The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[DAJK]

Walkups for One Love (for the matinees today) have been very, very solid. Only thing I can see killing it tonight is lack of capacity. Hopefully theaters are able to add enough additional shows.

 

If capacity holds, I can see it hitting 13-14 today. 

[abracadabra1998]

1 hour ago, leoh said:

you projections has been on point for movies OD box office recently. And I have a felling you get it right again this time (or at least really close)

Thank you! It’s all luck really, and I’ve a feeling my One Love prediction isn’t gonna turn out the best. Tough to figure out good comps for that one. But I really appreciate your words!

[TheFlatLannister]

Madame web is having not so bad walkups: Comp is at $6M

One love is going crazy. It's nearly tripling Madame Web in seats sold

Edited February 15 by TheFlatLannister

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Personally, I don’t love the TCP comp, but there also isn’t a huge cache of huge OD on movie holiday analogs to choose from

Also, bonus points to whomever to can identify AD’s lurker BOT account 👋 

 

I keep going back to this, but my OL comp against TCP is literally for a $250M opening day. It was at $1B at one point.

 

And I assumed they would be similar, and why I wasn't planning on tracking. I don't think there can be a wider discrepancy between expectations and reality.

 

My market is pretty unique, but I think it speaks to how easy it is to group all films targeting black audiences into one. I'll throw myself and my own preconceptions in there. But even know, people are still predicting a big front end based on those dynamics, but the growth right up until the end speaks to momentum that TCP hasn't had.

[emoviefan]

Seems like One Love is the new Bohemian Rhapsody on a smaller scale. A not great movie where the core audience just wants to hear the songs they love and if it delivers in that they are happy. Would be nice if it was a better movie  but something needed to shock the marketplace out of it's coma until Dune Part 2 hit. 

[Cmasterclay]

Rare Cmasterclay W incoming!

[emoviefan]

5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Rare Cmasterclay W incoming!

Gotta give you props on this one. 

[leoh]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Madame web is having not so bad walkups: Comp is at $6M

One love is going crazy. It's nearly tripling Madame Webb in seats sold

if Madame Web makes 6+ and OL makes 14+ this means a better or as good as VDay as 2023, right?

 

I am really happy for theaters, they were really needing money, the first 45 days of 2024 were terrifying theaters.

Edited February 15 by leoh

[leoh]

1 hour ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Thank you! It’s all luck really, and I’ve a feeling my One Love prediction isn’t gonna turn out the best. Tough to figure out good comps for that one. But I really appreciate your words!

I think you may get way closer than you think to OL VDay.

 

People forget that besides the 3500 locations capacity, OL tickets are basically only conventional screenings plus half of Dolby Cinema halls (around 80, the other ~50% is with Madame Web). Plus many of those tickets costed only 5 euros due to T mobile promotion. Then… all things considered OL might not be as big as it seems to be, although double digits is inevitable.

Edited February 15 by leoh

[TheFlatLannister]

2 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Madame web is having not so bad walkups: Comp is at $6M

One love is going crazy. It's nearly tripling Madame Web in seats sold

Marley comp is at $15.3M

 

22k seats sold today inc walkups 

Pretty insane growth

[DAJK]

Some theaters I track starting to wrap up ticket sales for the night.

 

Pretty consistently, One Live is 2.9x higher than Madame Webb in tickets sold. But since Webb has PLFs and I assume higher ticket price, I would expect something closer to 2.3-2.5x higher for final gross. 

 

Webb wasn't particularly strong nor weak, although walkups were pretty decent. Wouldn't be surprised at anything between 5-6 for the day, although I'm not confident enough to pinpoint an exact number. 

 

Marley I guess if you were to try and peg a final number based on the above ^ that would give you anywhere from 12-15M. Again, wouldn't be surprised at anything within that range, although I'm leaning closer to 13-14 for now. 

[VanillaSkies]

10 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Marley comp is at $15.3M

 

22k seats sold today inc walkups 

Pretty insane growth

Charlie just posted 14 million on Twitter, so those comps are pretty close.

[keysersoze123]

13 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

So how high Marley can go. I am now thinking its crossing 250K+ at MTC1 and ATP should take it above 3.5m. That would low double digits if its previews like Multi with a heavy MTC1 skew. But looking at rest of the reports and one time MTC2 data I got, its not skewing that bad. Plus wednesday full day ratios should go lower. I am now thinking 13m ish OD could happen with good walkups today. 

 

Ironically looking at how crazy final 2 days of Presales went, reminds me of another wednesday opener in Mario !!! if I dare to comp the above projections to Mario finish, Marley is looking at 15m OD. LOL. I think that is a huge LEAP. But hitting teen OD is not for sure. 

I am fairly pleased with my call this morning though it was obvious based on data from yesterday. 

 

Anyway

MTC1 VD

Bob Marley - 245624/591290 3543348.10 4178 shows

Madame Web - 102757/656581 1575570.43 3406 shows

 

Since Charlie has put out the numbers there is nothing to predict. The ratios are similar to a Friday than previews. It makes sense as this was not a preview.  

[TheTom]

27 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am fairly pleased with my call this morning though it was obvious based on data from yesterday. 

 

Anyway

MTC1 VD

Bob Marley - 245624/591290 3543348.10 4178 shows

Madame Web - 102757/656581 1575570.43 3406 shows

 

Since Charlie has put out the numbers there is nothing to predict. The ratios are similar to a Friday than previews. It makes sense as this was not a preview.  

How are the sales for Thursday and Friday @keysersoze123????? 
 

I guess MW and OL are way closer than they were on VDay, right?

[charlie Jatinder]

36 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am fairly pleased with my call this morning though it was obvious based on data from yesterday. 

 

Anyway

MTC1 VD

Bob Marley - 245624/591290 3543348.10 4178 shows

Madame Web - 102757/656581 1575570.43 3406 shows

 

Since Charlie has put out the numbers there is nothing to predict. The ratios are similar to a Friday than previews. It makes sense as this was not a preview.  

How are THU sales for both?

[leoh]

Theaters have the best post pandemic VDay box office with a surprising 20 million** made by new releases

OL made ~14M (it’s the 2nd biggest first day* box office for any movie released since July 2023)

Madame Web made ~6M (it is a better first day than Aquaman sequel (4.5M), Morbius (5.7M) and Blue Beetle (3.3M)  surprising enough)

 

@TheFlatLannister you seem to have nailed it regarding your latest Madame Web projection👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻

 

@vafrow please never question your own projections again, you were the first one projecting 6M+ for Madame Web and the very first one to dare to say OL could hit 14M on VDay. Well done!!!!!!

 

*previews as opposed to OD, but still it had only 3500 locations, a close number to previews for movies released in 4000+ locations.

 

**Charlie’s projection to both movies.

Edited February 15 by leoh

[keysersoze123]

33 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

How are THU sales for both?

MTC1 2/15

Bob Marley - 22059/444820 342373.49 2830 shows

Madame Web - 18018/503183 303526.04 2563 shows

 

While its close, pace of Marley is way higher(around 60% higher). I expect better walkups as well. 

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC1 2/15

Bob Marley - 22059/444820 342373.49 2830 shows

Madame Web - 18018/503183 303526.04 2563 shows

 

While its close, pace of Marley is way higher(around 60% higher). I expect better walkups as well. 

Did you check sales a day before? I thought you were checking just FrI

[keysersoze123]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

Did you check sales a day before? I thought you were checking just FrI

I had check yesterday afternoon. MW was slightly higher 13343 to 12975 for Marley. 

[charlie Jatinder]

29 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I had check yesterday afternoon. MW was slightly higher 13343 to 12975 for Marley. 

Hmm. Expecting 3-3.5M tomorrow. Not surprising, since we already knew, but yikes.