The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TwoMisfits]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Numbers are definitely closing in. Big cities driven by Imax/PLF have not done that bad but rest of the country seem meh. I think Sacto final could provide the best picture. 

 

FYI The Marvels MTC2 Previews (T-1) - 41735/592958 595994.95 4581 shows.

 

Its beyond mediocre here compared to MTC1. Probably looking at finishing in 70kish range though I cannot confirm it. Probably looking at 6m ish from here. But overall could be higher as MTC1 is pointing to close to 7m. 

 

Comps Eternals - 76089 // 13587 over previous day

 

its around 60% of Eternals with half the pace as well !!!

 

60% of Eternals $9.5M is $5.7M...

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Alamo Drafthouse

T-1 Thursday

269 Showings

6751

+837

35959

ATP:

16.88

0.977	The Flash T-1	9.47M
0.519	AtSV T-1	9.01M
0.392	Guardians 3 T-1	6.86M
0.854	Eternals T-1	8.11M

 

T-2 Friday

400 Showings

8068

+1484

54517

ATP:

16.46

1.468	The Flash T-2	21.73M
0.626	AtSV T-2	21.58M
0.451	Guardians 3 T-2	13.80M
0.926	Eternals T-2	19.76M

 

T-3 Saturday

397 Showings

6518

+992

54728

ATP:

15.62

1.443	The Flash T-3	22.66M
0.586	AtSV T-3	21.93M
0.331	Guardians 3 T-3	12.86M
0.788	Eternals T-3	19.01M

 

T-4 Sunday

374 Showings

3321

+491

51453

ATP:

15.42

1.120	The Flash T-4	17.36M
0.484	AtSV T-4	15.11M
0.288	Guardians 3 T-4	9.05M
0.675	Eternals T-4	11.02M

The Marvels Alamo Drafthouse

T-0 Thursday

269 Showings

8253

+1502

35959

ATP:

16.73

0.877	The Flash T-0	8.51M
0.463	AtSV T-0	8.03M
0.406	Guardians 3 T-0	7.11M
0.822	Eternals T-0	7.81M

 

T-1 Friday

400 Showings

9609

+1541

54517

ATP:

16.32

1.384	The Flash T-1	20.49M
0.560	AtSV T-1	19.33M
0.469	Guardians 3 T-1	14.36M
0.920	Eternals T-1	19.64M

 

T-2 Saturday

396 Showings

7619

+1101

54553

ATP:

15.60

1.383	The Flash T-2	21.72M
0.541	AtSV T-2	20.25M
0.341	Guardians 3 T-2	13.26M
0.770	Eternals T-2	18.58M

 

T-3 Sunday

373 Showings

3914

+593

51278

ATP:

15.38

1.010	The Flash T-3	15.66M
0.446	AtSV T-3	13.95M
0.295	Guardians 3 T-3	9.26M
0.688	Eternals T-3	11.24M

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

60% of Eternals $9.5M is $5.7M...

ATP's have gone up and you can add something to that. 

 

  

5 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Alamo Drafthouse

T-0 Thursday

269 Showings

8253

+1502

35959

ATP:

16.73

0.877	The Flash T-0	8.51M
0.463	AtSV T-0	8.03M
0.406	Guardians 3 T-0	7.11M
0.822	Eternals T-0	7.81M

 

T-1 Friday

400 Showings

9609

+1541

54517

ATP:

16.32

1.384	The Flash T-1	20.49M
0.560	AtSV T-1	19.33M
0.469	Guardians 3 T-1	14.36M
0.920	Eternals T-1	19.64M

 

T-2 Saturday

396 Showings

7619

+1101

54553

ATP:

15.60

1.383	The Flash T-2	21.72M
0.541	AtSV T-2	20.25M
0.341	Guardians 3 T-2	13.26M
0.770	Eternals T-2	18.58M

 

T-3 Sunday

373 Showings

3914

+593

51278

ATP:

15.38

1.010	The Flash T-3	15.66M
0.446	AtSV T-3	13.95M
0.295	Guardians 3 T-3	9.26M
0.688	Eternals T-3	11.24M

 

This is the other TC which is strong apart from MTC1 :-)

 

Edited November 9, 2023 by keysersoze123

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

ATP's have gone up and you can add something to that. 

 

True, but slower last minute sales pace would even that out (aka fewer walkups coming in offsets the higher ticket price)...

 

I was in 2 weeks ago for $6.3M...BUT if I was giving myself a range, I'd now make my number the top and put $5.7M in play, for $6M +/- .3M.

 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

399

3221

12.39%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

320

2542

12.59%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1780	232	27969	6.36%	13	150

 

0.855	The Flash T-1	8.30M
0.382	AtSV T-1	6.64M
0.346	Guardians 3 T-1	6.05M

0.622

Eternals T-1

5.91M

The Marvels Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

465

3221

14.44%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

382

2542

15.03%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2287	507	27969	8.18%	13	150

 

0.742	The Flash T-0	7.19M
0.345	AtSV T-0	5.99M
0.335	Guardians 3 T-0	5.87M

0.514

Eternals T-0

4.88M

 

The Eternals comps are gonna look worse than they really are because previews started at 6. Plus, they need to be adjusted for ATP increases anyway. Gonna adjust the Eternals comps up 20%, and weigh Drafthouse less because it is overperforming. The average I get after that is 6.44M. I'll go with it

[keysersoze123]

16 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

The Marvels MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 92900/783347 1778477.62 4256 shows +11737

Previews are at 113110/789174 2116695.20 4297 shows. Its pacing exactly as what I expected. Nothing crazy one way or other. Its looking 7m previews just looking at this data. 

[Relevation]

So based on the general drift I’m seeing, we should expect around $6-7M Thurs and a $36-49M OW?

[Kon]

13 minutes ago, Relevation said:

So based on the general drift I’m seeing, we should expect around $6-7M Thurs and a $36-49M OW?

We can just hope it's closer to 49M.

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
174	660	31936	2.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

10

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-13

 

(1.378x) of Elemental $3.31M Previews *Not adjusted for ATP discount Tuesday* 

 

*Saturday EA* separate from previews 

211 seats sold over 10 showings 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
176	693	32461	2.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

33

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-12

 

(1.361x) of Elemental $3.27M Previews *Not adjusted for ATP discount Tuesday* 

 

*Saturday EA* separate from previews 

210 seats sold over 10 showings 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

GODZILLA MINUS ONE

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
33	118	6654	1.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

8

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-22

 

(0.330x) of Exorcist $941k Previews

Comps AVG: $941k

 

EA sales *separate from Thursdays previews listed above*

314 seats sold over 20 showings 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

GODZILLA MINUS ONE

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
33	123	6654	1.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-21

 

(0.326x) of Exorcist $930k Previews

Comps AVG: $930k

 

EA sales *separate from Thursdays previews listed above*

332 seats sold over 20 showings 

[M37]

34 minutes ago, Relevation said:

So based on the general drift I’m seeing, we should expect around $6-7M Thurs

Yes, in the upper half IMO

 

34 minutes ago, Relevation said:

and a $36-49M OW?

That low end seems too low. Pace, walk-ups, and Friday sales are all decent (relatively speaking), reviews aren't on AMWQ level, and sales pattern by day is nowhere near say Flash to suggest a 6x IM.  Can't say for sure sub-$40M isn't happening, but I have a difficult time reasonably working the math based on data in hand to project it there, barring some kinda of terrible TFri or WOM crash

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
173	371	31572	1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

21

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(0.637x) of Elemental $1.53M Previews

COMPS AVG: $1.53M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
173	376	31572	1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(0.598x) of Elemental $1.43M Previews

COMPS AVG: $1.43M

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THANKSGIVING

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
123	151	20993	0.72%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(0.248x) of Exorcist $644K Previews

(0.273x) of KoTFM $709K Previews

Comps AVG: $676k

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THANKSGIVING

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
123	153	20993	0.73%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(0.234x) of Exorcist $666K Previews

(0.264x) of KoTFM $686K Previews

Comps AVG: $676k

[HummingLemon496]

My guess is 6.8^2 for a $46.24M OW 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

NAPOLEON

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
147	281	28317	0.99%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

46

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-13

 

(0.576x) of KoTFM $1.50M Previews *ATP not adjusted for discount Tuesday* 

(0.247x) of Mi7 $1.73M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

NAPOLEON

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
156	306	30092	1.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

25

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

9

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-12

 

(0.605x) of KoTFM $1.57M Previews *ATP not adjusted for discount Tuesday* 

(0.279x) of Mi7 $1.96M

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE HUNGER GAMES: THE BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS AND SNAKES

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
182	1581	34982	4.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

94

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(0.928x) of Fast X $6.96M Previews

(0.510x) of FNAF $5.25M Previews

(0.562x) of The Flash $5.45M Previews

Comps AVG: $5.89M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE HUNGER GAMES: THE BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS AND SNAKES

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
182	1641	34982	4.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

60

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(0.315x) of Barbie $6.65M Previews

(0.501x) of FNAF $5.16M Previews

(0.558x) of The Flash $5.41M Previews

Comps AVG: $5.74M

 

Replaced Fast X with Barbie @M37

[misterpepp]

Wonka on sale Nov 15

 

@Eric Danvers

[Eric S'ennui]

2 minutes ago, misterpepp said:

Wonka on sale Nov 15

 

@Eric Danvers

Day 1.

[HummingLemon496]

13 minutes ago, misterpepp said:

Wonka on sale Nov 15

 

@Eric Danvers

So Aquaman on sale Nov 22 

[rehpyc]

A little late, but The Marvels T-1

 

Quantumania: 4.46M

GoTG3: 4.98M

Shang-Chi: 5.75M

AtSV: 5.78M

Thor L&T: 4.91M

Eternals: 5.51M

Flash: 5.97M

 

Obviously, just not seeing 6M+ here, but with others' data, could very much just be under indexing vs. the norm for MCU/CBM.

 

Edit: Looks at T-0 sales.. so far walk-ups are doing pretty decent, compared to its low advance sales volume. Okay, I can get on board with 6.25M+ if things continue decently through the night.

Edited November 10, 2023 by rehpyc