Weekday Numbers | Jul 17 - 20 | Wednesday | 4.74M M:I - DEAD RECKONING I | 4.72M SOUND OF FREEDOM

[narniadis]

2 minutes ago, atleekumar said:

movie also had less action scenes compared to fallout one of the reasons why its underperforming in china and other asian countries

Other Asian markets not withstanding, the drop in China has nothing to do with the action, but it being a US film - same as all other Box Office for the few films releasing there. 

[WorkingonaName]

I cant believe Maggie won. 

[narniadis]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I'm one of the biggest supporters of sound of freedom and yet even I think that you might be a bit too optimistic with it. This magical run that it's on is going to taper off one of these days. And by taper off I mean it might actually start behaving somewhat normally. If it doesn't take over Daily's by Wednesday it's not going to this week. It's going to be fun watching it for the rest of the summer but this week just because it's only a million behind right now I don't think that's going to give it enough to pass mission Impossible on the weekdays.

Kind of reminds me of American Sniper - another big one from the conservative crowd that after (wide) weekend 3 just fell off. Those discussions of legs post weekend 1 and 2 never did pan out when 400m+ seemed all but a given. 

[Deep Wang]

It's fine! Like many were warning, MI7 is going to be a weekend movie.  It's not dead yet.  

 

Let me check and see what is coming out this weekend right quick!

 

Edited July 18, 2023 by Deep Wang

[baumer]

1 minute ago, narniadis said:

Kind of reminds me of American Sniper - another big one from the conservative crowd that after (wide) weekend 3 just fell off. Those discussions of legs post weekend 1 and 2 never did pan out when 400m+ seemed all but a given. 

 

I don't think this one is going to just fall off the map. And right now it's not even behaving normally. It just increased this weekend and significantly at that. I think eventually when it starts dropping week to week you're going to see small declines. There's no reason why this film won't pass 150 and if more and more of the general public starts seeing it who knows where it will finish? Could we honestly see a run for 200 million?

[M37]

13 minutes ago, narniadis said:

That is a bonkers bad fall for MI7 unless I'm missing something. Sheesh. I get runtime issues and it being a workday but its summer -65% is rough. 

Keep in mind that it played EA shows last Monday, and full preview on Tue, so some of the typical weekday audience already had a bite at the apple, unlike a usual first Monday 

 

The number that matters is Wed

[WorkingonaName]

Going back in time to let that train hit Sammy Fabelmen so DOD is never released and MI can get 3 weeks of unlimited PLFS. 

[efialtes76]

-66% from MI in July?

No Way!

[ListenHunnyUrOver]

[Valonqar]

9 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Kind of reminds me of American Sniper - another big one from the conservative crowd that after (wide) weekend 3 just fell off. Those discussions of legs post weekend 1 and 2 never did pan out when 400m+ seemed all but a given. 

 

American Sniper didn't fall off:

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2923660801/weekend/?ref_=bo_rl_tab#tabs

 

and you don't make 350M dom just off conservative crowd. It's just that some people wouldn't admit they went to see it over Selma or other liberal movie that played at that time. But yeah search your feelings it wasn't just conservatives. 

[TwoMisfits]

I did want to mention - SoF's last Monday was $4.00M.  $4.5M+ is gonna be an increase week-over-week of 12.5% minimum.

 

That is all.

 

Okay, not all - this run is the craziest run of the last year DOM...it's still in elevation mode in its 3rd week from open (since it had a full day open July 3rd)...

 

[harry713]

That would be a 60% drop for Elemental, it's first Sun-Mon drop over 51%. Looks like everything dipped a bit steeper than previous weeks. 

[baumer]

I can only tell you what I have heard from people that I've spoken to concerning mission Impossible dead reckoning and that is that as much action as it has, there's just something missing in the movie. Having recently watched ghost protocol and rogue nation, I enjoyed them much more than I did dead reckoning. Critics love the movie and apparently fans do too and yet the numbers weren't great to start with and that Monday drop is definitely something to be concerned about at least in my opinion.

 

And I know this is an old question but why didn't Paula Patton and Jeremy Renner stay in the mission impossible family? I thought they were both excellent in ghost protocol.

[Algebra]

How does PIF work? Can it be misused to buy tickets for other movies by any chance?

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

4 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I don't think this one is going to just fall off the map. And right now it's not even behaving normally. It just increased this weekend and significantly at that. I think eventually when it starts dropping week to week you're going to see small declines. There's no reason why this film won't pass 150 and if more and more of the general public starts seeing it who knows where it will finish? Could we honestly see a run for 200 million?

Yeah these 2nd increase movies are rare but when they happen they don't just fall away unless something disastrous happens. I don't think Barbenheimer is strong enough to damage SOF's holds enough because it's already putting up these insane PSA's on a limited number of showings. If it had the same number of showings as MI7 that would be a different story because it would be bound to lose them, but the floor is extremely high in this case. After following Elemental in SK when you see a trend like this it is extremely unlikely for a movie to slow down. I can see it following last weeks holds with maybe a Tuesday increase/Wed decrease instead and end up something like this

 

Mon: 4.8

Tue 5.76 (+20%)

Wed: 5.18 (-10%)

Thu: 5.18 (n/c) 

 

Which would put it 13% ahead of last Thursday. Last week it had nearly a 6x Thu -> Wkd IM, even if that drops to something like 4.5x that would still be a $23.3m third weekend or a 15% drop and I think that's harsh. 

[WorkingonaName]

4 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

American Sniper didn't fall off:

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2923660801/weekend/?ref_=bo_rl_tab#tabs

 

and you don't make 350M dom just off conservative crowd. It's just that some people wouldn't admit they went to see it over Selma or other liberal movie that played at that time. But yeah search your feelings it wasn't just conservatives. 

Holy shit, I had no idea American Sniper was that big. 

[KP1025]

That puts MI7's 6-day total roughly $5.6 million behind Indy's. The second weekend will likely be lower too thanks to the effect of Barbieheimer, but hopefully it can start to gain ground from the 3rd weekend onwards.

[baumer]

I don't think sound of freedom is going to have a tiny drop this weekend nor do I think it's going to have a monstrous one. Part of the reason it increased last weekend over the weekend before is that it added theaters and word of mouth began to spread like wildfire. Now that people are aware of the film and it's not going to get another theater increase and it'll be facing possibly 200 million in New blood, I think it's reasonable to assume that it could drop something like 20-25%. That will still put it well over 100 million probably even closer to 120.

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, Algebra said:

How does PIF work? Can it be misused to buy tickets for other movies by any chance?

 

No.  You are directed to only SoF for purchases on Atom.

[Rainy]

Is there a chance it beats MI7 on Tuesday?