The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[emoviefan]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC1 Friday(2/16)

Madame Web - 5288/575728 87983.40 2677 shows

Bob Marley - 3348/308975 48539.78 1875 shows

 

2+ day later, pace is putrid for friday for both movies. 

 

Are theaters even going to make it to March 1st?. Only sort of joking. 

[PrinceRico]

2 hours ago, Eric Argylle said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-dune-part-two/

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2024’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 2/1/24)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Distributor
2/9/2024	Lisa Frankenstein	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000	$18,000,000 – $39,000,000	Focus Features
2/9/2024	Out of Darkness			Bleecker Street
2/9/2024	Turning Red			Disney / Pixar
2/14/2024	Bob Marley: One Love	$15,000,000 – $20,000,000	$47,000,000 – $86,000,000	Paramount Pictures
2/14/2024	Madame Web	$20,000,000 – $29,000,000	$56,000,000 – $95,000,000	Sony / Columbia Pictures
2/15/2024	The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 4 – 6	$3,000,000 – $7,000,000	$4,500,000 – $11,000,000	Fathom Events
2/23/2024	Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training	$14,000,000 – $23,000,000	$25,000,000 – $51,000,000	Sony Pictures / Crunchyroll
2/23/2024	Drive-Away Dolls			Focus Features
2/23/2024	Ordinary Angels	$9,000,000 – $14,000,000	$27,000,000 – $46,000,000	Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company
2/23/2024	Tenet (2024 Re-Issue)			Warner Bros. Pictures
2/29/2024	The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 7 – 8			Angel Studios
3/1/2024	Dune: Part Two	$50,000,000 – $75,000,000	$125,000,000 – $195,000,000	Warner Bros. Pictures

This seems realistic. Fans of the first will love it but I don't see general audience caring. Didn't people joke about the first being coma inducing. 

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, Eric Argylle said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-dune-part-two/

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2024’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 2/1/24)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Distributor
2/9/2024	Lisa Frankenstein	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000	$18,000,000 – $39,000,000	Focus Features
2/9/2024	Out of Darkness			Bleecker Street
2/9/2024	Turning Red			Disney / Pixar
2/14/2024	Bob Marley: One Love	$15,000,000 – $20,000,000	$47,000,000 – $86,000,000	Paramount Pictures
2/14/2024	Madame Web	$20,000,000 – $29,000,000	$56,000,000 – $95,000,000	Sony / Columbia Pictures
2/15/2024	The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 4 – 6	$3,000,000 – $7,000,000	$4,500,000 – $11,000,000	Fathom Events
2/23/2024	Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training	$14,000,000 – $23,000,000	$25,000,000 – $51,000,000	Sony Pictures / Crunchyroll
2/23/2024	Drive-Away Dolls			Focus Features
2/23/2024	Ordinary Angels	$9,000,000 – $14,000,000	$27,000,000 – $46,000,000	Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company
2/23/2024	Tenet (2024 Re-Issue)			Warner Bros. Pictures
2/29/2024	The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 7 – 8			Angel Studios
3/1/2024	Dune: Part Two	$50,000,000 – $75,000,000	$125,000,000 – $195,000,000	Warner Bros. Pictures

That Madame Web gotta be most off predict in long time I feel. 

[charlie Jatinder]

54 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC1 Friday(2/16)

Madame Web - 5288/575728 87983.40 2677 shows

Bob Marley - 3348/308975 48539.78 1875 shows

 

2+ day later, pace is putrid for friday for both movies. 

 

I think since they have a BIG day in the start, rest of day will remain low. That's kind of how big holiday on first day sales work and VD is generally pre-sales heavy. That said, Bob Marley being that low is just awful.

[abracadabra1998]

On 1/28/2024 at 10:32 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Dune Part 2 (T-32):

Day: T-32, T-28	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	74	390	893	14285	6.25
Sunday Feb 25 EA: 4 theaters	4	67	548	1082	50.65
TOTALS:	78	457	1441	15367	9.38

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		826	453	92.5
MTC1:		509	302	57
Marcus:		107	31	11.98
Alamo:		157	104	17.58
Other chains:		120	66	13.44

(Only Thursday preview sales accounted for in chart)

 

Just Thursday Comp:

1.06x Oppy: $11.14 Million

 

EA Comp:

1.27x Barbie EA: $1.4 Million

 

To provide some more context, I widened the theaters I tracked back in the summer, at Oppy T-25, so until then I am only comparing like for like theaters (and not including EA for Dune). I will be able to provide a fuller, more accurate picture of how this is doing in the region then. As for EA, Barbie was also in a limited number of screenings (6 in the region), but at T-0 it was at 98% capacity. I am intrigued to see how close Dune comes to that.

 

Having said all that, very very solid two days since my last update!

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Dune Part 2 (T-28):

Day: T-28, T-24	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	76	222	1115	14835	7.52
Sunday Feb 25 EA: 4 theaters	4	27	575	1082	53.14
TOTALS:	80	249	1690	15917	10.62

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		1021	195	91.57
MTC1:		604	95	54.17
Marcus:		139	32	12.47
Alamo:		189	32	16.95
Other chains:		183	63	16.41

(Only Thursday preview sales accounted for in chart)

 

Thursday Comp:

1.2x Oppy: $12.58 Million*

 

*Like-for-like comp which only includes 12 theaters, no Marcus or Alamo (full comp at T-25)

 

EA Comp:

0.87x Barbie EA: $960k

 

Still kicking it!

[abracadabra1998]

On 1/28/2024 at 10:10 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

Lisa Frankenstein (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	32	13	30	4530	0.66

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		2	2	6.67
MTC1:		13	9	43.33
Marcus:		2	2	6.67
Alamo:		11	3	36.67
Other chains:		4	0	13.33

 

Comps:

0.625x Thanksgiving: $625k

0.18x Haunted Mansion: $545k

 

Average: $585k

 

More comps to come.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Lisa Frankenstein (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	36	22	52	5021	1.04

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		2	0	3.85
MTC1:		19	6	36.54
Marcus:		2	0	3.85
Alamo:		13	2	25
Other chains:		18	14	34.62

 

Some funky business going on in one of the Emagine theaters I track, all 14 new tickets in the"other" column come from there, and they're mostly single tickets from one screening. Seems legit for now but I'll keep an eye on it.

 

Comps:

0.85x Thanksgiving: $850k

0.22x Haunted Mansion: $670k

0.35x Exorcist Believer: $1 Million

 

Average: $840k

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Argylle is straight up imploding...

 

Walkups are pacing worse than Night Swim and the comp is not at $1.7M!

Final count from Miami

 

	Night swim	Argylle
	Seats sold	Seats sold
10:00 PM	245	87
9:00 PM	334	238
8:00 PM	343	554
7:00 PM	759	731
6:00 PM	764	869
5:00 PM
Total	2445	2479

 

 

Collapsed during the late night 

Edited February 2 by TheFlatLannister

[leoh]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC1 Friday(2/16)

Madame Web - 5288/575728 87983.40 2677 shows

Bob Marley - 3348/308975 48539.78 1875 shows

 

2+ day later, pace is putrid for friday for both movies. 

 

wow so OL seems way more front loaded in MTC1 then, considering what it’s sold on VDay. OL has on Friday like 25% of what it’s sold for VDay. It’s shocking 

 

Edited February 2 by leoh

[ando]

Dune Part 2

Day 7 Toronto Scotiabank Theatre (IMAX Sales only)

 

2204 total (+258 in past 3 days [Day 5- 83/Day 6- 111/Day 7- 64])

 

Thu- 506     Fri- 557      Sat- 647      Sun- 494

 

Feb 25 EA- 391/408

 

 

 

[keysersoze123]

21 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Argylle MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 25151/334028 472561.73 1676 shows +3716

Friday - 25759/652957 455110.81 3267 shows +5188

 

Its DOA at this point. I would be happy with 15m OW at this point. Could miss 2m previews as well. 

Argylle MTC1

Previews Final - 38448/334281 691626.42 1680 shows +13697

Friday - 34461/652696 597493.71 3270 shows +8702

 

I think previews should be close to 2m based on this but could fall slightly short(1.9m ish). Thinking low teens now for OW :-( 

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Madame Web - 9693/530781 164497.71 2505 shows +2038

Bob Marley - 13340/281136 197073.98 1778 shows +4523

 

I might have been too harsh on Marley. I had assumed the sales had been there for a while. Based on @abracadabra1998 it started late(may be on the same day). Pace over past 2 days for both movies kind of confirm that. Marley will win VD for sure. That said we have to see how rest of the weekend goes. I will see if Friday also has improved similar to VD.

 

MW pace is terrible and so I would keep expectations low for it. 

MTC1 Valentine's day(T-13)

Madame Web - 10945/531510 185539.59 2510 shows +1252

Bob Marley - 15976/281519 235203.36 1784 shows +2636

 

Marley's pace this far back is quite good and even Madame Web has gone up a bit over past day. Not sure what is the catalyst as I expected the pace to go down for both. 

[dallas]

 

 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

3 minutes ago, dallas said:

 

 

A $200M movie opening this low and maybe not even making it to the double digits would be insane. Could this be the biggest bomb of all time?

[HummingLemon496]

4 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

A $200M movie opening this low and maybe not even making it to the double digits would be insane. Could this be the biggest bomb of all time?

It's an Apple film so is doesn't count as a bomb? Idk maybe that's what I've heard

[leoh]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC1 Valentine's day(T-13)

Madame Web - 10945/531510 185539.59 2510 shows +1252

Bob Marley - 15976/281519 235203.36 1784 shows +2636

 

Marley's pace this far back is quite good and even Madame Web has gone up a bit over past day. Not sure what is the catalyst as I expected the pace to go down for both. 

Wow this means that in MTC1 on Friday OL is tracking to get less than 25% than what it will get on VDay, I’m even more  shocked

 

 

 

 

Edited February 2 by leoh

[WorkingonaName]

52 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Could this be the biggest bomb of all time?

7th biggest bomb of all time in the span of a year. 

[HummingLemon496]

Just now, WorkingonaName said:

7th biggest bomb of all time in the span of a year. 

Flash, Indy, Marvels, Wish, this. What's the other two?

[misterpepp]

52 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

A $200M movie opening this low and maybe not even making it to the double digits would be insane. Could this be the biggest bomb of all time?

 

Think Tenet still holds the record for lowest 3-day wide domestic opening for a $200m+ budgeted production at $9.3m, though obviously that comes with a huge asterisk. This should be second-lowest?

[Grand Cine]

 

1 hour ago, misterpepp said:

 

Think Tenet still holds the record for lowest 3-day wide domestic opening for a $200m+ budgeted production at $9.3m, though obviously that comes with a huge asterisk. This should be second-lowest?

 

Yes it should be the second lowest debut for a 200M+ production because the second lowest , at this point is Wish with 19,7M

[Alexander]

6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

That Madame Web gotta be most off predict in long time I feel. 

Yeah, I thought MW is looking like 6-6.5 wed+thu and 12-15 fri+sat+sun lol.