The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[CJohn]

20 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
147	529	25911	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

13

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-10

 

(0.350x) of Haunted Mansion~$1.09M THUR Previews

(6.080x) of Boogeyman~$6.69M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $3.89M

We are in dire need for The Nun comp to kick in. Saw X might be a good one as well.

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-19

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
224	11144	43473	25.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

41

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

20

 

COMPS

T-0

T-0 comps previews: 

(0.830x) of Barbie ~$17.51M FRIDAY for TET

(0.997x) of ATSV~$17.30M FRIDAY for TET

(1.664x) of TLM~$17.14M FRIDAY for TET

COMP AVG: $17.21M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $24.09M

 

T-19 comps

(2.330x) of GOTG3~$40.78M FRIDAY for TET

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $57.07M

 

First day in a while that it hasn't slipped against GOTG comp

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-18

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
224	11204	43473	25.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

60

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

20

 

COMPS

T-0

T-0 comps previews: 

(0.835x) of Barbie ~$17.61M FRIDAY for TET

(1.003x) of ATSV~$17.40M FRIDAY for TET

(1.673x) of TLM~$17.23M FRIDAY for TET

COMP AVG: $17.41M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $24.29M

 

T-18 comps

(2.316x) of GOTG3~$40.54M FRIDAY for TET

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $56.76M

 

A strong day, but still slipping against Guardians comp 

[TheFlatLannister]

22 minutes ago, CJohn said:

We are in dire need for The Nun comp to kick in. Saw X might be a good one as well.

Nun starts at T-8 which will be a good one 

[TheFlatLannister]

28 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Moral of the story: Haunted Mansion bad comp for horror movies 

Haunted Mansion overindexed a lot here because of Disney. So its probably just not a good comp for me to use in the future tbh 

[abracadabra1998]

21 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Saw X (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	33	73	134	5387	2.49

 

Comps:

1.17x The Nun II: $3.6 Million

0.76x Insidious Red Door: $3.82 Million

1.14x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $1.42 Million 

2.23x Last Voyage of Demeter: $1.675 Million

 

Still pretty nice, Nun and Insidious comps are the most important imo

 

The Creator (T-4):

Day: T-4, T-3	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	34	65	242	6375	3.8
Wednesday EA: 2 theaters	2	9	42	586	7.17
TOTALS:	36	74	284	6961	4.08

 

Comps:

0.92x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $2.85 Million

0.98x Blue Beetle (comped with just Thursday): $3.22 Million

1.99x Haunting in Venice (w/ EA): $2.38 Million

 

These are baaaaad comps, don't put too much trust in them. Venice might be the best one, since the other two had pretty good release week growth rates and I think The Creator will behave more similarly to Venice, but we shall see.

 

The Exorcist: Believer (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	44	12	108	8629	1.25

 

Comp:

0.63x Haunted Mansion: $1.96 Million

 

Actual horror comps coming next update

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Saw X (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	33	40	174	5387	3.23

 

Comps:

1.23x The Nun II: $3.83 Million

0.85x Insidious Red Door: $4.24 Million

1.2x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $1.5 Million 

2.52x Last Voyage of Demeter: $1.89 Million

 

The Creator (T-3):

Day: T-3, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	34	51	291	6375	4.56
Wednesday EA: 2 theaters	2	8	50	586	8.53
TOTALS:	36	59	341	6961	4.9

 

Comps:

0.91x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $2.83 Million

0.97x Blue Beetle (comped with just Thursday): $3.19 Million

1.81x Haunting in Venice (w/ EA): $2.18 Million

 

Mostly keeping track with comps.

 

Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	82	378	869	11788	7.37

 

Comp:

2.81x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $8.72 Milion

 

@Porthos point about ATP cannot be overstated; waaaaayyyyy more children's tickets will be sold than most releases. These are still fantastic numbers though.

[Flip]

3 hours ago, Shawn said:

October looks so good on paper. Between how its major titles are tracking and the WGA news, I think we can be positive about the box office again after a ho-hum September. Ebbs and flows, as always.

 

Would be great if SAG comes to terms soon so that Q4 releases can have stars out there promoting.

Feels like the November movies (Marvels, Wish, Hunger games) need the strike to end much more than the October movies (Eras, KOTFM)

[emoviefan]

This past weekend should be by far rock bottom for box office this year. Three movies will open over 15 million this weekend most likely and then from there we get the Exorcist, Then the Future Mrs Kelce and then the future director of Secret Wars with his new movie. 😄

[HummingLemon]

The bloodiest of blood-baths starts when we get the first tracking for THE MARVELS

[SpiderByte]

18 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

The bloodiest of blood-baths starts when we get the first tracking for THE MARVELS

Oh definitely. It'll be like guardians where people say the site not crashing is proof that it's gonna flop.

 

And then it'll be a bunch of shouting and arguing and it'll just be a solid but lower than the first opening and not the Looking Glass level dropoff everyone expects

[HummingLemon]

16 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Oh definitely. It'll be like guardians where people say the site not crashing is proof that it's gonna flop.

 

And then it'll be a bunch of shouting and arguing and it'll just be a solid but lower than the first opening and not the Looking Glass level dropoff everyone expects

I think a good comp is Secret Life of Pets, which went from 875 --> 431, basically a 50% drop. I could see The Marvels ending at like $575M WW which would roughly be a 50% drop from CM1. 

Edited September 26, 2023 by HummingLemon

[SpiderByte]

40 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

I think a good comp is Secret Life of Pets, which went from 875 --> 431, basically a 50% drop. I could see The Marvels ending at like $575M WW which would roughly be a 50% drop from CM1. 

That seems like a decent enough comp. Though female leads have overpeformed quite a bit in the back half of this year. Even Bottoms, which...only barely got a theatrical run had a pretty high per theater average

[HummingLemon]

9 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

That seems like a decent enough comp. Though female leads have overpeformed quite a bit in the back half of this year. Even Bottoms, which...only barely got a theatrical run had a pretty high per theater average

Hmm. . .I could see this having a higher female % than the first Captain Marvel.

[eman92]

23 hours ago, eman92 said:

 

Saw X T-4 Evening Update - Northern New Jersey 16 screen Theater

 

Saw X made up some solid ground on The Nun II today. Ended up selling 7 more tickets more than The Nun II on T-4 and so now Saw X has 1 more ticket sale more than The Nun II for the whole weekend in total. 

 

T-4	The Nun II	Saw X
Thursday	61	55
Friday	52	46
Saturday	30	40
Sunday	10	13
Total	153	154

 

It is still 6 tickets behind on Thursday, I'm hoping that either tomorrow or Tuesday at the latest my AMC will release more showtimes for Sept 29th weekend which should hopefully help. 

 

0.90x of The Nun II for $2.80M Thursday Preview

1.01x of The Nun II for $32.82M Weekend incl Preview

 

 

Saw X T-3 Evening Update - Northern New Jersey 16 screen Theater

 

Another solid update for Saw X. It sold overall 5 more tickets than The Nun II did at T-3 across the whole weekend. Saw X is now outselling The Nun II by 6 tickets. Interestingly The Nun II is selling extremely strong on Friday, having double its Saturday sales. Where as with Saw X it has a lower amount sold on Friday than The Nun II, but its Saturday numbers are more consistent. I'm not sure if that really means anything, but just found that interesting since The Nun II and Saw X are so close on Thursday's and Sunday's sales, but Friday and Saturday they are different. 

 

As well Saw X is now only 3 ticket sales away from The Nun II's Thursday total. Saw X did lose 1 sale on Sunday as it had 13 tickets sold at T-4. 

 

T-3	The Nun II	Saw X
Thursday	66	63
Friday	71	61
Saturday	35	53
Sunday	11	12
Total	183	189

 

My AMC finally added more showtimes. It must have happened very late today cause I checked around 6 PM and there were no additional showtimes, but as of midnight they were there, but absolutely 0 tickets sold across all of them, and they added very good times. So I'm guessing they were either added at midnight or close to it. Either way Thursday got an additional 2 times, Friday got 5 times, Saturday got 3 times and Sunday got 4 times. I'm assuming even more showtimes may be added because its quite odd Saturday got fewer showtimes added than Sunday. 

 

0.95x of The Nun II for $2.96M Thursday Preview

1.03x of The Nun II for $33.67M Weekend incl Preview

Edited September 26, 2023 by eman92

[keysersoze123]

Killers of the Flower Moon MTC1 Previews(T-24) - 10443/276077 204667.17 1661 shows

 

Solid start considering its a 3.5 hr drama. I am feeling good about this having 5m+ previews. How much higher let us see how the pace goes. This also wont be front loaded and so should be good for 40m+ OW. 

[HummingLemon]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Killers of the Flower Moon MTC1 Previews(T-24) - 10443/276077 204667.17 1661 shows

 

Solid start considering its a 3.5 hr drama. I am feeling good about this having 5m+ previews. How much higher let us see how the pace goes. This also wont be front loaded and so should be good for 40m+ OW. 

[ThomasNicole]

27 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Killers of the Flower Moon MTC1 Previews(T-24) - 10443/276077 204667.17 1661 shows

 

Solid start considering its a 3.5 hr drama. I am feeling good about this having 5m+ previews. How much higher let us see how the pace goes. This also wont be front loaded and so should be good for 40m+ OW. 

WE´RE SO BACK

[ThomasNicole]

Well seems like things are looking quite solid for Saw X and Paw Patrol which is nice 

 

The Creator seems to be doing relatively well, if the reviews are good enough tomorrow [75% or so] maybe it can keep growing and get a 20M OW 

 

Killers also looks very solid

 

Hopefully a good month ahead, because the past month has been horrible 

[WorkingonaName]

Cinema is back. 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-19 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	139	10990	18797	7807	41.53%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

59

 

T-19 Comps:

	%		Sold T-19	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
MoM	82.54		193	9459		0/329	31449/40908	23.12%		21117	36.97%		29.71m	43.08m
BP2	123.65		102	6314		1/294	30708/37022	17.05%		16800	46.47%		34.62m	50.20m
AM3	187.13		41	4172		0/235	28384/32556	12.81%		10475	74.53%		32.75m	47.48m
GOTG3	238.75		87	3270		0/206	26377/29647	11.03%		10750	72.62%		41.78m	60.58m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

T-19 Final Percents:

	%		Sold T-19	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
Bats	230.16		157	3392		0/248	28906/32298	10.50%		11757	66.40%
JWD	377.70		86	2067		0/184	22740/24807	8.33%		10966	71.19%
Ava 2	343.92		142	2270		0/142	19068/21338	10.64%		8986	86.88%
AtSV	487.63		42	1601		0/123	18301/19902	8.04%		9744	80.12%
Barbie	547.86		82	1425		0/96	11202/12627	11.29%		12077	64.64%
Oppy	861.70		28	906		0/53	7344/8250	10.98%		4621	168.95%
Barben	334.92		110	2331		0/149	18546/20877	11.17%		16698	46.75%

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     2261/6150  [36.76% sold]

 

===

 

The NFL.... It's POWAH!

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-18 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	140	10947	18797	7850	41.76%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	n/a
Total Seats Sold Today	43

NOTE: The sole showing added today was from the local drive-in theater, which is non-reserved seating.

 

T-18 Comps:

	%		Sold T-18	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
MoM	81.47		176	9635		0/329	31273/40908	23.55%		21117	37.17%		29.33m	42.53m
Thor 4	133.59		196	5876		0/228	25724/31600	18.59%		16962	46.28%		38.74m	56.18m
BP2	122.12		114	6428		1/294	30596/37024	17.36%		16800	46.73%		34.19m	49.58m
AM3	182.94		119	4291		0/235	28265/32556	13.18%		10475	74.94%		32.01m	46.42m
GOTG3	233.63		90	3360		0/206	26287/29647	11.33%		10750	73.02%		40.89m	59.28m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

T-18 Final Percents:

	%		Sold T-18	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
Bats	223.14		126	3518		0/248	28780/32298	10.89%		11757	66.77%
JWD	362.42		99	2166		0/184	22643/24809	8.73%		10966	71.58%
Ava 2	325.46		142	2412		0/142	18926/21338	11.30%		8986	87.36%
AtSV	466.71		81	1682		0/123	18234/19916	8.45%		9744	80.56%
Barbie	535.11		42	1467		0/96	11160/12627	11.62%		12077	65.00%
Oppy	845.91		22	928		0/53	7322/8250	11.25%		4621	169.88%
Barben	327.77		64	2395		0/149	18482/20877	11.47%		16698	47.01%

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     2264/6150  [36.81% sold]

[Porthos]

Hmmm......

 

Killers of the Flower Moon actually did fairly decently locally when all is said and done.  That extra half day of pre-sales (well, one fourth) messes with my analysis a fair bit, as does the fact that perhaps my two best (or at least least-terrible) comps were both over 40 days of pre-sales (Nope at 43 and Oppenheimer at 50).

 

Still...

 

Yet Another Hell-If-I-Know Quick-Look Killers of the Flower Moon Sacto Report [T-24]

125/7153 (1.75% sold) [+71 tickets sold (since 10am)]

 

As for comps?  Like I said, "Hell if I know".

 

Nope   Day 1:  2.19298x  [14.03m]

Nope   Day 2:  1.95313x  [12.50m]

Nope    T-24:  0.62814x    [4.02m]   

Oppy   Day 1:  0.69832x   [7.33m]

Oppy   Day 2:  0.55067x   [5.78m]

Oppy    T-24:   0.16023x   [1.68m] 

Dune   Day 1:   0.31726x   [1.62m]

 

The Nope D1/D2 and the Dune D1/Oppy T-24 comps are clearly no good for opposite reasons.  Maaaaaybe by sheer chance that Nope T-24 to Oppy Day 2 range looks.... Plausible?  Maybe?  HIIK.  

 

Either way, not devoting a full track to this yet, or even a Quick and Dirty track, but I think I am...

 

 

it

 

(open image in another tab, if one wants to spoil the joke)

Edited September 26, 2023 by Porthos