The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[HummingLemon496]

4 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

The Rock didn't win crap. Black Adam being less of a flop than other flops doesn't suddenly make it a success. That's not how box office works. 

Well, fine I guess. Anyways let's stop talking about BA in the tracking thread before a mod comes 🙂 🔫

[Porthos]

On 10/20/2023 at 12:20 AM, Porthos said:

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-42 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	71	10477	11045	568	5.14%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Thursday

30

 

Comp against TET's Thursday Preview FINAL:

0.55851x The Era Tours Final Previews [1.88m] [1.2x adj]

 

Next update, next Thursday night (T-35).

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-35 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	71	10404	11019	615	5.58%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Thursday

47

 

Comp against TET's Thursday Preview FINAL:

0.60472x The Era Tours Final Previews [2.07m] [1.2x adj]

 

====

 

Got to admit, I've been.... kinda impressed with the sales for this in the extreme low U curve right now.  Well, relatively speaking.  But, like, 47 tickets sold between T-42 and T-35 for a film that had already been on sale for nearly a month is not nothing.  I mean, not trying to oversell it here or anything.  Just sayin'... "kinda impressed — well, relatively speaking."

 

Next update, next Thursday Night (T-28).

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	189	26458	27577	1119	4.06%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

13

 

T-15 Comps:

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	59.43		127	1883		0/96	13658/15541	12.12%		6409	17.46%		6.38m
GOTG3	31.55		69	3547		0/203	25548/29095	12.19%		10750	10.41%		5.52m
TLM	77.71		96	1440		0/154	21277/22717	6.34%		6561	17.06%		8.00m
AtSV	59.14		71	1892		0/123	18027/19919	9.50%		9744	11.48%		10.27m
Flash	96.30		46	1162		0/178	23986/25148	4.62%		5327	21.01%		9.34m
Indy 5	95.72		53	1169		0/128	19072/20241	5.78%		4767	23.47%		6.89m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:       157/8661  [1.81% sold]
Matinee:    38/2548  [1.49% | 3.40% of all tickets sold]
3D:              71/5021  [1.41% | 6.34% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

@keysersoze123 :  Um.... Not yet. 🙂 

 

PREEMPTIVE (not a mod, mind) "***NOT*** THE MARVELS THREAD" REMINDER, and keeping the following solely on tracking:  I did express some ambivalence at the idea that any sort of major rumor-mongering might have enough time locally to be picked up by tracking.  Could have gone either way, as I was just unsure.  So.... "Um... Not yet. 🙂 "

 

NB:  While I did mention a possible incoming Halo Effect in that very post, a key component of my Halo Effect thoughts is that folks have to be at the theater to get a "sure, I'll pick up some tickets for UPCOMING MOVIE while I'm here" boost.  I would tend to think just the opposite might be happening in the direct lead up/day before a major release.  Though I admit to not paying nearly as much casual attention to that sort of thing.

 

Anyway.... "Not yet. 🙂 "

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	189	26357	27517	1160	4.22%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

41

 

T-14 Comps:

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	58.03		116	1999		0/96	13542/15541	12.86%		6409	18.10%		6.23m
GOTG3	32.28		47	3594		0/203	25501/29095	12.35%		10750	10.79%		5.65m
TLM	75.97		87	1527		0/154	21187/22714	6.72%		6561	17.68%		7.82m
AtSV	58.41		94	1986		0/129	18803/20789	9.55%		9744	11.90%		10.14m
Flash	94.54		65	1227		0/178	23921/25148	4.88%		5327	21.78%		9.17m
Indy 5	92.21		89	1258		0/128	18983/20241	6.22%		4767	24.33%		6.64m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     164/8601  [1.91% sold]
Matinee:    40/2548  [1.57% | 3.45% of all tickets sold]
3D:            72/5021  [1.43% | 6.21% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

@keysersoze123 Sorta, kinda?  If I squint?  Probs more folks who were at the theater today also buying tickets.  I mean, yes it's waaay better than the terribad last two days. But it isn't that much better than the T-20 to T-18 period.

 

So... "Sorta, kinda, if I squint."

[M37]

5 hours ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

I’m halting all tracking if this is even remotely accurate….

 

Tonight, box office sources tell us that Thursday previews are racking up north of$7M but warn “are very frontloaded.”

 

https://deadline.com/2023/10/box-office-five-nights-at-freddys-1235584788/

Oh Deadline

 

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

The Marvels, T-15, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 604

New sales: 32

Growth: 5.6%

Theatres: 9 of 10 

Showtimes: 39

Tickets per showtime: 15.5

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

No reasonable comps available for regional population

 

Single theatre comp:

0.619x of ATSV for $10.7M

 

% Breakdown of sales (previous breakdown of sales)

 

Late afternoon: 2.6 (2.8)

Early evening: 82.1 (83.4)

Late Evening: 14.6 (13.8)

 

Added in the showtime slot analysis. I'm not sure on the utility of this, but in terms of additional data dimensions that I could bring, it felt like the most interesting to me.  I was going to bring format instead, but, with so many variations and overlaps (Dolby, 3d, screen X, VIP recliner, etc.), it felt too complex. And with a small theatre set, I'm unsure on utility. I'm open to any feedback on this approach.

 

As for sales, no measurable impact of any cameo rumors. Nor would I expect much. I think fans focused on that are already on board (note: I have no idea what's even being rumored).

 

The Marvels, T-14, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 628

New sales: 24

Growth: 4.0%

Theatres: 9 of 10 

Showtimes: 39

Tickets per showtime: 16.1

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

No reasonable comps available for regional population

 

Single theatre comp:

0.520x of ATSV for $9.0M

 

% Breakdown of sales (previous breakdown of sales)

 

Late afternoon: 2.5 (2.6)

Early evening: 82.2 (82.1)

Late Evening: 14.6 (14.6)

 

It's slowing down slightly, which isn't good.

 

It makes me wonder what theatres will do for showtimes. MTC4 sets it's schedules for the following week on Tuesday night, which means this Tuesday, it'll confirm it's schedule for Thursday previews.

 

It's hard to see how they can justify expansion here, even though Swift is supposed to drop off. Theatres are going to be able to extend Swift another week without a lot of issue if that's what she wants. The week after gets dicey with Trolls and Hunger Games though.

 

[Shawn Robbins]

$10.3m official FNAF previews

[Arlborn]

12 hours ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

I’m halting all tracking if this is even remotely accurate….

 

Tonight, box office sources tell us that Thursday previews are racking up north of$7M but warn “are very frontloaded.”

 

https://deadline.com/2023/10/box-office-five-nights-at-freddys-1235584788/

[Zakiyyah6]

I knew Deadline's 7M projection was nonsense. They were desperate to cling to that 50M opening weekend prediction.

[M37]

11 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I knew Deadline's 7M projection was nonsense. They were desperate to cling to that 50M opening weekend prediction.

To be somewhat fair, they reported what a source gave them. But said source was way off the mark 

[Jake4]

8 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-35 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	71	10404	11019	615	5.58%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Thursday

47

 

Comp against TET's Thursday Preview FINAL:

0.60472x The Era Tours Final Previews [2.07m] [1.2x adj]

 

====

 

Got to admit, I've been.... kinda impressed with the sales for this in the extreme low U curve right now.  Well, relatively speaking.  But, like, 47 tickets sold between T-42 and T-35 for a film that had already been on sale for nearly a month is not nothing.  I mean, not trying to oversell it here or anything.  Just sayin'... "kinda impressed — well, relatively speaking."

 

Next update, next Thursday Night (T-28).

What does this mean? Help..lol. Is it looking like at least 20m OW?

[jeffthehat]

On 10/26/2023 at 8:16 AM, jeffthehat said:

 

Five Nights at Freddy's Malco Thursday T-0

 

Coverage - 10/33 theaters

Show count - 25

Seats sold - 615

Total seats - 4270

% sold - 14.4%

New sales - 317

 

no comps

 

Friday T-1

 

Show count - 111

Seats sold - 1832

Total seats - 14570

% sold - 12.3%

New sales - 783

 

Comp 

 

2.98x FNaF Thu T-0 = ??

 

---

 

$30m+ true Friday looks in reach to me. Thinking $80m +/- $10m for the weekend. 

 

 

 

Five Nights at Freddy's Friday T-0

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco theaters

Show count - 111

Seats sold - 3325

Total seats - 14570

% sold - 22.8%

New sales - 1493

 

Comps 

 

5.41x FNaF Thu T-0 = $55.7m

0.56x Eras Fri T-0 = $19.4m / $9.7m ATP adjusted (-50%)

 

Average = $32.7m

---

 

$30m+ def looks doable to me today. Let's see. 

 

 

[keysersoze123]

Just for records

Five Nights in Freddy's

Previews Final - 176412/562443 2562597.40 3922 shows

Friday PS End - 262460/834936 3730113.12 5566 shows

 

Freddy's did not have a great finish but it did under index here. I hope the same happens for Friday BO as well. 

[Taylor89]

1 hour ago, Jake4 said:

What does this mean? Help..lol. Is it looking like at least 20m OW?

 

I didn't understand either. Was it sarcasm?😭

[vafrow]

Yesterday was a busy day for me so I couldn't do an update on Fnaf. But, when I eyeballed things, walk ups weren't spectacular or anything, so, if I did, comps likely would have come down as we saw elsewhere. But, I was still comping around high teens, so, it would still have been mid teens.

 

Enough that it will have over indexed in the region and likely Canada as a whole, but not by a margin that it would have really swayed the total.

 

It also remains a difficult film to use as a comp in the future because of the ticket window. Pre-sales only opened up at T-9, and only some theatres got full weekend showtimes (in the area of 30% or so). This isn't too uncommon for smaller films, but odd for a film of this size.

 

One thing I really haven't gotten a handle on yet is understanding or predicting what will over index. I hoped going with a bigger sample would have things track closer to standard, and that it was just sampling, but, I'm coming to the realization of what people have been warning me on for a while, which is Canada is just a very different market. 

[TheFlatLannister]

2 hours ago, Shawn said:

$10.3m official FNAF previews

This makes way more sense lol. Thanks Shawn 

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Jake4 said:

What does this mean? Help..lol. Is it looking like at least 20m OW?

Its just looking at thursday previews data for one city and compared against Eras Tour thursday. I am not sure if its a fair comp as Renaissance started its presales cycle with thursday sales while Eras added thursday shows just a day before release. I would rather compare with early numbers for Friday which started like a previews. Then the comp wont look good at all :-)

 

You cannot extrapolate with just previews at this point. This movie will be frontloaded for sure. 2m previews wont be enough for 20m OW. That said its not just making 2m previews. Just one chain has sold more than that in just week worth of presales. 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Jake4 said:

What does this mean? Help..lol. Is it looking like at least 20m OW?

 

11 minutes ago, Taylor89 said:

 

I didn't understand either. Was it sarcasm?😭

 

It was not sarcasm. 🙂  What it means, IMO, is that it is fairly likely that Renaissance's preview night will be better than Swift's last second announcement's preview night for TET when all is said and done.  Which given the different announcement strategies of the two concert movies in question (not to mention length of pre-sales) really shouldn't be a surprise.

 

What does it mean for the OW? Hell if I know.  I deal mostly with preview nights and leave the OW implications to others. 🙂 

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, Shawn said:

$10.3m official FNAF previews

 

Well done, once again, Tracking Team! 👍

 

As I scan projections, we were mostly around 10.5 near as I can tell.  And even if I allow for 10.5m-11m as a bit of a hedge, if I check my calculator and double check using an abacus that is slightly closer than Deadline's 7m"+". 😉 

 

I'd do a personal victory lap this morning with 10.6m +/-.6m (and lord do I feel I need it after the TET fiasco), but instead I'll go ahead and tag @TwoMisfits and say looks like it came smack dab in the middle of your "flat 10m" and my 10.6m call, so I'll just say we can both be winners there. 

 

[Taylor89]

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

It was not sarcasm. 🙂  What it means, IMO, is that it is fairly likely that Renaissance's preview night will be better than Swift's last second announcement's preview night for TET when all is said and done.  Which given the different announcement strategies of the two concert movies in question (not to mention length of pre-sales) really shouldn't be a surprise.

 

What does it mean for the OW? Hell if I know.  I deal mostly with preview nights and leave the OW implications to others. 🙂 

 

Thanks for clarifying🧡

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Its just looking at thursday previews data for one city and compared against Eras Tour thursday. I am not sure if its a fair comp as Renaissance started its presales cycle with thursday sales while Eras added thursday shows just a day before release. I would rather compare with early numbers for Friday which started like a previews. Then the comp wont look good at all 🙂

 

You cannot extrapolate with just previews at this point. This movie will be frontloaded for sure. 2m previews wont be enough for 20m OW. That said its not just making 2m previews. Just one chain has sold more than that in just week worth of presales. 

 

I would add it's *NOT* a comp but a look against a FINAL total of a film, as since the release/pre-sale patterns of the two films are ***SO*** different that comps are pretty much impossible.  I should probably remove the word "comp" and figure something else to put in there.  Luckily I have a week or so to think of what to put in there. 😉