The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

I went back to look at what Barbie sold for EA in southern Ontario.

 

It only had 11 showings in a 150 km radius, which covered the bulk of this region (and probably about 30% of rhe Canadian market). Seating was averaging about 90-100 VIP seats.

 

Just eyeballing the EA IMAX showings on Dune, it's already exceeded that for the area in seats sold, likely at least double. I can't easily see the same range anymore though. There's more room to grow as well.

 

This doesn't account for IMAX pricing either.

 

Canadian market isn't the best proxy, but, if this is mirrored at all in the States, we may want to pencil in a higher EA amount.

[excel1]

Reviews will play a big role here. Mid $60s seem like a solid floor but if it gets raves, it could get $90m+,

[charlie Jatinder]

BTW would suggest y'all to not include EA sales for Dune in comps. Yeah I was probably one who first recommended to add EA sales in previews for comps but that is when EA is 1 or 2 days before actual previews. Here its in previous week, 4 days before actual previews. That's 

1. Skewing comps for full 4 days for a large chunk of sales. Take Sacramento for example, of 1.7K total sales, 600 are T-19 while 1000+ are T-23. 
2. Too far out of actual preview to do big burn in previews sales, also just 1 show in most locs but would be very presales heavy.

Edited February 7 by charlie Jatinder

[dallas]

6 hours ago, M37 said:

I’m still more on ~$70M for now, but $80 is certainly in play 

If it has an IM of 8 then $80M is more likely. 

[keysersoze123]

9 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

BTW would suggest y'all to not include EA sales for Dune in comps. Yeah I was probably one who first recommended to add EA sales in previews for comps but that is when EA is 1 or 2 days before actual previews. Here its in previous week, 4 days before actual previews. That's 

1. Skewing comps for full 4 days for a large chunk of sales. Take Sacramento for example, of 1.7K total sales, 600 are T-19 while 1000+ are T-23. 
2. Too far out of actual preview to do big burn in previews sales, also just 1 show in most locs but would be very presales heavy.

I disagree. Early sales are non trivial and takes away from previews. After all only incentive to go on a thursday non summer weekday is from early enthusiasts who like to see it opening day. Otherwise why would anyone go at 3PM when schools are on and people are at work. 

Edited February 8 by keysersoze123

[vafrow]

For the record, I'm in between the two positions on EA shows here. But, I also don't have any comps at all, so it doesn't make too much of a difference for me.

 

I generally am in the Keyser camp. Die hards will seek out the earliest showing. Many of those would roll into a Thursday preview if EA was not available.

 

But, having a single Sunday evening showtime is a much more palatable option for a lot of people who may not be able to make it out on a weeknight for a longer movie. There are lots of people that will pick the EA as it's far more convenient. You're not rushing home from work for an early showtime. Nor do you need to stay up late and catch the late show.

 

This feels like this straddles the line. 

[Eric Lasagna]

Quorum Updates

Drive-Away Dolls T-16: 16.79%

Dune: Part Two T-23: 53.55%

Love Lies Bleeding T-37: 17.97%

The Fall Guy T-86: 30.32%

Despicable Me 4 T-147: 49.02%

Project Artemis T-156: 11.7%

Harold and the Purple Crayon T-177: 12.04%

 

Lisa Frankenstein T-2: 37.84% Awareness

Final Awareness: 38% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 23% chance of 10M

 

Cabrini T-30: 17.78% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 12% chance of 10M

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 T-30: 59.51% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 94% chance of 30M, 87% chance of 40M, 69% chance of 50M, 62% chance of 60M, 56% chance of 70M, 37% chance of 100M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 50% chance of 70M

[jeffthehat]

MALCO 

 

Dune: Part Two T-22

 

TC	SHOWS	SALES	SEATS
25	54	563	9684

 

Comp

1.12x The Marvels T-22 (10 theaters) = $7.38m

[Youngstar]

idk if this fits in this thread, but Moana 2

[jeffthehat]

22 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

INDIANA

 

Lisa Frankenstein T-2

 

TC	Seats sold	Seats	Shows
24	108	6778	53

 

Sales are around a third of Argylle T-2, +16 tickets sold since T-4

 

 

INDIANA

Coverage: 30 theaters

 

Lisa Frankenstein T-1

 

TC	Seats sold	Seats	Shows	Growth
26	132	6992	57	+22%

 

Comp

0.29x Argylle T-1 = $493k

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/6/2024 at 3:48 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
821	8	1353	60.68%

 

Thursday Previews:

AMC Westminster 24

Total

385

1794

21.46%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

319

1388

22.98%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1518	43	18464	8.22%	13	89

 

0.827

Guardians T-23

14.48M

0.472

Thor L&T T-23

13.69M

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
833	12	1353	61.57%

 

Thursday Previews:

AMC Westminster 24

Total

401

1794

22.35%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

339

1388

24.42%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1584	66	18464	8.58%	13	89

 

0.456

Thor L&T T-22

13.24M

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/6/2024 at 3:50 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-23 Thursday

164 Showings

6499

+199

24781

ATP:

18.66

0.866

Guardians T-23

15.16M

0.754

Thor L&T T-23

21.86M

 

T-24 Friday

246 Showings

7197

+178

36904

ATP:

18.08

1.306

Guardians T-24

39.95M

1.206

Thor L&T T-24

48.91M

 

T-25 Saturday

261 Showings

8695

+296

39076

ATP:

17.51

1.393

Guardians T-25

54.16M

1.682

Thor L&T T-25

70.82M

 

T-26 Sunday

238 Showings

4871

+214

35376

ATP:

17.73

1.635

Guardians T-26

51.39M

1.946

Thor L&T T-26

63.25M

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-22 Thursday

171 Showings

6696

+197

25483

ATP:

18.64

0.723

Thor L&T T-22

20.97M

 

T-23 Friday

246 Showings

7429

+232

36904

ATP:

18.04

1.139

Thor L&T T-23

46.18M

 

T-24 Saturday

261 Showings

8934

+239

39076

ATP:

17.49

1.530

Thor L&T T-24

64.42M

 

T-25 Sunday

238 Showings

5093

+222

35376

ATP:

17.66

1.838

Thor L&T T-25

59.73M

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/6/2024 at 3:50 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-23 Thursday

104 Showings

756

+19

17566

 

T-24 Friday

162 Showings

859

+54

27660

 

T-25 Saturday

168 Showings

812

+58

28816

 

T-26 Sunday

162 Showings

213

+10

27940

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-22 Thursday

104 Showings

797

+41

17566

 

T-23 Friday

162 Showings

902

+43

27660

 

T-24 Saturday

168 Showings

846

+34

28816

 

T-25 Sunday

162 Showings

227

+14

27940

[abracadabra1998]

On 1/31/2024 at 10:03 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Valentine's Day:

 

Madame Web (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	99	35	110	18024	0.61

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		85	60	77.27
MTC1:		73	60	66.36
Marcus:		11	3	10
Alamo:		8	2	7.27
Other chains:		18	10	16.36

 

Comps:

0.43x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $1.93 Million

0.57x Wonka: $2 Million

0.45x BoSS: $2.59 Million

0.58x Mean Girls: $1.87 Million

 

Average: $2.1 Million

 

All of these comps bar BoSS had much longer windows, so the comp values aren't super helpful at this point and should not be taken as representative of where sales actually are. Not a great two days since Day 1 though

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Valentine's Day:

 

Madame Web (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	115	235	345	20603	1.67

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		232	147	67.25
MTC1:		189	116	54.78
Marcus:		66	55	19.13
Alamo:		30	22	8.7
Other chains:		60	42	17.39

 

Comps:

1x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $4.53 Million

1.15x Wonka: $4.04 Million

0.48x BoSS: $2.76 Million

1.81x Blue Beetle: $5.96 Million

 

Average: $4.32 Million

 

Been real busy in my personal life so wasn't able to do my usual mid-week update, so the "new seats" column is over 7 days. Very solid week all in all, shaping up for a decent Valentine's Day

 

[abracadabra1998]

On 1/31/2024 at 10:10 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Valentine's Day:

 

Bob Marley: One Love (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	63	211	330	9240	3.57

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		107	59	32.42
MTC1:		100	88	30.3
Marcus:		64	31	19.39
Alamo:		53	38	16.06
Other chains:		113	54	34.24

 

Comps:

0.3x The Color Purple: $4.63 Million

0.98x KoFM: $2.55 Million

2.89x The Creator (THU): $3.91 Million

 

Average: $3.7 Million

 

Ummm what the fuck? I knew MTC1 would bounce back a bit since it came into sale late compared to other chains (pretty shocked at Key's bad updates, really thought it would show that too), but was not expecting this at all. Maybe a sign of good things to come, or maybe just one of those random MSP overperformances a la Boys on the Boat

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Valentine's Day:

 

Bob Marley: One Love (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	86	532	862	12346	6.98

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		325	218	37.7
MTC1:		305	205	35.38
Marcus:		172	108	19.95
Alamo:		95	42	11.02
Other chains:		290	177	33.64

 

Comps:

0.37x The Color Purple: $5.75 Million

1.61x KoFM: $4.17 Million

4.87x The Creator (THU): $6.57 Million

 

Average: $5.5 Million

 

This feels like TCP 2.0, some crazy high pre-sale numbers out of nowhere. This is looking really good for Valentine's Day, and they just added a bunch of Dolby screens at MTC1, so I expect the PLF share to keep rising as well.

[abracadabra1998]

On 2/5/2024 at 6:14 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Lisa Frankenstein (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	36	12	87	5021	1.73

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		4	0	4.6
MTC1:		35	7	40.23
Marcus:		4	0	4.6
Alamo:		21	2	24.14
Other chains:		27	3	31.03

 

Comps:

0.84x Thanksgiving: $845k

0.37x Exorcist Believer: $1.06 Million

1.26x Last Voyage of Demeter: $945k

0.65x Talk To Me: $810k

 

Average: $915k

 

Took away the Haunted Mansion comp, never did much make sense anyway. Next update at T-1, I will have a The Invitation comp then which is the most direct one one would think. For now thinking 0.75-1 million previews bar a spectacular finish

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Lisa Frankenstein (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	46	37	124	6105	2.03

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		6	2	4.84
MTC1:		58	23	46.77
Marcus:		6	2	4.84
Alamo:		30	9	24.19
Other chains:		30	3	24.19

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	N/A
3-Day:	65.33

 

Comps (3-day growth rates in parentheses):

0.7x Thanksgiving: $695k (89%)

0.37x Exorcist Believer: $1.05 Million (73%)

0.9x Last Voyage of Demeter: $675k (130%)

0.4x Talk To Me: $500k (145%)

1.2x The Invitation: $930k

 

Average: $770k

 

Pretty terrible last couple of days sadly, The Invitation comp gives me a little bit of optimism but gonna put my final prediction at $0.8 Million, +/- 0.2.

[jeffthehat]

On 2/6/2024 at 5:27 PM, jeffthehat said:

 

Indiana Valentine's Day T-8

 

MOVIE	TC	SALES	SEATS	SHOWS	GROWTH
Bob Marley	24	1110	14313	96	+28.3%
Madame Web	24	592	24112	128	+29.0%

 

Indiana Valentine's Day T-7

 

MOVIE	TC	SALES	SEATS	SHOWS	GROWTH
Bob Marley	24	1217	15428	96	+9.6%
Madame Web	24	634	24112	128	+7.1%

 

Thursday T-8

 

MOVIE	TC	SALES	SEATS	SHOWS
Bob Marley	24	214	15779	97
Madame Web	24	258	18937	98

 

Marley's doing great here on V-day. Not so much after 

Edited February 8 by jeffthehat

[leoh]

31 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Valentine's Day:

 

Madame Web (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	115	235	345	20603	1.67

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		232	147	67.25
MTC1:		189	116	54.78
Marcus:		66	55	19.13
Alamo:		30	22	8.7
Other chains:		60	42	17.39

 

Comps:

1x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $4.53 Million

1.15x Wonka: $4.04 Million

0.48x BoSS: $2.76 Million

1.81x Blue Beetle: $5.96 Million

 

Average: $4.32 Million

 

Been real busy in my personal life so wasn't able to do my usual mid-week update, so the "new seats" column is over 7 days. Very solid week all in all, shaping up for a decent Valentine's Day

 

yeah this matches other trackers reports that Madame Web is having a good increase in pre sales in their markets as well, this has been reported by @TheFlatLannister and @dallas, and it’s increasing well also here in NY. Over 4M on VDay seems to be very likely rn.

Edited February 8 by leoh

[TheFlatLannister]

On 2/6/2024 at 7:06 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-23

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
554	3916	104695	3.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

112

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

1689

*82 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-23

 

(1.530x) of Oppenheimer $16.06M 

(1.001x) of Indy 5 $7.21M 

(2.360x) of Wonka $8.26M 

(2.208x) of Aquaman 2 $9.94M 

 

Comps AVG: $10.37M

 

Very good day. First time it's increased against all comps 

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
554	4015	104695	3.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

99

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

1722

*33 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-22

 

(1.510x) of Oppenheimer $15.86M 

(1.012x) of Indy 5 $7.29M 

(2.340x) of Wonka $8.19M 

(2.199x) of Aquaman 2 $9.89M 

 

Comps AVG: $10.30M

[TheFlatLannister]

On 2/6/2024 at 7:15 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

MADAME WEB

 

Wednesday

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
486	3667	93918	3.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

765

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

904

*51 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-8

(0.949x) of Blue Beetle $3.13M 

(0.843x) of AquaMan 2 $3.79M 

 

COMP AVG: $3.46M

FLORIDA 

 

MADAME WEB

 

Wednesday

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
486	3834	93918	4.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

167

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

977

*73 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(1.025x) of Blue Beetle $3.38M 

(0.893x) of AquaMan 2 $4.02M 

 

COMP AVG: $3.70M