The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

EXPEND4BLES

 

Thursday Previews 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
161	371	31752	1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

51

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

8

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.469x) of EQUALIZER 3 ~$1.78M THUR Previews

(1.279x) of Greek Wedding ~$704K THUR Previews

(0.873x) of Last Voyage ~$655K THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $1.05M

 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

EXPEND4BLES

 

Thursday Previews 

T-0 *Final update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
161	677	31752	2.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 5:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

306

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(0.532x) of EQUALIZER 3 ~$2.02M THUR Previews

(0.629x) of Meg 2 ~$2.01M THUR Previews

(1.896x) of Greek Wedding ~$1.04M THUR Previews

(1.428x) of Last Voyage ~$1.07M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $1.54M

 

A strong day locally. Officially going with $1.5M previews but would not be shocked with $2M or $1M

[vafrow]

On 9/18/2023 at 9:42 PM, vafrow said:

 

Exorcist: Believer, Thursday previews T-17, southern Ontario 

 

Total sales: 73

New sales: 29

Growth since Thursday: 66%

Theatres: 47

Showtimes: 94

Tickets per showtime: 0.777

 

No comps at this stage, but D2, T-7 on Nun 2 was 63, so it's going to be outperforming that once that comp is online. 

 

Exorcist: Believer, Thursday previews T-14, southern Ontario 

 

Total sales: 95

New sales: 22

Growth since Monday (T-17): 30%

Theatres: 47

Showtimes: 94

Tickets per showtime: 0.101

 

Comps

1.792x of Equalizer 3 for $6.8M

0.876x of Blue Beetle for $2.9M

 

Not the greatest comps, but best I have for this far out. It looks positive so far, even though I'll be doing the Saw update next, and it's kind of upping the expectations.

 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

SAW X

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-8 *first few hours

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
135	231	25865	0.89%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

18

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(0.865x) of Nun II ~$2.68M THUR Previews

(0.578x) of Equalizer 3 ~$2.19M THUR Previews

(1.848x) of Boogeyman ~$2.03M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $2.3M previews 

 

Defintely a strong start 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

SAW X

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
135	271	25865	1.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

40

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(0.747x) of Nun II ~$2.31M THUR Previews

(0.659x) of Equalizer 3 ~$2.51M THUR Previews

(1.856x) of Boogeyman ~$2.04M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $2.29M previews 

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

Saw X, Thursday previews, D1 (~24 hrs), T-8, southern Ontario

 

Total sales: 125

Theatre coun: 46

Showtimes: 72

Tickets per showtime: 1.7

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

 

D1, T-8 comp

5.208x Nun 2 for $16.1M

 

T-8 comps

0.833x of Equalizer 3 for $3.2M

0.566x of Blue Beetle for $1.9M

 

So, this is off to a hot start. I wasn't expecting it. I wasn't going to track until I saw that it was selling surprisingly well.

 

Saw X, Thursday previews, D2, T-7, southern Ontario

 

Total sales: 252

New Sales: 127

Growth: 102%

Theatre count: 46

Showtimes: 72

Tickets per showtime: 3.5

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

 

COMPS

10.500x Nun 2 for $32.6M

1.408x of Equalizer 3 for $5.3M

0.795x of Blue Beetle for $2.6M

 

It doubled after a really hot opening day. There's consistent activity across all theatres. I think it's safe to say there's strong interest around here for this film.

 

Given how numbers in this region haven't followed the domestic trend, I'm curious if it aligns to others.

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
147	450	25911	1.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

21

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-15

 

(0.351x) of Haunted Mansion~$1.09M THUR Previews

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
147	454	25911	1.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-14

 

(0.339x) of Haunted Mansion~$1.05M THUR Previews

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

THE CREATOR

 

Thursday Previews 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
137	433	28131	1.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

19

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(0.463x) of Blue Beetle ~$1.53M THUR Previews

(0.271x) of RoTB ~$2.38M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $1.96M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

THE CREATOR

 

Thursday Previews 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
137	453	28131	1.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

20

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(0.475x) of Blue Beetle ~$1.57M THUR Previews

(0.266x) of RoTB ~$2.34M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $1.96M

[CJohn]

16 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
147	454	25911	1.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-14

 

(0.339x) of Haunted Mansion~$1.05M THUR Previews

When do the horror comps kick in? The Nun 2 would be an interesting comp. Do you have any Halloween sequel?

12 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

THE CREATOR

 

Thursday Previews 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
137	453	28131	1.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

20

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(0.475x) of Blue Beetle ~$1.57M THUR Previews

(0.266x) of RoTB ~$2.34M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $1.96M

These comps feel worthless but tbf I can't remember a single better option. 65 had a very short sales window and M3GAN is more of a horror movie.

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-23

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
224	11008	43473	25.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

22

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

19

 

COMPS

T-0

T-0 comps previews: 

(0.820x) of Barbie ~$17.30M FRIDAY for TET

(0.985x) of ATSV~$17.09M FRIDAY for TET

(1.643x) of TLM~$16.93M FRIDAY for TET

COMP AVG: $17.11M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $23.95M

 

T-24 comps

(2.395x) of GOTG3~$41.91M FRIDAY for TET

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
224	11043	43473	25.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

35

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

19

 

COMPS

T-0

T-0 comps previews: 

(0.823x) of Barbie ~$17.36M FRIDAY for TET

(0.988x) of ATSV~$17.15M FRIDAY for TET

(1.649x) of TLM~$16.98M FRIDAY for TET

COMP AVG: $17.16M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $24.02M

 

T-22 comps

(2.371x) of GOTG3~$41.50M FRIDAY for TET

[TheFlatLannister]

7 minutes ago, CJohn said:

When do the horror comps kick in? The Nun 2 would be an interesting comp. Do you have any Halloween sequel?

These comps feel worthless but tbf I can't remember a single better option. 65 had a very short sales window and M3GAN is more of a horror movie.

Nun at T-8

Boogeyman T-11

Insidious T-12 

[HummingLemon]

$100m Taylor Swift looking more and more unlikely

[abracadabra1998]

On 9/17/2023 at 7:34 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Expend4bles (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	37	29	67	5864	1.14

 

Comps:

0.59x Equalizer 3: $2.25 Million

0.58x The Nun II: $1.8 Million

 

Performing better here than anywhere else it seems, we'll see how it does this week.

 

It Lives Inside (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	18	33	33	1654	2

 

Comps:

0.3x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $380k

0.55x Last Voyage of Demeter: $412k

 

Kept seeing this pop up and thought why the hell not, might as well track the latest Neon flick. They probably won't even report previews but hey here's one for the little guy I guess.

 

The Creator (T-11):

Day: T-11, T-10	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 14 theaters	25	40	154	4054	3.8
Wednesday EA: 2 theaters	2	-1	14	586	2.39
TOTALS:	27	39	168	4640	3.62

 

Comps:

0.98x Haunted Mansion: $3 Million

TMNT: Missed

 

Might just be over performing here, but cannot overstate this fact: a third of Thursday sales are from the local Alamo, and that isn't exactly a recipe for walk-ups, since that is a notably presales heavy chain. Just don't want people getting overexcited.

 

The Exorcist: Believer (T-18):

Day: T-18	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	44	4	91	8629	1.05

 

Comp:

0.73x Haunted Mansion: $2.26 Million

 

I had made a mistake in my previous update for this, disregard the numbers for the Exorcist in my previous update. These are the right numbers.

 

Saw X (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	29	61	61	4357	1.4

 

Comps:

1.2x The Nun II: $3.7 Million

0.78x Insidious Red Door: $3.91 Million

 

Pretty good start, concerning number of shows though.

 

The Creator (T-7):

Day: T-7, T-6	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 16 theaters	32	23	177	5543	3.19
Wednesday EA: 2 theaters	2	19	33	586	5.63
TOTALS:	34	42	210	6129	3.43

 

Comps:

Haunted Mansion: Missed

0.3x TMNT (w/ all EA): $1.66 Million

0.82x TMNT (just Previews day, no EA): $3.15 Million

 

Sadly, no more TMNT comp after today.  Really unsure of what to use as comps besides Haunted Mansion.

 

The Exorcist: Believer (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	44	5	96	8629	1.11

 

Comp:

0.6x Haunted Mansion: $1.86 Million

 

Also, @katnisscinnaplex not sure where ya been, sending good vibes your way! Hope all is well.

Edited September 21, 2023 by abracadabra1998

[Eric S'ennui]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-killers-of-the-flower-moon/

 

Quote

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 9/21/23)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
9/29/2023	The Creator	$15,000,000 – $22,000,000		$40,000,000 – $78,000,000		20th Century Studios
9/29/2023	Dumb Money (Wide Expansion)	$5,000,000 – $10,000,000		$14,000,000 – $42,000,000		Sony Pictures / Columbia
9/29/2023	The Kill Room					Shout! Factory
9/29/2023	PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie	$13,000,000 – $18,000,000	+33%	$39,000,000 – $58,000,000	+33%	Paramount Pictures
9/29/2023	Saw X	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000	+9%	$22,000,000 – $35,000,000	+9%	Lionsgate
10/6/2023	Dicks: The Musical (Limited)					A24
10/6/2023	The Exorcist: Believer	$21,000,000 – $31,000,000	+14%	$48,000,000 – $79,000,000	+2%	Universal Pictures
10/6/2023	Foe	$2,000,000 – $6,000,000		$5,000,000 – $20,000,000		Amazon Studios
10/6/2023	Cat Person					Rialto Pictures
10/6/2023	Freeland					Freelance
10/6/2023	Untitled Focus Features Film					Focus Features
10/13/2023	Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour	$105,000,000 – $165,000,000		TBD		AMC Theatres / Variance Films
10/20/2023	Killers of the Flower Moon	$27,000,000 – $36,000,000		$90,000,000 – $134,000,000		Paramount Pictures / Apple Studios
10/20/2023	Soul Mates					Faith Media Distribution

 

[excel1]

TAYLOR SWIFT and KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON should open on the same weekend known as TAYLOR OF FLOWER SWIFT 

Edited September 22, 2023 by excel1

[Porthos]

Last Week:

10/13/2023

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour

$96,000,000 – $145,000,000

TBD

AMC Theatres / Variance Films

 

On 9/14/2023 at 3:53 PM, Shawn said:

96-145 for now

 

At the risk of jinxing things, I feel reasonably confident it's going above TLM's 3-day but am keeping it just above so as not to say 100 is "LoCkEd" and have it be a target for disappointment spin if it does, indeed, end up just below.

 

That said, with the ATP, Twilight and maybe even Hunger Games/Captain Marvel/Barbie-level numbers don't seem far off. The pinpoint is definitely closer to those than TLM for the moment. It's such a wild one to project, though. I think we should just all go along for the ride.

 

*ONE WEEK LATER*

 

Quote

10/13/2023

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour

$105,000,000 – $165,000,000

TBD

AMC Theatres / Variance Films

 

@Shawn right now on TET doing $100m+ OW:

 

(also should be a +% green update on your LRF for TET, but that's a quibble.  I more wanted to go for the meme )

Edited September 22, 2023 by Porthos

[vafrow]

On 9/19/2023 at 8:43 PM, vafrow said:

 

The Creator, Thursday previews (T-9), southern Ontario 

 

Total sales: 130

New sales: 23

Growth from yesterday (T-10): 21%

Theatres: 48

Showtimes: 100

Tickets per showtime: 1.30

 

1.111x of Equalizer 3 for $4.2M

0.376x of Blue Beetle for $1.3M

 

Better comps start coming online in a few days. The Blue Beetle comp at least balances out the high Equalizer total.

 

Average of $2.7M

 

The Creator, Thursday previews (T-7), southern Ontario 

 

Total sales: 174

New sales: 44

Growth from Tuesday (T-7): 34%

Theatres: 48

Showtimes: 100

Tickets per showtime: 1.74

 

0.972x of Equalizer 3 for $3.7M

1.318 of Gran Turismo for $1.8M

0.549x of Blue Beetle for $1.8M

2.762x of Nun 2 for $8.6M

 

I'd throw out Nun 2 as an outlier, giving an average of $2.45M. Again, not great comps, but there isn't much for this anyways.

 

[Flip]

that's very encouraging for KOTFM

[DAJK]

You know what, my comps are utterly baffling for Expend4bles tonight. I have no idea what to think.

 

On the one hand, one of the major theatres I track is showing a final Thrusday number barely 1/3rd of The Equalizer 3 a few weeks ago. On the other hand, another theater has already matched TE3's Thursday, and still has one show to go tonight. Another theater is around 75% of TE3 and another is at around 40%. I thought that would be a pretty good comp for this one, but it looks like no.

 

Using Nun and Blue Beetle as comps (didn't really want to) things start to settle in a bit more at around 1.4M or so. 

[Shawn Robbins]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Last Week:

10/13/2023

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour

$96,000,000 – $145,000,000

TBD

AMC Theatres / Variance Films

 

 

*ONE WEEK LATER*

 

 

@Shawn right now on TET doing $100m+ OW:

 

(also should be a +% green update on your LRF for TET, but that's a quibble.  I more wanted to go for the meme )

Well, to counter-quibble, the range increased... but did the pinpoint increase?

 

 

[Shawn Robbins]

2 hours ago, excel1 said:

TAYLOR SWIFT and KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON should open on the same weekend known as TAYLOR OF FLOWER SWIFT 

Was working through some long range files today and realized the imminent QUIET FU PANDA weekend currently slated for next March.

 

Let's not even get into GARFURIOSA on Memorial Day weekend. 🤯

 

Edit: Better yet... GARFRIENDIOSA.

 

 

[Relevation]

Gonna explore the question of where TS:Eras comps could end at in this post.

 

It’s been on a slow decline in comps every day for the last few weeks and the current T-# comps (with a 1.45x adjustment to calculate for ATP) have it at $45-54M FRI at @Porthos’s market and $60M FRI at @TheFlatLannister’s market. The bleeding appears to have been stopped in Orlando with comps stabilizing while Sacramento continues to slowly slide. Looking at these, I think heading into T-7 we can expect a roughly 3% rate of daily decline every day assuming Taylor doesn’t start some massive promo push. That’s 16 days of straight daily declines of 3% which would result in erosion of 40% by the time we get to T-7. So I predict we’ll be sitting around like $27-37M at T-7. From there it’s anyone’s guess as to what happens with that final week. Are there huge walkups as more casual fans buy their tickets? Does Taylor begin promoting it leading to higher awareness? Do comps just collapse? 
 

I do not think comps will collapse since there are still a huge contingent of casual Taylor fans who aren’t gonna buy the tickets at jump but still want to go, but it really depends as to how strong the late game sales are. I think there are 4 potential scenarios.

 

SCENARIO #1 - COMPS CONTINUE SLIDING FURTHER

For curiosity’s sake, let’s say comps just continue sliding further at their slow descent. In this scenario, comps continue sliding at the 3% rate of decline which would probably end comps at $22-30M for FRI. That off a 4.5-5x IM for Friday would probably yield a $110-135M opening weekend.

 

SCENARIO #2 - COMPS HOLD STEADY

In this outcome, let’s say that the walkups for The Eras Tour are just as straightforward as a normal MCU blockbuster and ergo, comps remain steady. If comps hold up around $27-37M for FRI then a 4.5-5x IM from Friday would result in an opening weekend for The Eras Tour of about $135-167M.

 

SCENARIO #3 - COMPS SEE SOME GROWTH

Now let’s explore the scenario in which the walkups for the Eras Tour do come in moderately strong force. The more casual fans decide to start buying their tickets late, the hype for the concert movie hits more of a pitch, and it can manage some moderate 5% daily growth heading into T-0. This would result in a strong 40% gain over that last week and bring comps back up to $38-52M for FRI. A 4.5-5x IM off that would get this to a massive $190-234M opening weekend.

 

SCENARIO #4 - COMPS SURGE WITH INSANE WALKUPS

And finally, let’s explore the optimistic scenario where Taylor Swift decides to put her full marketing force towards this concert movie. The casual fans come out in full force to buy tickets in the final week, the anticipation spikes, and the comps surge with 7.5% daily growth in the final week. That would send comps soaring 67% in the last week to a $45-62M FRI. And that gargantuan total off a 4.5x to 5x IM would send this to a $225-280M opening weekend.

 

In conclusion, I don’t think we can definitively rule out any of those scenarios from occurring when this movie reaches its final week because it depends on a myriad of X factors that we simply don’t know yet. However, I think I’ve explored the 4 potential paths this could take in that last week to hopefully get a sense of what this could do as that Oct 13 release looms.