The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

28 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I really REALLY don’t want to add to any alarmist narrative, but across the 5 theaters I regularly track, Marvels has sold 0 tickets so far in 4 of them. Yea, you heard that right. And only 1 of these are what you could consider a “small” theater.

 

The big theater (SilverCity in Victoria) has only sold 10 tickets across the entire weekend. I don’t usually track presales data this far out, but I have a few data points to work from. At this theater, Shang Chi was at 39 after an hour, Dune was at 60. NTTD, which skews older and walkup heavy was at 19. Flash was at 26. 
 

EDIT: just realized that these numbers for the other movies are Thursday only, where Marvels has 6 (4 others for the rest of the weekend).
 

Not even going to bother with comps to No Way Home or Eras Tour, which were in the hundreds after an hour. But this is really really pathetic, and worries me about the box office for the remainder of the year. Marvel needs to do something with this film to get people interested, and they need to do it fast. Yes, I understand that presales can pick up, but this is a very worrying start for a movie that is part of such a presales heavy franchise. At this point, I’m almost certain that FNAF will open higher.

 

It's not much, but based on some manual counts, I estimate that Marvels is at 10% of what Swift did in it's opening hours.

 

Because my local theatre doesn't have Marvels booked yet for some reason, it takes away my ability to do some very local comps as a measure. But, across my immediate radius, which includes about 10 theatres, which has 3 IMAX screens among them, this is averaging 3 tickets per showtime.

 

Across the Spiderverse sold 24 tickets across two showtimes in its first day locally, and my local usually lags below average.

 

I'm also tracking deep into the region that has one of the highest concentrations of south Asians in North America, so if representation is at all a driving factor, it's not reflecting here.

 

I still think there's some hope around this though. GOTG3 showed us that more and more Marvel fans are in the wait and see mode, and no one is expecting seat scarcity anymore.

 

But it's a bad start. Not much else that can really be said at this stage. Maybe the evening draws more sales.

[SpiderByte]

I feel that anything before 24 hours are up is presumptuous. There's many reasons why it wouldn't be frontloaded in the first four hours.

[Gabe0mazing]

4 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

I feel that anything before 24 hours are up is presumptuous. There's many reasons why it wouldn't be frontloaded in the first four hours.

You are right but that doesn't stop the numbers from being incredibly disappointing 𝘵𝘩𝘶𝘴 far.

Edited October 10, 2023 by Gabe0mazing

[Willowra]

what presales indicating at the moment? previews higher than Blue Beetle happening or not?

[Giorno]

3 minutes ago, Willowra said:

what presales indicating at the moment? previews higher than Blue Beetle happening or not?

marvel could put out a movie about an elephant taking a shit and it would have higher previews than blue beetle

[Liiviig 1998]

Will wait for 24 hours before making  any initial judgement.

 

But yeah this has been the least hyped MCU movie in a while . The only thing going for this is hope for good WOM .

[Relevation]

4 hours of sales for one Marvel movie with no official regional updates and this thread has already devolved into CBM doomcasting    

[Madhuvan]

I hope the presales aren't that bad cause it will start the narrative which Marvel wouldn't be able to overcome.

Let's see how 24hrs go 

[Eric is Anxious]

Moderation

 

Not the "Is superhero fatigue real" thread. Please focus on the numbers.

[Jsmitty]

To contribute to the early Marvels numbers at a base level.

 

3 theatres in my 15 mile radius area. Only 2 have posted pre-sale showtimes so far

 

Marvels Thursday pre sales today

 

Theatre 1:

6 showtimes including 3 3D 

3D theatre is 100 seats per showing 2D shows are 147 each

11 tickets sold so far in total

 

Theatre 2:

3 Showtimes (2 IMAX + 1 IMAX 3D) IMAX approx: 345 seats per

14 total tickets sold as of 3:45 PM EST

 

So in approx 4 hours of pre sales, 25 tickets sold across 9 posted shows in my city.

 

By my quick math that’s 1786 total available seats between the 2 theatres so far.

 

 

Also somewhat curiously none of the 3 theatres mentioned have started selling FNAF or Beyoncé at all.

KOTFM is available at 2 of 3 currently.

 

 

Edited October 10, 2023 by Jsmitty

[keysersoze123]

Fan driven movies tend to skew presales early on and then settle down. Having mediocre presales in 1st 6 hours is definitely not good at all. That said I am waiting on @Porthos. Sacramento has been on the money for these MCU movies. That will make or break its presales. 

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Fan driven movies tend to skew presales early on and then settle down. Having mediocre presales in 1st 6 hours is definitely not good at all. That said I am waiting on @Porthos. Sacramento has been on the money for these MCU movies. That will make or break its presales. 

Take it MTC1/2 not doing well either?

[vafrow]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Fan driven movies tend to skew presales early on and then settle down. Having mediocre presales in 1st 6 hours is definitely not good at all. That said I am waiting on @Porthos. Sacramento has been on the money for these MCU movies. That will make or break its presales. 

 

I will say that The Marvels has one potential advantage that there's not a lot of precedent for.

 

The SAG strike could be resolved in the next couple of weeks, and a barrage of press could get unleashed at any random point in the final couple of weeks of the sales cycle.

 

How much movement that could create is obviously unknown and subject to debate, but, it is a potential factor for why this won't follow traditional MCU release patterns.

 

 

[Porthos]

Got done setting up my sheets finally. 

 

...

 

DBOX IS THE FUCKING BANE OF MY EXISTENCE!!! 

 

Anyway, seeing what other are seeing when it comes to slow initial sales:

 

The Marvels 12:45pm:    362/27260  [1.33% sold] 183 showtimes

----

GOTG3 12:40pm:           1317/29568 [4.45% sold] 205 showtimes

 

I don't have easy access to either The Flash or Eternals initial setting up sheet numbers, so don't ask (spent the last 20 minutes looking).  Can in fact say that Eternals finished Day 1 at 874 tickets sold.  The Flash meanwhile clocked in at 640 tickets sold.

 

Have to see where it goes from here, but the numbers speak for themselves.

 

Edited October 10, 2023 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, YM! said:

Take it MTC1/2 not doing well either?

I have nothing. I was out all day so far. MTC1 is not working anymore. MTC2 will take lots of time to get any data. I was only anecdotally looking at usual big locations in NYC and other cities and this looks bit lighter than usual mega openers. Imax at Lincoln Square and some big PLF in other locations have filled up. Beyond that its looking sparse. But nothing concrete to say one way or other. 

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Got done setting up my sheets finally. 

 

...

 

DBOX IS THE FUCKING BANE OF MY EXISTENCE!!! 

 

Anyway, seeing what other are seeing when it comes to slow initial sales:

 

The Marvels 12:45pm:    362/27260  [1.33% sold] 183 showtimes

----

GOTG3 12:40pm:           1317/29568 [4.45% sold] 205 showtimes

 

I don't have easy access to either The Flash or Eternals initial setting up sheet numbers, so don't ask (spent the last 20 minutes looking).  Can in fact say that Eternals finished Day 1 at 874 tickets sold.  The Flash meanwhile clocked in at 640 tickets sold.

 

Have to see where it goes from here, but the numbers speak for themselves.

 

I looked at century arden and it has filled up for XD shows. Is that part of your set?

[MovieMan89]

3 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

I feel that anything before 24 hours are up is presumptuous. There's many reasons why it wouldn't be frontloaded in the first four hours.

Lol no. MCU is the king of frontloading. Marvels could have started out great and still potentially opened sub 75. We’ve seen initial pre-sales indicate OWs nearly twice as big as reality for MCU films. The fact that the needle isn’t moving at all is horrific for an MCU film. 

[keysersoze123]

13 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

I will say that The Marvels has one potential advantage that there's not a lot of precedent for.

 

The SAG strike could be resolved in the next couple of weeks, and a barrage of press could get unleashed at any random point in the final couple of weeks of the sales cycle.

 

How much movement that could create is obviously unknown and subject to debate, but, it is a potential factor for why this won't follow traditional MCU release patterns.

 

 

SAG strike has nothing to do with opening day presales. These are about hardcore fans who want to book as soon as possible. 

[Jsmitty]

Updated my post above regarding the 9 Thursday Marvel presale showtimes across 2 theatres. A total of 1786 available seats so far by my quick count. Will update semi regularly and/or when the 3rd theatre in my area goes live. 
 

1.4% so far.
 

Edited October 10, 2023 by Jsmitty

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I looked at century arden and it has filled up for XD shows. Is that part of your set?

 

It has not filled up for XD shows, as that is one of the DBOX locations.

 

Just for the XD showings:

4:10 (3D)    6/242

7:00 (2D) 53/242

9:50 (2D)   4/242

---

4:10 (3DBOX)  5/21

7:00 (DBOX)  10/21

9:50 (DBOX)    7/21

 

For 85 of the tickets sold in the region.

 

NB:  Century Arden "fills up" first in the region as it's the local powerhouse.

 

Literally about to run out the door, so no more time for commentary for a couple of hours.