Weekday numbers July 10-13

[John Marston]

13 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I disagree about Cruise at a career peak. But I've posted this endlessly--the idea of M7 receiving a Top gun bump was nuts. This is the 7th installment of a franchise which was already revived and hit a peak. Regardless of reviews, the ceiling was hit and Barbie/Oppenheimer weekend is too devouring. There was just no reason that more people outside the franchise fans would need to see this. What was the narrative? 

 

 

potentially struggling for 200m though is disastrous. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

 

 

potentially struggling for 200m though is disastrous. 

idk why you quoted me but I would agree lol

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

2 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Sound of Freedom and Insidious V just broke out so not sure that’s true

bruh insidious has come out a full 3 weeks before Barbie/Oppenheimer and the expectations for a horror sequel that aims very young which will make like 65% of total during the opening weekend are much different

 

Sound of Freedom... the majority of people who see this hardly go to the movies. They're right-leaning and conservative and white. I don't really think they're interested in Barbie or Oppenheimer. Or Mission Impossible.

[filmlover]

25 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

not trolling, what went wrong here?

Nothing other than inflated expectations as a result of Top Gun: Maverick (joining the chorus of never being sure where that came from that one other than Cruise's presence) even though this wasn't related to that movie at all other than starring Cruise + being part of a nearly 30 year old franchise that's now 7 movies in (and has likely peaked because of that). Between this and Indiana Jones (and I suppose the overhyping-for-nothing of The Flash), too many were looking for a "this year's Top Gun: Maverick" when in reality there was none.

 

(though Barbie is looking more and more likely to absolutely explode each day so it's possible our surprise summer smash was right in front of us this whole time and we were looking in the wrong places)

[John Marston]

Just now, filmlover said:

Nothing other than inflated expectations as a result of Top Gun: Maverick (joining the chorus of never being sure where that came from that one other than Cruise's presence) even though this wasn't related to that movie at all other than starring Cruise + being part of a nearly 30 year old franchise that's now 7 movies in (and has likely peaked because of that). Between this and Indiana Jones (and I suppose the overhyping-for-nothing of The Flash), too many were looking for a "this year's Top Gun: Maverick" when in reality there was none.

 

(though Barbie is looking more and more likely to absolutely explode each day so it's possible our surprise summer smash was right in front of us this whole time and we were looking in the wrong places)

 

 

expecting it to pass Fallout is not "overinflated expectations"

[ZeroHour]

It’s kinda funny that so much attention was paid toward what movie this summer would recreate the magic of Top Gun Maverick. Michael Keaton in The Flash? No. Harrison Ford’s last hurrah as Indiana Jones? Nope. Not even Tom Cruise himself could do it. Instead, the big summer breakout is going to be Barbie, a movie that couldn’t be more different in content or core audience. 
 

@filmlover beat me to it!

Edited July 13, 2023 by ZeroHour

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, across the Jat verse said:

SOF up from yday. 4.2M

Oh yday actuals were 3.8, thought they were 4 for some readon. In that case 3.9-4M

[M37]

7 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

expecting it to pass Fallout is not "overinflated expectations"

Fallout though was a high water mark for the franchise, and got there mostly via legs, not that much of a bigger opening. Falling back to Rogue Nation level was probably more the baseline, though it may not even get there 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

 

Apparently not

[Souther]

10 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

 

Apparently not

The guy did whatever he could to bring people to cinemas. He made a great movie and promoted the hell out of it. 

[Cmasterclay]

24 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

expecting it to pass Fallout is not "overinflated expectations"

Sure it is. Fallout was a defacto finale with much better trailers and frankly better reception too. This is a Part One with much less of a hook. 

 

When Fallout came out, virtually everyone said "that was the peak, they'll never top that, they should just stop." I'm certainly glad they didn't, but that was the peak of the franchise even before accounting for the fact that the main audience for this doesn't go to the theaters anymore. 

 

If it wasn't for the sterling reviews and Maverick hype, I would have predicted about 180m. That's just less than John Wick 4, which certainly FEELS like a much bigger and more hyped franchise in the year 2023 (even though I like MI much, much more personally). 

Edited July 13, 2023 by Cmasterclay

[interiorgatordecorator]

so this post-covid market cant keep up with so many releases?

wonder what summer 2024 might end up looking after this

[ZattMurdock]

43 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Cruise fatigue kick in. 

Oh I cannot wait for the Cruise fatigue articles. Those are always fun.

[Boxx93]

The amount of pessimism in this board is just hilarious. Once again: MI7 will be fine. It's a backloaded franchise.

 

Elemental taught me to be patient with these things.

Edited July 13, 2023 by Boxx93

[Cmasterclay]

Obviously my anecdotal evidence is not the end all be all. But I am a 29 year old white male with a graduate degree in a very diverse area in a blue part of a red state who interfaces with the public alot. I think I can get a fairly representative sample. If you were to pull a sample of 100 people I know, which would generate a hugely diverse range of cultural backgrounds, I would bet my entire month's salary that 90 out of 100 would prefer to see a John Wick movie than a Mission Impossible movie. Any 29 year old male who says otherwise is either only hanging out with a narrowly defined slice of white people or is bullshitting. It's clear which franchise the young people prefer. The reason MI has grossed more historically is whites over 40, aka the main group of people who don't see movies anymore. So why were people expecting this to gross over 100m more than John Wick 4? The fact that it'll still likely beat it by 20-30m domestic should be impressive in 2023. What year is this? 

[Truckasaurus]

4 minutes ago, Boxx93 said:

The amount of pessimism in this board is just hilarious. Once again: MI7 will be fine. It's a backloaded franchise.

 

Elemental taught me to be patient with these things.

A level headed reaction to numbers? On BOT?

 

....huh.

[filmlover]

7 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

so this post-covid market cant keep up with so many releases?

wonder what summer 2024 might end up looking after this

With a potential SAG strike starting tomorrow putting a stop to all the movies that are filming right now, what next summer will look like is completely up in the air at the moment.

 

I'm sure theaters have been fine with having a new $50M+ opener almost every week these past 2 months. That's a lot of concessions they're selling each week. It's the studios that will be on the hook for the budgets of these movies being so high that profitability was difficult for a lot of them (even if a number of them were overinflated due to COVID protocols).

[Bob Train]

If the Cinemascore is an A then I hope the doom 'n gloom ends. If it's A- then I expect doom 'n gloom to continue.

Edited July 13, 2023 by Bob Train

[Unfitclock]

How do weekend sales look for mission impossible I wonder if it’s just a weekend movie

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I would bet my entire month's salary that 90 out of 100 would prefer to see a John Wick movie than a Mission Impossible movie.