The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Feanor]

From a recent DEADLINE article:

Quote

Presales for The Eras Tour at the top three circuits are well in excess of $50M at this point, per box office sources. That number has not been made official by AMC. 

 

It would fit with the IMAX CEO's $65M number.

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

A HAUNTING IN VENICE

 

Thursday Previews 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
133	264	26936	0.98%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(1.985x) of Talk to Me ~$2.47M THUR Previews

 

(1.808x) of Boogeyman ~$1.99M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $2.23M THUR Previews 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

A HAUNTING IN VENICE

 

Thursday Previews 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
133	298	26936	1.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

34

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-6

 

(1.922x) of Talk to Me ~$2.39M THUR Previews

 

(1.935x) of Boogeyman ~$2.13M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $2.26M THUR Previews

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

THE CREATOR

 

Thursday Previews 

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
133	200	27361	0.73%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-21

 

(0.193x) of Haunted Mansion ~$599k THUR Previews

 

(0.190x) of RoTB ~$1.67M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.13M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

THE CREATOR

 

Thursday Previews 

T-20

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
133	263	27361	0.96%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

63

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-20

 

(0.251x) of Haunted Mansion ~$777k THUR Previews

 

(0.241x) of RoTB ~$2.12M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.45M

 

Pretty good day 2 locally 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-28

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	299	25529	1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

24

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-28

 

(0.297x) of Oppenheimer ~$3.12M THUR Previews

 

I have no horror comps this far out so i'll just use oppy for now

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-27

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	327	25529	1.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

28

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-27

 

(0.321x) of Oppenheimer ~$3.37M THUR Previews

 

I have no horror comps this far out so i'll just use oppy for now

[ringedmortality]

54 minutes ago, Eric the Nun said:

A Haunting in Venice $14,000,000 – $19,000,000 25% $42,000,000 – $60,000,000 22%

 

YES

[TheFlatLannister]

On 9/7/2023 at 7:02 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-36

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
202	10247	36394	28.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

19

 

COMPS

T-0

 

No good comps this far out so I'll just compare to T-0 since volume is already absurdly high 

previews: 

(0.763x) of Barbie ~$16.10M FRIDAY for TET

(0.948x) of GOTG3~$16.58M FRIDAY for TET

(0.917x) of ATSV~$15.91M FRIDAY for TET

(1.530x) of TLM~$15.76M FRIDAY for TET

 

COMP AVG: $16.09M

Adjusted 30% up for ATP $20.92M

 

Sales are acting funny here...Still going down but refunds aren't possible. I'll check the scraper later today to make sure everything is working correctly 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-35

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
202	10610	36394	29.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

363

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

18

 

COMPS

T-0

 

No good comps this far out so I'll just compare to T-0 since volume is already absurdly high 

previews: 

(0.790x) of Barbie ~$16.68M FRIDAY for TET

(0.981x) of GOTG3~$17.17M FRIDAY for TET

(0.950x) of ATSV~$16.48M FRIDAY for TET

(1.584x) of TLM~$16.32M FRIDAY for TET

 

COMP AVG: $16.66M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $23.32M

 

Back to normal for now

[abracadabra1998]

On 9/4/2023 at 4:45 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Taylor Swift: Eras Tour (T-39):

Day: T-39	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	114	2098	10213	19546	52.25

 

Same day as Hilts, this has become the largest thing I've ever tracked... with over a month to go.

 

About the MTC1 % of new sales:

- T-43 update: 89% of new sales

- T-42 update: 43% of new sales

- T-39 update: 37% of new sales

 

Other chains are keeping up!

 

Comps (last day I tracked each):

1.15x Barbie w/ EA at T-1: $25.6 Million

2.11x Oppenheimer at T-1: $22.1 Million

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Taylor Swift: Eras Tour (T-35):

Day: T-35	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	120	625	10838	20250	53.52

 

This is over 4 days, averaging about ~130 tickets a day.

 

Comps (last day I tracked each):

1.22x Barbie w/ EA at T-1: $27.16 Million

2.24x Oppenheimer at T-1: $23.5 Million

 

And one final comp:

16.47x Barbie EA ONLY at T-17 (which had around 53% occupancy as well): $18.1 Million

 

@M37 what you said earlier gave me this idea, though I don't think this was exactly what you meant. You suggested comparing MTC1 Barbie EA with MTC1 Taylor so we could get an idea of what total gross from there would be, and then use some kind of ratio more or less to figure out total gross (correct me if I'm completely wrong). My problem is I don't know MTC1 only gross from the Barbie EA shows, only the total figure (the $1.1 Million mentioned earlier, thanks @Hilts). I do think that is a great idea, since for Barbie EA shows there were barely any walk-ups because of capacity issues, which will happen here as well. So I figured that comparing them when they are at similar occupancy rates might be some way to get around that. 

 

Of course, this isn't that helpful, since theaters will keep adding more shows, especially smaller chains, which will mess up the occupancy rate, which didn't happen for Barbie (that had a steady number of shows/seats that never changed). I am just hoping to plant some seeds for discussion and for smarter people to figure out a better way to do this, because I don't love using T-1/T-0 comps, since that assumes walk-ups that this movie likely won't have. 

 

For what it's worth, if someone does end up having MTC1 only gross for Barbie EA, this might come in helpful:

 

22.02x Barbie MTC1 EA ONLY at T-17 (which had 89% occupancy, same as Taylor has now at MTC1)

 

P.S.: Another way that this could be useful has to do with the ATP. Since MTC1 Barbie shows were Dolby, their ATPs would probably be pretty close. I also realized I probably didn't make any sense, but I hope it does!

[charlie Jatinder]

Re Swift, it is possible theater had some seats blocked initially which they may have opened now. @keysersoze123

 

Slow growth or no growth is expected, one we are more than a month away and two this is supposed to be very very presales frontloaded and heavy.

Edited September 9, 2023 by across the Jat verse

[TheFlatLannister]

So what's going on with Greek wedding? We didn't get any updates 

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

So what's going on with Greek wedding? We didn't get any updates 

 

From Deadline:

 

Quote

Also previewing last night, and opening this weekend, is Focus Features’ My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 at 2,500 theaters which made $550K. 

 

Edited September 9, 2023 by Porthos

[jeffthehat]

1 hour ago, across the Jat verse said:

Re Swift, it is possible theater had some seats blocked initially which they may have opened now. @keysersoze123

 

Slow growth or no growth is expected, one we are more than a month away and two this is supposed to be very very presales frontloaded and heavy.

Agree MTC-1 isn't gonna grow much. But where is this notion that it's gonna be very very presales frontloaded coming from? Daily volume seems similar to BP2 at this stage per @Porthos's tracking. 

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, jeffthehat said:

Agree MTC-1 isn't gonna grow much. But where is this notion that it's gonna be very very presales frontloaded coming from? Daily volume seems similar to BP2 at this stage per @Porthos's tracking. 

 

MCU films are a frontloaded property... when compared to other genres.

 

Within the CBM landscape some films are more relatively backloaded than others, sure.  But overall, compared to most General Audience entertainment type properties, MCU flicks are pretty frontloaded, yes.

Edited September 9, 2023 by Porthos

[HummingLemon]

Nun II is gonna match the internal multiplier of the OG Nun from 5 years ago, damn impressive

Edited September 9, 2023 by HummingLemon

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

31 minutes ago, Porthos said:

MCU films are a frontloaded property... when compared to other genres.

 

I'll happily take a frontloaded MCU level of presales-to-OW ratio for TET. Jat probably knows better but I don't think any MCU film has had an OW fall below 2x its presales except Endgame, and that was close.

[Porthos]

43 minutes ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

 

I'll happily take a frontloaded MCU level of presales-to-OW ratio for TET. Jat probably knows better but I don't think any MCU film has had an OW fall below 2x its presales except Endgame, and that was close.

 

Context of the conversation though is about frontloadedness of the presales themselves (or at least my contribution to it).  That is how the sales are distributed during the presale period.

Edited September 9, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

On 9/7/2023 at 11:50 PM, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-36 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	138	11512	18606	7094	38.13%

 

Total Showings Added Today	3
Total Seats Added Today	273
Total Seats Sold Today	127

 

T-36 Comps:

%

Sold T-36

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Unadj  Comp

Ad-hoc Comp

BP2

176.60

294

4017

0/292

32534/36551

10.99%

16800

42.23%

49.45m

71.70m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

Regal:     2120/6150  [34.47% sold]

 

% of Final Totals: [NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR ATP DIFFERENCE WHATSOEVER]

25.17% of No Way Home's final total      [12.59m]

33.59% of Doctor Strange 2's final total [12.09m]

41.82% of Thor 4's final total.                  [12.13m]

78.95% of Avatar 2's final total                [13.42m]

153.52% of Oppenheimer's final total     [16.12m]

58.74% of Barbie's final total                   [13.10m]

 

====

 

So after taking the discussion into account, especially the points from @keysersoze123, decided to go with a flat 45% ATP increase for now. Rather be a little (or even more than a little) conservative than not, especially at this stage.

 

Even so... even so, kinda pops out atcha, doesn't it?  Well, most of it is in fact explained by # of tickets and ATP.  But it really does need to be pointed out that TET has a five day head start on BP2, and that absolutely matters right now, especially with ATP adjustment putting such a heavy thumb on the scale.

 

Still, we'll see where it goes in the next few days and how much the adj comp drops.

 

(not messing with Final Total comps at the mo, so those are still unadjusted.  Still chewing it over how I want to deal with that, especially given the divergent nature of the films in question)

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-35 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	138	11445	18606	7161	38.49%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

67

 

T-35 Comps:

%

Sold T-35

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Unadj  Comp

Ad-hoc Comp

BP2

170.10

193

4210

0/294

32812/37022

11.37%

16800

42.63%

47.63m

69.06m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

Regal:     2138/6150  [34.76% sold]

 

% of Final Totals: [NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR ATP DIFFERENCE WHATSOEVER]

26.96% of No Way Home's final total      [12.70m]

33.91% of Doctor Strange 2's final total [12.21m]

42.22% of Thor 4's final total.                  [12.24m]

79.69% of Avatar 2's final total                [13.55m]

154.97% of Oppenheimer's final total     [16.27m]

59.29% of Barbie's final total                   [13.22m]

 

===

 

Nice. 👍

 

(can not tell you how incredibly tempting it was to inflate the tickets sold tonight by two to make it even more nice!)

[Hilts]

On 9/7/2023 at 8:59 PM, Hilts said:

 

A Haunting In Venice							OK
Wednesday - 7pm - Early Access Screening
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-10	1	1	0	2	12	563	2.13%
T-9	1	1	0	0	12	563	2.13%
T-8	1	1	0	2	14	563	2.49%
T-7	1	1	0	0	14	563	2.49%
T-6	1	1	0	1	15	563	2.66%
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-8	19	50	0	38	38	9,987	0.38%
T-7	19	50	0	14	52	9,987	0.52%

 

Comps
Insidious: The Red Door					0.612x	=	$3.06m
No Hard Feelings					1.000x	=	$2.15m
Talk To Me					1.733x	=	$2.16m
The Meg 2: The Trench					0.765x	=	$2.45m
The Last Voyage Of The Demeter					2.481x	=	$1.86m
Gran Turismo					0.985x	=	$1.38m
The Equalizer 3					0.438x	=	$1.66m

 

 

A Haunting In Venice							OK
Wednesday - 7pm - Early Access Screening
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-9	1	1	0	0	12	563	2.13%
T-8	1	1	0	2	14	563	2.49%
T-7	1	1	0	0	14	563	2.49%
T-6	1	1	0	1	15	563	2.66%
T-5	1	1	0	1	16	563	2.84%
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-8	19	50	0	38	38	9,987	0.38%
T-7	19	50	0	14	52	9,987	0.52%
T-6	19	50	0	15	67	9,987	0.67%

 

Comps
No Hard Feelings					0.985x	=	$2.12m
Talk To Me					2.094x	=	$2.61m
The Meg 2: The Trench					0.705x	=	$2.26m
The Last Voyage Of The Demeter					2.161x	=	$1.62m
The Equalizer 3					0.372x	=	$1.41m
The Nun II					0.736x	=	$2.28m

 

Comp average = $2.05m

 

[Hilts]

The Creator							OK
Wednesday - 7pm - Early Access Screening
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-19	3	3	0	5	5	1,224	0.41%

 

Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-20	17	44	0	45	45	9,049	0.50%

 

T-20 Comps
Asteroid City					1.000x	=	$1.10m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.133x	=	$1.17m
Barbie					0.043x	=	$0.97m
Oppenheimer					0.072x	=	$0.76m
Haunted Mansion					0.521x	=	$1.61m
Strays					1.613x	=	$1.77m

 

Comp average = $1.23m

 

Not much sci-fi recently so comps aren't great (I missed Transformers unfortunately).

 

Better first day locally than Meg 2, Insidious, Equalizer 3 and Haunting in Venice so there is some hope.

 

For the sake of humanity I am hoping for at least $2m previews / $20 OW all said and done and not another 65 but we shall see.

[Hilts]

On 9/7/2023 at 9:03 PM, Hilts said:

 

The Exorcist: Believer							OK
Thursday - showings starting 5pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-29	19	74	0	22	22	15,892	0.14%
T-28	19	74	0	4	26	15,892	0.16%

 

Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.542x	=	$1.68m

 

The Exorcist: Believer							OK
Thursday - showings starting 5pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-29	19	74	0	22	22	15,892	0.14%
T-28	19	74	0	4	26	15,892	0.16%
T-27	19	74	0	1	27	15,892	0.17%

 

T-27 Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.474x	=	$1.47m
Barbie					0.103x	=	$2.18m
Asteroid City					1.588x	=	$1.75m

 

Comp average = $1.80m

[vafrow]

On 9/7/2023 at 8:43 PM, vafrow said:

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour, southern Ontario, T-36 (9 pm pull)

 

Total sales:  21,306

New Sales: 184

Growth from Tuesday: 1%

Theatre Count:  50

Showtimes:  214

Tickets per showtime: 97.4

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

Back to very tepid growth. 1% over two full days.

 

You really feel that this needs some level of promotion for things to pick up again.

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour, southern Ontario, T-35 (6 am pull)

 

Note: Important update on showtimes below.

 

Total sales:  15,181

New Sales: -5855

Growth from Thursday evening: -28%

Theatre Count:  50

Showtimes:  96

Tickets per showtime: 158.1

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

All matinee showtimes have been eliminated. Earliest show is now 6:00pm. There must have been direction to kill these shows.

 

Note, another regional chain here still has late afternoon matinees listed. We'll see how long that lasts.

 

I'm pretty sure these shows were eliminated overnight. With discussion here about impact of matinee shows, I was looking at some yesterday.

 

I figure people who had their tickets cancelled will be scrambling to pick up new tickets. There's still good seats at IMAX screenings, that weren't available day one because of Exorcist. 

 

But it's not enough for the 5K people who lost tickets, so I'm curious how the chain responds here. I can't imagine it's a good idea to anger 5000 Swifties.

 

@Tinalera I would check your numbers from Vancouver to see if something similar happened on your end.