The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Flip]

5 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

That 1 single tracking right now is pointing to below 20m OW which would be one of the lowest for a modern SH movie and for DCEU (except WW84 but that was during Covid). How low was your expectation that that is not as bad lol

Like 12m 

[misterpepp]

Gran Turismo goes back on sale this Thursday, Aug 3

[keysersoze123]

Blue Beetle MTC1 previews - 10602/441462 188434.00 2116 shows

 

I dont have Shazam OD. But the update I did post in 2/26 which is 10 days into its presales. 

 

https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/30019-the-box-office-buzz-and-tracking-thread-december-2021-july-2023/?do=findComment&comment=4470337

Edited August 2, 2023 by keysersoze123

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Meg 2 MTC1 previews(T-2) - 17401/322460 293565.81 2320 shows

 

Since this is my 1st look, I do not have any clue about its daily pace but that total for T-2 is just meh and this is a sequel. I will check tomorrow to see where it can end up and may be look at friday to get a sense of its internal multiplier. But I am sure its OW in China should be higher and I am not that impressed by its presales there either 🙂

I can see this totally hit 55K+ which would be $3M ish.

[charlie Jatinder]

12 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Blue Beetle MTC1 previews - 10602/441462 188434.00 2116 shows

 

I dont have Shazam OD. But the update I did post in 2/26 which is 10 days into its presales. 

 

https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/30019-the-box-office-buzz-and-tracking-thread-december-2021-july-2023/?do=findComment&comment=4470337

Pretty good start. Around 28% of Flash first day. $3M previews may happen.

[charlie Jatinder]

TMNT MiniTC2

 

Sneak - 1821/2423 (15 showings) $17,240

EA - 1453/2726 (9 showings) $23,731

Previews - 20365/131254 (583 showings) $229,289

 

IDK what the fuck happened here. MiniTC2 don't even do Tuesday discount. Earlier in morning was thinking 10K ish Previews. 20K is like $12M day type number.

 

Oopsie. It seems I might have been using either Barbie or Oppie movie id in the code along with TMNT. So like my entire tracking for this film is wrong. 🫣

 

Previews - 5520/48923 (193 showings) $66,412

 

TUE previews should be around $3.75M considering TUE underindex in MiniTC2. Overall $5.75-6M possible

Edited August 2, 2023 by across the Jat verse

[Porthos]

I'm not sure if this is "damning with faint praise" or not, but locally...

 

Blue Beetle D1 sales (112) nearly matched Shazam! Fury of the Gods' D1 sales (118).

 

Now there is a caveat in that Shazam 2 went on sale 29 days before release and this is going on sale 18 days before release, so there is a slight discrepancy here.  Not major on D1 mind, but still worthy of noting.  Then again, also worth noting this is missing about a quarter of the theaters locally so it might have matched if they were all present.

 

Still, this might not be headed toward the überbomb status that some were thinking.  

 

(no, not even gonna Q&D this — not for a while at least)

 

[Unfitclock]

@across the Jat verse what does that suggest for the 5-day opening?

[Bobzaruni]

wtf is this TMNT release schedule lol. Is it monday EA, Tuesday previews, and Wednesday OD? So the 5.75M~ is just EA+Previews and no OD right?

[vafrow]

Blue Beetle, T-16, southern Ontario

 

Tickets only went online last night for the region and only slowly rolled out. Sales for the broader region are at 16 across 25 theatres and 84 showtimes.

 

With sale release happening without a lot of fanfare, I'll check in a couple of days to see if there's much movement, but, right now, pretty flat. It's better than the first read I got on Haunted Mansion, which had 7 tickets sold at T-26.

 

Its comparable to the first read I got on Gran Turismo, which had 18 tickets at T-20 before those shows got pulled.

[Krissykins]

TMNT fell -35% from Monday to Tuesday here in the UK. 
 

Full OD though, no previews. 

[M37]

My quick 2 cents (worth every penny!)
 

TMNT looks on track for ~$30M 3-day OW, maybe could stretch to $50M for the full opening

 

Meg 2 ~$2.5M preview (have a difficult time seeing it climb all the way to $3M), ~$20M OW

 

Blue Beetle - going to have to wait and see how much of a DC fan OD sales rush is left after Shazam 2 & Flash debacles, could play more like a GA action feature, but mid to high teens OW is probably the expectation level for now 

 

Strays - low teens I guess? Wait and see here 

 

Also, TMNT is probably the best shot at a $100M grosser for a while, with Barbie & Oppy holding onto top 2 spots for August. Last year it was only Bullet Train, Smile surprising with fantastic legs, and Black Adam for the Aug-Oct doldrums 

[Brainbug]

15 minutes ago, M37 said:

My quick 2 cents (worth every penny!)
 

TMNT looks on track for ~$30M 3-day OW, maybe could stretch to $50M for the full opening

 

Meg 2 ~$2.5M preview (have a difficult time seeing it climb all the way to $3M), ~$20M OW

 

Blue Beetle - going to have to wait and see how much of a DC fan OD sales rush is left after Shazam 2 & Flash debacles, could play more like a GA action feature, but mid to high teens OW is probably the expectation level for now 

 

Strays - low teens I guess? Wait and see here 

 

Also, TMNT is probably the best shot at a $100M grosser for a while, with Barbie & Oppy holding onto top 2 spots for August. Last year it was only Bullet Train, Smile surprising with fantastic legs, and Black Adam for the Aug-Oct doldrums 

 

Its obviously too early to tell how good the WOM for TMNT is, but i could imagine it performing a bit like Puss in Boots 2, maybe with a bigger opening, but a bit shorter legs.

[ThatWaluigiDude]

8 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Its obviously too early to tell how good the WOM for TMNT is, but i could imagine it performing a bit like Puss in Boots 2, maybe with a bigger opening, but a bit shorter legs.

I am thinking of a run similar to Bad Guys, with a slightly better opening. The next animated movie to open wide after it will be Paw Patrol almost two months from now and even so that one is for a totally different audience, so there is absolutely room for legs.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Meg 2	T-2	Jax	5	39	32	136	5,807	2.34%
		Phx	6	35	27	85	5,110	1.66%
		Ral	8	24	17	78	2,749	2.84%
	Total		19	98	76	299	13,666	2.19%

 

Meg 2 T-2 comps

 - Free Guy - .852x (1.87m)

 - Beast - 2.65x (2.45m)

 - Old - 2.27x (3.4m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.473x (2.14m)

 - Lost City (Thu) - .857x (2.14m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .912x (2.46m)

 - Death on the Nile (Thu) - 1.466x (1.61m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 2.08m

 

Meg 2 pace chart

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Meg 2	118.25%	64.96%		34.08%
Free Guy	47.48%	47.48%		15.08%
Beast	94.83%	34.48%		43.04%
Old	144.44%			32.00%
Knock at the Cabin	46.04%	25.18%		20.12%
Lost City	63.85%	21.13%	9.52%	27.84%
Jungle Cruise	83.24%	26.26%	31.82%	37.24%
Death on the Nile				23.64%

 

Continuing the slow ascent.  What is it about sharks and sneaking up on people?

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Meg 2	T-1	Jax	5	42	67	203	5,918	3.43%
		Phx	6	42	50	135	5,665	2.38%
		Ral	8	25	42	120	2,852	4.21%
	Total		19	109	159	458	14,435	3.17%

 

Meg 2 T-1 comps

 - Free Guy - 1.134x (2.49m)

 - Beast - 2.76x (2.55m)

 - Old - 2.27x (3.4m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.832x (2.66m)

 - Lost City (Thu) - .948x (2.37m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .991x (2.68m)

 - Death on the Nile (Thu) - 1.84x (2.02m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 2.47m

 

Meg 2 pace chart

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Meg 2	143.62%	62.23%		53.18%
Free Guy	45.32%	42.45%		15.10%
Beast	159.38%	29.69%	53.33%	46.90%
Old	158.97%	53.85%		53.03%
Knock at the Cabin	72.41%	26.21%	13.08%	23.15%
Lost City	101.25%	16.67%	20.00%	38.40%
Jungle Cruise	126.47%	24.02%	31.61%	40.85%
Death on the Nile				22.06%

 

Really good day.  Better increase than all comps, which are now all above 2m.  

 

 

Data labels are on for Meg 2.  Based on this, I am now setting my expectations at 2.8m+ and possibly pushing 3m by tomorrow.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-1	Jax	1	1	0	11	51	21.57%
		Phx	1	1	2	33	123	26.83%
	Total		3	3	2	44	174	25.29%
	T-7	Jax	2	2	0	9	841	1.07%
	T-8	Jax	5	7	14	69	960	7.19%
		Phx	1	1	3	34	208	16.35%
		Ral	1	1	0	14	261	5.36%
	Total		7	9	17	117	1,429	8.19%
Last Voyage	T-9	Jax	5	12	1	12	1,387	0.87%
		Phx	5	14	0	6	1,138	0.53%
		Ral	6	15	0	8	1,361	0.59%
	Total		16	41	1	26	3,886	0.67%

 

Last Voyage T-9 comps

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Black Phone - .263x (682k)

 - Knock at the Cabin - .263x (381k)

 - Northman - .241x (325k)

 - Green Knight - 1.13x (848k)

 - Talk to Me - .839x (1.04m)

 - Beast - 1x (925k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 937k

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-0	Jax	1	1	4	15	51	29.41%
		Phx	1	1	2	35	123	28.46%
	Total		3	3	6	50	174	28.74%
	T-6	Jax	2	2	-1	8	841	0.95%
	T-7	Jax	5	7	11	80	960	8.33%
		Phx	1	1	10	44	208	21.15%
		Ral	1	1	3	17	261	6.51%
	Total		7	9	24	141	1,429	9.87%
Last Voyage	T-8	Jax	5	12	6	18	1,387	1.30%
		Phx	5	14	2	8	1,138	0.70%
		Ral	6	15	2	10	1,361	0.73%
	Total		16	41	10	36	3,886	0.93%

 

Last Voyage T-8 comps

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Black Phone - .34x (883k)

 - Knock at the Cabin - .346x (502k)

 - Northman - .275x (371k)

 - Green Knight - 1x (750k)

 - Talk to Me - .973x (1.21m)

 - Beast - .947x (876k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 956k

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Strays	T-16	Jax	6	15	1	9	1,897	0.47%
		Phx	5	20	2	14	2,081	0.67%
		Ral	6	18	0	16	2,703	0.59%
	Total		17	53	3	39	6,681	0.58%
Strays (EA)	T-15	Jax	2	2	0	3	225	1.33%
		Phx	2	2	0	0	279	0.00%
		Ral	3	3	0	0	418	0.00%
	Total		7	7	0	3	922	0.33%

 

Strays (Total) T-16 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 3.5x (1.75m)

 - D&D (Total) - .261x (1.46m)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - 1.2x (1.32m)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - 1.75x (1.31m)

 - Cocaine Bear - .385x (771k)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.29m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Blue Beetle	T-15	Jax	4	30	23	23	4,950	0.46%
		Phx	5	37	30	30	6,488	0.46%
		Ral	4	13	25	25	2,447	1.02%
	Total		13	80	78	78	13,885	0.56%
Strays	T-15	Jax	6	15	0	9	1,897	0.47%
		Phx	5	20	-1	13	2,081	0.62%
		Ral	6	18	2	18	2,703	0.67%
	Total		17	53	1	40	6,681	0.60%
Strays (EA)	T-14	Jax	3	3	0	3	352	0.85%
		Phx	3	3	0	0	403	0.00%
		Ral	4	4	0	0	506	0.00%
	Total		10	10	0	3	1,261	0.24%

 

Strays (Total) T-15 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 3.58x (1.79m)

 - D&D (Total) - missed

 - Joy Ride (Total) - .935x (1.03m)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - 1.54x (1.15m)

 - Cocaine Bear - .387x (775k)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.06m

 

Blue Beetle day 1 comps

 - Black Adam - .254x (1.93m)

 - Shazam 2 - .574x (1.95m)

 - Black Widow - .145x (1.92m)

 - Eternals - .102x (971k)

 - Shang-Chi - .134x (1.18m)

 

I'm not sure what expectations are... but under 2m would be pretty bad, right?

[divesyn]

12 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Meg 2	T-1	Jax	5	42	67	203	5,918	3.43%
		Phx	6	42	50	135	5,665	2.38%
		Ral	8	25	42	120	2,852	4.21%
	Total		19	109	159	458	14,435	3.17%

 

Meg 2 T-1 comps

 - Free Guy - 1.134x (2.49m)

 - Beast - 2.76x (2.55m)

 - Old - 2.27x (3.4m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.832x (2.66m)

 - Lost City (Thu) - .948x (2.37m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .991x (2.68m)

 - Death on the Nile (Thu) - 1.84x (2.02m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 2.47m

 

Meg 2 pace chart

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Meg 2	143.62%	62.23%		53.18%
Free Guy	45.32%	42.45%		15.10%
Beast	159.38%	29.69%	53.33%	46.90%
Old	158.97%	53.85%		53.03%
Knock at the Cabin	72.41%	26.21%	13.08%	23.15%
Lost City	101.25%	16.67%	20.00%	38.40%
Jungle Cruise	126.47%	24.02%	31.61%	40.85%
Death on the Nile				22.06%

 

Really good day.  Better increase than all comps, which are now all above 2m.  

 

 

Data labels are on for Meg 2.  Based on this, I am now setting my expectations at 2.8m+ and possibly pushing 3m by tomorrow.

meg 2 25m OW incoming

[Brainbug]

9 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Blue Beetle	T-15	Jax	4	30	23	23	4,950	0.46%
		Phx	5	37	30	30	6,488	0.46%
		Ral	4	13	25	25	2,447	1.02%
	Total		13	80	78	78	13,885	0.56%
Strays	T-15	Jax	6	15	0	9	1,897	0.47%
		Phx	5	20	-1	13	2,081	0.62%
		Ral	6	18	2	18	2,703	0.67%
	Total		17	53	1	40	6,681	0.60%
Strays (EA)	T-14	Jax	3	3	0	3	352	0.85%
		Phx	3	3	0	0	403	0.00%
		Ral	4	4	0	0	506	0.00%
	Total		10	10	0	3	1,261	0.24%

 

Strays (Total) T-15 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 3.58x (1.79m)

 - D&D (Total) - missed

 - Joy Ride (Total) - .935x (1.03m)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - 1.54x (1.15m)

 - Cocaine Bear - .387x (775k)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.06m

 

Blue Beetle day 1 comps

 - Black Adam - .254x (1.93m)

 - Shazam 2 - .574x (1.95m)

 - Black Widow - .145x (1.92m)

 - Eternals - .102x (971k)

 - Shang-Chi - .134x (1.18m)

 

I'm not sure what expectations are... but under 2m would be pretty bad, right?

 

Expectations for Blue Beetle are near zero, but under 2M would be catastrophic regardless. The film has a 120M budget, so this preview number would lock its massive bomb status in.

Edited August 2, 2023 by Brainbug

[filmlover]

Barbie literally saving WB from two potentially big losses following it.