Weekday numbers July 10-13

[Eric S'ennui]

11 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

That’s just it. You’d think plenty of people who hadn’t seen the Missions would have gone back and watched them in the past year, because of TGM.  I’m sure Cruise’s entire back catalogue has done really well with new audiences discovering his films thanks to that movie. 

I mean...no? Not everybody will drop everything to see movies another actor was in just because they saw another movie they liked. Time is short and new movies are coming out on a weekly basis. Did you think when people saw the Aladdin remake, they were like, "man oh man, I just have to watch Hitch and Men in Black 2 again?" Maybe a couple did something like that, but I don't think it was a huge audience.

[titanic2187]

2 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

Do the halo jump at the Paris Olympics, $1.1B guaranteed for DR2. 

Do the top Gun and Mission impossible crossover! Maverick is secretly a twin of Ethan. 

[Hiccup23]

15 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

The budget couldn't be helped, they started in 2020 then had to shut down due to the pandemic then restarted again and that increases the budget, it wasn't greenlit that high. 

 

 

 

Ohhh that makes sense. Thanks for clarifying!  

[eeetooki]

Definitely a lot of MI7 marketing in China right now. LOL there's this small interactive game on this Chinese Craigslist equivalent app.

[wildphantom]

7 minutes ago, Eric Stickell said:

I mean...no? Not everybody will drop everything to see movies another actor was in just because they saw another movie they liked. Time is short and new movies are coming out on a weekly basis. Did you think when people saw the Aladdin remake, they were like, "man oh man, I just have to watch Hitch and Men in Black 2 again?" Maybe a couple did something like that, but I don't think it was a huge audience.

I just expected it to give it a bit of a bump, that’s all. 

[DAJK]

8 minutes ago, Eric Stickell said:

I mean...no? Not everybody will drop everything to see movies another actor was in just because they saw another movie they liked. Time is short and new movies are coming out on a weekly basis. Did you think when people saw the Aladdin remake, they were like, "man oh man, I just have to watch Hitch and Men in Black 2 again?" Maybe a couple did something like that, but I don't think it was a huge audience.

Lol, my Mom actually went back and watched Ghost Protocol, Rogue Nation, and Fallout for the first time after seeing Maverick, and then watched Dead Reckoning in IMAX on opening day. But that's definitely the exception, not the rule.

[katnisscinnaplex]

1 hour ago, LegionGPT said:

Looking to make it 31 days this wknd with something like a 15-20% drop imo. The lowest weekday of this set will be 1.57 so next mon and wed should hover ~ 1.3M imo for easy 38 days. Surviving barbenheimer on day 39 and barben+mansion previews on 42 are the only dicey parts but I suspect based on PSA/demos that it will survive pretty well.   
 

Wonder what the best 1M streaks are for movies without any wknd over 30M.

Knives Out missed one day (23) of its first 40

Bridesmaids made it to 45

 

Only went back to 2010 though

[GambitPool]

21 minutes ago, TMP said:

I think a big issue is that Paramount kind of just forgot to market the film between May 2022 to May 2023 lol. I like it because there was so much incredible stuff in the movie that I never got spoilt beforehand, but maybe it wasn't the best for the opening few days. Still think this legs it out like crazy because it's fucking goooood, and if there's one thing this summer taught us it's that quality is king.

I do think Oppenheimer is sucking a lot of the oxygen out of Mission rn though. Feel like both will wind up above $200m dom, but maybe Nolan gets the edge rn...

I agree. I think another big issue, related to yours, is they attached the first trailer with Maverick - nearly 14 months out from the actual release date. Then released the next trailer just a couple months before release when everything was flopping or underwhelming. It's hard to keep something in the public consciousness when you promote it almost a year out, forget about it for most of that year, then use generic marketing attached to stuff people aren't even paying attention to. 

 

In that time, the Barbie/Oppenheimer campaign started, grew bigger, then grew out of control and is seeing the fruits of it's labor just a week before release. If you want long term marketing, actually market it during that long-term. 

[eeetooki]

3 hours ago, ZattMurdock said:

Yes but he never carried a fucking comic book. How the hell he managed to carry one film let alone three is truly beyond me. Both Hawkeyes (Clint and Kate) are capable of carrying their own comic books.  Hell, all the characters that got their own Disney+ carry successful comic book runs that are published to this day. Scott Lang (or Hank Pym) never pulled that off. That’s absolutely unlike ANY OTHER MCU character that has carried solo films. All of them, despite arguably B list characters compared to the X-Men and Spider-Man, easily carried successful comic book runs.

 

 
 

Speaking as a casual Marvel audience who doesn't read the comics. I think Paul Rudd is just likable as Scott Lang. I don't how how to explain it. I don't swoon over him like I do with Chris Hemsworth, but I wouldn't mind watching him as Scott Lang for another few movies. I mean the first two Ant Man movies were enjoyable for me, even though I am not sure what happened with the third one. Liked them more than the Dr. Strange movies, Captain America 1 and Iron Man movies (personal preference). 

[ZattMurdock]

I will worry about an eventual Mrs. Reagan side effects later. Right now, this is the energy that the occasion requires.

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

 

Really happy I predicted over 20m this week in the derby now

 

[Eric S'ennui]

And also it's not like Mission Impossible is an obscurity in Tom Cruise's filmography. The last movie did like 800M or something. At this rate, most people have already seen at least one of these movies and know if they like them or not. There isn't any room to grow IMO

[MovieMan89]

I do agree with those saying marketing for DR was a drastic step down from Fallout. The Fallout marketing was relentless for months and months and some absolutely brilliantly cut trailers. Cavill bicep guns became a meme too, so that type of stuff never hurts. 
 

I didn’t honestly expect it would matter much though given the amazing goodwill this franchise should have by now, and Cruise coming off of the blockbuster juggernaut of his career. Don’t blame them for thinking they could just coast with marketing honestly. That said, I still don’t by any means think we know the full picture for DR box office. This franchise more than any other big one has plenty of room to not be frontloaded and still do well. 

[Torontofan]

11 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

 

Really happy I predicted over 20m this week in the derby now

 

 

 

Lol seems 120 million seems likely now

[Alexander]

I think both MI and the Flash should have been released in March / April. Easter or one week before.

[Torontofan]

I think the studio thought the buzz from Fallout and Tom Cruise Top Gun Hype would carry MI7 to a massive gross on its own. 

[Ledmonkey96]

huh Sound of Freedom will probably do >50% of MI this weekend huh..... hell it's PTA was 75% of MI yesterday

Edited July 14, 2023 by Ledmonkey96

[LegionWrex]

So much doom and gloom right now. I'm holding steadfast until the end of the weekend to fully make a judgment, if I even have any.

 

Still staying firm that this will leg out and do Rogue Nation numbers. Refuse to budge from this.

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, LegionWrex said:

So much doom and gloom right now. I'm holding steadfast until the end of the weekend to fully make a judgment, if I even have any.

 

Still staying firm that this will leg out and do Rogue Nation numbers. Refuse to budge from this.

I still have a very hard time imagining why this wouldn’t beat Fallout, but I suppose the Barbenheimer monster could kill everything else at this point… 

 

If this does end up being the lowest grossing MI since 3 DOM, I stand by when Hollywood was treating “Part 1” titles as a box office curse. I think that has yet be proven untrue and I don’t get why they stuck with it. 

Edited July 14, 2023 by MovieMan89

[TwoMisfits]

22 minutes ago, Torontofan said:

 

 

Lol seems 120 million seems likely now

 

I was in the over Flash club after my viewing Monday...

 

If SoF goes over $30M this weekend (unlikely, but I'm no longer gonna question the insaneness of this run), I might enter the #1 original of the year DOM club (which would be a battle with Elemental)...

Edited July 14, 2023 by TwoMisfits