The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Rocketracoon]

Rhode Island Area Tracking 

       
T-1 -The Creator = 32 Tickets sold (12 in Premium format)

 

T-1 Comps

 

(0.368) Of Saw X = ???

 

(2.67) Of Dumb Money (Wide Expansion) = ???

 

Numbers are not strong and Sax X is outselling it at nearly every local Movie theater hopefully walk ups are good for It

 

 

[abracadabra1998]

39 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

liked for the update but more for your team winning; congratulations! 👍

 

(or: It felt weird giving a "sad face" reaction to news of your team winning 😉 )

Thank you, much appreciated  

[vafrow]

Exorcist: Believer, T-8, Thursday previews, southern Ontario

 

Total sales: 181

New sales: 53

Growth since T-11: 41%

Theatre Count: 47

Showtimes: 94

Tickets per showtime:  1.93

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

COMPS

0.853x of Equalizer 3 for 3.2M

0.579x of Blue Beetle for $1.9M

5.333x of The Nun 2 for $16.5M

1.024x of Saw X for ???

 

I can't find my last few posts on this, even though I've tracked periodically. I think this weeks openers have been more interesting, so I just don't get around to posting details.

 

The Nun and Saw are both D1 updates, so the comps will fall in time.

 

The rate of growth on this has been lackluster. It's horror, so final week will matter the most, but with Saw X being a powerhouse up here, I think it's grabbing the horror fans instead (even with it being a very different type of horror fan).

[vafrow]

On 9/26/2023 at 7:01 PM, vafrow said:

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour, Opening Friday,southern Ontario, T-17 (early evening pull)

 

Total sales:  16,974

New Sales: 473

Growth from yesterday 2.9%

Matinee Sales on Hold: 5736 across 119 showtimes 

Theatre Count:  50

Showtimes:  96

Total Seats Available for Sale: 25,293

Percentage of seats sold: 67.1%

Tickets per showtime: 176.8

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

This is a fun update. Lots of important changes.

 

First off, this is a day and a half update, with the international release announcement having a measurable impact on sales.

 

I've seen a lot of numbers move that have been static for a while. For example, an 11:00 pm show was added last week for a single theatre, that did not have a single ticket sold. It's up to 13. The announcement certainly served as an awareness event.

 

However, it's not the only key event.

 

One theatre has seemingly added back two matinee showings. This represents 119 of the sales, or 0.7% of the 2.9% growth.

 

It's unclear if it was an accident, or a sign that the rest will be re-added soon. I'd guess the former, but not ruling out the latter. The longer this has stretched out, the less I can see either Cineplex or Taylor Swift's camp wanting the press of high volume of cancelled tickets. I'll check tomorrow, as these changes often happen overnight. I should see if others have added it or not.

 

I'm too backlogged to do a Saturday pull, but general lack of capacity on Friday makes me suspect that Saturday has probably absorbed the bulk of the demand. Even though there are still good showings with seats, most people aren't looking that hard and if will just look to Saturday if there's nothing close to them for Friday.

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour, Opening Friday,southern Ontario, T-16 (early evening pull)

 

Total sales:  17,132

New Sales: 158

Growth from yesterday 0.9%

Matinee Sales on Hold: 5736 across 119 showtimes 

Theatre Count:  50

Showtimes:  96

Total Seats Available for Sale: 25,293

Percentage of seats sold: 67.7%

Tickets per showtime: 178.5

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

The promotion effect still having a hold, just reducing. However, as we're getting to the two week mark, I think we can expect more promotion ahead, even if it's aimed at ths hardcore base. 

 

A few administrative notes. The two matinee shows remain, but no more added. I'm still not sure what's up there.

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

If KOTFM can hit 50 OW, I don’t see it missing 200 DOM. 

ok, let's slow down a bit 

[Eric Prime]

5 hours ago, vafrow said:

I'm really at a loss to explain how the Canadian and US markets are so different on this one. Saw X is vastly outperforming The Creator up here, and there's nothing about either franchise I'd peg as being regionally skewed.

 

4 hours ago, DAJK said:

I'm seeing the exact same thing. Just this morning I was looking at sales in Canada and was thinking that 30M was assured for Saw. Weird.

Maybe Canadians are just inherently sick in the head. You guys ever find yourself in the mood to torture?

[misterpepp]

On 9/24/2023 at 11:20 PM, datpepper said:

 

Different source says this is now going on sale in the evening of Oct 1, at around 9pm EST. Another "we shall see" situation.

 

Scrap the evening, going on sale at 12:01am EST on Oct 1

[eman92]

23 hours ago, eman92 said:

 

Saw X T-2 Evening Update - Northern New Jersey 16 screen Theater

 

Coming down to the home stretch! Saw X had a very good day of sales at my theater. It outsold The Nun II in ticket sales on T-2 on every day of the weekend. Saw X sold 43 additional tickets vs The Nun II selling 28 tickets. As well Saw X now is ahead of The Nun II on Thursday sales, since Saw X sold an additional 10 Thursday night tickets vs The Nun II only selling an additional 4 on this day. 

 

T-2	The Nun II	Saw X
Thursday	70	73
Friday	85	78
Saturday	42	63
Sunday	14	18
Total	211	232

 

 

Saw X was 6 tickets ahead of The Nun II on T-3 and now it is 21 tickets ahead. Now, The Nun II did have a very very strong T-1, so I'll be curious to see how Saw X does tomorrow. But if Saw X again increases its lead on The Nun II then I would say we're in for a veryyyyyy interesting weekend. And the fact that Saw X is selling really well on Friday-Sunday I feel like speaks to the fact that its preview numbers on Thursday shouldn't be too over-inflated. 

 

Tomorrow will be very telling for Saw X, I believe the review embargo gets lifted so RottenTomatoes scores will be out. In general there have been social media reactions for the film and they have all been solid so far (But they usually are for most films). So we'll see! Saw X feels like the little engine that could. I just really hope it can pull off a solid weekend

 

1.04x of The Nun II for $3.23M Thursday Preview

1.10x of The Nun II for $35.85M Weekend incl Preview

 

Saw X T-1 Evening Update - Northern New Jersey 16 screen Theater

 

Alright we have reached the final Saw X update on my end as I did not track any further sales for The Nun II. This is a very interesting update, as The Nun II did make up some significant ground on Saw X, but in the end Saw X did sell more tickets for the weekend, ending with 295 tickets sold vs The Nun II at 289. The Nun II did overtake Saw X on Thursday by 2 ticket sales, and Friday it beat it by a good margin. But then on Saturday Saw X realllyyyy outsold The Nun II. So It's very confusing to me how Saw X will do. My stats have basically shown Saw X has stayed extremely consistent with The Nun II in terms of Thursday sales and overall weekend sales. 

 

Here are the final numbers:
 

T-1	The Nun II	Saw X
Thursday	91	89
Friday	120	102
Saturday	65	86
Sunday	13	18
Total	289	295

 

.98x of The Nun II for $3.03M Thursday Preview

1.02x of The Nun II for $33.28M Weekend incl Preview

 

In my heart I want Saw X to do 25M+ (Preferably over 30M), but I just don't know what to think anymore based on other updates we've gotten for Saw X. I just would be shocked to see Saw X do less than 25M based on how consistent it has been against The Nun II through all of its presale days. The two have really tracked extremely close to each other. I guess if Saw X comes in low this weekend, my theater was just an anomaly for Saw X. I'm really hoping though it pulls through.

 

MY PERSONAL guess for Saw X:

Thursday Preview 2.6M

Weekend 27.5M

 

 

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

The Creator MTC1

Wednesday - 7161/26820 149563.51 102 shows

Previews - 20168/230944 386033.10 1227 shows

 

MTC1 Previews Saw X - 13821/197690 216834.75 1228 shows

MTC1 Paw Patrol the Mighty Movie - 28284/448782 355961.94 3016 shows

 

Paw Patrol friday sales look good to me. it could still win the weekend while Creator should win Previews with early shows for sure. 

The Creator MTC1

Wednesday - 8239/27222 170639.69 103 shows +1078

Previews(T-1) - 23175/231582 440559.39 1240 shows +3007

 

MTC1 Previews Saw X(T-1) - 18022/200534 282547.52 1250 shows +4201

MTC1 Paw Patrol the Mighty Movie Friday - 35529/452902 446536.43 3039 shows +7245

 

 

Terrible growth for both Creator and Saw X. Paw Patrol is winning the weekend. 

[titanic2187]

Can we all agree the lack of cast promotion is the factor why presale lately often meh at the final week?

[emoviefan]

4 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Can we all agree the lack of cast promotion is the factor why presale lately often meh at the final week?

Yep really underscores how important the late night talk shows and actors being out their talking about their movies is.

[vale9001]

47 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Can we all agree the lack of cast promotion is the factor why presale lately often meh at the final week?

Absolutely.

 

[Porthos]

On 9/26/2023 at 11:56 PM, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-17 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	144	11135	19107	7972	41.72%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	1
Total Showings Added Today	4
Total Seats Added Today	310
Total Seats Sold Today	122

 

T-17 Comps:

	%		Sold T-17	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH	60.03		13279	13279		0/225	14920/28199	47.09%		28183	28.29%		30.02m	43.53m
MoM	80.84		226	9861		0/329	31047/40908	24.11%		21117	37.75%		29.10m	42.20m
Thor 4	132.12		158	6034		0/228	25566/31600	19.09%		16962	47.00%		38.31m	55.56m
BP2	121.27		146	6574		1/294	30450/37024	17.76%		16800	47.45%		33.95m	49.23m
AM3	181.59		99	4390		0/235	28166/32556	13.48%		10475	76.11%		31.78m	46.08m
GOTG3	232.22		73	3433		0/206	26211/29644	11.58%		10750	74.16%		40.64m	58.92m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

T-17 Final Percents:

	%		Sold T-17	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
Bats	216.98		156	3674		0/248	28624/32298	11.38%		11757	67.81%
JWD	360.07		48	2214		0/188	22929/25143	8.81%		10966	72.70%
Ava 2	317.86		96	2508		0/142	18830/21338	11.75%		8986	88.72%
AtSV	457.63		60	1742		0/123	18177/19919	8.75%		9744	81.81%
Barbie	511.68		91	1558		0/96	11069/12627	12.34%		12077	66.01%
Oppy	819.32		45	973		0/53	7277/8248	11.80%		4621	172.52%
Barben	314.97		136	2531		0/149	18346/20875	12.12%		16698	47.74%

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     2306/6150  [37.50% sold]

 

====

Came oh so so sooooo close to posting the Denzel Washington "BOOOM" gif as a preview as I was compiling the run, but juuuuuust came up short of my "boom" marker I had set (around 140-150+ or so).

 

As it is though today was more a "statement not a manifesto"* as to the possible power of Taylor Swift's reach on her social channels when it comes to marketing TET. 

*IYKYK

 

...

 

Okay, possibly an overstatement, but still a v good day.  At least compared to the sales of the last few weeks.

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-16 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	148	11372	19410	8038	41.41%

 

Total Showings Added Today	4
Total Seats Added Today	303
Total Seats Sold Today	66

 

T-16 Comps:

	%		Sold T-16	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH	54.90		1361	14640		0/273	19521/34161	42.86%		28183	28.52%		27.45m	39.81m
MoM	80.16		166	10027		0/351	32409/42436	23.63%		21117	38.06%		28.86m	41.85m
Thor 4	129.56		170	6204		0/228	25396/31600	19.63%		16962	47.39%		37.57m	54.48m
BP2	119.90		130	6704		1/294	30320/37024	18.11%		16800	47.85%		33.57m	48.68m
AM3	180.06		74	4464		0/239	28513/32977	13.54%		10475	76.74%		31.51m	45.69m
GOTG3	231.11		45	3478		0/203	25617/29095	11.95%		10750	74.77%		40.44m	58.64m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

T-16 Final Percents:

	%		Sold T-16	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
Bats	210.86		138	3812		0/280	30966/34778	10.96%		11757	68.37%
JWD	345.57		112	2326		0/190	22988/25314	9.19%		10966	73.30%
Ava 2	308.44		98	2606		0/142	18732/21338	12.21%		8986	89.45%
AtSV	441.41		79	1821		0/123	18098/19919	9.14%		9744	82.49%
Barbie	486.27		95	1653		0/96	10974/12627	13.09%		12077	66.56%
Oppy	790.36		44	1017		0/53	7231/8248	12.33%		4621	173.95%
Barben	301.05		139	2670		0/149	18205/20875	12.79%		16698	48.14%

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     2310/6150  [37.56% sold]

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Saw X, Thursday previews, T-2, southern Ontario

 

Total sales: 807

New Sales: 296

Growth from Monday: 58%

Theatre count: 46

Showtimes: 72

Tickets per showtime: 11.2

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

 

COMPS

1.881x of The Nun 2 for $5.8M 

1.416x of Equalizer 3 for $5.4M

1.072x of Blue Beetle for $3.5M

1.693x of T-3 of Haunting in Venice for $1.7M

 

Average of $4.1M

 

The Blue Beetle comp is the one that's been the most stsble surprisingly. It's still over indexing here, but, I feel this is likely to win the weekend.

 

 

Saw X, Thursday previews, T-1, southern Ontario

 

Total sales: 1012

New Sales: 205

Growth from Monday: 25%

Theatre count: 46

Showtimes: 72

Tickets per showtime: 14.1

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

 

COMPS

1.251x of The Nun 2 for $3.9M 

1.140x of Equalizer 3 for $4.3

0.872x of Blue Beetle for $2.9M

1.276x of Haunting in Venice for $1.5M

 

Average of $2.9M

 

Really poor finish here. As Friday and beyond sales were only available starting Tuesday night, I think the initial strong performance for Thursday previews cooled once those became available. This is still performing well compared to US markets, but the gap is closer with the weak finish.

[vafrow]

21 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Paw Patrol The Mighty Pups, T-2, Thursday previews, southern Ontario

 

Total sales: 522

New Sales: 188

Growth from T-4: 56%

Theatre Count: 47

Showtimes: 113

Tickets per showtime:  4.62

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

COMPS

1.760x Haunted Mansion for $5.5M

0.693x Blue Beetle for $2.3M

0.647x of Saw X for???

1.120x of The Creator for???

 

As the only area of Thursday previews for this domestically, it's not going to lead to an actual forecast, but it's still performing fantastically well for a Thursday.

 

Paw Patrol The Mighty Pups, T-1, Thursday previews, southern Ontario

 

Total sales: 662

New Sales: 140

Growth from yesterday: 27%

Theatre Count: 47

Showtimes: 113

Tickets per showtime:  5.86

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

COMPS

1.657x of Haunted Mansion for $5.2M

0.450x of Blue Beetle for $1.5M

0.516x of Saw X for ???

0.690 of The Creator for ???

 

Weak finish here. But it's performance has surprised to date, so, just this type of activity for a kida film at this time of year is good.

 

It fell below The Creator, which I'll update later, so it's third among this weeks opener, but it's also the one that should leg out better die to family audiences.

[vafrow]

On 9/26/2023 at 9:36 PM, vafrow said:

 

The Creator, Thursday previews (T-2), southern Ontario 

 

Total sales: 466

New sales: 164

Growth from yesterday: 54%

Theatres: 48

Showtimes: 100

Tickets per showtime: 4.66

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

0.818x of Equalizer 3 for $3.1M

 1.043x of Gran Turismo for $1.5M

0.797x of Blue Beetle for $2.6M

1.086x of Nun 2 for 3.4

 

I was hoping for a bit stronger with the reviews. Average of $2.6M.

 

 

The Creator, Thursday previews (T-1), southern Ontario 

 

Total sales: 757

New sales: 291

Growth from yesterday: 62%

Theatres: 48

Showtimes: 100

Tickets per showtime: 7.57

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

0.852x of Equalizer 3 for $3.2M

 1.074x of Gran Turismo for $1.5M

1.005x of Blue Beetle for $3.3M

0.936x of Nun 2 for $3.1M

0.748x of Saw X for ???

1.144 of Paw Patrol for ???

 

Average of $2.7M. 

 

Really strong final kick from The Creator. It made ground on comps. It has lots of premium screens as well, so will be helped by an increased ATP.

 

It's going to be a solid weekend overall.

Edited September 28, 2023 by vafrow

[vale9001]

WW premiere of TET on oct.11.

 

According to deadline could be a simulcast IMAX event with Swift attending It.

A couple of weeks ago the same was made with a Talking heads documentary and concert on 185 IMAX screens and that made 641K dollars. I guess with something like this even in more screens this could make 2-3 times that. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 28, 2023 by vale9001

[VanillaSkies]

51 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

WW premiere of TET on oct.11.

 

According to deadline could be a simulcast IMAX event with Swift attending It.

A couple of weeks ago the same was made with a Talking heads documentary and concert on 185 IMAX screens and that made 641K dollars. I guess with something like this even in more screens this could make 2-3 times that. 

 

 

 

 

 

With how strict they are being with the 6pm Friday start date, I doubt they will have early screenings on the Wednesday. But who knows, stranger things have happened I guess.

[vafrow]

4 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

With how strict they are being with the 6pm Friday start date, I doubt they will have early screenings on the Wednesday. But who knows, stranger things have happened I guess.

 

I feel running special live screenings on the Wednesday runs into the same problem that the concert tour has. There would be too much demand for the supply. Every hardcore Swiftie would want to be at one of those screenings. You're then running into ticket resellers and such jumping in, when the whole point of the concert film is to make her tour accessible. 

 

I think it's just treated as an LA event, generate some press, and then roll into a successful weekend.

[Blaze Heatnix]

The better than expected reviews for Saw X might improve its domestic performance, I assume.