The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Not sure if you tracked it, but there were a lot of EA shows today all over that were selling pretty great.  Lots of sell outs when I checked around.  You may see sales pick up a little (more than normal) in your next update since those shows have passed.

 

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Noticed this. MTC1 has two showings that are close to 98% capacity. Most MTC2 showings are around 30% capacity which is weird 

 

Very strong sales locally, except here (as usual) MTC2 was stronger than MTC3 overall:

 

133	147	90.48%
16	17	94.12%
100	148	67.57%
75	92	81.52%
107	183	58.47%
109	122	89.34%
22	31	70.97%
38	61	62.30%
77	108	71.30%

 

Couple of those are DBOX showings, but still...

 

FWIW, it's gonna have far more sales locally than MI7 did for those Walmart+ showings, but only because there were more than twice as many shows locally for TMNT Sneaks than there were for MI7 Walmart+.  But that, and the different days (Sat vs Sun) is gonna muck with the MI7 comp more than a bit.

 

Even so, very good sign for TMNT's prospects.  Especially if WOM is as good as it should be out of those sneaks.

 

 

 

[TheFlatLannister]

2 hours ago, Boxofficerules said:

Is it me or are those Meg 2 numbers terrible?

@katnisscinnaplex numbers are hovering over $1m. My comps are just barely over $1m. Maybe F-S-S sales are super strong, but Thursday is not looking strong at all. 

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

@katnisscinnaplex numbers are hovering over $1m. My comps are just barely over $1m. Maybe F-S-S sales are super strong, but Thursday is not looking strong at all. 

 

I took a glance locally a couple days ago, and...

 

[Porthos]

Quote

Quick and Dirty Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem Sacto Report [T-7]

850/12025 (7.07% sold) [+36 tickets]

 

0.52599x MI7 at T-7                      [4.63m]

0.45484x MI7 TUE ONLY at T-7   [3.18m]

 

***NO ADJUSTMENT FOR DISCOUNT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COMPS***:

1.15489x  GBA at T-7           [5.20m]

0.92998x Sonic 2 at T-7      [5.81m]

1.70000x Shazam 2 at T-7   [5.78m]

0.67514x RotB at T-7           [5.94m]

(link to post on old thread)

 

 Quick and Dirty Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem Sacto Report [T-3]

1698/14387 (11.80% sold) [+344 tickets] [+210 Sneak | +59 EA | +75 Tue]

 

0.62842x MI7 at T-3                      [5.53m]

0.41478x MI7 TUE ONLY at T-3    [2.90m]

 

***NO ADJUSTMENT FOR DISCOUNT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COMPS***:

1.44265x  GBA at T-3            [6.49m]

1.04172x Sonic 2 at T-3         [6.51m]

2.43266x Shazam 2 at T-3   [8.27m]

0.85844x RotB at T-3           [7.55m]

 

======

 

All comps except the Reported Tuesday MI7 comp went up.  Some by not a small amount (the full MI7 comp went up by a full million, for instance).

 

HOWEVER.  However, as I was pointing out earlier today, timing is something of an issue as, locally at least, there are far more Saturday Sneaks than there were Sunday (Walmart) Shopping.  Also the True Tue comp did in fact go down a tad, so fairly plausible we're seeing some shifting/shuffling going on.  Even so, that can only explain so much of the overall comp rises.

 

Regardless, even with timing issues, this does seem indeed to be something of a mini-Rise of the Beasts.  Next, I suppose, is seeing how the EA shows play out and just how much demand got burnt today + any signs of WOM from today's screenings.

Edited November 11, 2023 by Porthos

[M37]

Fwiw, and Tuesday release + EA shows is weird no matter how you slice it, think it might be better to exclude Sat sneaks from the preview count and just ballpark in that value separately. The walk-up rate for a Saturday afternoon is just so much higher than a weekday night, drawing in people who wouldn’t be a potential preview viewer instead, unlike say a Tue EA vs Thur preview 

[filmlover]

Would anyone be surprised if Meg 2 pulled a sub-$20M at this point? I wouldn't.

[misterpepp]

Blue Beetle tix on sale this Tuesday

@Hilts

Edited July 30, 2023 by datpepper

[keysersoze123]

22 minutes ago, datpepper said:

Blue Beetle tix on sale this Tuesday

@Hilts

It going to get buried in barbenheimer mania and its starting its sales with Turtles 2 1st  big day. What could go wrong?

[keysersoze123]

On 7/28/2023 at 6:33 PM, keysersoze123 said:

TMNT MTC1

Sneaks(7/29) - 15848/30425 161109.40 218 shows

Early shows(7/31) - 17851/31085 374233.49 166 shows

Previews(8/1) - 22218/528323 363997.92 3345 shows

TMNT MTC1

Sneaks(7/29) - 21935/30596 220654.27 219 shows

Early shows(7/31) - 18922/31353 395449.78 168 shows

Previews(8/1) - 25036/527826 409496.76 3352 shows

 

Thinking around 650K for sneaks since Katniss said 700 shows overall and weekend afternoon ensured good walkups. I think early shows tomorrow with PLF should be even higher. I am thinking 1.5m for that is possible with 500 odd shows overall. Conservatively 2m for early shows over 2 days.  As I said yesterday, tuesday number would be hard to predict with discount tuesday effect. We could compare with MI7 but this will skew families even more and so ATP could be even lower. 

 

Edit: All the data is from yesterday afternoon/evening and I could not post as I was busy. 

 

Edited July 30, 2023 by keysersoze123

[Porthos]

21 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

TMNT MTC1

Sneaks(7/29) - 21935/30596 220654.27 219 shows

Early shows(7/31) - 18922/31353 395449.78 168 shows

Previews(8/1) - 25036/527826 409496.76 3352 shows

 

Thinking around 650K for sneaks since Katniss said 700 shows overall and weekend afternoon ensured good walkups. I think early shows tomorrow with PLF should be even higher. I am thinking 1.5m for that is possible with 500 odd shows overall. Conservatively 2m for early shows over 2 days.  As I said yesterday, tuesday number would be hard to predict with discount tuesday effect. We could compare with MI7 but this will skew families even more and so ATP could be even lower. 

 

Edit: All the data is from yesterday afternoon/evening and I could not post as I was busy. 

 

 

Well, IMO, the biggest wildcard is whether or not Paramount is gonna play games with its reported numbers again. I somehow suspect if the (alleged) Tue Only number is too low, Paramount will just fold all of the EA/Sneaks into Tuesday for PR reasons.

 

Even so, do think MI7 will still be the best comp, even though the family angle is well taken. Maybe somewhere between Mario D1 (with all of the early bird/matinee showings) and MI7?  For those that have Mario D1 comps that is (i.e. not me).

Edited July 30, 2023 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

Well, IMO, the biggest wildcard is whether or not Paramount is gonna play games with its reported numbers again. I somehow suspect if the (alleged) Tue Only number is too low, Paramount will just fold all of the EA/Sneaks into Tuesday for PR reasons.

 

Even so, do think MI7 is still be best comp, even though the family angle is well taken. Maybe somewhere between Mario D1 (with all of the early bird/matinee showings) and MI7?  For those that have Mario D1 comps that is (i.e. not me).

Mario opened on wednesday. So no discount ticketing effect. I cannot take the $ value above as the data I am pulling does not show discount ticketing effect(you need to sign into the site to see actual ticket prices). Charlie has said you need to discount 30% from regular day and that is one way to project. But due to discounting I feel MTC ratio should be lower. There would be push among families to see it on tuesday to save money. We have to wait until tuesday to confirm.

 

If you put a gun on my head, I would say 4-5m tuesday is possible with good walkups plus another 2m+ for early shows. Really good start for the movie which did not have any big buzz in social media like Barbenheimer.  

 

 

[emoviefan]

4 hours ago, filmlover said:

Would anyone be surprised if Meg 2 pulled a sub-$20M at this point? I wouldn't.

They should just release it in China since that is the only market that seems to care at all about it.  

[CJohn]

Someone save my lovely big ass shark.

[Dragoncaine]

3 hours ago, datpepper said:

Blue Beetle tix on sale this Tuesday

@Hilts

Oh this is going to be so funny

[emoviefan]

Well WB at least had Barbie  because it looks like it is back to the bombs with Meg 2 and Blue Beattle back to back. 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/29/2023 at 6:56 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

THE MEG 2: THE TRENCH

 

THURSDAY Previews 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
151	254	26294	0.96%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

36

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(0.149x) of Mi7

~$1.04M THUR Previews

 

(0.132x) of Fast X

~$991k THUR Previews

 

(0.128x) of RoTB

~$1.12M THUR Previews

 

Comp AVG: $1.05M

 

Still increasing against comps

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

THE MEG 2: THE TRENCH

 

THURSDAY Previews 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
151	293	26294	1.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

39

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(0.158x) of Mi7

~$1.11M THUR Previews

 

(0.145x) of Fast X

~$1.09M THUR Previews

 

(0.134x) of RoTB

~$1.18M THUR Previews

 

Comp AVG: $1.13M

 

Still increasing against comps. Heading to at least teens OW

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/29/2023 at 6:50 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

TMNT 

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
206	1116	37496	3.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

84

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

EA

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
10	632	1756	36.0%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

48

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-3

*Without EA

 

(1.246x) of Elemental

~$2.99M TUE Previews  W/O EA

 

(0.470x) of RoTB

~$4.14M TUE Previews W/O EA

 

(0.569x) of Mi7

~$3.98M TUE Previews W/O EA

 

AVG: $3.70M TUE only + $1.2M EA = $4.9M

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

TMNT 

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
206	1271	37496	3.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

155

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

EA

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
10	693	1756	39.5%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

61

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-2

*Without EA

 

(0.510x) of Fast X

~$3.82M TUE Previews  W/O EA

 

(0.447x) of RoTB

~$3.93M TUE Previews W/O EA

 

(0.603x) of Mi7

~$4.22M TUE Previews W/O EA

 

AVG: $3.99M TUE only + $1.2M EA = $5.2M

 

Tuesday looks like ~$4M to me

[Porthos]

On 7/30/2023 at 12:10 AM, Porthos said:

(link to post on old thread)

 

 Quick and Dirty Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem Sacto Report [T-3]

1698/14387 (11.80% sold) [+344 tickets] [+210 Sneak | +59 EA | +75 Tue]

 

0.62842x MI7 at T-3                      [5.53m]

0.41478x MI7 TUE ONLY at T-3    [2.90m]

 

***NO ADJUSTMENT FOR DISCOUNT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COMPS***:

1.44265x  GBA at T-3            [6.49m]

1.04172x Sonic 2 at T-3         [6.51m]

2.43266x Shazam 2 at T-3   [8.27m]

0.85844x RotB at T-3           [7.55m]

 

======

 

All comps except the Reported Tuesday MI7 comp went up.  Some by not a small amount (the full MI7 comp went up by a full million, for instance).

 

HOWEVER.  However, as I was pointing out earlier today, timing is something of an issue as, locally at least, there are far more Saturday Sneaks than there were Sunday (Walmart) Shopping.  Also the True Tue comp did in fact go down a tad, so fairly plausible we're seeing some shifting/shuffling going on.  Even so, that can only explain so much of the overall comp rises.

 

Regardless, even with timing issues, this does seem indeed to be something of a mini-Rise of the Beasts.  Next, I suppose, is seeing how the EA shows play out and just how much demand got burnt today + any signs of WOM from today's screenings.

 

Quick and Dirty Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem Sacto Report [T-2]

1979/14372 (13.77% sold) [+281 tickets] [+78 EA | +203 Tue]

 

0.60538x MI7 at T-2                      [5.33m]

0.43832x MI7 TUE ONLY at T-2    [3.07m]

 

***NO ADJUSTMENT FOR DISCOUNT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COMPS***:

1.31060x  GBA at T-2            [5.90m]

0.94418x Sonic 2 at T-2       [5.90m]

2.44623x Shazam 2 at T-2  [8.32m]

0.79097x RotB at T-2           [6.96m]

 

===

 

As probably to be expected, all comps (except Shazam 2, lol) went down.  Now we see how walkups are for Monday's EA showings.

[poweranimals]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem Sacto Report [T-2]

1979/14372 (13.77% sold) [+281 tickets] [+78 EA | +203 Tue]

 

0.60538x MI7 at T-2                      [5.33m]

0.43832x MI7 TUE ONLY at T-2    [3.07m]

 

***NO ADJUSTMENT FOR DISCOUNT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COMPS***:

1.31060x  GBA at T-2            [5.90m]

0.94418x Sonic 2 at T-2       [5.90m]

2.44623x Shazam 2 at T-2  [8.32m]

0.79097x RotB at T-2           [6.96m]

 

===

 

As probably to be expected, all comps (except Shazam 2, lol) went down.  Now we see how walkups are for Monday's EA showings.

Why is it expected? The reviews have been great.

[abracadabra1998]

12 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

Why is it expected? The reviews have been great.

T-4 into T-1 for every other movie (except MI7) happens during the week- Sunday into Wednesday. For TMNT, it’s happening from Friday into Monday, and that throws off pacing. People aren’t as likely to be buying tickets during the weekend when they’re doing other stuff. That’s why MI7 is still the most useful in my opinion (along with that damned Tuesday discount lol)