The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[leoh]

11 minutes ago, Shawn Robbins said:

 

I'd caution against using Oppenheimer as a direct line comp for Dune 2. Two very different circumstances. And I wouldn't consider $75M/~$200M domestic "conservative". That would be a terrific result, and honestly above where the data suggests it will go at the moment.

I agree, as much as I love Dune I’m aware it doesn’t have any huge appeal among general audiences to go over 200M in the USA.

 

But I think it will get a bigger box office, nowhere close to Oppenheimer but I’d say it can do Wonka’s numbers ww. Around 550M to 600M ww (considering that it has a big appeal in Europe but not that much in other major markets like Japan, China, Brazil and Mexico.

[Shawn Robbins]

15 minutes ago, leoh said:

I agree, as much as I love Dune I’m aware it doesn’t have any huge appeal among general audiences to go over 200M in the USA.

 

But I think it will get a bigger box office, nowhere close to Oppenheimer but I’d say it can do Wonka’s numbers ww. Around 550M to 600M ww (considering that it has a big appeal in Europe but not that much in other major markets like Japan, China, Brazil and Mexico.

Agreed. Those would be great results in the current global market, and plenty enough to greenlight Dune 3.

 

I can agree there's upside to go higher and that $50m seems low, but that gets into assumption territory rather than relying on confident models. That's why these ranges are always snapshots with reasonably projected trends, not final forecasts. (And I have to keep repeating this, but the low-end is not the actual pinpoint forecast... just a realistic worst case scenario that exhibitors and clients should keep in mind for now.)

 

We can see if trends diverge from the expected path in a few weeks. For now, it's behaving very much like the first Dune in pre-sales. If I had to make a gut guess, I could see the range ticking up to 60s-80s+ (and legs to follow) with social media pushes from the young stars, but that's just my independent guess until/unless it actually happens.

 

I'd give a polite nudge to everyone not reading the published analysis around the numbers we provide to BOP to check that out and help further understand the context. But it would be irresponsible of me not to include perceived high or low numbers that I might not personally agree with.

[iEnri]

1 hour ago, leoh said:

I think Box Office Pro (125M to 195M) may be considering the competition Dune will have. March is packed with major releases.

 

In It’s second week Dune will have to face King Fu Panda (which is a quite popular franchise among adults as well). In the 3rd week, Mark Wahlberg‘s Arthur the King. In the 4th week there’s Ghostbusters. And in the 5th Dune will have to face Godzilla X Kong.

 

I guess this is the reason why Box Office Pro is not projecting big legs for Dune, and so not a higher celling for Dune as well. 

I would 550M is the floor for Dune. And Dune Part 1 faced muuch stronger competition with Venom and No Time to Die while being on HBO Max, Kung Fu and Dune barely share any demographic.

Edited February 2 by iEnri

[keysersoze123]

26 minutes ago, M37 said:

 

Well that's a dreadful PSM from MTC1 data, only $44/tix - way below even Marvels at $49/tix -  which means this is only playing well in big metros (unless there were weather or other impacts I'm not aware of)

 

Keyser, if you have it handy, what was The Creator final sales for previews? [Though IIRC that may have had EA shows too]

The Creator MTC1

Early Shows - 8239/27222 170639.69 1033 shows

Previews - 34322/232703 628273.30 1244 shows

 

I dont think they included the early shows in the previews. Last year many movies clubbed the early BO to Friday BO instead. Otherwise its even worse than Argylle. 

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

18 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Chosen, Season 4, Eps 1-3 (T-1):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	29	108	709	2685	26.41

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		315	243	44.43
Marcus:		168	141	23.7
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		226	148	31.88

 

 

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	N/A
3-Day:	33.27

Comps (3-day growth rates in parentheses):

4.76x The Shift: $1.77 Million (23%)

2.86x After Death: $1.14 Million (45%)

8.86x Journey to Bethlehem: $2.21 Million (110%)

 

Average: $1.71 Million

 

These numbers are from yesterday, I just didn't have time to post them. Thinking around $1.5 Million for Thursday, though capacity issues at some theaters (most just have 2 or even 1 showings) might make that a lil lower. This really isn't the market for this kind of movie though, so shooting darts a bit. Let's go with $1.5 Million, +/- 0.25.

 

(@Jerri Blank-Diggler)

Good prediction on The Chosen, @abracadabra1998 ("Let's go with $1.5 Million, +/- 0.25.")  Its Thursday number is $1.4 M according to Deadline. 

 

Deadline seems to be treating this as a preview number, though Fathom had stated Thursday as opening day. With The Chosen S 3 Finale last February that also opened on Thursday, Thursday earnings did not get included in weekend totals. S 3 Finale did $1.7 M previews and $3.6 M FSS weekend in 1731 theaters. Deadline says the new S 4 eps 1-3 opened yesterday in 2236 theaters. That almost 3.5 hour run-time has to be making for a lot fewer overall showtimes per theater (and making it harder for Chosen's demographic to hit any showing that starts later than 8 pm).

 

https://deadline.com/2024/02/box-office-argylle-1235812281/

Apple Original Films’ ‘Argylle’ Sees $1.7M In Thursday Previews; ‘The Chosen’ $1.4M – Box Office

 

Edited February 2 by Jerri Blank-Diggler

[JustLurking]

1 hour ago, Shawn Robbins said:

 

I'd caution against using Oppenheimer as a direct line comp for Dune 2. Two very different circumstances. And I wouldn't consider $75M/~$200M domestic "conservative". That would be a terrific result, and honestly above where the data suggests it will go at the moment.

Could you give your reasoning as to why 200M would be an overperformance provided that Dune does open to 75M? Just a 2.7 multiplier would make it happen, which doesn't exactly seem like too much an ask to me. Your projections giving its best case scenario for legs at that opening a mere 2.5x puzzle me to be honest.

Edited February 2 by JustLurking

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Shawn Robbins said:

Based on what?

 

Replied to the wrong message (even though it could still apply), but re: in bold... What makes you think it isn't already?

 

Well, then gotta get a more optimistic crowd:).  It's gonna rule IMAX for a month, and while you think it's just "fantasy fans" (who will pay Avatar 2/Oppy premium which already helps sky box office) - its cast is a big draw for 19+, who will all have holiday breaks, and it's a film opening into a prior 3 week wasteland at the box office.

 

Ignoring the Feb 14 openers, which have gotten a lot of discussion, here's the rest of Feb openers going in to "Dune time"...

2/9 Lisa Frankenstein - female skewing

2/16 - nothing (just Feb 14 openers) - which are both (trying to be) female skewing

2/23 - Drive Away Dolls - female skewing, Ordinary Angels - female skewing, Demon Slayer Part I don't know - anime

 

And what's opening against Dune - some Chosen episodes - female skewing.

 

So, where are the gentlemen 13-45, who will come out in force for their product, going to go in Feb for a movie?  We've seen them prop Beekeeper b/c there's nothing better.  What do you think they'll do for Dune - it may not be their ideal movie, but it will at least appeal enough in a barren wasteland for them...

 

It's odd to have a barren wasteland for male 13-45 movies, but early 2024 has been (and see Aquaman 2's legs and Beekeeper to see what happens when it is)...

 

So, yeah, better crowd source - add AT LEAST $25M to your Dune total DOM floor and $30-50M for the ceiling and screw the numbers:)...

[abracadabra1998]

52 minutes ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:

Good prediction on The Chosen, @abracadabra1998 ("Let's go with $1.5 Million, +/- 0.25.")  Its Thursday number is $1.4 M according to Deadline. 

 

Deadline seems to be treating this as a preview number, though Fathom had stated Thursday as opening day. With The Chosen S 3 Finale last February that also opened on Thursday, Thursday earnings did not get included in weekend totals. S 3 Finale did $1.7 M previews and $3.6 M FSS weekend in 1731 theaters. Deadline says the new S 4 eps 1-3 opened yesterday in 2236 theaters. That almost 3.5 hour run-time has to be making for a lot fewer overall showtimes per theater (and making it harder for Chosen's demographic to hit any showing that starts later than 8 pm).

 

https://deadline.com/2024/02/box-office-argylle-1235812281/

Apple Original Films’ ‘Argylle’ Sees $1.7M In Thursday Previews; ‘The Chosen’ $1.4M – Box Office

 

Not so bad with my Argylle prediction too, needed a couple of Ws after a tough start to 2024 😌

[vafrow]

If I had to make a prediction on Dune based on those inital tracking days, I probably would be guessing higher, just based on how strongly it came out of the gate. It felt big. But we've been down this road before where something hits so aggressively to start that it's easy to get sucked in. That's why we have the data models to guide.

 

You can see the cracks. Growth is slow, and the IMAX skew points to playing to the core.

 

I'm still optimistic on this, but for qualitative reasons, not quantitative.

 

It's got a lot of elements that can let it catch some late momentum. The cast has star power. We're in a big calendar lull and people are probably eager to jump on board a trend.

 

I also think this next month is going to have a lot of focus on Nolan and Oppenheimer, as he marches towards his overdue Oscar win. And I think people being reminded that it was fun to get behind a big movie and see it on the big screen helps the argument here.

 

But, we need to see these trends play out and convert to actual sales or engagement. That's what this thread is. We'll see if the numbers ramp up as we get closer or not.

[Shawn Robbins]

1 hour ago, JustLurking said:

Could you give your reasoning as to why 200M would be an overperformance provided that Dune does open to 75M? Just a 2.7 multiplier would make it happen, which doesn't exactly seem like too much an ask to me. Your projections giving its best case scenario for legs at that opening a mere 2.5x puzzle me to be honest.

 

Sure, there are a few elements to approaching that.

 

For starters, the list of sequels to nearly double their domestic gross after their predecessor earned less than a 3x multiplier is incredibly short. So that's a basis for comparison.

 

The major caveat here, as we know, is that Dune was a hybrid release mid-pandemic, so it's also safe to bake in the possibility that it could have achieved a 3x+ under normal circumstances and that its sequel will benefit further from the goodwill. We also know casual audience attendance is more robust now than it was in October 2021, so that's another element to potentially work in favor of either opening weekend, staying power, or both.

 

The current projection of a 2.7x multiplier on the high end tries to account for a high-performing weekend that ends up more likely to lead to front-loading in case of fan-driven rush and/or the possibility that word of mouth isn't strong enough to help it follow the path of other sequels that managed 3x+.

 

With that in mind, it opens up numerous scenarios where the actual opening within that range could indeed lead to a higher multiplier.

 

For example, if it opens to $65m and legs out to $190m, that ends up being a 2.92x -- higher than Dune 1 in terms of OW, total, and legs across the board, reflective of strong reception outside fans, and reasonably similar to something like that of (arbitrary comp here) the John Wick franchise which has consistently had great legs with each sequel.

 

Could the best case scenario end up being higher than $75M+/$195M+? Of course, and the model will (try to) adjust for that if more data, sales included, point to it. But as franchises go, they are usually their own best indicators... not always, but usually. So the question then becomes, "what are the best comparisons to Dune 2 besides Dune 1?" That's a big fill-in-the-blank that can be subjective.

 

All that said... it's also generally more responsible to err on the side of caution when there's any doubt on either end of the spectrum, IMHO. That's the philosophy I've seen more success with and reflective of most of the feedback I usually receive from clients and exhibitors. Consistently being too bullish is even less valuable than being consistently too bearish, and since neither are ideal, the goal in my approach is to (again, try to) find a goldilocks zone that has as much utility as possible (developing a baseline, essentially, rather than never knowing how to frame projections).

 

Obviously this all is underscored by the understanding, after nearly 25 years doing this, that finding that goldilocks zone before it's too late to matter isn't going to happen 100% of the time, but it usually does.

[whatsupdoc]

THE QUORUM

6-WEEK OUT FILM TRACKING REPORT

 

Opening weekend forecast are for Friday-Sunday period ONLY. 

 

ARGYLLE: $13M - $16M (down from last week)

LISA FRANKENSTEIN: $6M - $8M (flat)

BOB MARLEY: ONE LOVE: $20M - $23M (flat)

MADAME WEB: $20M - $25M (flat)

DRIVE AWAY DOLLS: $3M - $5M (down)

ORDINARY ANGELS: $6M - $9M (flat)

DUNE: PART TWO: $50M - $57M (up)

KUNG FU PANDA: $50M - $57M (up)

IMAGINARY: $16M - $19M (down)

ARTHUR THE KING: $13M - $16M (NEW)

LOVE LIES BLEEDING: $2M - $4M (NEW)

 

SEE FULL REPORT HERE: https://thequorum.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/6WOFTR-02.02.24.pdf

 

[Wotad]

3 hours ago, leoh said:

I agree, as much as I love Dune I’m aware it doesn’t have any huge appeal among general audiences to go over 200M in the USA.

 

But I think it will get a bigger box office, nowhere close to Oppenheimer but I’d say it can do Wonka’s numbers ww. Around 550M to 600M ww (considering that it has a big appeal in Europe but not that much in other major markets like Japan, China, Brazil and Mexico.

Chances are if it opens near 70m its going to do 200m..  Im hoping it does 600m+ 

 

1 hour ago, Shawn Robbins said:

 

 

 

For example, if it opens to $65m and legs out to $190m, that ends up being a 2.92x -- higher than Dune 1 in terms of OW, total, and legs across the board, reflective of strong reception outside fans, and reasonably similar to something like that of (arbitrary comp here) the John Wick franchise which has consistently had great legs with each sequel.

 

 

I think it will have more action which would help its legs and the promo blitz has not started yet, which I think would give a much better picture. 

 

Oppenheimer is only a real comparison in the sense it was heavily more popular on IMAX etc.. 

 

I still dont think think it hitting 200m would be a over performance at all when chances are its going to get close to that number or beat. 

[Shawn Robbins]

31 minutes ago, Wotad said:

Chances are if it opens near 70m its going to do 200m..  Im hoping it does 600m+ 

 

I think it will have more action which would help its legs and the promo blitz has not started yet, which I think would give a much better picture. 

 

Oppenheimer is only a real comparison in the sense it was heavily more popular on IMAX etc.. 

 

I still dont think think it hitting 200m would be a over performance at all when chances are its going to get close to that number or beat. 

Yeah, I understand why Oppy is in the convo here because of the PLF dominance. I just worry that sets too high of an expectation because Oppy didn't have the natural frontloaded aspect of a fan-driven sequel *and* also had the Barbenheimer aura to boost appeal among casuals. Those are two momentum variables that Dune 2 doesn't have.

 

It's also probably a result of the fact that not many of the current ticket counters in this thread were pulling data for Dune 1, so it's not available as a comp for the markets that you all have come to rely on (for good reason) in comparing sales.

 

That being said, I was a proponent for years before the pandemic that Dune could/would be the next big franchise. So I definitely empathize with the hope that this sequel does overperform for whatever reason.

[keysersoze123]

Looking at Drafthouse data, Dune seems way stronger than even Oppenheimer and that makes it promising,. Drafthouse is not driving by Imax/PLF. So I am confident closer to release Dune's non PLF numbers will improve. Oppenheimer skewed Imax/70mm until close to release as well. 

 

Dune being an sci-fi action movie is actually easier sell than 3 hour talking drama that Oppenheimer is. That said Chris Nolan is way bigger than DV and Barbenheimer effect made it a must watch for younger audience. Dune will not have that. But Market is dead leading to Dune's release and that will be a huge plus for it. Especially if its a critical rave as I am expecting. 

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

3 hours ago, Shawn Robbins said:

 

Sure, there are a few elements to approaching that.

 

For starters, the list of sequels to nearly double their domestic gross after their predecessor earned less than a 3x multiplier is incredibly short. So that's a basis for comparison.

 

The major caveat here, as we know, is that Dune was a hybrid release mid-pandemic, so it's also safe to bake in the possibility that it could have achieved a 3x+ under normal circumstances and that its sequel will benefit further from the goodwill. We also know casual audience attendance is more robust now than it was in October 2021, so that's another element to potentially work in favor of either opening weekend, staying power, or both.

 

The current projection of a 2.7x multiplier on the high end tries to account for a high-performing weekend that ends up more likely to lead to front-loading in case of fan-driven rush and/or the possibility that word of mouth isn't strong enough to help it follow the path of other sequels that managed 3x+.

 

With that in mind, it opens up numerous scenarios where the actual opening within that range could indeed lead to a higher multiplier.

 

For example, if it opens to $65m and legs out to $190m, that ends up being a 2.92x -- higher than Dune 1 in terms of OW, total, and legs across the board, reflective of strong reception outside fans, and reasonably similar to something like that of (arbitrary comp here) the John Wick franchise which has consistently had great legs with each sequel.

 

Could the best case scenario end up being higher than $75M+/$195M+? Of course, and the model will (try to) adjust for that if more data, sales included, point to it. But as franchises go, they are usually their own best indicators... not always, but usually. So the question then becomes, "what are the best comparisons to Dune 2 besides Dune 1?" That's a big fill-in-the-blank that can be subjective.

 

All that said... it's also generally more responsible to err on the side of caution when there's any doubt on either end of the spectrum, IMHO. That's the philosophy I've seen more success with and reflective of most of the feedback I usually receive from clients and exhibitors. Consistently being too bullish is even less valuable than being consistently too bearish, and since neither are ideal, the goal in my approach is to (again, try to) find a goldilocks zone that has as much utility as possible (developing a baseline, essentially, rather than never knowing how to frame projections).

 

Obviously this all is underscored by the understanding, after nearly 25 years doing this, that finding that goldilocks zone before it's too late to matter isn't going to happen 100% of the time, but it usually does.

 

You know I only tend to post with your name when I think you're off...and notice how little I tend to post direct to you:).  You do a bang up job setting the long range box office predictions.  

 

Edit to Add: And I know I've mentioned the lack of male 13-45 material.  But another thing to note - Dune 2 seems like it will be strong with 55+ male and female (I'm seeing unexpected internet interest there).  And unlike for Dune 1, this group has also decided theaters are okay now.

 

If Dune draws 13-75, that's a LOT of potential people.  I mention Oppy b/c I think Oppy's box office is ultimately possible for Dune 2 (and that would be my current ceiling, but again who knows:).  But I know that most tracking is an opening weekend look at best, and not a full box office look.  I just think March is set up so well for this movie to be THE event after the Super Bowl ends.  And we know, once you're the event, you are the thing folks go see, even if they aren't really in the interested group...

 

I just wouldn't sleep on it. 

Edited February 2 by TwoMisfits

[Tinalera]

8 hours ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:

Box Office: ‘Argylle’ Makes $1.7 Million in Previews (Variety)

https://variety.com/2024/film/box-office/box-office-argylle-previews-1235892130/

Have to wonder where it came apart here. The trailer I saw as a teaser back in 23 showed a neat idea. Cavill I thought would drive some sales, but wow. 

[vafrow]

On 2/2/2024 at 6:27 AM, vafrow said:

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-28 Thursday previews and T-24 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 209

New Sales: 36

Growth: 21%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 11.6

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 5/2

Early Evening: 153/9

Late Evening: 51/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 43/7

IMAX: 129/4

VIP: 33/5

4dx: 4/2

 

EA shows

 

335 tickets across 2 showings

 

Growth all comes from one of the IMAX screenings, and likely a big group sale. It's pushed that growth up.

 

Otherwise, not much to report.

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-27 Thursday previews and T-23 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 229

New Sales: 20

Growth: 9.6%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 11.6

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 5/2

Early Evening: 173/9

Late Evening: 51/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 46/7

IMAX: 138/4

VIP: 42/5

4dx: 4/2

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 340

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 5

Growth: 1.5%

 

A good growth day for previews. Not as much for the EA. 

 

[vafrow]

On 2/2/2024 at 6:38 AM, vafrow said:

 

Madame Web, western GTA (southern Ontario), Opening Day, T-14 (D3)

 

Previews

Total Sales: 45

New Sales: 7

Growth: 18%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.5

Thursday Sales: 19

Friday Sales: 23

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 0/1

Late Afternoon: 7/2

Early Evening: 32/6

Late Evening: 6/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 19/5

IMAX: 26/7

VIP: 0/1

 

T-13 Comps

2.045x Aquaman 2 for $9.2M

0.469x HG:BoSS for $2.7M

0.129x of The Marvels for $0.9M

Avg: $4.3M

 

Comps changed to T minus, so it's thrown numbers off. Aquaman was on D1 for this point, so that comp will come down to earth in the days ahead. Marvels was added, but very different groeth curves for the two, and I expect that you'll see that number rise steadily each day. Marvels was doing about 3-4% growth each day after it's early plateau until the final week.

 

Thursday and Friday sales went up in slightly higher proportion than Wednesday. Take that for what its worth.

 

Madame Web, western GTA (southern Ontario), Opening Day, T-13

 

Previews

Total Sales: 59

New Sales: 14

Growth: 31%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 4.5

Thursday Sales: 22

Friday Sales: 30

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 2/1

Late Afternoon: 7/2

Early Evening: 38/6

Late Evening: 12/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 24/5

IMAX: 33/7

VIP: 2/1

 

T-13 Comps

2.034x Aquaman 2 for $9.1M

0.500x HG:BoSS for $2.9M

0.165x of The Marvels for $1.1M

Avg: $4.4M

 

Good growth. It's averaged 35% daily growth since it started. I'm not sure how long it can keep it up, but staying above double digits at this stage is going to see it improve against comps.

 

[leoh]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

 

Madame Web, western GTA (southern Ontario), Opening Day, T-13

 

Previews

Total Sales: 59

New Sales: 14

Growth: 31%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 4.5

Thursday Sales: 22

Friday Sales: 30

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 2/1

Late Afternoon: 7/2

Early Evening: 38/6

Late Evening: 12/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 24/5

IMAX: 33/7

VIP: 2/1

 

T-13 Comps

2.034x Aquaman 2 for $9.1M

0.500x HG:BoSS for $2.9M

0.165x of The Marvels for $1.1M

Avg: $4.4M

 

Good growth. It's averaged 35% daily growth since it started. I'm not sure how long it can keep it up, but staying above double digits at this stage is going to see it improve against comps.

 

 

Interesting. This Madame Web decent/good growth matches what’s happening in AMC NY theaters and also matches Florida numbers @TheFlatLannister is tracking.

 

I think it may have to do with a stronger marketing campaign this week. This week it’s trending on social networks with new posters, TV spots etc. During the NFL conference draw (which had around 60M viewers this week) I saw a couple of Madame Web TV Spots, what’s a bit supervising given that they are some of the most expensive ones in American TV.

Edited February 3 by leoh

[vafrow]

17 minutes ago, leoh said:

 

Interesting. This Madame Web decent/good growth matches what’s happening in AMC NY theaters and also matches Florida numbers @TheFlatLannister is tracking.

 

I think it may have to do with a stronger marketing this week. This week it’s trending on social networks with new banners/TV spots. During the NFL conference draw (which had around 60 viewers this week) I saw a couple of Madame Web TV Spots, what’s a bit supervising given that they are some of the most expensive ones in American TV.

 

I haven't followed the other markets too closely, but it's worth indicating that my market usually has softer starts and higher growth. Flat Lannisters numbers for example are usually difficult to compare as it's the opposite.

 

Still, it is good growth, and ad campaigns could be a part of it.

 

It's also important to remember that this is still an opening day versus Thursday previews as comps. A Thursday preview usually targets die hards that want to see the movie right away. This is probably grabbing more casual viewers that are just trying to lock in Valentine's Day plans. One of the benefits of a manual track is that I can see that ticket buying is happening heavily in pairings.

 

It's also why I can see sales having a strong kick near the end. Madame Web is probably more in the back up tier of V-Day plans when people realize the good restaurants are booked up.