The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, dobrevv said:

'Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour' Industry First Day Presales $37M+, Bigger Than 'Force Awakens'; Concert Pic Headed For $70M+ Opening

https://deadline.com/2023/09/taylor-swift-eras-tour-film-presales-box-office-projection-1235534031/

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

3 minutes ago, dobrevv said:

'Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour' Industry First Day Presales $37M+, Bigger Than 'Force Awakens'; Concert Pic Headed For $70M+ Opening

https://deadline.com/2023/09/taylor-swift-eras-tour-film-presales-box-office-projection-1235534031/

$37M from just the big three should make it the 3rd biggest 24 hours ever, behind Endgame and NWH.

[abracadabra1998]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour MTC1

Friday(10/20) - 64212/834282 1298844.68 4678 shows

Sat (10/21) - 78950/827370 1634958.50 4692 shows

 

I dont think I have seen 2nd weekend sales being this big this early. Its going to have really good 2nd weekend hold as well. 2nd Friday seem to be playing full day as well.

Obviously those are great numbers, but keep in mind many would be weekday sales are shifted to the weekend after (as well as any spillover effect)

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

What Happens Later T-43: 13.86% Awareness

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes T-78: 23.61% Awareness

The Iron Claw T-113: 13.18% Awareness

Migration T-113: 19.18% Awareness

Boys in the Boat T-116: 9.77% Awareness

The Color Purple T-116: 31.95% Awareness

Madame Web T-167: 21.48% Awareness

 

The Equalizer 3 T-2: 54.97% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 90% chance of 20M, 70% chance of 30M

Medium Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M

 

My Big Fat Greek Wedding T-8: 39.52% Awareness

Final Awareness: 34% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 33% chance of 10M

 

The Nun II T-8: 52.08% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 90% chance of 20M, 70% chance of 30M, 40% chance of 40M, 30% chance of 50M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 30M

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-the-creator-paw-patrol-the-mighty-movie-and-saw-x/
 

 

 

No Long Term projection for Taylor Swift, @Shawn???

 

 

Spoiler

 

Edited September 1, 2023 by Porthos

[Hilts]

21 hours ago, Hilts said:

Okay Taylor, I guess this is as good a day as any for my official tracking debut! It was fun. This covers Oklahoma.

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-43	16	93	0	6,148	6,148	15,916	38.63%

 

MTC1: 4,299/6,212 - 69.2% sold 🔥

MTC2: 812/4,576 - 17.7% sold

MTC3: 957/4,492 - 21.3% sold

 

No actual sellouts just yet but a few of my MTC1s are at 90%+ capacity already.

 

No relevant Day 1 comps as this is just crazy. T-0 comps below which I expect to rise much higher shortly as more shows are added.

 

T-0 Comps
Barbie					0.622x	=	$13.12m
Oppenheimer					1.263x	=	$13.26m
Barbenheimer					0.417x	=	$13.17m

 

Might drop in with an Equalizer 3 prediction in a bit.

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-43	16	93	0	6,148	6,148	15,916	38.63%
T-42	19	124	0	2,134	8,282	23,809	34.79%

 

MTC1: 5,172/9,680 - 53.4% sold

MTC2: 1,155/4,607 - 25.1% sold

MTC3: 1,517/4,677 - 32.4% sold

 

T-0 Comp
Barbie					0.838x	=	$17.67m

 

Expanded to couple of smaller chains since yesterday. Better pace for MTC2 / MTC3 as MTC1 scrambling to add a ton more seats to try and meet demand! IMAX / Dolby shows also now added which I assume were being held originally for Exorcist as they were not there yesterday.

 

Still plenty of activity - tickets sold today is even with entire presale run of MI7 (Tues) here. Tomorrow will be interesting.

 

I am not looking further ahead than Friday as it's too much for me (will leave that to the veterans 😉) but this does not look like it will be as front-loaded as initially thought. I didn't realise but with a running time of almost 3 hours that will certainly limit what this can do and increase spill-over not only to Sat/Sun but the following week(s). 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

49 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

No Long Term projection for Taylor Swift, @Shawn???

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Not enough space for that many digits 😮‍💨

[Ledmonkey96]

Pity WB won't release Metalocalypse: Army of the Doomstar for the same weekend....

[Arlborn]

52 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Obviously those are great numbers, but keep in mind many would be weekday sales are shifted to the weekend after (as well as any spillover effect)

Yeah, I’m starting to think this will have real crazy weekends because you can’t watch it during the  week and the buzz will just increase all week long between weekends…

 

I am thinking we’ll be getting a couple of over 100M weekends out of it actually.

[Taylor]

5 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

Yeah, I’m starting to think this will have real crazy weekends because you can’t watch it during the  week and the buzz will just increase all week long between weekends…

 

I am thinking we’ll be getting a couple of over 100M weekends out of it actually.

I could absolutely see her making the shows the weekend 1989 comes out (October 27) extra special somehow, too. Premiering music videos, special appearances, extra footage, etc. She's incredibly smart.

[el sid]

The Nun II counted today for next Thursday. 6 days to go:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 84 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 77 (5 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 2 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 4 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 12 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 53 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 91 (5 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 323.

Comps (all six films counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday = The Nun II has 3 days left): M3gan (2.75M from previews) had 274 sold tickets,
Smile (2M) had 213,
Prey for the Devil (660k) had 115,
The Invitation (775k) had 96,
HK (4.85M) had 591
and HE (5.4M) had 906 sold tickets.
The Pope's Exorcist (850k) had on Wednesday of the release week 176 sold tickets.
And The Boogeyman (1.1M) finally (= on Thursday for Thursday) had 173 sold tickets.

So far too uneven from the comps to guess a preview number but that was a good start. I hope for ca. 500 sold tickets on Monday (of course more is welcome) which would ca. be on par with Halloween Kills.

Edited September 1, 2023 by el sid

[abracadabra1998]

19 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St.Paul Area Previews:

 

Taylor Swift: Eras Tour (T-43):

Day: T-43	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	77	5807	5807	12843	45.22

 

Comps (Last day I tracked each of these):

 

0.66x Barbie w/ EA at T-1: $14.6 Million

1.2x Oppenheimer at T-1: $12.6 Million

1.33x Mission Impossible w/ EA at T-0: $11.67 Million

 

Basically at T-43 it has outsold Oppenheimer the day before its release and Mission Impossible 1 hour before the start of its run... LOL

 

I might keep comping like this, because I think it's interesting and really do think it is useless to comp with normal releases because this is the most frontloaded thing I have ever seen. It's all about the smaller chains now; my 5 MTC1 theaters average over 95% capacity filled, but the other theaters range anything 3 to 25%.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Taylor Swift: Eras Tour (T-42):

Day: T-42	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	91	2308	8115	15525	52.27

 

Yesterday, I wondered if non-MTC1 chains would show the same growth... well here's a stat for you:

- % of Yesterday's new sales that were MTC1: 89%

- % of today's new sales that were MTC1: 43%

 

Now that's not exactly surprising, given capacity issues (even though 3 of the 5 MTC1 theaters I track have already added more shows... and those are mostly near sell outs already). But the volume of the other chains is pleasantly surprising, and I think it quiets some of the doubts I had yesterday. This thing is a MONSTER.

 

Anyways, here are some (mostly irrelevant) comps, again last day I tracked each of them:

 

0.92x Barbie w/ EA at T-1: $20.4 Million

1.68x Oppenheimer at T-1: $17.65 Million

 

Yep, almost at the number of sales Barbie had one day before it came out. 

Edited September 1, 2023 by abracadabra1998

[abracadabra1998]

Just now, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Taylor Swift: Eras Tour (T-42):

Day: T-43	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	91	2308	8115	15525	52.27

 

Yesterday, I wondered if non-MTC1 chains would show the same growth... well here's a stat for you:

- % of Yesterday's new sales that were MTC1: 89%

- % of today's new sales that were MTC1: 43%

 

Now that's not exactly surprising, given capacity issues (even though 3 of the 5 MTC1 theaters I track have already added more shows... and those are mostly near sell outs already). But the volume of the other chains is pleasantly surprising, and I think it quiets some of the doubts I had yesterday. This thing is a MONSTER.

 

Anyways, here are some (mostly irrelevant) comps, again last day I tracked each of them:

 

0.92x Barbie w/ EA at T-1: $20.4 Million

1.68x Oppenheimer at T-1: $17.65 Million

 

Yep, almost at the number of sales Barbie had one day before it came out. 

 

Forgot to mention, I'm going to track this one like I usually do, twice a week until its week of release then every day. So every Monday and Friday over the next few weeks. Although they got me to coach a middle school sport starting next week so some changes will be coming around the times I track these (probably shifting to 7 PM CST, as opposed to around 4 PM usually).

 

Unrelated, but when I told one of my middle schoolers yesterday about this concert, she almost passed out!

[Hilts]

21 hours ago, Hilts said:

Oklahoma - Thursday Previews

 

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-11	15	35	0	3	33	4,267	0.77%
T-10	15	35	0	3	36	4,267	0.84%
T-9	18	37	0	5	41	4,136	0.99%
T-8	18	37	0	8	49	4,136	1.18%
T-7	18	37	0	1	50	4,136	1.21%
Comps
Strays					0.549x	=	$0.60m
Joy Ride					1.351x	=	$1.49m
Barbie					0.019x	=	$0.39m
Asteroid City					0.521x	=	$0.57m

 

Not a great day as I thought it may be picking up some steam yesterday, but there was a distraction.

 

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3							OK
Thursday - showings starting 5pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-10	15	35	0	3	36	4,267	0.84%
T-9	18	37	0	5	41	4,136	0.99%
T-8	18	37	0	8	49	4,136	1.18%
T-7	18	37	0	1	50	4,136	1.21%
T-6	19	38	0	6	56	4,167	1.34%
Comps
Strays					0.589x	=	$0.65m
Joy Ride					0.903x	=	$0.99m
Barbie					0.018x	=	$0.38m
Asteroid City					0.544x	=	$0.60m

 

Not sure this can make it to $1m. Will add NHF comp soon but a bit early due to shorter window.

 

[Hilts]

21 hours ago, Hilts said:

Oklahoma - Thursday Previews

 

The Nun II
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-7	22	83	0	61	61	16,223	0.38%

 

Day 1 Comps
Insidious: The Red Door					1.452x	=	$7.26m
Haunted Mansion					1.271x	=	$3.94m

 

Very good start. Will add Talk To Me and Last Voyage later if relevant as they both had tepid starts in comparison and the shorter window may skew things a tad but Insidious is the best comp here for sure.

 

The Nun II							OK
Thursday - showings starting 4pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-7	22	83	0	61	61	16,223	0.38%
T-6	23	84	0	30	91	16,293	0.56%

 

Comps
Insidious: The Red Door					0.948x	=	$4.74m
Talk To Me					2.844x	=	$3.54m
The Last Voyage Of The Demeter					2.935x	=	$2.20m

 

Switched to T-6 comps. Should have a clearer picture tomorrow of where this is headed.

[keysersoze123]

Taylor Swift Eras tour MTC2 Friday - 131158/410849 2709742.42 2815 shows

 

It took forever to get the data but this is also in really strong territory. Thor 4 was at this level T-5 🙂 Plus with way higher ATP(normally movies have 13-14 ATP at MTC2), its $ level is closer to T-1 levels of Thor/Wakanda :-).

[Shawn Robbins]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

No Long Term projection for Taylor Swift, @Shawn???

 

 

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I'm a Katy Kat, always and forever. Who is this Taylor Swift you speak of?

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

12 minutes ago, Shawn said:

I'm a Katy Kat, always and forever. Who is this Taylor Swift you speak of?

Local indie artist.

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-43

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
190	7848	34353	22.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

11

 

COMPS

First few hours

 

Since there's no real good comp, i'll just bring out all the big guns. 

 

(8.979x) of Barbie

~$189M FRIDAY

 

(2.092x) of GOTG3

~$36.6M FRIDAY

 

(3.447x) of ATSV

~$59.8M FRIDAY

 

(12.740x) of Oppenheimer 

~$133.7M FRIDAY

 

(5.180x) of TLM

~$53.36M FRIDAY

 

Would I be shocked if the ERA TOUR takes the OW crown from Barbie, no...

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-42

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
195	8753	35312	24.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 4:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

905

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SELLOUTS

11

 

COMPS

T-0

 

No good comps this far out so I'll just compare to T-0 since volume is already absurdly high 

 

(0.652x) of Barbie ~$13.7M FRIDAY 

(0.809x) of GOTG3~$14.16M FRIDAY

(0.783x) of ATSV~$13.59M FRIDAY

(1.664x) of Oppenheimer ~$17.48M FRIDAY

(1.307x) of TLM~$13.46M FRIDAY

 

COMP AVG: $14.48M

 

So this essentially means if sales were to stop today, OD would be at ~$15M+ (not accounting for ATP hike)

Edited September 1, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

4 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

905

 

What are the 2nd day sales of some other major films you’ve tracked?