The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

33 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

$300m total is excellent outcome and what it likely will do unless it becomes a bigger event than expected 

I definitely agree. Presales could stop now and OW would still be one of the biggest of the year. 

[Hilts]

On 9/1/2023 at 7:17 PM, Hilts said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-43	16	93	0	6,148	6,148	15,916	38.63%
T-42	19	124	0	2,134	8,282	23,809	34.79%

 

MTC1: 5,172/9,680 - 53.4% sold

MTC2: 1,155/4,607 - 25.1% sold

MTC3: 1,517/4,677 - 32.4% sold

 

T-0 Comp
Barbie					0.838x	=	$17.67m

 

Expanded to couple of smaller chains since yesterday. Better pace for MTC2 / MTC3 as MTC1 scrambling to add a ton more seats to try and meet demand! IMAX / Dolby shows also now added which I assume were being held originally for Exorcist as they were not there yesterday.

 

Still plenty of activity - tickets sold today is even with entire presale run of MI7 (Tues) here. Tomorrow will be interesting.

 

I am not looking further ahead than Friday as it's too much for me (will leave that to the veterans 😉) but this does not look like it will be as front-loaded as initially thought. I didn't realise but with a running time of almost 3 hours that will certainly limit what this can do and increase spill-over not only to Sat/Sun but the following week(s). 

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-43	16	93	0	6,148	6,148	15,916	38.63%
T-42	19	124	0	2,134	8,282	23,809	34.79%
T-41	19	133	0	869	9,151	25,027	36.56%

 

MTC1: 5,673/10,784 - 52.6% sold

MTC2: 1,323/5,175 - 25.6% sold

MTC3: 1,645/4,677 - 35.2% sold

 

T-0 Comps
Barbie					0.926x	=	$19.53m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					3.034x	=	$21.85m

 

Basically at $20m now. Not sure where it gets to until it starts to level out. Average of 100 tickets per day would take it to $28m-$32m. **This does not even consider ATP differences**. Imagine walkups will be even greater now it has the weekend to itself though.

 

Since I had some extra time I could not resist taking a peek at Saturday.

 

272 showings / 4,548 total tickets sold. So ~50% of Friday which lines up pretty close with Shawn's earlier data pull.

Edited September 2, 2023 by Hilts
ATP clarification

[XXR & Friends]

I know everyone is aware that ATP will be higher than normal, but something important to remember about this entire weekend is that there is ZERO discounted prices anywhere. No matinee prices, no specials or deals. Whatever the price is at  7PM on Friday, it'll be the same at 10AM on Saturday or Sunday. 

Friday's ATP vs an equivalent 2023 blockbuster's Thursday ATP may end up only being 30-40% higher on average, but Saturday/Sunday could literally have double the ATP in some chains. Just keep that in mind when you're prognosticating ticket sales vs actual box office. 

 

 

[keysersoze123]

10 minutes ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

I know everyone is aware that ATP will be higher than normal, but something important to remember about this entire weekend is that there is ZERO discounted prices anywhere. No matinee prices, no specials or deals. Whatever the price is at  7PM on Friday, it'll be the same at 10AM on Saturday or Sunday. 

Friday's ATP vs an equivalent 2023 blockbuster's Thursday ATP may end up only being 30-40% higher on average, but Saturday/Sunday could literally have double the ATP in some chains. Just keep that in mind when you're prognosticating ticket sales vs actual box office. 

 

 

I concur. Friday ATP would be like 30% higher at MTC1 and about 50% higher at MTC2(compared to thursday previews). Saturday PS is about 50% higher at MTC1 and 80-90% higher at MTC2. I think smaller chains could be even more ridiculous like Megaplex or Emagine etc which are only in small markets. Shows are also expanding over the weekend. MTC1 has ~8300 while MTC2 has 6046 shows. While Friday is at 60% capacity at MTC1, saturday has sold < 25%. So there is huge potential for growth. Let us see how the demand grows to the release date and what does TS do up the ante.

[XXR & Friends]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I concur. Friday ATP would be like 30% higher at MTC1 and about 50% higher at MTC2(compared to thursday previews). Saturday PS is about 50% higher at MTC1 and 80-90% higher at MTC2. I think smaller chains could be even more ridiculous like Megaplex or Emagine etc which are only in small markets. Shows are also expanding over the weekend. MTC1 has ~8300 while MTC2 has 6046 shows. While Friday is at 60% capacity at MTC1, saturday has sold < 25%. So there is huge potential for growth. Let us see how the demand grows to the release date and what does TS do up the ante.

 

Knowing her history, she will do something to prop this up even higher unless of course her and the team are solely focused on 1989 TV which drops 2 weeks after the film comes out. 

The more I think about it, the more I'm starting to believe this COULD challenge for at least the 2nd biggest DOM OW ever. It would likely get there with about the same amount of tickets sold as Barbie OW. I think it all just comes down to how hard she promotes to and pushes through her fanbase. 

[Relevation]

11 hours ago, Relevation said:

My original post wasn’t saying it would do $50M Fri, it was saying that the TS movie did $50M in total sales in its first 24 hrs. 
 

But to elaborate on my weekend split, here’s how we get to the numbers I threw out. I took a quick glance my local market to see showtimes, and I count 70 showtimes off 10 theaters for Friday including smaller and larger theaters. So, let’s average that off and say the average theater can fit 7 showtimes for TS for Friday.
 

Now for ATP, I do think you’re underestimating the ATP since 
 

A - you neglected to factor in the PLF ticket price bump where tickets are going for like $22-23 and

B - There is not gonna be a full 25% under 12 for this movie. Endgame had 18% families, including parents. Now I recognize that prob skewed a bit older but still, 25% is huge. I’d personally wager around like 15% under 12. 
 

Using my local market as a comp again, those 70 showtimes were 78.57% standard and 21.43% PLF. If we assume all parents are taking their kids to regular standard, then you’re looking at a split of 15% child price, 63% standard price, and 21% PLF price assuming Friday is filled to capacity (which at some theaters in this 10 theater sample I’m using has already happened after two days). So using a flat $22 price for all PLF shows, that math gets me an ATP of $19.12. So if we run with an average auditorium size of 150 seats, theeeeen

 

150 seats * 7 showings = 1,050 admissions per theater 

1,050 admissions * $19.12 ATP = $20,076 per theater average

$20,076 * 4000 locations results in a Friday gross of $80,304,000 if all showings are filled to capacity. So from there, I don’t think $70M is that hard. 
 

Ill do my shpeel for SAT and SUN later, this took longer than I expected lol

OKAY here is my suggested path to $115M Sat

 

Using a sample of 9 theaters in my local market for Saturday, I count 110 showtimes total. This averages out to about 12 showtimes per theater. This sample has a much lower PLF percentage, topping out at just 7% PLF and 93% standard. So, if we again assume 15% of total tickets are for children and all of them are standard, then we get a ticket price split of 78% standard, 15% children, and 7% PLF if Saturday is filled to capacity. This split gets me an ATP for Saturday of $19.02. So again assuming an average auditorium size of 150 seats, theeeeeen 

 

150 seats * 12 showtimes per theater = 1800 admissions per theater 

1800 admissions * 19.02 ATP = $34,236 per theater average 

$34,236 * 4000 theaters = A capacity limit on Saturday of $136,944,000. So from there, The Eras Tour needs to hit a capacity percentage of 83.97% to hit my predicted $115M Sat. Which based on sales for the first two days seems doable imo. Will do Sunday later.

[Brainbug]

10 minutes ago, Relevation said:

OKAY here is my suggested path to $115M Sat

 

 

Im just catching up right now to this.

 

Ehm ... when did this happen? Why are we talking about Endgame-level grosses? Last time i checked i thought cinema was over for this year?

Edited September 2, 2023 by Brainbug

[XXR & Friends]

Just now, Brainbug said:

 

 

Im just catching up right now to this.

 

Ehm ... when did this happen? Why are we taking about Endgame-level grosses? Last time i checked i thought cinema was over for this year?

It was, until Taylor Swift happened....
 

 

[Inceptionzq]

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1875

2629

71.32%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1781

2492

71.47%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 8 HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
8161	921	18466	44.19%	13	124

 

0.791	Barbie T-0	17.65M
1.602	Doctor Strange MoM 34 hours	57.67M
0.785	NWH Day 2	39.27M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1948

2629

74.10%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1857

2492

74.52%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
8815	654	18466	47.74%	13	124

 

0.855	Barbie T-0	19.06M
1.609	Doctor Strange MoM Day 3	57.91M
0.792	NWH Day 3	39.58M

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, XXR&#x27;s Eras Tour said:

It was, until Taylor Swift happened....
 

 

 

WTF

[Hilts]

On 9/1/2023 at 8:28 PM, Hilts said:

 

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3							OK
Thursday - showings starting 5pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-10	15	35	0	3	36	4,267	0.84%
T-9	18	37	0	5	41	4,136	0.99%
T-8	18	37	0	8	49	4,136	1.18%
T-7	18	37	0	1	50	4,136	1.21%
T-6	19	38	0	6	56	4,167	1.34%
Comps
Strays					0.589x	=	$0.65m
Joy Ride					0.903x	=	$0.99m
Barbie					0.018x	=	$0.38m
Asteroid City					0.544x	=	$0.60m

 

Not sure this can make it to $1m. Will add NHF comp soon but a bit early due to shorter window.

 

 

On 9/1/2023 at 8:45 PM, Hilts said:

 

The Nun II							OK
Thursday - showings starting 4pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-7	22	83	0	61	61	16,223	0.38%
T-6	23	84	0	30	91	16,293	0.56%

 

Comps
Insidious: The Red Door					0.948x	=	$4.74m
Talk To Me					2.844x	=	$3.54m
The Last Voyage Of The Demeter					2.935x	=	$2.20m

 

Switched to T-6 comps. Should have a clearer picture tomorrow of where this is headed.

 

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3							OK
Thursday - showings starting 5pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-9	18	37	0	5	41	4,136	0.99%
T-8	18	37	0	8	49	4,136	1.18%
T-7	18	37	0	1	50	4,136	1.21%
T-6	19	38	0	6	56	4,167	1.34%
T-5	19	38	0	4	60	4,167	1.44%
Comps
Strays					0.526x	=	$0.53m
Joy Ride					0.845x	=	$0.93m
Barbie					0.017x	=	$0.37m
Asteroid City					0.566x	=	$0.62m
No Hard Feelings					0.706x	=	$1.52m

 

 

The Nun II							OK
Thursday - showings starting 4pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-7	22	83	0	61	61	16,223	0.38%
T-6	23	84	0	30	91	16,293	0.56%
T-5	23	84	0	10	101	16,293	0.62%

 

Comps
Insidious: The Red Door					0.808x	=	$4.04m
Talk To Me					2.196x	=	$2.73m
The Last Voyage Of The Demeter					2.806x	=	$2.10m
The Meg 2: The Trench					0.821x	=	$2.63m

 

You know it's a slow day when Strays and Demeter comps drop.

 

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

 

Im just catching up right now to this.

 

Ehm ... when did this happen? Why are we talking about Endgame-level grosses? Last time i checked i thought cinema was over for this year?

its sold most tickets for opening day presales at MTC1. its sold more for its previews(I consider Friday as previews as shows are starting at 6PM on friday) on its OD presales than any movie did in entire presales and walkups. Plus this has INFLATED ticket prices as well. So its OD PS for friday was 50% higher than what Barbie did in its entire run !!!! Its sales number are already at Thor/Wakanda levels and soon will hit DS2 final numbers.

 

Wednesday night this did not exist and @datpepper said they pulled forward the ticket sales bcos of his leak :-). Now we are looking at biggest OW of the year despite this being 2.5 days as opposed to 3.5 days normal weekend. There is reasonable chance of this having biggest single day of BO ever beating Endgame opening saturday. Let us see how things go.

[Taruseth]

4 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

WTF

It's Taylor Swift

 

(The US (and others) seems to go absolutely feral for her).

 

Not that I expect it to ever come to cinemas in Germany, but I would be really interested in what it could do here (nothing crazy like in the US).

Edited September 2, 2023 by Taruseth

[Inceptionzq]

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-42 Friday

84 Showings

4196

+4196

13546

ATP:

22.90

0.480	Doctor Strange MoM Thursday 4 hours	17.27M
0.301	NWH Thursday 11 hours	15.07M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thursday 4 hours	25.72M
	Adjusted NWH Thursday 11 hours	22.44M

 

T-43 Saturday

140 Showings

3795

+3795

22131

ATP:

22.56

0.723	Doctor Strange MoM Friday 4 hours	39.54M
0.446	NWH Friday 11 hours	32.12M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Friday 4 hours	57.33M
	Adjusted NWH Friday 11 hours	46.57M

 

T-44 Sunday

129 Showings

2826

+2826

20509

ATP:

22.69

0.652	Doctor Strange MoM Saturday 4 hours	37.70M
0.543	NWH Saturday 11 hours	40.14M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Saturday 4 hours	57.21M
	Adjusted NWH Saturday 11 hours	60.92M

 

Only been on sale for a few hours here

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-41 Friday

90 Showings

6112

+1916

14739

ATP:

22.75

0.503	Doctor Strange MoM Thurs 34 hours	18.11M
0.294	NWH Thurs 24 hours	14.69M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs 34 hours	27.04M
	Adjusted NWH Thurs 24 hours	21.93M

 

T-42 Saturday

146 Showings

6197

+2402

23527

ATP:

22.29

0.700	Doctor Strange MoM Fri 34 hours	38.28M
0.399	NWH Fri 24 hours	28.70M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri 34 hours	55.66M
	Adjusted NWH Fri 24 hours	41.73M

 

T-43 Sunday

134 Showings

4412

+1586

21581

ATP:

22.28

0.523	Doctor Strange MoM Sat 34 hours	30.21M
0.357	NWH Sat 24 hours	26.41M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat 34 hours	45.60M
	Adjusted NWH Sat 24 hours	39.86M

 

I messed up the comps for Saturday and Sunday yesterday, should be fixed now.

[Inceptionzq]

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Emagine Entertainment

T-42 Friday

103 Showings

4863

+4863

16927

1.108

Barbie T-7 Thursday

24.70M

 

T-43 Saturday

231 Showings

2040

+2040

35883

0.333

Barbie T-8 Friday

15.93M

 

T-44 Sunday

225 Showings

1170

+1170

35790

0.387

Barbie T-9 Saturday

16.93M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Emagine Entertainment

T-41 Friday

106 Showings

5790

+927

17259

1.319

Barbie T-7 Thursday

29.41M

 

T-42 Saturday

233 Showings

2928

+888

36826

0.478

Barbie T-8 Friday

22.86M

 

T-43 Sunday

224 Showings

1581

+411

35470

0.523

Barbie T-9 Saturday

22.87M

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-41 Friday

90 Showings

6112

+1916

14739

ATP:

22.75

0.503	Doctor Strange MoM Thurs 34 hours	18.11M
0.294	NWH Thurs 24 hours	14.69M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs 34 hours	27.04M
	Adjusted NWH Thurs 24 hours	21.93M

 

T-42 Saturday

146 Showings

6197

+2402

23527

ATP:

22.29

0.700	Doctor Strange MoM Fri 34 hours	38.28M
0.399	NWH Fri 24 hours	28.70M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri 34 hours	55.66M
	Adjusted NWH Fri 24 hours	41.73M

 

T-43 Sunday

134 Showings

4412

+1586

21581

ATP:

22.28

0.523	Doctor Strange MoM Sat 34 hours	30.21M
0.357	NWH Sat 24 hours	26.41M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat 34 hours	45.60M
	Adjusted NWH Sat 24 hours	39.86M

 

I messed up the comps for Saturday and Sunday yesterday, should be fixed now.

So far its not that impressive. But it did start sales day and half later and I expected early rush moved to MTCs. But late sales should up these numbers big time.

[emoviefan]

I got to be honest I now know how it must have felt for the people who are not into the MCU when EndGame or to a slighly less extent Infinity War and NWH or  even the Force Awakens were exploding.  I am out of the Target Core fanbase for this so cool It  will give a shot in the arm to the theaters at a time when they will need it do  to studio  greed but for me personally it does nothing.  Same way I have felt while Barbie has been blowing up.  

[YM!]

So Swift is easily going to be the biggest movie of the October to December season right?

[keysersoze123]

 

While I am not big fan of Quorum(I dont think they are that useful), above chart is interesting though I would take it with a grain of salt.

[Inceptionzq]

1 hour ago, XXR&#x27;s Eras Tour said:

but Saturday/Sunday could literally have double the ATP in some chains.

 

56 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think smaller chains could be even more ridiculous like Megaplex

Yep, I paid $21 each for a regular Sunday matinee... Normally $9.