The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[ringedmortality]

I know this isn't the thread for it, but Killers is bound to do better in INT markets so it really can outgross Nope WW.

[Hilts]

Killers of the Flower Moon							OK
Thursday - showings starting 2.30pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-24	18	73	0	295	295	13,304	2.22%

 

Comps
Oppenheimer					0.472x	=	$4.96m
Barbie					0.677x	=	$14.28m
Haunted Mansion					3.831x	=	$11.88m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					1.385x	=	$12.19m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.497x	=	$3.58m
Asteroid City					10.172x	=	$11.19m
The Exorcist: Believer					8.194x

 

This may over-index here big time considering location/subject matter so beware on that.

 

Will be interested to see the other regional and chain updates!

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Paw Patrol is a TV show adaptation, and frankly one that has its own "rabid" fanbase of 6 year olds. I could see it being slightly more pre-sale heavy than comparable family movies. 

 

It's also going to sell a ton of kids tickets (which will depress the ATP) as well as being a full day release in the States (which will depress ATP against Thr previews).

 

Don't envy trackers for that film, that's for sure

[Shawn Robbins]

October looks so good on paper. Between how its major titles are tracking and the WGA news, I think we can be positive about the box office again after a ho-hum September. Ebbs and flows, as always.

 

Would be great if SAG comes to terms soon so that Q4 releases can have stars out there promoting.

[filmlover]

9 minutes ago, Shawn said:

October looks so good on paper. Between how its major titles are tracking and the WGA news, I think we can be positive about the box office again after a ho-hum September. Ebbs and flows, as always.

 

Would be great if SAG comes to terms soon so that Q4 releases can have stars out there promoting.

I'm fully expecting, given how quickly WGA has come along, that SAG-AFTRA will be resolved in time for Flower Moon to have at least a Hollywood premiere the week of release. If that's too late, then the various November heavy-hitters will mark the official return of actor promo.

[vafrow]

On 9/24/2023 at 8:20 AM, vafrow said:

 

The Creator, Thursday previews (T-5), southern Ontario 

 

Total sales: 266

New sales: 32

Growth from yesterday: 14%

Theatres: 48

Showtimes: 100

Tickets per showtime: 2.66

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

0.933x of Equalizer 3 for $3.5M

 1.520x of Gran Turismo for $2.1M

0.630x of Blue Beetle for $2.1M

0.672x of Saw X for???

 

I must have had errors in yesterdays numbers, as things have jumped against comps despite a modest growth level. 

 

Equalizer has not been serving as a good comp for me, so taking that out as an outlier, I'd go with $2.1M guess on The Creator for now.

 

The Creator, Thursday previews (T-4), southern Ontario 

 

Total sales: 302

New sales: 36

Growth from yesterday: 14%

Theatres: 48

Showtimes: 100

Tickets per showtime: 3.02

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

0.984x of Equalizer 3 for $3.7M

 1.373x of Gran Turismo for $1.9M

0.611x of Blue Beetle for $2.0M

0.591x of Saw X for???

0.904x of Paw Patrol for???

 

Morning pull that's only getting posted now.

 

Modest growth, but not unexpected for Sunday overnight. Still probably around $2.0M based on my numbers.

 

It's worth noting that it's now behind Paw Patrol and Saw X for Thursday previews sales.

[vafrow]

On 9/24/2023 at 8:30 AM, vafrow said:

 

Paw Patrol The Mighty Pups, T-5, Thursday previews, southern Ontario

 

Total sales: 261

New Sales: 81

Growth: 45%

Theatre Count: 47

Showtimes: 113

Tickets per showtime: 2.3 

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

COMPS

0.618x Blue Beetle for $2.0M

0.659x of Saw X for???

0.981x of The Creator for???

 

The Haunted Mansion and Ruby Gillman were sporadic, so no comp today on them, but neither was too useful.

 

This has almost caught Creator, despite that being available a week earlier. I remain impressed by this performance. It's doing really well for a Thursday night.

 

 

Paw Patrol The Mighty Pups, T-4, Thursday previews, southern Ontario

 

Total sales: 334

New Sales: 73

Growth: 28%

Theatre Count: 47

Showtimes: 113

Tickets per showtime: 2.96 

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

COMPS

2.036x Haunted Mansion for $6.3M

0.676x Blue Beetle for $2.2M

0.653x of Saw X for???

1.106x of The Creator for???

 

As the only Thursday preview region, there's not much to really predict here, as I'm not sure if there will be any reporting of this.

 

Still, it's strong for a Thursday preview. 

[HummingLemon]

When do you guys think presales for The Marvels will start up? Wakanda Forever with the same release date started on Oct 3.

[Inceptionzq]

On 9/22/2023 at 3:07 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2091

2657

78.70%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

2013

2735

73.60%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 10 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
10306	378	21897	47.07%	13	143

 

0.999	Barbie T-0	22.28M
0.671	Doctor Strange MoM T-0	24.15M
0.445	NWH T-0	22.25M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2103

2657

79.15%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

2026

2741

73.91%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 3 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
10379	73	22056	47.06%	13	146

 

1.006	Barbie T-0	22.44M
0.676	Doctor Strange MoM T-0	24.32M
0.448	NWH T-0	22.41M

 

I'm gonna add Doctor Strange T-X comps starting tomorrow

[Inceptionzq]

On 9/22/2023 at 3:09 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse [+10 days of sales]

T-21 Friday

97 Showings

9718

+722

15356

ATP:

22.43

0.300	Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0	10.80M
0.250	NWH Thurs T-0	12.52M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0	16.11M
	Adjusted NWH Thurs T-0	18.67M

 

T-22 Saturday

177 Showings

12850

+1720

26549

ATP:

22.15

0.345	Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0	18.90M
0.301	NWH Fri T-0	21.67M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0	28.58M
	Adjusted NWH Fri T-0	32.77M

 

T-23 Sunday

157 Showings

10049

+1391

23429

ATP:

21.99

0.228	Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0	13.21M
0.200	NWH Sat T-0	14.77M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0	20.46M
	Adjusted NWH Sat T-0	22.89M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse [+3 days of sales]

T-18 Friday

100 Showings

9909

+191

15745

ATP:

22.41

0.306	Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0	11.02M
0.255	NWH Thurs T-0	12.77M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0	16.42M
	Adjusted NWH Thurs T-0	19.02M

 

T-19 Saturday

183 Showings

13220

+370

27311

ATP:

22.13

0.355	Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0	19.45M
0.310	NWH Fri T-0	22.30M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0	29.38M
	Adjusted NWH Fri T-0	33.68M

 

T-20 Sunday

161 Showings

10382

+333

23960

ATP:

21.97

0.236	Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0	13.64M
0.206	NWH Sat T-0	15.26M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0	21.12M
	Adjusted NWH Sat T-0	23.63M

[vafrow]

On 9/24/2023 at 8:38 AM, vafrow said:

 

Saw X, Thursday previews, T-5, southern Ontario

 

Total sales: 396

New Sales: 60

Growth: 18%

Theatre count: 46

Showtimes: 72

Tickets per showtime: 5.5

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

 

COMPS

1.389x of Equalizer 3 for $5.3M

0.938x of Blue Beetle for $3.1M

 

The Nun comp comes back tomorrow, but it's still well ahead. 

 

Saw X, Thursday previews, T-4, southern Ontario

 

Total sales: 511

New Sales: 115

Growth: 29%

Theatre count: 46

Showtimes: 72

Tickets per showtime: 7.1

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

 

COMPS

2.704x of The Nun 2 for $8.4M 

1.664x of Equalizer 3 for $6.3M

1.034x of Blue Beetle for $3.4M

1.250x of T-3 of Haunting in Venice for $1.5M

 

It keeps going up against comps, but I have to think it's over indexing here

 So, I took my last big over index. The problem is that I only have starting from T-3, and I probably won't get a t-3 update in. 

 

It at least gives something closer to norm. 

 

Nun 2 should be the good comp

 I can't think of why it would be such an outlier.

 

Even though they're not comparable on the surface, I'm tempted to say Blue Beetle might be the best comp on the group. There's clearly a fan driven angle here, that might be comic book film comparable for a lesser property.

[Inceptionzq]

On 9/22/2023 at 3:10 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Emagine Entertainment [+10 days of sales]

T-21 Friday

124 Showings

8746

+748

19380

0.609

Barbie T-0 Thursday

13.59M

 

T-22 Saturday

234 Showings

5778

+605

36975

0.225

Barbie T-0 Friday

10.74M

 

T-23 Sunday

225 Showings

3355

+541

35641

0.141

Barbie T-0 Saturday

6.18M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Emagine Entertainment [+3 days of sales]

T-18 Friday

124 Showings

8946

+200

19401

0.623

Barbie T-0 Thursday

13.90M

 

T-19 Saturday

234 Showings

5963

+185

36981

0.232

Barbie T-0 Friday

11.08M

 

T-20 Sunday

225 Showings

3498

+143

35652

0.148

Barbie T-0 Saturday

6.45M

[TwoMisfits]

For KOTFM, I'd like to see that's it not just a PLF movie for AMC/Regal subscribers who get unlimited movies and it actually breaks big in early presales at Cinemark (which is 1 movie a month, so tends to show way more possible GA interest).

 

And b/c you all got me interested on this point, I never check, but I did just now...for Thursday night presales...

 

5 tickets sold, all in a PLF screen at 1 Cinemark

2 tickets sold, in a regular screen at the 2nd Cinemark

 

Now, I don't do more that cursory checks when presales start and I sure don't track...but while we wait for overall MTC sales, I figured I might mention this might be skewing even harder to 1 than the other than even this type of movie might normally...

Edited September 25, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Shawn Robbins]

48 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I'm fully expecting, given how quickly WGA has come along, that SAG-AFTRA will be resolved in time for Flower Moon to have at least a Hollywood premiere the week of release. If that's too late, then the various November heavy-hitters will mark the official return of actor promo.

That makes a lot of sense. I think the entire Hollywood system knows they need to make something happen soon with the prospect of an award season that's halfway interesting to non-filmnerds ahead. And of course, to promote everything else at a time when there is no elephant in the box office room ala Avatar and Spidey the last two years.

[Porthos]

24 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

For KOTFM, I'd like to see that's it not just a PLF movie for AMC/Regal subscribers who get unlimited movies and it actually breaks big in early presales at Cinemark (which is 1 movie a month, so tends to show way more possible GA interest).

 

And b/c you all got me interested on this point, I never check, but I did just now...for Thursday night presales...

 

5 tickets sold, all in a PLF screen at 1 Cinemark

2 tickets sold, in a regular screen at the 2nd Cinemark

 

Now, I don't do more that cursory checks when presales start and I sure don't track...but while we wait for overall MTC sales, I figured I might mention this might be skewing even harder to 1 than the other than even this type of movie might normally...

 

From this morning's pull, by chain:

 

Cinemark:     25/2982 (0.84% sold) [21 PLF | 4 standard]

Regal:             31/2195 (1.41% sold) [5 PLF | 26 standard]

SMG:                  0/144

EsquireIMAX:    0/576

Cinema West:        n/a

 

Tiny bit of an asterisk on the Cinemark one, as Century Arden accounted for 13 of those 25 tickets.  Conversely, the busiest Regal theater in town (Delta Shores) had 10 of those tickets.

 

Breaking down by theater, it'd be:

 

Cinemark:  13, 1, 0, 7, n/a, 2, 2

Regal:          3, 6, 10, 7, 5

 

So top heavy at the two of the bigger Cinemarks locally, while a tiny bit more spread out at Regal. And for whatever reason much more of a PLF skew at Cinemark than Regal (though two of the Regals listed don't have PLF screens)

 

Still, at these level of sales just takes one or two cinefiles to tip the scales a bit, so lots of potential for noise at this level of a sample.

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

SAW X

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
135	394	25865	1.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

16

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(0.720x) of Nun II ~$2.23M THUR Previews

(0.726x) of Equalizer 3 ~$2.76M THUR Previews

(1.438x) of Boogeyman ~$1.58M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $2.19M previews 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

SAW X

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
141	448	27017	1.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

54

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(0.730x) of Nun II ~$2.26M THUR Previews

(0.736x) of Equalizer 3 ~$2.80M THUR Previews

(2.084x) of Talk To Me ~$2.59M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $2.55M previews 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

THE CREATOR

 

Thursday Previews 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
137	523	28131	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

23

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(0.490x) of Blue Beetle ~$1.62M THUR Previews

(0.239x) of RoTB ~$2.10M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $1.86M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

THE CREATOR

 

Thursday Previews 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
137	585	28131	2.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

62

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(0.536x) of Blue Beetle ~$1.77M THUR Previews

(0.247x) of RoTB ~$2.17M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $1.97M

 

Finally, a solid day

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-11

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
147	516	25911	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

15

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-11

 

(0.350x) of Haunted Mansion~$1.09M THUR Previews

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
147	529	25911	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

13

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-10

 

(0.350x) of Haunted Mansion~$1.09M THUR Previews

(6.080x) of Boogeyman~$6.69M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $3.89M

[TheFlatLannister]

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-25

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
136	293	22614	1.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-25

 

(0.274x) of Oppenheimer ~$2.87M THUR Previews

 

I will have better comps closer to T-10. Overall, a fine start 25 days out, but I'm not seeing much of a breakout 

 

Comps First 24 hours

(1.559x) of Asteroid city ~$1.71M

(0.299x) of Haunted Mansion ~$929k

(1.093x) of Gran Turismo ~$1.53M

(1.109x) of Haunting in Venice $1.33M

 

 

Edited September 25, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[Relevation]

15 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

(0.350x) of Haunted Mansion~$1.09M THUR Previews

(6.080x) of Boogeyman~$6.69M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $3.89M

Moral of the story: Haunted Mansion bad comp for horror movies