The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

33 minutes ago, Cap said:

The three issues I had when tracking:

 

1. I lost or deleted a lot of my pre-Covid data. And even if I still had it, the markets change so much none of that would be worth looking at. So to start tracking the theaters again it would take at least six months to get any type of accurate comps because I’m just basically data mining until then.
 

2. we only have a couple Regals and like one AMC in Boston. Honestly, most of the data could probably be received from one of the larger reports.

 

3. The area is NOT pre sale heavy. Even before COVID, there would be like zero moment between Day One sales and Day Of Sales. So tracking in the north east would be more of a weekly thing than a daily thing.

 

It’s not the worst idea, and I don’t mind entertaining the idea of starting up again. I’m just not committing to anything until like December because of my job. I’ll probably grab some marvels data because it feels like something you should have.

 

Oh, I wasn't trying to nudge you back into tracking (though I do miss your reports ❤️), just mentioning you as one who had done it in the past. 🙂 

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

As someone who has been doing tracking in some form for .... well, a very long time (👴), to me the size or even location of the sample matters less than understanding the nuances of what is being tracking. Its not a question of quantity, but quality, in that a 5-10 theater geographically contained regional/sub-regional sample can be as - if not more - informative than grabbing an entire chain spread out overall several markets with competition. Yes, a smaller sample will naturally be more variable, but as the data set grows, using the right comps can correct for that market share fluctuation

 

Also, one other tip, particularly for those who track manually (also for scrapers who can spot check): pay attention to where and when tickets are being purchased, because that is often a clue as to WHO is buying the tickets:

• Are they concentrated in busy location(s), or spread out? Is there a certain theater/area that is over/under performing their usual ratio?
• What times are preferred? How do afternoon shows compare to 6-8pm, and do sales die off after 9pm, or are they strong there too?
• Especially when sales volume is lower, how are seats distributed? Singles (subscribers), doubles (couples), or strung together (families/groups)? Also, where are people sitting, towards the lower level (older adults), back row/corners (younger audience)?

The tracking in this thread is often down to a science, with comps and growth rate and such, but as much as we focus on the volume, do not forget it is science of people, that every ticket purchased gives more information than just a binary 1 or 0 (if you know where to look for it, and then how to apply it projecting forward)

 

This is really helpful feedback.

 

With my current method, I collect the data differently than in the past, and can probably track sales by showtime slots. It would have been very useful intel for Fnaf on where the demand was, and speak to demographics.

 

It might be late for Fnaf, but, I'll look to see what I can do on Marvels.

[Relevation]

FNAF debuted with a 30 on Metacritic, 8 points worse than The Exorcist: Believer

 

[Zakiyyah6]

Since when have reviews mattered for horror movies? 

[SpiderByte]

2 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Since when have reviews mattered for horror movies? 

The reasons for the negative review matter. People not liking saw because it's "torture porn gore" is different than the reviews saying FNAF isn't scary or fun

[Zakiyyah6]

27 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

The reasons for the negative review matter. People not liking saw because it's "torture porn gore" is different than the reviews saying FNAF isn't scary or fun

Horror fans have routinely disagreed with critics on what is scary. That's something that happens all the time. I don't give a damn about the IP so this is not me defending it at all. I just want to get that clear.

[TalismanRing]

 

14 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

That's coz a city area of tens of millions would be bananas.  Hell, I'm still surprised we get Houston coverage!

 

Can't even imagine how many theaters there are in the NYC area. Even if we restricted it to the more popular theaters, Empire 25 alone would make it... challenging.

 

Now a sub area of the NYC region might be interesting and doable.  Say one of the boroughs. But even then, logistics could get ugly, fast.

 

(we do in fact have occasional coverage of part of New York State thanks to local reporting from @TalismanRing, but not quite the same thing)

((and she's far too sane to even think about expanding her coverage map beyond her local theater 👍 ))

 

NYC reportedly has 200 or so movie theaters - many are small specialty theaters or parts of museums.  I have (or had - can't find it) a grid of 87 theaters where tracked films played but the most I ever counted showing one film was 69 for Endgame and that included several art house theaters and a couple on the fringe of Long Island.   The overwhelming majority are in Manhattan.  The Bronx with a population of 1.4m+  has TWO movie theaters..   Staten Island has I think 5.  Brooklyn has 21 (but 11 are single screen/specialty for a 2.57m pop).  Queens has about a dozen (2.25m)

 

I've counted some of the larger venues in Manhattan (Lincoln Center, Empire) when we've had blockbusters but overall the most I've done city wide is tally amounts of screens and count sellouts and near sellouts.  The last time I did this was for Endgame. 

 

Counting has become a bit easier since Fandango now lets you see the seating chart and what's filled without having to go through pretending to buy a ticket for every damn showing.  But still, yes I'd have to be insane to count them all.

 

[ZeeSoh]

Moderation 

 

Not the review thread OR the FNAF thread. These discussions can be had in the main FNAF thread or the weekday thread. Please keep discussions here on tracking, thanks. 

[Boxofficerules]

While I do hope the fans enjoy FNAF a lot more than I did, I just found it to be a slog to get through, after the opening scene nothing really happens for another hour and when it does it's over so fast it almost feels like the movie doesn't want to be a horror movie.

[The Wild Eric]

Quorum Updates

Five Nights at Freddy's T-2: 50.02% Awareness

Priscilla T-9: 29.14%

The Holdovers T-16: 16.76%

Journey to Bethlehem T-16: 18.23%

The Marvels T-16: 52.57%

Wish T-28: 40.68%

Eileen T-44: 12.94%

Lisa Frankenstein T-107: 12.71%

 

Freelance T-2: 30.59% Awareness

Final Awareness: 37% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 22% chance of 10M

 

Migration T-58: 23.53% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 58% chance of 10M, 31% chance of 20M, 11% chance of 30M, 8% chance of 40M, 4% chance of 70M, 2% chance of 80M

Animation/Family Awareness: 67% chance of 10M, 33% chance of 20M

[vafrow]

18 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Five Nights at Freddy's, T-2, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 1912

New sales: 368

Growth: 23.8%

Theatres: 10

Showtimes: 32

Tickets per showtime: 59.8

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

9.28x Saw X for $18.6M 

16.92x Nun 2 for $52.4M

 

Local Single Theatre Comps

1.31x ATSV for $22.8M

0.96x Barbie for $21.4M

 

Good growth again. One thing that's been really noticeable is how much it maintained pace with Saw X. It's obviously at a different scale, but both are films that seemed to have outperformed here in Canada. 

 

Also, a lot of the weekend sets went up, and it looks like FNAF is getting more screens. Makes me have faith that they've been paying attention. Sales have already been brisk for weeke shows. I think people have been waiting for these to go online.

 

 

Just to add some detail per some advice, ticket sales breakdown as follows:

 

Early afternoon: 2.6%

Late Afternoon: 15.8%

Early Evening: 60.5%

Late Evening: 21.1%

 

I'll see if I can incorporate into tje last couple of updates on this. Capacity at early evening is hitting capacity restrictions, and availability of afternoon shows are limited to about half the theatres.

[el sid]

After Death, counted today for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): no showtimes
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 18 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 18 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 6 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 10 (2 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 19 (3 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 71.

Comps: Overcomer (775k from previews) finally (on Thursday for Thursday) had 91 sold tickets
and Sound of Freedom (?) had on Tuesday for Tuesday (so it's the other way around, After Death has 1 day left) 1.189 sold tickets.

After Death, counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): no showtimes
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 29 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 75 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (5 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 17 (7 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 17 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 29 (4 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 167.

Comps: Overcomer (3M OD including previews) finally (on Thursday for Thursday) had 34 sold tickets
and Sound of Freedom (14.2M OD including previews) had again one day earlier, on Tuesday, 380 sold tickets.
 

Really hard to say if these are good presales or not. Sound of Freedom was more of a genre mix and faith-based films often don't need huge presales to have at least acceptable weekend numbers. IMO the Friday number (ca. 1/3 - 1/2 of Sound of Freedom) of After Death is decent.

 

Edited October 25, 2023 by el sid

[el sid]

Again very briefly: Freelance had today for Thursday 41 sold tickets in 4 theaters.

Comps (all counted on Wednesday of the release week for Thursday): The Expend4bles (750k from previews) had 210 sold tickets in 7 theaters,

Plane (435k) had 161 in 7 theaters,
Copshop (950k OD) had 34
and Kandahar (921k OD) had in the same 4 theaters 16 sold tickets.
Under 5M OW IMO, maybe Copshop numbers (2-3M OW).

 

At the moment it's not the best time for me to count but I will try to count FNAF and After Death tomorrow, in all 7 theaters of course.

Today I only counted FNAF's presales for Friday in my AMC in NY and they are indeed very good (way better than on Thursday). It had 459 sold tickets in that theater.
Comps (both also counted on Wednesday of the release week for Friday): The Nun II (9.9M true Friday) had in the AMC in NY 237 sold tickets. And the AMC in NY was a strong theater for The Nun II.
Saw X (6M) had 166 sold tickets.

Edited October 25, 2023 by el sid

[Hilts]

On 10/24/2023 at 9:07 PM, Hilts said:

 

After Death							OK
Thursday - showings starting 5pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-6	12	23	9	93	2,116	4.40%	10.71%
T-5	12	23	8	101	2,020	5.00%	8.60%
T-4	12	23	5	106	2,020	5.25%	4.95%
T-3	12	23	17	123	2,020	6.09%	16.04%
T-2	17	33	24	147	2,950	4.98%	19.51%
MTC1	5	9	+4	35	732	4.78%	12.90%
MTC2	4	8	+4	30	860	3.49%	15.38%
MTC3	3	6	+16	76	706	10.76%	26.67%
Other	5	10	0	6	652	0.92%	0.00%
Comps
Asteroid City					0.891x	=	$0.98m
Sound of Freedom					0.047x	=	$0.24m
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3					1.729x	=	$0.95m
A Haunting in Venice					0.795x	=	$0.95m
The Creator					0.471x	=	$0.75m

 

Would go with just under $1m at the moment.

 

After Death							OK
Thursday - showings starting 5pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-5	12	23	8	101	2,020	5.00%	8.60%
T-4	12	23	5	106	2,020	5.25%	4.95%
T-3	12	23	17	123	2,020	6.09%	16.04%
T-2	17	33	24	147	2,950	4.98%	19.51%
T-1	19	43	23	170	3,520	4.83%	15.65%
MTC1	6	14	+3	38	1,001	3.80%	8.57%
MTC2	4	8	+3	33	860	3.84%	10.00%
MTC3	3	6	+17	93	706	13.17%	22.37%
Other	6	15	0	6	953	0.63%	0.00%
Comps
Asteroid City					0.817x	=	$0.90m
Sound of Freedom					0.048x	=	$0.25m
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3					1.574x	=	$0.87m
A Haunting in Venice					0.694x	=	$0.83m
The Creator					0.375x	=	$0.60m

 

Not great, thinking could land around $750k-$800k now.

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/23/2023 at 3:09 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

380

1100

34.55%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

275

1288

21.35%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 3 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2195	559	14648	14.98%	13	88

 

0.407	Barbie T-3	9.08M
1.420	The Flash T-3	13.77M
0.701	AtSV T-3	12.17M
0.540	Guardians 3 T-3	9.45M
1.688	Black Adam T-3	12.83M

Five Nights at Freddy's Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

454

1779

25.52%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

379

1567

24.19%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2912	717	20424	14.26%	13	129

 

0.385	Barbie T-1	8.59M
1.399	The Flash T-1	13.57M
0.626	AtSV T-1	10.86M
0.566	Guardians 3 T-1	9.90M
1.537	Black Adam T-1	11.68M

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/23/2023 at 3:22 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Alamo Drafthouse [+3 days of sales]

T-3 Thursday

163 Showings

5862

+924

19391

ATP:

15.12

1.139	The Flash T-3	11.05M
0.652	AtSV T-3	11.31M
0.428	Guardians 3 T-3	7.48M
1.773	Black Adam T-3	13.47M

 

T-4 Friday

203 Showings

6368

+1267

24188

ATP:

14.34

1.781	The Flash T-4	26.36M
0.755	AtSV T-4	26.06M
0.475	Guardians 3 T-4	14.54M
1.975	Black Adam T-4	37.71M

 

T-5 Saturday

208 Showings

4723

+1110

23873

ATP:

13.88

1.522	The Flash T-5	23.89M
0.621	AtSV T-5	23.22M
0.316	Guardians 3 T-5	12.29M
1.570	Black Adam T-5	37.23M

 

T-6 Sunday

180 Showings

2200

+495

21407

ATP:

13.00

1.233	The Flash T-6	19.11M
0.436	AtSV T-6	13.62M
0.251	Guardians 3 T-6	7.87M
1.977	Black Adam T-6	32.82M

Five Nights at Freddy's Alamo Drafthouse [+2 days of sales]

T-1 Thursday

202 Showings

7248

+1386

23385

ATP:

15.05

1.049	The Flash T-1	10.17M
0.558	AtSV T-1	9.67M
0.421	Guardians 3 T-1	7.37M
1.571	Black Adam T-1	11.94M

 

T-2 Friday

283 Showings

8891

+2523

34142

ATP:

14.24

1.618	The Flash T-2	23.94M
0.689	AtSV T-2	23.79M
0.497	Guardians 3 T-2	15.20M
1.766	Black Adam T-2	33.71M

 

T-3 Saturday

283 Showings

6439

+1716

33171

ATP:

13.78

1.426	The Flash T-3	22.39M
0.579	AtSV T-3	21.66M
0.327	Guardians 3 T-3	12.71M
1.461	Black Adam T-3	34.65M

 

T-4 Sunday

240 Showings

3216

+1016

29113

ATP:

13.08

1.084	The Flash T-4	16.81M
0.468	AtSV T-4	14.64M
0.279	Guardians 3 T-4	8.76M
1.824	Black Adam T-4	30.29M

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/23/2023 at 3:24 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Emagine Entertainment [+3 days of sales]

T-3 Thursday

124 Showings

3093

+803

18180

0.407	Barbie T-3	9.07M
1.485	The Flash T-3	14.40M
0.976	AtSV T-3	16.93M

 

T-4 Friday

155 Showings

7491

+2419

22128

0.666	Barbie T-4	32.10M
4.977	The Flash T-4	73.67M
2.164	AtSV T-4	74.67M

 

T-5 Saturday

156 Showings

3332

+1274

22254

0.519	Barbie T-5	24.81M
2.885	The Flash T-5	45.29M
1.710	AtSV T-5	63.94M

 

T-6 Sunday

144 Showings

967

+413

20296

0.285	Barbie T-6	12.44M
1.593	The Flash T-6	24.69M
1.249	AtSV T-6	39.04M

Five Nights at Freddy's Emagine Entertainment [+2 days of sales]

T-1 Thursday

181 Showings

4166

+1073

25200

0.378	Barbie T-1	8.44M
1.316	The Flash T-1	12.77M
0.777	AtSV T-1	13.47M

 

T-2 Friday

271 Showings

10422

+2931

36570

0.611	Barbie T-2	29.43M
4.385	The Flash T-2	64.89M
1.751	AtSV T-2	60.41M

 

T-3 Saturday

262 Showings

4866

+1534

34787

0.477	Barbie T-3	22.82M
2.731	The Flash T-3	42.87M
1.438	AtSV T-3	53.78M

 

T-4 Sunday

238 Showings

1446

+479

33057

0.244	Barbie T-4	10.68M
1.324	The Flash T-4	20.52M
1.006	AtSV T-4	31.42M

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/23/2023 at 3:25 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

213

3221

6.61%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

154

2202

6.99%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 3 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
806	46	26872	3.00%	13	139

 

1.185	Indiana Jones 5 T-17	8.53M
1.100	The Flash T-17	10.67M

0.713

Eternals T-17

6.78M

The Marvels Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

228

3221

7.08%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

157

2202

7.13%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
842	36	26872	3.13%	13	139

 

1.161	Indiana Jones 5 T-15	8.36M
1.050	The Flash T-15	10.18M

0.666

Eternals T-15

6.33M

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/23/2023 at 3:27 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Alamo Drafthouse [+3 days of sales]

T-17 Thursday

168 Showings

3193

+212

25199

ATP:

17.28

0.758	Indiana Jones 5 T-17	5.45M
1.597	The Flash T-17	15.49M

 

T-18 Friday

225 Showings

2668

+291

35187

ATP:

17.07

0.746	Indiana Jones 5 T-18	12.54M
2.180	The Flash T-18	32.26M

 

T-19 Saturday

233 Showings

2475

+299

36219

ATP:

15.89

0.703	Indiana Jones 5 T-19	13.05M
2.234	The Flash T-19	35.07M

 

T-20 Sunday

218 Showings

1027

+136

33942

ATP:

15.62

0.576	Indiana Jones 5 T-20	10.42M
2.313	The Flash T-20	35.85M

The Marvels Alamo Drafthouse [+2 days of sales]

T-15 Thursday

168 Showings

3271

+78

25199

ATP:

17.28

0.728	Indiana Jones 5 T-15	5.24M
1.531	The Flash T-15	14.85M

0.772

Eternals T-15

7.34M

 

T-16 Friday

225 Showings

2850

+182

35187

ATP:

17.09

0.734	Indiana Jones 5 T-16	12.33M
2.071	The Flash T-16	30.65M

0.805

Eternals T-16

17.18M

 

T-17 Saturday

233 Showings

2594

+119

36219

ATP:

15.90

0.690	Indiana Jones 5 T-17	12.83M
2.075	The Flash T-17	32.58M

0.723

Eternals T-17

17.44M

 

T-18 Sunday

215 Showings

1134

+107

33555

ATP:

15.59

0.574	Indiana Jones 5 T-18	10.39M
2.329	The Flash T-18	36.09M

0.549

Eternals T-18

8.97M

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/23/2023 at 3:28 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Emagine Entertainment [+3 days of sales]

T-17 Thursday

158 Showings

935

+62

25522

1.092	Indiana Jones 5 T-17	7.86M
1.058	The Flash T-17	10.26M

 

T-18 Friday

242 Showings

471

+81

39648

1.180	Indiana Jones 5 T-18	19.83M
1.024	The Flash T-18	15.15M

 

T-19 Saturday

252 Showings

404

+74

40523

1.719	Indiana Jones 5 T-19	31.94M
1.221	The Flash T-19	19.16M

 

T-20 Sunday

240 Showings

191

+50

39121

2.146	Indiana Jones 5 T-20	38.84M
1.605	The Flash T-20	24.88M

The Marvels Emagine Entertainment [+2 days of sales]

T-15 Thursday

158 Showings

962

+27

25519

1.058	Indiana Jones 5 T-15	7.62M
0.988	The Flash T-15	9.58M

 

T-16 Friday

242 Showings

500

+29

39642

1.085	Indiana Jones 5 T-16	18.22M
0.929	The Flash T-16	13.75M

 

T-17 Saturday

252 Showings

473

+69

40519

1.833	Indiana Jones 5 T-17	34.06M
1.344	The Flash T-17	21.10M

 

T-18 Sunday

243 Showings

210

+19

39321

1.963	Indiana Jones 5 T-18	35.52M
1.448	The Flash T-18	22.45M