The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Ezen Baklattan]

1 hour ago, Flip said:

yup, review bump I'm guessing + naturally good walkups for a rom com

I’ve noticed it here as well. The preview show I went to on Wednesday had decent WOM too.

[abracadabra1998]

On 12/18/2023 at 6:32 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Christmas Day:

 

The Color Purple (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	91	818	2310	10634	21.72

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		116	38	5.02
MTC1:		987	362	42.73
Marcus:		326	123	14.11
Alamo:		213	51	9.22
Other chains:		784	282	33.94

 

Thursday Comps:

7.73x Wonka: $27.04 Million

4.3x Killers of the Flower Moon: $11.18 Million

1.85x FNAF: $19.1 Million

0.8x Barbie (THU): $16.89 Million

 

Unadjusted Average: $18.55 Million; Adjusted* Average: $12.43 Million

*Adjusted down %33

 

Unadjusted Comps:

11.97x Wish (TUE): $21.54 Million

8.49x Napoleon (TUE): $25.48 Million

2.57x MI7 (TUE): $17.99 Million

4.7x Paw Patrol (FRI OD): $31.99 Million

 

Average: $24.25 Million

 

I don't know man, it's all a bit silly really.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Christmas Day:

 

The Color Purple (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	130	973	3283	14689	22.35

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		530	414	16.14
MTC1:		1360	373	41.43
Marcus:		437	111	13.31
Alamo:		246	33	7.49
Other chains:		1240	456	37.77

 

Comps:

3.12x Hunger Games BoSS (THU): $17.93 Million

0.5x Barbenheimer (THU): $15.7 Million

12.63x Wish (TUE): $22.73 Million

8.09x Napoleon (TUE): $24.26 Million

2.42x MI7 (TUE): $16.97 Million

3.78x Paw Patrol (FRI OD): $25.69 Million

 

Average: $20.55 Million

 

Using the Thursday comps @M37 mentioned, plus a few of those Tuesday ones that might require less of an adjustment, from now on. Notable increase in PLFs and it continuing to underindex further at MTC1 versus other blockbusters

[Porthos]

15 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Sacramento Report [T-1]

1674/19908 (8.41% sold) [+406 tickets] 146 showtimes

 

1.25540x TSS at T-1                  [5.78m] (adj for ATP differences since 2021)
0.53456x Black Adam at T-1     [4.03m]
1.57717x Shazam 2 at T-1          [5.32m]
0.23966x AtSV at T-1                [4.13m]
0.46613x The Flash at T-1        [4.49m]
1.47895x Blue Beetle at T-1      [4.85m]

 

====

 

Sacramento has to be over-performing coz if I didn't know better, I'd say this was converging on 4.5m locally.  That seems hella optimistic though, so let's stick with a target range of 4m to 4.25m before we get to day-of pre-sales. 

 

Either way, comps ain't going down locally, even with the initial social media reactions out there.

 

 

Quick and Dirty Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Sacramento Report [T-0] [FINAL] [3:50pm - 4:15pm]

*NOTE:  All showtimes that started before 3:50pm were sampled at the start of their showing.

2629/20096 (13.08% sold) [+955 tickets] 149 showtimes

 

1.11777x TSS at T-0                     [5.18m] (adj for ATP differences since 2021)
0.58500x Black Adam at T-0     [4.45m]
1.58088x Shazam 2 at T-0         [5.37m]
0.26981x AtSV at T-0                 [4.68m]
0.49352x The Flash at T-0        [4.79m]
1.43504x Blue Beetle at T-0     [4.74m]

 

====

 

I've always said that Sacramento is the DC capital of the world!

 

NARRATOR:  In fact Porthos had never uttered that sentence before.

 

Okay, all kidding aside, not only did it blow past 4.25m locally as a comp, if i just looked at Sacramento in isolation, it'd be pointing to something like 4.75m or thereabouts.   Reviews didn't matter at all.  Or if they did, not enough to deter walkups.

 

And it's not just isolated to one theater, either, as it's pretty strong in a fairly decent amount of places.

 

Still, I know that Sacto is over-performing on a DC flick for once, but as folks know by now I detest herding.  And every once in a while, my anti-herding stance pays off.  But I will go ahead and use Black Adam as my anchor as opposed to Blue Beetle and say 4.5m +/- .4m.

 

...

 

Maybe folks locally are treating this as a wake for the DCU?  Yeah, I gots nothing.  Just did well here is all I can say.  Well, relatively speaking.

[abracadabra1998]

1 hour ago, crazymoviekid said:

Anyone else having Anyone But You explode by them today?  Mine are rivaling Ticket to Paradise, Crawdads, and No Hard Feelings.

 

If MSP is anything to go by, its pace for this last week was really really good. It was the same with Migration, which has led me to believe they will be having solid walk-ups

[TheFlatLannister]

59 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Migration also is having good walkups. Thinking 1.3m+ at this point. 

Quick question, how do you track walkups? Do you scrap every hour? 

[M37]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Sacramento Report [T-0] [FINAL] [3:50pm - 4:15pm]

*NOTE:  All showtimes that started before 3:50pm were sampled at the start of their showing.

2629/20096 (13.08% sold) [+955 tickets] 149 showtimes

 

1.11777x TSS at T-0                     [5.18m] (adj for ATP differences since 2021)
0.58500x Black Adam at T-0     [4.45m]
1.58088x Shazam 2 at T-0         [5.37m]
0.26981x AtSV at T-0                 [4.68m]
0.49352x The Flash at T-0        [4.79m]
1.43504x Blue Beetle at T-0     [4.74m]

 

====

 

I've always said that Sacramento is the DC capital of the world!

 

NARRATOR:  In fact Porthos had never uttered that sentence before.

 

Okay, all kidding aside, not only did it blow past 4.25m locally as a comp, if i just looked at Sacramento in isolation, it'd be pointing to something like 4.75m or thereabouts.   Reviews didn't matter at all.  Or if they did, not enough to deter walkups.

 

And it's not just isolated to one theater, either, as it's pretty strong in a fairly decent amount of places.

 

Still, I know that Sacto is over-performing on a DC flick for once, but as folks know by now I detest herding.  And every once in a while, my anti-herding stance pays off.  But I will go ahead and use Black Adam as my anchor as opposed to Blue Beetle and say 4.5m +/- .4m.

 

...

 

Maybe folks locally are treating this as a wake for the DCU?  Yeah, I gots nothing.  Just did well here is all I can say.  Well, relatively speaking.

It could be as simple as a generally older-male skewing market lacks - and has for a while - alternatives: Aquabro or bust! That it’s playing more as a generic action film than a true DC/CBM 

[dallas]

16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Sacramento Report [T-0] [FINAL] [3:50pm - 4:15pm]

*NOTE:  All showtimes that started before 3:50pm were sampled at the start of their showing.

2629/20096 (13.08% sold) [+955 tickets] 149 showtimes

 

1.11777x TSS at T-0                     [5.18m] (adj for ATP differences since 2021)
0.58500x Black Adam at T-0     [4.45m]
1.58088x Shazam 2 at T-0         [5.37m]
0.26981x AtSV at T-0                 [4.68m]
0.49352x The Flash at T-0        [4.79m]
1.43504x Blue Beetle at T-0     [4.74m]

 

====

 

I've always said that Sacramento is the DC capital of the world!

 

NARRATOR:  In fact Porthos had never uttered that sentence before.

 

Okay, all kidding aside, not only did it blow past 4.25m locally as a comp, if i just looked at Sacramento in isolation, it'd be pointing to something like 4.75m or thereabouts.   Reviews didn't matter at all.  Or if they did, not enough to deter walkups.

 

And it's not just isolated to one theater, either, as it's pretty strong in a fairly decent amount of places.

 

Still, I know that Sacto is over-performing on a DC flick for once, but as folks know by now I detest herding.  And every once in a while, my anti-herding stance pays off.  But I will go ahead and use Black Adam as my anchor as opposed to Blue Beetle and say 4.5m +/- .4m.

 

...

 

Maybe folks locally are treating this as a wake for the DCU?  Yeah, I gots nothing.  Just did well here is all I can say.  Well, relatively speaking.

Put me back in for $4M previews. I know, probably premature. But hey, what do I lose by being optimistic? 

[Porthos]

16 minutes ago, M37 said:

It could be as simple as a generally older-male skewing market lacks - and has for a while - alternatives: Aquabro or bust! That it’s playing more as a generic action film than a true DC/CBM 

 

Plausible!  FWIW, something like RotB spits out 4.65m. And Fast X gives 4.78m, so there's only so much one can do.

 

Sometimes markets just do better than others,  Maybe being a Pacific Coast state with a decent mount of Asian Americans helped at the very very very edges (James Wan).  I'd be tempted to cite Winter Break, except as I glance about only one or two of the local school districts are out today.

 

Sometimes things just happen!  

 

FWIW, Sacramento has probably been the most robust market for this film from all of the local trackers, at least from what I can see.  So it having a strong finish isn't too surprising.  Ironic, considering I was the one to start the five alarm fire about three hours into pre-sales, but life does like to have its little ironies.

Edited December 22, 2023 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

I definitely think 4.5m is in play. Whether that happens depends on West Coast walkups :-)

 

I wonder if @rehpyc will have an update from his end. He was on the point last week.

Edited December 22, 2023 by keysersoze123

[dallas]

I remember when presales were worse than Shazam 2. Now we're discussing $4.5M previews lol. Obviously still a bomb, but it's fun to track nonetheless. 

[Super]

16 minutes ago, dallas said:

I remember when presales were worse than Shazam 2. Now we're discussing $4.5M previews lol. Obviously still a bomb, but it's fun to track nonetheless. 

Maybe a Christmas miracle happens and it doesn’t bomb? 🥴

[dallas]

Just now, Super said:

Maybe a Christmas miracle happens and it doesn’t bomb? 🥴

That indeed would be a miracle, considering it's break even is ~$500M. 

[Cmasterclay]

Weekend might be looking....not terrible? Migration, Aquaman, and Anyone But You all performing well around me (and in this thread).

[dallas]

Just checked on Friday sales for Aquaman and it's looking pretty good. It appears the bad reviews aren't affecting this as much as expected. Interested to see how this does overall. 

[emoviefan]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Weekend might be looking....not terrible? Migration, Aquaman, and Anyone But You all performing well around me (and in this thread).

It's like people are going on their holiday breaks and realizing -oh yeah movie theaters exist. 

[Porthos]

51 minutes ago, dallas said:

I remember when presales were worse than Shazam 2. Now we're discussing $4.5M previews lol. Obviously still a bomb, but it's fun to track nonetheless. 

 

Well, they were never worse in Sacramento. 😉 

 

(just because I didn't post daily updates didn't mean I wasn't tracking it on my home sheet on the side)

 

===

 

All joking aside, folks like myself and @M37 were spitballing "4m to 5m" on the very first day of pre-sales so if it does get around 4.3 to 4.6 or so, then it'll just be winding back up to where some of us thought it would be all along.  Just took a bit of a circuitous route to get there.

 

*IF* it gets there.  Strong if considering how weak it is in some markets.

[dallas]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Well, they were never worse in Sacramento. 😉 

 

(just because I didn't post daily updates didn't mean I wasn't tracking it on my home sheet on the side)

 

===

 

All joking aside, folks like myself and @M37 were spitballing "4m to 5m" on the very first day of pre-sales so if it does get around 4.3 to 4.6 or so, then it'll just be winding back up to where some of us thought it would be all along.  Just took a bit of a circuitous route to get there.

 

*IF* it gets there.  Strong if considering how weak it is in some markets.

If it can climb to $4.6M that would mean a $25-27M opening, which gives a very strong possibility of a $100M final or even higher. But that's optimistic. At the moment I have $3.8-4M previews/$22-24M weekend penciled in. $90M final seems a good guess atm too. 

[dallas]

14 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

It's like people are going on their holiday breaks and realizing -oh yeah movie theaters exist. 

Yep. Which is why these strong walkups shouldn't be too surprising. 

[CaptainJackSparrow]

2 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

If Illumnation actually scores a strong opening with this non-IP animated film they literally left to die, they are totally unstoppable 

Left to die? Was Universal not confident in the movie?

[Borobudur]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Migration also is having good walkups. Thinking 1.3m+ at this point. 

I actually need this to happen to prove that original animation still works. I mean, Trolls 3 and Wish already losing so many screen to make way for the holiday, Migration need to pick up the audience then to make their scarify "worthy"