The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Relevation]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

                       I CAN GO LOWER

 

Wish ***Unofficial*** Check of the Greater Sacramento Region 

6/9291 (0.06% sold) [56 showings]

 

Split was:

 

1 ticket sold at [SPOILER DELETED] 

and then much much muuuuuuuuuuch later

5 tickets sold at [SPOILER DELETED]

 

AND THE RESULT IS A TIE BETWEEN @tdangie at 8 or @TheFlatLannister at 4!!!!! 

 

...

 

I tend to think The Price is Right rules about "closest without going over" is a fair tie-breaker, so CONGRATULATIONS TO @TheFlatLannister!!!!!

 

Appropriate I think, being in the Land of Disney. 🙂 

A whole 0.16x of Elemental 

Glorious

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

9 (ok I technically made it late)

 

 

 

Trying to do The Price is Right strat from the other direction I see.  Could have worked.  Alas not this time. 😉 

 

[abracadabra1998]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

                       I CAN GO LOWER

 

Wish ***Unofficial*** Check of the Greater Sacramento Region 

6/9291 (0.06% sold) [56 showings/13 theaters]

 

Split was:

 

1 ticket sold at [SPOILER DELETED] 

and then much much muuuuuuuuuuch later

5 tickets sold at [SPOILER DELETED]

 

AND THE RESULT IS A TIE BETWEEN @tdangie at 8 or @TheFlatLannister at 4!!!!! 

 

...

 

I tend to think The Price is Right rules about "closest without going over" is a fair tie-breaker, so CONGRATULATIONS TO @TheFlatLannister!!!!!

 

Appropriate I think, being in the Land of Disney. 🙂 

And that’s with like 75% more seats/8 more showings/2 more theaters than my count… OOF!

 

Again, not too worried at the moment since it’s a loooong window and too much going on in the movie landscapes, but this is a baaaaad start

[HummingLemon496]

Just now, Relevation said:

A whole 0.16x of Elemental 

Glorious

[Porthos]

 

For the record...

 

of COURSE I was TOTALLY hinting at a meme-y result. 

 

Honestly a teeny bit surprised no one chose what I thought was a semi-obvious pick at "6". 

[HummingLemon496]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Trying to do The Price is Right strat from the other direction I see.  Could have worked.  Alas not this time. 😉 

 

I pressed enter on the comment like the second you made the comment revealing the answer. Oof

Edited October 14, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[charlie Jatinder]

34 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

SAT drop seems likely for Taylor.

MiniTC2 would suggest something like 25-30% drop from True FRI. MTC3 seems like 20%. I think MTC1 will hold better, probably 5-10%.

[charlie Jatinder]

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

                             I CAN GO LOWER

 

Wish ***Unofficial*** Check of the Greater Sacramento Region 

6/9291 (0.06% sold) [56 showings/13 theaters]

 

 

Wish T-(I will count later) MiniTC2

Previews - 0/15398 (75 showings)

[HummingLemon496]

Is it joever or no? Probably not yet. . .but god damn these presales are something else

Edited October 14, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[charlie Jatinder]

20 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Taylor Swift MiniTC2 T-1 Day

FRI - 16901/90146 (395 showings)

Taylor Swift MiniTC2

FRI - 18812/89634 (392 showings)

Thought it may do 21K but it didn't even hit 19K

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Is it joever or no? Probably not yet. . .but god damn these presales are something else

 

I mean, it's all fun and games and a laugh on a Fri Night, but I tend to think it means... absolutely nothing at all.

 

Well, besides: Don't release tickets for non-IP animated family films a month and a third out!

Edited October 14, 2023 by Porthos
Jat is right that being animated makes it even moar backloaded

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Is it joever or no? Probably not yet. . .but god damn these presales are something else

Its an original animation. Pre sales means nothing much till final week or two.

[HummingLemon496]

Ok, so presales don't really mean much for this type of film so far. Thanks for the clarification

[Relevation]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

I mean, it's all fun and games and a laugh on a Fri Night, but I tend to think it means... absolutely nothing at all.

 

Well, besides: Don't release tickets for non-IP Family Films a month and a third out!

Or if you do, at least bother telling moviegoers 

 

Honestly the fact that it sold as many tickets as it did in Orlando isn’t bad, it’s just way too early to make any kind of judgment from these sales 

I wouldn’t put too much stock until like Oct 16 once Disney does their big centennial celebration 

[JustLurking]

Not surprised about tickets for wish being shit. I don't know what disney is even doing putting an original animation for families on sale 40 days before release and with such little fanfare. I mean who the fuck is going to buy them this far out? There is no fanbase and the core demographic is probably the most late-buying audience.

[HummingLemon496]

"So I make this wish. . .to have something more for us than this"

 

Describes the presales pretty well

Edited October 14, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[Gabe0mazing]

6 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

"So I make this wish. . .to have something more for us than this"

 

Describes the presales pretty well

I want to be more optimistic but saying anything else would just be 𝐰𝐢𝐬𝐡𝐟𝐮𝐥 thinking

[Porthos]

On 10/13/2023 at 1:23 AM, Porthos said:

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	102	13393	15271	1878	12.30%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

83

 

T-14 Comps:

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	205.92		59	912		0/146	21155/22067	4.13%		4494	41.79%		15.44m
Scrm6	286.28		36	656		0/70	7662/8318	7.89%		3134	59.92%		16.32m
Wick4	163.16		64	1151		0/88	12191/13342	8.63%		5448	34.47%		14.52m
AtSV	94.56		94	1986		0/129	18803/20789	9.55%		9744	19.27%		16.41m
GOTG3	52.25		47	3594		0/203	25501/29095	12.35%		10750	17.47%		9.14m
Flash	153.06		65	1227		0/178	23921/25148	4.88%		5327	35.25%		14.85m
Barbie	94.42		176	1989		1/97	10623/12612	15.77%		12077	15.55%		21.06m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     432/3078  [14.04% sold]
Matinee:    162/926  [17.49% | 8.63% of all tickets sold]

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-13 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	102	13286	15271	1985	13.00%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

107

 

T-13 Comps:

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	203.59		63	975		0/146	21092/22067	4.42%		4494	44.17%		15.27m
Scrm6	281.96		48	704		0/78	9156/9860	7.14%		3134	63.34%		16.07m
Wick4	161.25		80	1231		0/89	12253/13484	9.13%		5448	36.44%		14.35m
AtSV	95.94		83	2069		0/129	18720/20789	9.95%		9744	20.37%		16.65m
GOTG3	53.98		83	3677		0/203	25377/29054	12.66%		10750	18.47%		9.45m
Flash	154.96		54	1281		0/178	23867/25148	5.09%		5327	37.26%		15.03m
Barbie	92.93		147	2136		0/99	10577/12713	16.80%		12077	16.44%		20.72m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     460/3078  [14.94% sold]
Matinee:    167/926  [18.03% | 8.41% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Just imagine how many tickets this would be selling if Universal actually had a standard promotion schedule behind it!

[Porthos]

On 10/13/2023 at 1:24 AM, Porthos said:

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-28 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	184	26622	27313	691	2.53%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

67

 

Day 3 Comps:

	%		Sold Day 3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	56.59		148	1221		0/96	14322/15543	7.86%		6409	10.78%		6.08m
GOTG3	29.39		194	2351		0/205	27217/29568	7.95%		10750	6.43%		5.14m
TLM	112.91		68	612		0/154	21382/21994	2.78%		6561	10.53%		11.63m
AtSV	50.85		87	1359		0/123	18537/19896	6.83%		9744	7.09%		8.83m
Flash	83.35		71	829		0/174	23899/24728	3.35%		5327	12.97%		8.09m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     75/8661  [0.87% sold]
Matinee:    25/2547  [0.98% | 3.62% of all tickets sold]
3D:            49/4901  [1.00% | 7.09% of all tickets sold]

===

 

Well, the bleeding has stopped, that's not nothing!  Running waaaay too late for other thoughts.  Switching to T-x in two days.

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-27 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	187	26779	27515	736	2.67%

 

Total Showings Added Today	3
Total Seats Added Today	202
Total Seats Sold Today	45

 

Day 4 Comps:

	%		Sold Day 4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	55.05		116	1337		0/96	14206/15543	8.60%		6409	11.48%		5.91m
GOTG3	29.88		112	2463		0/205	27105/29568	8.33%		10750	6.85%		5.23m
TLM	109.69		59	671		0/154	21323/21994	3.05%		6561	11.22%		11.30m
AtSV	50.41		101	1460		0/123	18436/19896	7.34%		9744	7.55%		8.75m
Flash	79.57		96	925		0/178	24217/25142	3.68%		5327	13.82%		7.72m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:        86/8661  [0.99% sold]
Matinee:    25/2547  [0.98% | 3.40% of all tickets sold]
3D:            54/4989  [1.08% | 7.34% of all tickets sold]

===

 

Switching to T-x comps and, GULP, bringing in the Indy 5 comp starting tomorrow...

[Hilts]

13 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-0	24	111	897	897	18,703	4.80%	-
MTC1	7	26		443	4,147	10.68%
MTC2	4	34		205	5,484	3.74%
MTC3	3	24		149	4,969	3.00%
Other	10	27		100	4,103	2.44%
Friday - showings starting 2pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-4	24	185	122	12,772	31,228	40.90%	0.96%
T-3	24	210	147	12,919	34,598	37.34%	1.15%
T-2	24	223	214	13,133	36,257	36.22%	1.66%
T-1	24	307	473	13,606	49,851	27.29%	3.60%
T-0	24	307	738	14,344	49,851	28.77%	5.42%
MTC1	7	106	+284	7,791	17,866	43.61%	3.78%
MTC2	4	62	+47	2,140	9,434	22.68%	2.25%
MTC3	3	56	+194	2,640	10,996	24.01%	7.93%
Other	10	83	+213	1,773	11,555	15.34%	13.65%
T-0 Comps						Raw	ATP adj*
Barbie				1.450x	=	$30.61m	$45.92m
Oppenheimer				2.946x	=	$30.93m	$46.40m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny				4.756x	=	$34.24m	$51.36m
Barbie (EA only)				19.176x	=	$21.09m	$31.64m

 

Final update here we go. Hopefully can still get to $40m+ Fri. I will try to pull Saturday early tomorrow.

 

Also it's basically 16x Thurs which is $44.775m Fri

  

On 10/7/2023 at 9:04 PM, Hilts said:

Saturday (+6 days of sales)

370 showings

7,586 total sold (+665)

60.3% of Friday (previously 58.7%)

 

Saturday (+7 days of sales)

469 showings (+99)

9,267 total sold (+1,681)

64.6% of Friday (previously 60.3%)

 

Played out as I thought here. Hopefully won't fall too much today nationally to still have an outside shot at $100m. Sunday hold is still up for debate so could be key.

 

No more Fri/Sat counts for me, learned the hard way 🙂 was good while it lasted, probably won't see presale numbers at this level for some time now. Never say never but I will be sticking to "normal" previews for the foreseeable.

 

Websites have been playing up for me the last couple of days but if smoother sailing today should be able to provide a full suite of updates later including Marvels and Wish.

 

Separately I remember someone asked about After Death the other day. I am tracking it but don't really have any appropriate comps and it definitely isn't another Sound of Freedom. Did have a better day yesterday though so may drop that in if I can find anything remotely useful to weigh up against. Will be interesting to see what The Shift can do as well.

 

Have been looking for The Holdovers too but very limited availability here currently and with how the expansion is going to play out I think it will be quite difficult to tell how this is going to go. Will keep monitoring but no promises.