C’MON BARBIE LET'S GO PARTY...AT LOS ALAMOS | BARBENHEIMER WEEKEND THREAD | We’re Thriving in our Plastic Fantastic Era | Mother Mothered with 162M | Daddy Exploded with 82.4M

[ZattMurdock]

7 minutes ago, TomThomas said:

I see your point and there's truth to it, but I still think it shouldn't have dropped this much all things considered, not all franchise have big media presense and still do well enough. By the way, new AAA Indy game is in development from Machine Games and Bethesda. Maybe if they managed to release it before Indy 5, it would've done better.

That’s  precisely one of the points I’ve made about Indy and M:I on my following posts: They are aging franchises with no multimedia footprint other than the films that are more mid range blockbusters compared with the massive blockbusters, and for the kind of budget those movies had, you don’t get away with making $300m budget films from franchises with no real broader appeal outside the franchises themselves. Not even Avatar is simply James Cameron’s Avatar anymore.
 

Well aware about the Indy game, but it was too little and well, delayed, pardon the pun. 
 

M:I is around for like 20 years. John Wick is around for less than 10 iirc. That’s how you pursue adding value and new audiences to your films, how you plan ahead for the longevity of the franchise:

 

https://gamerant.com/john-wick-aaa-game/

 

You keep the franchise in the conversation, you bring him to new younger audiences. If me as a 42 year old find it kinda weird that Cruise is doing this for 20 years, I’d imagine kids and people younger than me see it kinda that way too. Now if you keep the character and the franchise cool and relevant to today’s audiences, that’s how you stay evergreen. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

45 minutes ago, baumer said:

Elemental is having some massive Bridget Nielsen kind of legs. I don't know where it's going to end up at this point but after a rough beginning it certainly showed that audiences are really liking it.

[JohnnyGossamer]

So what are we looking at for weekend numbers? What was the Saturday number for Barbie and Oppenheimer? Thanks in advance!

 

If Barbie's a bit frontloaded for the weekend that can't be super shocking. Other films that opened huge or very big aimed directly at women have been too... Twilight, 50 Shades, Sex and the City. It'll stabilize after an enormous second weekend drop and finish with a ridiculous number DOM.

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

So what are we looking at for weekend numbers? What was the Saturday number for Barbie and Oppenheimer? Thanks in advance!

 

If Barbie's a bit frontloaded for the weekend that can't be super shocking. Other films that opened huge or very big aimed directly at women have been too... Twilight, 50 Shades, Sex and the City. It'll stabilize after an enormous second weekend drop and finish with a ridiculous number DOM.

It looks like HP’s record is safe and yeah, I agree on the bold.

[vale9001]

Conservatives now are fighting about woke or not.

 

If you want to read It all It's a little bit spoiler

 

 

Spoiler

 

 

Edited July 23, 2023 by vale9001

[JohnnyGossamer]

5 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

It looks like HP’s record is safe and yeah, I agree on the bold.

So what's that mean? Closer to 150M OW DOM? 160M OW DOM?

[M37]

22 minutes ago, baumer said:

Barbie stayed flat on Saturday from it's friday, that's not exactly front loaded.

Yes it is? Summer movies don’t see a huge Sat jump on OW, mostly under +20%, but a flat to slight decline Sat is a signal of a bigger Friday fangirl rush. Off top of my head, the only flat or worse Fri/Sat film in last two summers was Minions, but that was July 4th weekend which throws off the normal pattern 

 

Still a huge OW, but the Saturday number is IMO more reflective of the baseline for projecting forward; a good shot at $400M+, but ceiling lower than if we had seen a +10%/$53M Sat 

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, JohnnyGossamer said:

So what's that mean? Closer to 150M OW DOM? 160M OW DOM?

Around 150-160m OW +- yeah.

[M37]

3 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

So what's that mean? Closer to 150M OW DOM? 160M OW DOM?

There’s some conflicting reports about the actual Sat number, but for right now I’d say closer to middle (~$156M), probably leaning more towards $150 side 

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, M37 said:

Yes it is? Summer movies don’t see a huge Sat jump on OW, mostly under +20%, but a flat to slight decline Sat is a signal of a bigger Friday fangirl rush. Off top of my head, the only flat or worse Fri/Sat film in last two summers was Minions, but that was July 4th weekend which throws off the normal pattern 

 

Still a huge OW, but the Saturday number is IMO more reflective of the baseline for projecting forward; a good shot at $400M+, but ceiling lower than if we had seen a +10%/$53M Sat 

Frontloadness is part of our culture simply because that’s how we got used to consume media. Films like Avatar 1 and Titanic don’t happen any longer and there is an argument to be made about the crazy A1 trajectory because of lack of screens available to see it in 3D and the famous snow storm that hit the US back in 2009. 
 

It is an absolute insane OW and we really need to do a better job setting expectations when it comes to box office runs. It’s landing exactly where a lot of us said it’d be. I remember me and M37 having this exact conversation before, about not thinking this would make Avengers: Endgame or Spider-Man: No Way Home numbers and hyping it up like that isn’t fair with a film that was about to breakout as the massive success we have right now. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

Well, glad Lion King is keeping that July record... Seemingly without even breaking a sweat too... Considering all the kid admissions to that to one probably by an enormous number of admissions too. Glad not because it's good (it's awful) but because we all deserve to be reminded of our sins for making that the biggest July OW DOM. May its record stay in tact for a long, long while. Seems Barbie, after all, wasn't even really a threat to it.

 

 

[vale9001]

13 minutes ago, M37 said:

Yes it is? Summer movies don’t see a huge Sat jump on OW, mostly under +20%, but a flat to slight decline Sat is a signal of a bigger Friday fangirl rush. Off top of my head, the only flat or worse Fri/Sat film in last two summers was Minions, but that was July 4th weekend which throws off the normal pattern 

 

Still a huge OW, but the Saturday number is IMO more reflective of the baseline for projecting forward; a good shot at $400M+, but ceiling lower than if we had seen a +10%/$53M Sat 

 

if you take away the wednesday previews seems similar to Thor 4. 

Edited July 23, 2023 by vale9001

[JohnnyGossamer]

4 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Frontloadness is part of our culture simply because that’s how we got used to consume media. Films like Avatar 1 and Titanic don’t happen any longer and there is an argument to be made about the crazy A1 trajectory because of lack of screens available to see it in 3D and the famous snow storm that hit the US back in 2009. 
 

It is an absolute insane OW and we really need to do a better job setting expectations when it comes to box office runs. It’s landing exactly where a lot of us said it’d be. I remember me and M37 having this exact conversation before, about not thinking this would make Avengers: Endgame or Spider-Man: No Way Home numbers and hyping it up like that isn’t fair with a film that was about to breakout as the massive success we have right now. 

I mean, Top Gun 2 and Avatar 2 did just happen pretty recently. Pretty remarkable legs for 100M+ OW DOM.

[vale9001]

So as always deadline was too negative and trackers here were right 😇

 

 

 

Edited July 23, 2023 by vale9001

[reddevil19]

Someone took offense to the last long range tracking/projections for Barbie in the tracking thread and I said then that TDK opening/final is a good optimal scenario for it. I still think that's the case based on the couple of numbers we have so far...

Of course, if it stabilizes quicker, then the discussion can change towards taking down Mario and, on the flipside, if it doesn't, then we are maybe looking at something more like Hunger Games...

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, JohnnyGossamer said:

I mean, Top Gun 2 and Avatar 2 did just happen pretty recently. Pretty remarkable legs for 100M+ OW DOM.

Any opening that starts over $100m+ OW and has an insane box office run is amazing, but not really the same as Titanic and Avatar 1 imho. Don’t think it’s fair with Barbie to compare with these other two either, but if it has legs as big as them, even better.

[JohnnyGossamer]

4 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Someone took offense to the last long range tracking/projections for Barbie in the tracking thread and I said then that TDK opening/final is a good optimal scenario for it. I still think that's the case based on the couple of numbers we have so far...

Of course, if it stabilizes quicker, then the discussion can change towards taking down Mario and, on the flipside, if it doesn't, then we are maybe looking at something more like Hunger Games...

I can't even imagine Barbie opening just under TDK then having better legs than it. I'm thinking just under 500M DOM if it opens to 155M~ DOM.

[MightyDargon]

It's stupid to compare Maverick to Titanic. Titanic was treated as an event for most of the YEAR after it was released. Maverick was "long run by 2020s standards" which puts it roughly where a succesful, popular 80s film like Ghostbusters would be in terms of legginess. Titanic was an absolute freak of nature.

[Krissykins]

8 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I'm thinking just under 500M DOM if it opens to 155M~ DOM.

Yeh that would be incredible for Barbie.

 

Can’t believe we’re talking $400m+. I honestly thought this was one of the riskiest films of the year. 

[SchumacherFTW]

I don't think Barbie staying flat between Friday and Saturday in this scenario is a symptom of front loading at all, this is a unique scenario where there simply isn't the screen space available for demand to be met like a traditional 150m+ opener these days. Sunday will likely see a better hold than would usually be had simply because of the spillover demand, same for Oppenheimer