The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

16 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

Is Barbie OW going down?

I joined @XXR's Eras Tour club. That said let us see how things go.

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

Don't expect this to play like movies I guess. Will be very presales heavy. Unless ofcourse.

Friday is like previews as shows are starting at 6PM in US. But sat/sun release is at blockbuster level. Already at near 7K shows for both days. Once you see sat/sun data from MTC1 you should be able to gauge the potential.

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Friday is like previews as shows are starting at 6PM in US. But sat/sun release is at blockbuster level. Already at near 7K shows for both days. Once you see sat/sun data from MTC1 you should be able to gauge the potential.

I don't doubt that, just not sure if it can be backloaded. Its beaten Endgame in AMC.

[HummingLemon]

Is Ultron gonna get kicked out of the top 10 openings?

[Madhuvan]

18 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

I don't doubt that, just not sure if it can be backloaded. Its beaten Endgame in AMC.

Yup it will be very frontloaded

Swifties  fans buy everything first day itself. I think 100m could happen but that's a big IF for now

[vale9001]

Even if It's just for fan the point is how many fan do you have. According to Wikipedia 20M people tried to buy a ticket for the concerts (something there Is 250-1000 dollars).

To make 100M First weekend this needs "Just" like 6-7M tickets. If It has like they wrote 4k theaters there is the space for all of this, so i'm starting to think it's gonna make It 😶

Edited September 1, 2023 by vale9001

[Porthos]

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-43 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	123	11367	16609	5242	31.56%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	1
Total Seats Sold Today	5242

 

Day One Comps:

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH	39.48		13279	13279		0/225	14920/28199	47.09%		28183	18.60%		19.74m
MoM	77.67		6749	6749		0/329	34167/40916	16.49%		21117	24.82%		27.96m
Thor 4	125.98		4161	4161		0/228	27442/31603	13.17%		16962	30.90%		36.53m
BP2	161.09		3254	3254		0/279	31690/34980	9.30%		16800	31.20%		45.11m
AM3	259.63		2019	2019		0/231	30346/32365	6.40%		10475	50.04%		45.44m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1706/6150  [27.74% sold]

 

% of Final Totals: [NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR ATP DIFFERENCE WHATSOEVER]

58.34% of Avatar 2's final total           [9.92m]

113.43% of Oppenheimer's final total [11.91m]

43.40% of Barbie's final total              [9.68m]

 

====

 

LOL.  Just L-O-L.

 

No great comps here, I think for Day 1s.  But make do with what we have.  The 43 days of pre-sales isn't helping with comps, either.  Chose a couple of other movies to see what the percentage of final sales was, to try to get a grasp on just how big Day 1 really was.  Barbie ain't a good comp simply due to the immense gap between ATPs.  Even Ava 2 comes up short, I think.  Oppenheimer is its own thing locally, as while Barbie had something of a screen crunch, Oppenheimer had a yuge one.

 

Anyway, not gonna draw conclusions on where this is headed except: Lots and lots and lots of money

Edited September 1, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

54 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-43 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	123	11367	16609	5242	31.56%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	1
Total Seats Sold Today	5242

 

Day One Comps:

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH	39.48		13279	13279		0/225	14920/28199	47.09%		28183	18.60%		19.74m
MoM	77.67		6749	6749		0/329	34167/40916	16.49%		21117	24.82%		27.96m
Thor 4	125.98		4161	4161		0/228	27442/31603	13.17%		16962	30.90%		36.53m
BP2	161.09		3254	3254		0/279	31690/34980	9.30%		16800	31.20%		45.11m
AM3	259.63		2019	2019		0/231	30346/32365	6.40%		10475	50.04%		45.44m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1706/6150  [27.74% sold]

 

% of Final Totals: [NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR ATP DIFFERENCE WHATSOEVER]

58.34% of Avatar 2's final total           [9.92m]

113.43% of Oppenheimer's final total [11.91m]

43.40% of Barbie's final total              [9.68m]

 

====

 

LOL.  Just L-O-L.

 

No great comps here, I think for Day 1s.  But make do with what we have.  The 43 days of pre-sales isn't helping with comps, either.  Chose a couple of other movies to see what the percentage of final sales was, to try to get a grasp on just how big Day 1 really was.  Barbie ain't a good comp simply due to the immense gap between ATPs.  Even Ava 2 comes up short, I think.  Oppenheimer is its own thing locally, as while Barbie had something of a screen crunch, Oppenheimer had a yuge one.

 

Anyway, not gonna draw conclusions on where this is headed except: Lots and lots and lots of money

 

BTW, I want to stress something here.

 

I comped against MCU films not as any sort of realistic prediction of what TET is eventually gonna do on Opening Night.   Coz honestly, I don't know.  No, I wanted to show that it could not only hang with every recent big MCU film not named No Way Home, it could trade blows and actually best many of them.

 

That's frankly nuts.

 

Should probably also add here that TET is missing about 25% of my local market.  I do expect all of the Cinema West joints to eventually get it.  The TrueIMAX screen and the local drive-in, I am much much less certain about.

 

Anyway, just a nutty nutty nutty day.

[Joyous Legion]

Returning after brief hiatus for the TRUE CINEMA EVENT 2023

[vafrow]

19 hours ago, vafrow said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour, southern Ontario, D1, hour 2, T-44

 

Total sales:  5620

New Sales: 5620

Growth from yesterday: n/a

Theatre Count:  50

Showtimes:  198

Tickets per showtime: 28.384

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

I have nothing that can really serve as a comp on this. Even things I tracked at a local level that were big like ATSV or Barbie did not have starts like this. My D1 on ATSV locally was 24 sales compared to 86 for hour 2 locally here, and doesn't take into account the ticket price.

 

Barbie locally was slow, as it got added after other theatres, so it's no help.

 

To provide context and scale though, comparing TSwifts hour 2 figure (at over six weeks out) to morning of figures for other recent movies over the same radius.

 

4.84x T-1 Blue Beetle

6.33x T-1 Equalizer

7.97x T-1 Gran Turismo

 

My figures are also so out of date, that when I've lost count, i can't go back and double check a number because it's changing so rapidly.

 

I think it's safe to say we have our next event film.

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour, southern Ontario, D1, hour 22, T-43

 

Total sales:  16,662

New Sales: 11,002

Growth from yesterday: 196%

Theatre Count:  50

Showtimes:  206

Tickets per showtime: 80.7

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

Again, no comps for this regional coverage outside recent films, so comparing against pulls from morning of just to get scale.

 

9.61x T-1 Blue Beetle

18.72x T-1 Equalizer

23.58x T-1 Gran Turismo

 

Some observations on sales:

 

-Early evening shows are mainly sold out. Lots of showings that are down to front row seats for example.

 

-Theres a lack of late shows in many theatres. Only the early evening. I think showtime decisions were made quickly, and likely under estimated demand. I imagine they would prefer to have a 6:00 pm show and a 10:00 pm show rather than a 7:30, which is what many have.

 

-They haven't figured out what they're doing with Dbox. Those seats are remaining unsold. 

 

-Unlike stateside, shows start as early as 12:30. Those shows are less busy actually, but I'm guessing that they fill up in time. This feels like something people will skip school for, or take an afternoon off work.

 

-The usual pattern for MTC4 is to confirm all showtimes the Tuesday of the week before, so if there's an expansion of capacity, that's when I'd expect it. But, I imagine there will be a revisiting of how much they can dedicate, especially as Exorcist has moved.

 

My entirely too early prediction, with caveats of lack of comps and all of that, is that this will have an opening Friday of $50-60M. 

 

 

 

[stripe]

Possible new October OW record? What a surprise!

[XXR & Friends]

5 hours ago, across the Jat verse said:

It’s beaten Endgame in AMC.

Clarify this statement. Beaten it how?

[CJohn]

47 minutes ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

Clarify this statement. Beaten it how?

Pre-sales of the first 24 hours.

[vafrow]

$3.75M for Equalizer

 

My numbers came in much lower. Possibly driven by different demographics for southern Ontario market. Also, just a lack of comps for me, but now I have one more at least.

 

 

[dobrevv]

https://investor.amctheatres.com/newsroom/news-details/2023/TAYLOR-SWIFT--THE-ERAS-TOUR-Concert-Film-Shatters-Advance-Ticket-Sales-Records-at-AMC-Theatres-26-Million-in-Ticket-Revenue-Sold-on-Thursday/default.aspx

[Cap]

7 minutes ago, dobrevv said:

https://investor.amctheatres.com/newsroom/news-details/2023/TAYLOR-SWIFT--THE-ERAS-TOUR-Concert-Film-Shatters-Advance-Ticket-Sales-Records-at-AMC-Theatres-26-Million-in-Ticket-Revenue-Sold-on-Thursday/default.aspx

It beat NWH by 9.1M in sales.  LMFAO. That is insane. 

[Madhuvan]

This is just one example of how presales in America would be if they had superstar culture like in India. 

 

Also just another example of Taylor being 21st century biggest star

[Issac Newton]

Edit: Already posted

Edited September 1, 2023 by Issac Newton

[Inceptionzq]

12 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1409

2629

53.59%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1216

1335

91.09%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
6313	N/A	17009	37.12%	13	106

 

0.612	Barbie T-0
1.462	Doctor Strange MoM 11.5 hours
0.976	NWH 11 hours

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1728

2629

65.73%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1363

2492

54.70%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 13 HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
7240	927	18466	39.21%	13	124

 

0.702	Barbie T-0	15.66M
1.421	Doctor Strange MoM 34 hours	51.17M
0.748	NWH 24 hours	37.39M

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, Cap said:

It beat NWH by 9.1M in sales.  LMFAO. That is insane. 

 

What gets me on these records, is that these other films it's compared to have extensive marketing campaigns and known dates. People who were geared up for NWH or Endgame had those dates circled. They freed their calendars, and were ready to go when ticket sales dropped.

 

This just happened out of the blue. No prep time. No lead time to organize with friends to coordinate. Just an announcement and immediate sale.

 

It's why I feel like sales will continue at a decent pace this week as people get themselves organized.

Edited September 1, 2023 by vafrow