurs: 9.1 (-22%)

 

Forum reaction: Disaster! DreamWorks sucks! Shrek was a one hit wonder! Love live the king (Pixar)

 

Friday : 28.3 (209%) 

Saturday: 44.7 (58%)

Sunday: 34.9 (-22%)

 

Forums reaction: Crickets

 

I'm not saying mission Impossible is going to have those kinds of ridiculous increases on Friday and Saturday but the pattern is at least identical. Well almost identical. A blockbuster opens up during the week when an older skewing film has a lot of its audience still working. Let's see what happens on Friday and saturday. Let's see what kind of increases mission Impossible has before we bury it.

 

I'd be wary about using Shrek 2 as a comp tbh, that was a basically unique run. Remember when Kung Fu Panda 2 disappointed on it's OD and then only kept disappointing over the rest of its run? Shrek 2 was specifically brought up in that case because it was a Dreamworks sequel to a popular first film, and IIRC there were similar release date shenanigans that were likely to confuse irregular cinemagoers.

 

Not to say this is how it will turn out though, I agree with wait and see.

[CJohn]

20 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

 

He also said MI was gonna open with 100M+. Dismiss him.

[CJohn]

38 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

8.5

4.1

2.5

2.2

This is embarassing.

[baumer]

15 minutes ago, lab276 said:

 

I'd be wary about using Shrek 2 as a comp tbh, that was a basically unique run. Remember when Kung Fu Panda 2 disappointed on it's OD and then only kept disappointing over the rest of its run? Shrek 2 was specifically brought up in that case because it was a Dreamworks sequel to a popular first film, and IIRC there were similar release date shenanigans that were likely to confuse irregular cinemagoers.

 

Not to say this is how it will turn out though, I agree with wait and see.

 

I'm not really trying to use it as a comp I'm just saying there could be some sort of a similar situation. Shrek 2 although animation still had to have parents bring their kids out to see it which means it opened softly. Mission Impossible is an older skewing film which means a lot of adults are working during the week. There's no way I'm suggesting it's going to increase 200% on Friday and 58% on saturday. I'm simply stating that there is precedent to suggest that it could have large increases Friday and saturday.

[CJohn]

I am guessing this ends up at around 500-600M WW? Thunderous drop from Fallout.

[lab276]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

Just to clarify - it's a huge problem for the traditional adult films that we think of directed by our Martin Scorsese and starring our Tom Cruises. I think the box office of a film like Nope proves there is a real audience for intelligent, challenging adult movies with more diverse casts and crews. I think the solution to what ails the box office is for studios to make major investments in big concept, real adult movies to serve the audience that is, not that was. That should be the lesson that is taken away. Ah, who am I kidding, are you seeing how dumb these fucking studios are?

 

It's interesting you bring up Nope as a movie to be emulated. I'm sort of out of the loop with DOM box office, I've been following basically just what's happening in Australia since the pandemic, and in Australia Nope did pretty mediocre business tbh. Compare how the following films did:

 

AUS vs DOM

Nope 4.96m vs 123.28m

DC League of Super-Pets 18.67m vs 93.66m

Ticket to Paradise 16.17m vs 68.2

 

Using the 10x multi rule for box office in Australia, it's like if Nope made less than 50m vs 180m and 161m for the other two respectively.

 

America and Australia are in many ways similar countries, so what accounts for this wild variance in taste for these movies? Animated films are clearly doing much better in Australia and star power matters more, but why?

Edited July 13, 2023 by lab276

[baumer]

4 minutes ago, CJohn said:

This is embarassing.

 

Stroudenfreudel

[lab276]

2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I am guessing this ends up at around 500-600M WW? Thunderous drop from Fallout.

 

That would be pretty good IMO.

[emoviefan]

4 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

What is this?

I swear this forum needs to be nuked. Its the only way to be safe.  I mean people just ignoring that we are talking about a 163 minute long movie that plays to a audience that is working during the week and has never been in a rush to see these movies in the past so why would they start now. Oh right barbenheimer.  

[Souther]

22 minutes ago, CJohn said:

This is embarassing.

What are these numbers?

[The GOAT]

23 minutes ago, CJohn said:

He also said MI was gonna open with 100M+. Dismiss him.

One might assume that he’s not a industry insider, but an industry plant

[pryda]

Hello,

 

Before we go into details... Lets agree that most of us here (if not all) wants a Box Office

Alive and Kicking! Spectacular runs, lots of smashed records... you name it.

But in reality a real magic called Top Gun Maverick happens very rarely.

It does not matter how much money MI7 will make.Tom Cruise has to ask himself „ Why we have to keep milking this cow”? I am his HUGE fan for Years and despite having embarrassment efforts like Mummy reboot, remake, whatever... there's hardly another Hollywood modern star that comes even close to him.

So why Tom?

Other stars are not immune to act similar way. John Wick XX anybody? I mean seriously!?

Keanu look what they did with Point Break... pardon Fast and the Furious!

Perhaps, even a proper Speed (2) remake, reboot, whatever the effort called (sorry Sandra and Mr.Patrick).All would be forgotten, Keanu stop , just stop please.

Yes, I know i might hurt somebodys feelings by writing some of the above, but that's why you have forums in the first place, to exchange opinions I guess...

[MattW]

It is weird. I don't think it's overly optimistic to expect m:i7 to at the very least retain Fallout's audience (meaning fallout gross +inflation) on the strength of the franchise so far, the movie's own merits, and also TG2 reinforcing the idea of a tom cruise action movie being a fun time at the theater. It's early though, we'll see. 

[pryda]

On a different note, a little gem found in No Hard Feelings

 

A clasicc Daryl Hall and John Oates piece, done obviously a bit different

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NxuRJM3cC_c&ab_channel=RoummelDomingo

 

[SchumacherFTW]

I have always believed making this Mission Impossible a part 1 in the marketing was a bad move