TOM CRUISE LOVES HIS POPCORN. MOVIES. POPCORN: THE WEEKEND THREAD | We are just waiting for Barbenheimer here

[Morieris]

7 minutes ago, filmlover said:

That's why I think a couple of movies this fall will be pushed back, not just as strike insurance for the 2024 schedule but also because they need star appearances to really help them out in getting awareness out there (this seems especially true of the movies that were planning to bow at the fall film festivals).

 

My first thought reading this was "I will be extremely surprised if The Creator comes out this year if the strike continues into late next month."

[JimmyB]

3 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Insidious was a terrible movie that didn't even have many scares in it. Horror fans must be desperate for content 

I thought it was a weak movie as well. I guess never underestimate date night for the latest horror movie and teens who have nothing to do. 

[filmlover]

Just now, Morieris said:

 

My first thought reading this was "I will be extremely surprised if The Creator comes out this year if the strike continues into late next month."

The Creator should be fine for its September 29 release date since it's not being sold as a "star vehicle" the way a number of these movies are or will be. They won't risk losing its already set IMAX/PLF plans by moving it away.

[Joyous Legion]

34 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

@Elegiental (great name btw lol) what are the per showing averages looking like for elemental vs indy/insidious? Who is getting the chop more for Barbenheimer?

Updated with mix of studio ests and my ests:

Movie	Shows	Change	Gross	PSA
Mission: Impossible 7	100,031		$55,000,000	$550
Insidious 6	43,287	-20.22%	$13,000,000	$300
Indiana Jones 5	40,724	-40.42%	$12,000,000	$295
Sound of Freedom	36,577	16.93%	$27,500,000	$752
Elemental	35,171	-3.90%	$8,900,000	$253
Joy Ride	26,152	-32.20%	$2,600,000	$99
Spider-Verse 2	25,604	-15.30%	$6,100,000	$238
No Hard Feelings	19,455	-30.47%	$3,250,000	$167
Transformers 6	16,997	-28.03%	$3,400,000	$200
The Little Mermaid	11,623	-35.27%	$2,400,000	$206
The Miracle Club	8,364			$0
Ruby Gillman	7,715	-75.87%	$950,000	$123
Asteroid City	6,283	-47.84%	$1,160,000	$185
Psycho-Pass	5,247		$200,000	$38
The Flash	4,335	-65.09%	$700,000	$161

 

Howner ever exhibitors can look at the PSA drops vs last week and demo competition to see that Elemental will have a higher PSA curve next wknd so I anticipate something like:

Barbie 125k

Opp 90k

SoF 45k

MI 40k

Ele 28k

Insidious 20k

Indy 18k

SV2 16k

This is my first time projecting though didn’t go too hard at it

 

[JohnnyGossamer]

Is next weekend locked to be highest admissions in a single weekend DOM post pandemic? Higher than No Way Home's OW and Super Mario's OW? I think those are the two highest weekends (including other releases). 

[Water Bottle]

10 minutes ago, FunkMiller said:

Am I going mad here, or should everyone be riding Mission Impossible a hell of lot harder given its three day was under Indy 5's with the same budget?

 

Fallout opened to $61 million domestically. Ended up with $220 million domestic, $571 international, $791 million worldwide. If Dead Recknoning has similar legs and similar performance...

 

6 minutes ago, FunkMiller said:

 

Yeah, fair play. It'll still struggle to make much of a profit on that budget.

 

It will make a profit. 

 

19 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Next month movies will be fine 

 

There’s tons of promotional material with the cast shot prior strike for all Haunted Mansion, Meg, TMNT and Gran Turismo 

 

Heck, even Haunting in Venice already shot some promotional with cast before the strike iirc, they’re just holding it

 

Sure but like there's only so much pre-packaged promo material can do. Like, yeah those will help. But I think the box office is being hurt RIGHT NOW and that was with actors being able to do some promotion because so many of the traditional avenues of getting WOM out have been shut down. 

 

Like MI: Dead Recknoning Part One will be fine. It'll make back it's money more than likely and make a good profit for the studio. But I do think it was hurt by the lack of late night show promotion and such. 

 

10 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The sequels and IP-dependent titles (ala Kraven the Hunter, Wonka, The Color Purple, etc.) as well as the pricey star-driven dramas (Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon) will all stay since they're the ones that will do the heavy lifting at the box office regardless of whether the stars can promote them or not (though most - all? - of them already shot cast promotional material before July 13 that will be released during the weeks leading up to the opening dates), but I doubt stuff like Dumb Money or poor cursed Next Goal Wins will release this year if the stars are unable to hit the red carpets for those splashy festival premieres.

 

Not convinced Killers of the Flower Moon or Napoleon will do well TBH. But we'll see. i do think "pricey star driven dramas" will definitely be hurt by the stars not promoting it though. Kinda hard to be driven by stars when the stars be on strike. 

[THUNDER BIRD]

I know this script, it is familier.

 

Godzilla vs Kong saved Cinemas during the Pandemic 

 

Godzilla x Kong will save Cinemas after the Strike

[WorkingonaName]

Killers will do >$300M believe. 

[ThomasNicole]

4 minutes ago, Morieris said:

 

My first thought reading this was "I will be extremely surprised if The Creator comes out this year if the strike continues into late next month."

I don’t know about that, they could risk losing a pretty amazing date for IMAX and premium screens overall 

 

And it’s not really a cast driven movie, it doesn’t even have a huge star. 
 

If it was a very expensive movie than yes but with ~80M budget i think it’ll be fine 

 

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

4 minutes ago, Elegiental said:

Updated with mix of studio ests and my ests:

Movie	Shows	Change	Gross	PSA
Mission: Impossible 7	100,031		$55,000,000	$550
Insidious 6	43,287	-20.22%	$13,000,000	$300
Indiana Jones 5	40,724	-40.42%	$12,000,000	$295
Sound of Freedom	36,577	16.93%	$27,500,000	$752
Elemental	35,171	-3.90%	$8,900,000	$253
Joy Ride	26,152	-32.20%	$2,600,000	$99
Spider-Verse 2	25,604	-15.30%	$6,100,000	$238
No Hard Feelings	19,455	-30.47%	$3,250,000	$167
Transformers 6	16,997	-28.03%	$3,400,000	$200
The Little Mermaid	11,623	-35.27%	$2,400,000	$206
The Miracle Club	8,364			$0
Ruby Gillman	7,715	-75.87%	$950,000	$123
Asteroid City	6,283	-47.84%	$1,160,000	$185
Psycho-Pass	5,247		$200,000	$38
The Flash	4,335	-65.09%	$700,000	$161

 

Howner ever exhibitors can look at the PSA drops vs last week and demo competition to see that Elemental will have a higher PSA curve next wknd so I anticipate something like:

Barbie 125k

Opp 90k

SoF 45k

MI 40k

Ele 28k

Insidious 20k

Indy 18k

SV2 16k

This is my first time projecting though didn’t go too hard at it

 

Wow SOF 👀 even if 10% of tickets are PIF no-shows thats way above everything else

[TMP]

Barbenheimer almost feels like a "what went right" version of first man (universal) and detective pikachu (WB) dropping the same day lol

[filmlover]

Just now, Water Bottle said:

Not convinced Killers of the Flower Moon or Napoleon will do well TBH. But we'll see. i do think "pricey star driven dramas" will definitely be hurt by the stars not promoting it though. Kinda hard to be driven by stars when the stars be on strike. 

Luckily Killers has Leo front and center lol so they don't need to worry about him not promoting it if the strike is still going by the fall. The movie already did the big splashy world premiere thing back in May at Cannes and its trailer is attached before MI7 (got it at my showing yesterday) so it's not like it's currently hurting in terms of awareness anyway.

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

 

Fallout opened to $61 million domestically. Ended up with $220 million domestic, $571 international, $791 million worldwide. If Dead Recknoning has similar legs and similar performance...

 

 

It will make a profit. 

 

 

Sure but like there's only so much pre-packaged promo material can do. Like, yeah those will help. But I think the box office is being hurt RIGHT NOW and that was with actors being able to do some promotion because so many of the traditional avenues of getting WOM out have been shut down. 

 

Like MI: Dead Recknoning Part One will be fine. It'll make back it's money more than likely and make a good profit for the studio. But I do think it was hurt by the lack of late night show promotion and such. 

 

 

Not convinced Killers of the Flower Moon or Napoleon will do well TBH. But we'll see. i do think "pricey star driven dramas" will definitely be hurt by the stars not promoting it though. Kinda hard to be driven by stars when the stars be on strike. 

I agreed, at some degree every movie after Barbenheimmer will be hurted by the strike. 
 

I just think some of them can still do something about like a creative use of promotional material shot pre strike. 
 

There’s other movies beyond them like Nun 2 that also could do very well because the genre is the biggest hook, not the stars. 

There will be damage but i think the movies that actually can move it the situation lasts too long is the actual blockbusters. Something like The Marvels really need it’s stars because the box office needs to be very big, brand awareness only could be not enough.

 

[The Dark Alfred]

I predicted a 250m WW start, because of China it fell a bit short. Still a monster OW. 15% ahead of FALLOUT overseas excluding China and higher domestic start as well. 

[Brainbug]

5 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

I know this script, it is familier.

 

Godzilla vs Kong saved Cinemas during the Pandemic 

 

Godzilla x Kong will save Cinemas after the Strike

 

This is so true, it hurts in a good way.

[Water Bottle]

Just now, filmlover said:

Luckily Killers has Leo front and center lol so they don't need to worry about him not promoting it if the strike is still going by the fall. The movie already did the big splashy world premiere thing back in May at Cannes and its trailer is attached before MI7 (got it at my showing yesterday) so it's not like it's currently hurting in terms of awareness anyway.

 

But if they don't have Leo going on Jimmy Fallon and being like "come see my new movie out THIS WEEK!" 

 

Cannes means nothing to the GA. MI7 trailer helps sure but like EVERY movie has a trailer and they play before big movies. 

 

It's not awareness that really matters here. All the movies being released by major studios will have some level of awareness unless they like dump it with little marketing. It's the reminder the movie is coming out that weekend.

 

My dad was like "what movie are you seeing this week?" Told him Mission Impossible. His reply? "Oh, right. I forgot that movie existed. It's this weekend, huh?" 

 

And my dad has liked every single MI movie and wants to see this one. 

[Souther]

31 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Not severe enough. But the film discourse is omg Tom Cruise savior of cinema never misses. 

Mate, why do you have such a hate boner for Tom Cruise? I mean the film is brilliant, what else could he have done ? Yes, the film is not going to make money and Variety has mentioned that is going to be an uphill battle to make profit, what do you want them to say now? 

[CJohn]

1 hour ago, kayumanggi said:

 

This one is not reaching 300M. It will end at 296-298M.

56 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

Variety too severe with MI? 

 

 

Variety has been anti-theaters for a while now. Every headline is negative for theaters and theatrical releases.

[ringedmortality]

Killers and Napoleon will both make over 100M WW.

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, ringedmortality said:

Killers and Napoleon will both make over 100M WW.

I think both can go over 200 

 

Not that it matters, it can make 50 and it’ll be irrelevant because the biggest point is the streaming release