The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

On 8/4/2023 at 6:16 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Melbourne-Gainesville greater region 

 

Strays 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
138	307	24786	1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

80

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-13

 

(0.211x) of Oppenheimer 

~$2.22M THUR Previews 

Orlando-Melbourne-Gainesville greater region 

 

Strays 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
138	347	24786	1.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

40

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-12

 

(0.225x) of Oppenheimer 

~$2.36M THUR Previews 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 8/4/2023 at 6:20 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Melbourne-Gainesville greater region 

 

Blue Beetle

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
150	544	26422	2.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

16

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-13

 

(0.232x) of The Flash

~$2.25M THUR Previews 

 

(0.272x) of Indy 5

~$1.96M THUR Previews

 

(0.376x) of Fast X

~$2.82M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $2.34M previews 

 

Unironically, 1 showing is sold out 

Orlando-Melbourne-Gainesville greater region 

 

Blue Beetle

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
150	635	26422	2.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

91

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-12

 

(0.260x) of The Flash

~$2.53M THUR Previews 

 

(0.308x) of Indy 5

~$2.22M THUR Previews

 

(0.434x) of Fast X

~$3.25M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $2.67M previews 

[CJohn]

Blue Beetle breaking out this much was not on my bingo card.

[keysersoze123]

15 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Melbourne-Gainesville greater region 

 

Blue Beetle

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
150	635	26422	2.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

91

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-12

 

(0.260x) of The Flash

~$2.53M THUR Previews 

 

(0.308x) of Indy 5

~$2.22M THUR Previews

 

(0.434x) of Fast X

~$3.25M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $2.67M previews 

If you have the data on number of tickets the 3 movies sold on that day, you should be able to project lot better. This is trending towards 4m+ previews for sure. 

[SpiderByte]

Well that's upwards at least. Hopefully it gets a boost if reviews are good.

[TheFlatLannister]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

If you have the data on number of tickets the 3 movies sold on that day, you should be able to project lot better. This is trending towards 4m+ previews for sure. 

Indy 5, fast x, flash comps are all from T-12 

[keysersoze123]

10 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Indy 5, fast x, flash comps are all from T-12 

My question was around how many tickets those movies sold on that day you checked. Opening day sales for those movies would be way higher as they target bigger group for various reasons. Indy/Fast are sequels to popular franchises and Flash was more than just a flash movie. But the trending will be better seen with actual pace seen on T-12 and where it ended up and relative pace for this movie. 

 

Example is your T-12 update for Indy. It just sold 65 tickets. So Blue Beetle is actually trending better. 

Flash T-12 also sold just 90 tickets. Fast X T-12 sold just 36 tickets. 

Edited August 5, 2023 by keysersoze123

[TMP]

20 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

If you have the data on number of tickets the 3 movies sold on that day, you should be able to project lot better. This is trending towards 4m+ previews for sure. 

That would be… really good?

[keysersoze123]

8 minutes ago, TMP said:

That would be… really good?

if your expectations are rock bottom its good. But its a DC SH movie. If the reception meh, it will collapse very fast. So let us see how things go. I hope they dont wait until wednesday before release for reactions/reviews. 

[SpiderByte]

It's good relative to it's dirt terrible estimates.

[TheFlatLannister]

35 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

My question was around how many tickets those movies sold on that day you checked. Opening day sales for those movies would be way higher as they target bigger group for various reasons. Indy/Fast are sequels to popular franchises and Flash was more than just a flash movie. But the trending will be better seen with actual pace seen on T-12 and where it ended up and relative pace for this movie. 

 

Example is your T-12 update for Indy. It just sold 65 tickets. So Blue Beetle is actually trending better. 

Flash T-12 also sold just 90 tickets. Fast X T-12 sold just 36 tickets. 

Makes sense. 

 

BB pace is better than the other 3, but presale window is a lot shorter. Blue beetle started T-16. Flash T-22, Indy T-37, and Fast X had a 40+ day window i believe 

 

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Makes sense. 

 

BB pace is better than the other 3, but presale window is a lot shorter. Blue beetle started T-16. Flash T-22, Indy T-37, and Fast X had a 40+ day window i believe 

 

its just a suggestion. Feel free to ignore it. Its just that you can extrapolate the end number from pace rather than total. 

[TMP]

23 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

if your expectations are rock bottom its good. But its a DC SH movie. If the reception meh, it will collapse very fast. So let us see how things go. I hope they dont wait until wednesday before release for reactions/reviews. 

Beetle opening to $30m would be a Barbie level breakout for me lol, which is why i’m still kind of doubting previews that high

[ChipDerby]

34 minutes ago, TMP said:

Beetle opening to $30m would be a Barbie level breakout for me lol, which is why i’m still kind of doubting previews that high

 

$40+ mil!!!

[Tinalera]

Hey, just checking in. Havent been doing any real counts recently-had busy stuff going on. Things settling down now so hopefully I can get back to at least semi regular counts. I mean August tends to be a pretty dead month. Ive mainly been causally following Blue Beetle-and limited pre-sales in those cities, and the ones that are having presales, well lets just say theres a whole of of low single digit or o digits. I havent checked Toronto or Montreal past few days, but if its similar, with a week to go seems like there seems to be little appetite for BB. Doesnt help either with Barbie, Oppy, and other theatres taking up IMAX and prestige screens, BB is getting some avx, and a couple have bigger theatres but generally smaller theatre screen offerings.

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

its just a suggestion. Feel free to ignore it. Its just that you can extrapolate the end number from pace rather than total. 

I'm not sure if I did this right but:

 

Blue beetle's pace vs the Flash $4.57m

Edited August 6, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[keysersoze123]

That said orlando should over index considering big hispanic population.  

[MightyDargon]

Blue Beetle's "overperformance" seems more like a one-legged turtle managing to walk at 1 mph instead of 0.5mph rather than a sign of an actual breakout.

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, SpiderByte said:

It's good relative to it's dirt terrible estimates.

 

7 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

Blue Beetle's "overperformance" seems more like a one-legged turtle managing to walk at 1 mph instead of 0.5mph rather than a sign of an actual breakout.

Yeh no one is saying it’s good, but technically it would be an overperformance in comparison to its tracking, which is $13-18m and for a long time was $12m.  

[DisposedData]

50 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

That said orlando should over index considering big hispanic population.  

Orlando isn't Miami