The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[titanic2187]

19 minutes ago, vafrow said:

On another note, in light of the critic response on Wish, I went to look up what the last time (outside of 2020), where no film released in Q4 crossed $200M domestic, and it was 2008. The time before that was 1998.

 

We're really in some interesting times right now.

Sometimes people are annoyed by Cjohn style of doomposting, but one can't deny the reality often align to his/her description of the situation.

 

[YachtyLogs]

23 hours ago, YachtyLogs said:

WONKA 

1/1245

 

New sold: 1

New showtimes: 9

Total showtimes: 9

 

No comps as this is my first track. Starting small time, maybe I'll add more theaters for future tracks. Anyway, small start. 

WONKA

T-27

Small SE Wisconsin Sample

 

1/1245 - (0.08%)

 

New sold: 0

New showtimes: 0

Total showtimes: 9

Seats added: 0

Total sellouts: 0

 

No sales today. When I track Aquaman and Migration, I'll add at least one other theater in the area for further variety. 

[MovieMan89]

Reupping my “doomsday holiday box office scenario” from last month when I said the November worst case wouldn’t even surprise me. Now keep in mind, these were worst case scenarios, meaning these movies were hated rather than just mid like most of them seem to be.
 

But yeah, not exactly far off. Also keep in mind, I’m not actually predicting that at all for Wonka next month, just a “worst case” thing. 

[MovieMan89]

Also, I think THG may end up our best chance for a 100 DOM grosser this month, and it’s not even a sure thing at all. 

[abracadabra1998]

On 11/15/2023 at 5:30 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (T-1):

 

Average: $5.66 Million

 

Decent final day and week, as expected better than FNAF and Marvels but worse than Barbie. PLF numbers ended up pretty similarly to the Marvels as well. No final numbers from me tomorrow sadly. I see no reason to go away from the average, let's go with a final prediction of $5.7 Million, +/- 0.2

 

 

On 11/15/2023 at 5:38 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Trolls: Band Together (T-1):

 

To @keysersoze123's point about MTC1 underindexing, seeing the exact same here (for ex. Wish in my last update is about 50% MTC1). This is having a meh final week, my comps are bad but I would go with $1.5-1.75 Million sans EA based on them. And I was on the over 2 million train before the final week.

 

On 11/15/2023 at 5:46 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Thanksgiving (T-1):

 

Average notwithstanding, this had a horrible final week for original horror. Maybe it will have outstanding walk-ups, but I doubt it. Show capacity is also super limited. This seems to be overperforming here so I'll call it at $1 Million, +/- 0.2.

 

 

I'll take two out of three! Not surprised I was so off on Trolls, my comps were trash. Thanksgiving was interesting because the comp average was high (1.6 in the end) but its pace was way worse than any other horror comp I had, so that'll be good in the future. On to Wish and Napoleon!

 

[TheFlatLannister]

Did the $2M from trolls also include EA?

Edited November 17, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[Bob Train]

Just now, TheFlatLannister said:

Any Thanksgiving numbers?

Also did the $2M from trolls also include EA?

$1m for Thanksgiving

Trolls $1.3m excluding EA

[Hilts]

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

Wish							OK
Saturday - 4pm - Early Access Screening						ATP	$10.08
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-6	6	6	8	60	813	7.38%	15.38%
T-5	6	6	4	64	813	7.87%	6.67%
T-4	6	6	13	77	813	9.47%	20.31%
T-3	6	6	9	86	813	10.58%	11.69%
T-2	6	6	26	112	813	13.78%	30.23%
MTC1	2	2	+12	53	230	23.04%	29.27%
MTC2	2	2	+10	18	224	8.04%	125.00%
MTC3	2	2	+4	41	359	11.42%	10.81%

 

Tuesday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$11.59**
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-9	24	102	3	88	14,888	0.59%	3.53%
T-8	24	104	10	98	15,088	0.65%	11.36%
T-7	24	103	12	110	14,951	0.74%	12.24%
T-6	24	107	9	119	15,516	0.77%	8.18%
T-5	24	108	47	166	15,688	1.06%	39.50%
MTC1	7	32	+8	78	4,535	1.72%	11.43%
MTC2	4	23	+30	47	3,687	1.27%	176.47%
MTC3	3	15	+2	9	2,762	0.33%	28.57%
Other	10	38	+7	32	4,704	0.68%	28.00%
Comps						Raw	ATP adj*
Haunted Mansion				0.838x	=	$2.60m	$1.95m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: MM				0.675x	=	$2.60m
Trolls Band Together				1.145x

 

*75%

**only considers Discount Tue across some (not all) theatres and so is largely irrelevant and incalculable.

 

Matinee: 33.33%

3D: 24.31%

 

Very good day, look at MTC2 growth. Pretty sure there was a big group purchase in there.

 

Wish							OK
Saturday - 4pm - Early Access Screening						ATP	$10.23
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-5	6	6	4	64	813	7.87%	6.67%
T-4	6	6	13	77	813	9.47%	20.31%
T-3	6	6	9	86	813	10.58%	11.69%
T-2	6	6	26	112	813	13.78%	30.23%
T-1	6	6	27	139	813	17.10%	24.11%
MTC1	2	2	+4	57	230	24.78%	7.55%
MTC2	2	2	+6	24	224	10.71%	33.33%
MTC3	2	2	+17	58	359	16.16%	41.46%

 

Tuesday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$11.17**
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-8	24	104	10	98	15,088	0.65%	11.36%
T-7	24	103	12	110	14,951	0.74%	12.24%
T-6	24	107	9	119	15,516	0.77%	8.18%
T-5	24	108	47	166	15,688	1.06%	39.50%
T-4	24	108	20	186	15,688	1.19%	12.05%
MTC1	7	32	+8	86	4,535	1.90%	10.26%
MTC2	4	23	0	47	3,687	1.27%	0.00%
MTC3	3	15	+12	21	2,762	0.76%	133.33%
Other	10	38	0	32	4,704	0.68%	0.00%
Comps						Raw	ATP adj*
Haunted Mansion				0.802x	=	$2.49m	$1.86m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: MM				0.648x	=	$2.50m
Trolls Band Together				1.185x	=	$1.54m

 

*75%

**only considers Discount Tue across some (not all) theatres and so is largely irrelevant and incalculable.

 

Matinee: 36.02%

3D: 18.82%

 

Forgot to add the group purchase (it was for a standard showing) into the splits yesterday which is why 3D split has taken a hit today.

 

EA is at 27% of Trolls at T-1 and Trolls EA growth was 41% that day.

 

I will try to pull a Wednesday number again tomorrow to see if that indicates much more progress.

[Hilts]

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

Napoleon							OK
Tuesday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$13.85*
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-9	19	56	25	166	9,976	1.66%	17.73%
T-8	19	56	41	207	9,976	2.07%	24.70%
T-7	19	56	23	230	9,976	2.31%	11.11%
T-6	19	59	29	259	10,828	2.39%	12.61%
T-5	19	62	25	284	10,990	2.58%	9.65%
MTC1	8	25	+9	99	4,621	2.14%	10.00%
MTC2	3	9	+4	28	1,187	2.36%	16.67%
MTC3	3	16	+7	107	3,814	2.81%	7.00%
Other	5	12	+5	50	1,368	3.65%	11.11%
Comps
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.463x	=	$3.24m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.154x	=	$4.44m
Oppenheimer					0.143x	=	$1.50m
The Creator					2.202x	=	$2.97m

 

**only considers Discount Tue across some (not all) theatres and so is largely irrelevant and incalculable.

 

Matinee: 16.55%

PLF: 35.21%

 

Slowed down a little but still trundling along with an okay amount sold per day.

 

Napoleon							OK
Tuesday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$14.03*
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-8	19	56	41	207	9,976	2.07%	24.70%
T-7	19	56	23	230	9,976	2.31%	11.11%
T-6	19	59	29	259	10,828	2.39%	12.61%
T-5	19	62	25	284	10,990	2.58%	9.65%
T-4	19	65	61	345	11,677	2.95%	21.48%
MTC1	8	25	+29	128	4,621	2.77%	29.29%
MTC2	3	12	+4	32	1,874	1.71%	14.29%
MTC3	3	16	+22	129	3,814	3.38%	20.56%
Other	5	12	+6	56	1,368	4.09%	12.00%
Comps
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.485x	=	$3.40m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.202x	=	$4.63m
Oppenheimer					0.157x	=	$1.65m
The Creator					2.396x	=	$3.23m

 

*only considers Discount Tue across some (not all) theatres and so is largely irrelevant and incalculable.

 

Matinee: 15.65%

PLF: 37.97%

 

Good day. PLF share slowly rising as I've noticed this is gaining more IMAX/Dolby showings the last few days.

[Hilts]

Saltburn							OK
Tuesday - showings starting 2pm						ATP	$10.27*
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-8	6	20	-1	10	2,475	0.40%	-9.09%
T-7	6	20	6	16	2,475	0.65%	60.00%
T-6	6	20	10	26	2,536	1.03%	62.50%
T-5	7	25	5	31	3,148	0.98%	19.23%
T-4	7	25	10	41	3,148	1.30%	32.26%
MTC1	2	7	+4	23	667	3.45%	21.05%
MTC2	2	7	+2	10	612	1.63%	25.00%
MTC3	2	8	+4	5	1,272	0.39%	400.00%
Other	1	3	0	3	597	0.50%	0.00%
Comps
Asteroid City					0.369x	=	$0.41m
Talk To Me					0.788x	=	$0.98m
The Last Voyage of the Demeter					1.000x	=	$0.75m
A Haunting In Venice					0.333x	=	$0.40m
Priscilla					1.139x	=	$0.51m

 

*only considers Discount Tue across some (not all) theatres and so is largely irrelevant and incalculable.

 

Matinee: 17.07%

 

These aren't adjusted for ATP. Horror comps thrown in just due to similar pre-sale window lengths.

 

Would estimate sub-$500k at the moment.

Edited November 17, 2023 by Hilts

[Hilts]

On 11/16/2023 at 7:12 PM, Hilts said:

 

Wonka							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$14.73

 

Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-28	21	97	49	49	20,434	0.24%

 

MTC1	8	32	+34	34	6,612	0.51%
MTC2	4	12	+6	6	2,074	0.29%
MTC3	3	32	+3	3	7,573	0.04%
Other	6	21	+6	6	4,175	0.14%

 

Day 1 Comps
Barbie					0.093x	=	$2.07m
Haunted Mansion					0.817x	=	$2.53m
Five Nights At Freddy's					0.251x	=	$2.59m

 

Matinee: 2.04%

PLF: 42.86%

 

Just picked out a few where pre-sales started around a month out. Don't read too much into it as gut feel is this will be back-loaded.

 

Wonka							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$15.16
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-28	21	97	49	49	20,434	0.24%	-
T-27	21	97	29	78	20,434	0.38%	59.18%

 

MTC1	8	32	+18	52	6,612	0.79%	52.94%
MTC2	4	12	+4	10	2,074	0.48%	66.67%
MTC3	3	32	+2	5	7,573	0.07%	66.67%
Other	6	21	+5	11	4,175	0.26%	83.33%
Comps
Barbie					0.116x	=	$2.57m
Haunted Mansion					1.114x	=	$3.45m
Trolls Band Together					2.889x	=	$3.76m

 

Matinee: 3.85%

PLF: 47.44%

 

Switched to T-X comps now. Decent day things looking alright. Reserving those PLF seats early...

[misterpepp]

American Fiction on sale Dec 1 (EA on sale Nov 24)
Ferrari on sale Nov 21
The Iron Claw on sale Dec 1 (EA on sale Nov 21)
Poor Things on sale Nov 20
 

Enjoy the weekend 

[HummingLemon496]

@TheFlatLannister what would be some good comps for when you start tracking Aquaman? I'd recommend ATSV personally 

[Grand Cine]

21 minutes ago, misterpepp said:

American Fiction on sale Dec 1 (EA on sale Nov 24)
Ferrari on sale Nov 21
The Iron Claw on sale Dec 1 (EA on sale Nov 21)
Poor Things on sale Nov 20
 

Enjoy the weekend 

I'm curious about Poor Things , last year the movies pro-oscar have fallen at box office . Maybe a Emma Stone effect

[Relevation]

11 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

@TheFlatLannister what would be some good comps for when you start tracking Aquaman? I'd recommend ATSV personally 

Did we not have 3 DC movies this year that would be perfectly apt comps instead 

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

@TheFlatLannister what would be some good comps for when you start tracking Aquaman? I'd recommend ATSV personally 

 

AtSV?  Probably not as animation + Not DCU + Holidays makes it a somewhat different type of beast.  Or rather it's an interesting comp, but it ain't gonna be my anchor comp.

 

The Flash is the best, most recent one I think.  Since I happen to have it, I'll also probably be pulling in Black Adam.  Maybe a couple of other non-MCU GA flicks.

 

...

 

HOPEFULLY I won't need to use my Shazam 2 numbers! 

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Did we not have 3 DC movies this year that would be perfectly apt comps instead 

Pretty much.  Problem is, Shazam 2 had almost zero sales to start with.  And I mean, terribad start.  

 

I don't start many Five Alarm Fires here, but when I hinted at the super super early sales for Shazam 2 out of Sacramento, I think I can safely say I lit the match on that one!

 

Blue Beetle?  Never bothered to track that one so I personally can't comment on it, but I tend to think if Aqua 2 plays similiarly to either Shazam 2 or Blue Beetle it'll be very apparent in early tracking as comps between those two films and The Flash will be very different.

Edited November 17, 2023 by Porthos

[M37]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

 

 

Score one for The Matrix. 👍

Funny thing is, the midpoint on the forecast matrix I put out the other day was actually $5.75 - I just have it all set to  round to one decimal (Do think I'll be a bit low on IM though and miss dead center)

 

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC under indexed huge. Not just MTC1(which did not hit 100K as @M37 put above). MTC2 I was able to pull in late yesterday was just at 61544/308662 794611.34 2423 shows. I think Canada is the reason why this went so high . 

I'm not sure I would say huge on the underinex.  HG:BoSS did become only the fourth film I have to go over $60/tix for PSM ($60.7 to be precise) - following Indy 5, TGM, and JWD - but also was only a hair above Barbie (if you remove the Blow-Out Party and just look look at Thursday, $59.7/tix).

What do these films have in common? They were all in some manner steps removed from your typical metro and/or younger male leaning draws, overpreforming at suburban if not more rural areas, and/or skewed older or towards women. For contrast, Marvels was exactly the opposite, and like 65% men and mostly in cities, and over-indexed (at sub $50/tix PSM. The relative ratio of HG:BoSS and Marvels in the OK tracking market specifically was why I expecting that type skew, though over $60/tix was more than I would have been willing to project

 

The more infrequent the movie-goer, the less likely they are to be subscribers and even have a preference for a specific MTC, rather than just selecting whatever is closest to home

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, Bob Train said:

$1m for Thanksgiving

Trolls $1.3m excluding EA

Thx

I was off on Thanksgiving, but right on the dot for Trolls

 

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THANKSGIVING

(0.318x) of Exorcist $906K Previews

(0.648x) of Haunting at Venice $777K Previews

Comps AVG: $842k

 

Really strong final day

I'll say $850k +/- $100k

On 11/16/2023 at 2:19 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

Trolls: Band Together 

 

(0.518x) of Elemental $1.24M Previews

COMPS AVG: $1.24M

[TheFlatLannister]

26 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

@TheFlatLannister what would be some good comps for when you start tracking Aquaman? I'd recommend ATSV personally 

I'll probably throw every CBM i have during my post and see what works. Flash might be the best comp I have

 

As @Porthos said Shazam 2 start was bad