Weekday numbers July 10-13

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Alot of doom and gloom takes about Elemental and Pixar already look well outdated as Elemental will eventually land above $400M

And people can’t even say it’s easy after this summer lol 

 

Elemental +400M and Elio +500M here we goooo 

 

I still hope they will change the date tho 

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

And people can’t even say it’s easy after this summer lol 

 

Elemental +400M and Elio +500M here we goooo 

 

I still hope they will change the date tho 

honestly I hope the bar is raised further for Elio.

 

Mainly because I have the dignity of my clubs riding on it.

[Valonqar]

5 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Alot of doom and gloom takes about Elemental and Pixar already look well outdated as Elemental will eventually land above $400M

 

Lots of doom and gloom isn't in a vacuum unlike #ElementalSweep because doomers and gloomers take the budget into consideration. $200M budget needs 500M to break even but feel free to celebrate losing less money than expected. TLM all over again. I get that love for Disney twists some fans into a pretzel when trying to spin non-success into success but it's getting tiresome. 

Edited July 13, 2023 by Valonqar

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Just now, Valonqar said:

 

Lots of doom and gloom isn't in a vacuum unlike #ElementalSweep because dommers and gloomers take the budget into consideration. $200M budget needs 500M to break even but feel free to celebrate losing less money than expected. TLM all over again. I get that love for Disney twists some fans into a pretzel when trying to spin non-success into success but it's getting tiresome. 

The whole point is that Pixar needed a movie to show it can make money at the Box Office which this one is doing despite the terrible OW. No one here is saying it's a triumph but it's a good first step in Pixar's return to theatrical releases and original films which btw no other studio has had success in let alone original animated fare.

 

Will be interesting to see how Migration does for Illumination.

[ThomasNicole]

12 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

Lots of doom and gloom isn't in a vacuum unlike #ElementalSweep because dommers and gloomers take budget into consideration. $200M budget needs 500M to break even but feel free to celebrate losing less money than expected. TLM all over again. I get that love for Disney twists some fans into a pretzel when trying to spin non-success into success but it's getting tiresome. 

I love that you said all of this acting like you know the truth and is in the high ground while we’re all a bunch of stupid people that don’t know anything lol 

 

You’re telling me ~450M is not profitable for a 200M budget? No shit, who could’ve imagine. The Elemental Sweep is such an obvious joke that is baffling that you’re using it as serious counterpoint.

 

Everyone knows this will turn into a profitable movie only after PVOD etc and it’s far from ideal, but yeah we celebrate a great run when we see one 

 

Elemental run in SK is the most interesting case box office wise of the year so far, the stability on US is one of the strongest ever for animations in the summer, the movie is managing to grow on the 2nd and 3rd weekend in a lot of countries. 
 

Just because something isn’t doing what it should to be actually wildly successful doesn’t mean we have to ignore the things that is good and surprising to see (or do you expected a movie that opened with 40M semi-globally to eventually ended up being one of the biggest grossers of the summer?) 

 

We know about the budget we just don’t keep beating this horse all the time to minimize a good run, because that’s a boring and soulless way to engage with things. 

 

 

Edited July 13, 2023 by ThomasNicole

[Valonqar]

4 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

The whole point is that Pixar needed a movie to show it can make money at the Box Office which this one is doing despite the terrible OW. No one here is saying it's a triumph but it's a good first step in Pixar's return to theatrical releases and original films which btw no other studio has had success in let alone original animated fare.

 

Will be interesting to see how Migration does for Illumination.

 

How is it making money on that budget? It isn't. It needed OW and WOM. It only got WOM on a low OW and it isn't exactly Avatar/Titanic run with 0.7% drops every week either. There's a lot of exaggeration going on about this run to fit the narrative Pixar fans want to push. 

[ListenHunnyUrOver]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

 

How is it making money on that budget? It isn't. It needed OW and WOM. It only got WOM on a low OW and it isn't exactly Avatar/Titanic run with 0.7% drops every week either. There's a lot of exaggeration going on about this run to fit the narrative Pixar fans want to push. 

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

Accounting for ancillaries Elemental grossing $450m theatrically will probably make more at the end of the day than many other movies would at theatrical break even.

 

For example suppose Oppenheimer just breaks even (just using this as an example, personally I think Oppy will easily make a big profit theatrically), I doubt its ancillaries will come close to what Elemental will make. Do you think kids will be buying Cillian Murphy action figures and Fat Man lunchboxes?

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

Accounting for ancillaries Elemental grossing $450m theatrically will probably make more at the end of the day than many other movies would at theatrical break even.

 

For example suppose Oppenheimer just breaks even (just using this as an example, personally I think Oppy will easily make a big profit theatrically), I doubt its ancillaries will come close to what Elemental will make. Do you think kids will be buying Cillian Murphy action figures and Fat Man lunchboxes?

 

Merchandise is not as cut and dry, though, especially for Disney.  It keep a lot of merchandise risk/reward in house (vs licensing) with all its theme parks and their merchandise sales.  So, if it has a bomb movie, it can be forced to eat the losses on unsellable produced merchandise and not just gain from the licensing of it to 3rd parties...

 

I mean, I imagine direct Lightyear "stuff" was not a merchandise money maker last year, when you put in house vs licensing together...

[Valonqar]

7 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

Accounting for ancillaries Elemental grossing $450m theatrically will probably make more at the end of the day than many other movies would at theatrical break even.

 

For example suppose Oppenheimer just breaks even (just using this as an example, personally I think Oppy will easily make a big profit theatrically), I doubt its ancillaries will come close to what Elemental will make. Do you think kids will be buying Cillian Murphy action figures and Fat Man lunchboxes?

 

Ah yes ancilliaries excuse. Movie is tanking but but toys and streaming and what not. It doesn't change the fact that expensive movies that overstimated theatrical demand disappointed at the boxoffice. Cameron said AWOW needed 2B to make money and it made 2.3B so no one needed muh toys muh ancilliaries excuse to make that massive success look like success. It's an undisputed massive success. Muh ancilliary disappointments such as TLM and Elemental remain unprofitable boxoffice no matter how many toys they sell and how many weeks they top streaming chart. Lets not mix apples and oranges. A movie can be profitable overall cause of non-boxoffice shit and still be called a boxoffice underperformer cause it legit underperformed at the boxoffice. 

Edited July 13, 2023 by Valonqar

[M37]

38 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

I posted this in the Telegram chat. I don't know how truly informative it is, since it extrapolates from historically poor comparisons, but this is the closest I can find.

So the closest comparisons I was able to look up for a big post-July 4th 5-day opening weekend are Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, and Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince. Which, well, are completely inept comparisons, because 1) Harry Potter is a historically frontloaded franchise, and 2) these were midnight numbers in 2007 and 2009 respectively, long before the mid-day inflation-adjusted preview numbers of 2023.

 

Having said that, if we were to look at the Internal Multipliers of these two films - well, Half-Blood Prince seems INSANELY unlikely to follow, since it had a 7.12 IM from Wed-to-Sun, opening to 22.2m midnights and a 158m 5-day, which would be a 49.84m 5-day for MI7. This is, as I said, extremely unlikely lol.

 

Order of the Phoenix has a more sensible 11.64 IM, so:

MI7 with Order of the Phoenix's 5-day 11.64 IM - 7x11.64 = 81.48m OW (discarding 2.5m from EA) - outtracking Fallout's first Fri-to-Tue by 5.1%

 

Assuming that a 11.64 IM is too high and opting for the halfway point between OotP and HBP, a 9.38 IM:

7x9.38 = 65.66m OW (discarding 2.5m from EA) - undertracking Fallout's first 5 days by -15,3%

 

This would be a disappointing number, yes. So I would like to invite conversation and ask the bigger numbers experts which one is likelier to be followed lol. But I do think that. with the historic of the MI franchise, OotP number is likelier even than the halfway point.

This is like 10 pages back (y’all were chatty overnight), but similar to your lower range 

 

Wont be surprised if it’s too low, but in that same range, way lower than anticipated 

 

 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

9 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

How is it making money on that budget? It isn't. It needed OW and WOM. It only got WOM on a low OW and it isn't exactly Avatar/Titanic run with 0.7% drops every week either. There's a lot of exaggeration going on about this run to fit the narrative Pixar fans want to push. 

Can you point to where I said anything to do with budget? I merely mentioned that the movie is making money I never said anything about it breaking even at the box office

 

Past couple of weeks must have been rough here for you whenever someone mentioned Elemental's legs.

[ThomasNicole]

15 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

How is it making money on that budget? It isn't. It needed OW and WOM. It only got WOM on a low OW and it isn't exactly Avatar/Titanic run with 0.7% drops every week either. There's a lot of exaggeration going on about this run to fit the narrative Pixar fans want to push. 

Losing little money enough that can be compensate at PVOD instead of being the biggest fiasco in the history of the studio like it was expected after the OW is more than enough proof Pixar still can make money especially after a pandemic and a strike of streaming releases lol. It’s still not enough but definitely a good and relevant sign, like it or not.

 

Is a similar case of The Northman that lose a little money theatrically but less than expected and ended up gaining money after all with other sales. Eggers move from a director that could needed to go back to small budgets discourse to a director that is actually doing another quite big movie for the same studio.

 

Is not very hard to see where the celebration is coming from and i’m sorry if it’s annoying to you because it’s about to enter in the media discourse as well with many articles already starting to praise the run and how it’s a beginning of turning the lucky for Pixar, so idk, get ready. 
 

You can keep saying is not objectively a success all you want and no one will disagreed because it’s true and we all know that, you’re not spreading the gospel here, but none of this change the context of what we’re celebrating tho.

Edited July 13, 2023 by ThomasNicole

[Valonqar]

1 minute ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Can you point to where I said anything to do with budget? I merely mentioned that the movie is making money I never said anything about it breaking even at the box office

 

Past couple of weeks must have been rough here for you whenever someone mentioned Elemental's legs.

 

You are joking right? You do understand that a movie that costs 200M to make must make 500M to only break even which isn't making money it's just returning investment. Only after breakeven point it makes money. Elemental is not making money yet. It needs to make 500M first and then make money. Budget is everything. That's why its holds after low opening aren't amounting to much and like I said it isn't holding like Titanic/Avatar either far from it. 

[Eric Prime]

Moderation

 

Not doing this “is Elemental a hit actually” stuff. Too early in the morning for this, and we all know it won’t lead to anything productive. If you really want to argue this, you can do it in the Elemental thread

[ThomasNicole]

Imagine comparing the great legs of a movie in the summer with not only movies from December (the leggiest period of the year anyway), but 2 of the leggiest monsters of all time 

 

And we’re the delusional ones with our absurd takes of context haha

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

 

 

12 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

Ah yes ancilliaries excuse. Movie is tanking but but toys and streaming and what not. It doesn't change the fact that expensive movies that overstimated theatrical demand disappointed at the boxoffice. Cameon said AWOW needed 2B to make money and it made 2.3B so no one needed muh toys muh ancilliaries excuse to make that massive success look like success. It's an undisputed massive success. Muh ancilliary disappointments such as TLM and Elemental remain unprofitable boxoffice no matter how many toys they sell and how many weeks they top streaming chart. Lets not mix apples and oranges. A movie can be profitable overall cause of non-boxoffice shit and still be called a boxoffice underperformer cause it legit underperformed at the boxoffice. 

I didn't say it wasn't a box office underperformer (though theatrical breakeven is still possible), this is a box office forum after all. It seems bizarre to me though how high the standards people have put on this movie theatrically. Unlike TLM which I'm sure disney wanted to hit a billion I doubt expectations were that high for Elemental. Months before it came out there were articles calling it one of the biggest bombs of all time in the making and that opinion did not change after that horrible OW. Ultimately making a profit after the back end is accounted for is probably the best Disney could have hoped for to revive audience interest in Pixar movies after leaving them to die on D+ for years.

 

Edit: Just read the mod post so will be exiting this discussion now

Edited July 13, 2023 by IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son

[Valonqar]

7 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Losing little money enough that can be compensate at PVOD instead of being the biggest fiasco in the history

 

Losing money is losing money. It isn't success. It won't be super bomb but it won't make theatrical money either. I don't get what controversy is. It's not a boxoffice success. It may be streaming one and toys one but it isn't a boxoffice one. Eveyrone knows that. Everyone in the industry knows that. Muh South Korea legs are cute but they won't make it profitable from theater. 

 

EDIT: Just saw Mod post. No more talk about this.

Edited July 13, 2023 by Valonqar

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, Eric Stickell said:

Moderation

 

Not doing this “is Elemental a hit actually” stuff. Too early in the morning for this, and we all know it won’t lead to anything productive. If you really want to argue this, you can do it in the Elemental thread

Just saw it, posted first. Noted.

[MightyDargon]

Meh, this thread was a lot more fun when people thought it would be a good idea to LEEEROOYY JENKINS GOTG3 vs. Mario.