The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

19 minutes ago, iEnri said:

Is 80M dead then? Because some users here are saying the pre sales during the weekend is well spread which is great, but charlie also said friday is low so who knows.

 

SK had a very good second day drop, so this might be a good indicator.

Let us stop bringing in SK here. SK is completely different market compared to domestic. Not everything that does well domestic break outs over there. That said korea hold is due to holiday tomorrow. its more like a friday than thursday over there. 

 

Let us see how walkups go tomorrow. I would not call anything dead at this point. Presales especially for saturday is still great. But it looks tough at the moment for sure.  

[MysteryMovieMogul]

People who wanted to see this film are also the most likely to preorder tickets. It isn't that the good reviews were ignored, it's that people assume the early reviews are mostly from critics who enjoyed Part 1, which isn't entirely false (give or take an Ehrlich or two). So yeah, pre-sales were going to slow down.

 

Will walk-ups be great? Probably not amazing, but also, probably not terrible. Again, because Dune came to streaming immediately the same day as theaters, people know what they're in for.

 

I always figured this film was going to be big, but not massive. I'm still sticking with my John Wick 4 comparison, at least domestically.

[TJ327]

13 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

People who wanted to see this film are also the most likely to preorder tickets. It isn't that the good reviews were ignored, it's that people assume the early reviews are mostly from critics who enjoyed Part 1, which isn't entirely false (give or take an Ehrlich or two). So yeah, pre-sales were going to slow down.

 

Will walk-ups be great? Probably not amazing, but also, probably not terrible. Again, because Dune came to streaming immediately the same day as theaters, people know what they're in for.

 

I always figured this film was going to be big, but not massive. I'm still sticking with my John Wick 4 comparison, at least domestically.

I would have to agree. The fanbase has obviously grown since the first film came out, but it’s not at the level of billion dollar profit off a single film

 

yet.

[Porthos]

Quote

‘Dune: Part Two’ Posting Spicy $10M+ Previews – Box Office Early Look

 

 

Quote

Legendary Entertainment/Warner Bros‘ Dune: Part Two per industry estimates is off to a strong start with $10M-plus in previews. We hear that figure includes $2M from the Imax fan event screening that took place on Feb. 25. Note these numbers do not come from Warner Bros so they might be higher or lower in the AM. Previews began at 3PM.

 

Never change, Deadline, never change.

 

https://deadline.com/2024/02/box-office-dune-part-two-1235842667/

 

more from the link

Quote

At $10M+, that’s the biggest preview cash we’ve seen since, gosh, Barbenheimer Thursday, July 20, when Warner Bros’ Barbie made $22.3M and Universal’s Oppenheimer did $10.5M. Also, Five Nights at Freddy‘s, despite going day-and-date on Universal’s Peacock streaming service, also put up a great Thursday night preview of $10.3M back on Oct. 26. Freddy‘s opened to $80M, while Oppenheimer started at $82.4M. That’s the top end of where many are expecting the Denis Villeneuve directed sequel to come in this weekend. Far and away, Dune: Part Two‘s previews are ahead of the Thursday night of 2021’s Dune which did $5.1M from showtimes that started at 6pm. They’re also ahead of John Wick: Chapter 4‘s $8.9M, that movie putting up a $73.8M 3-day.

 

 

Edited March 1 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

18 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Dune 2 MiniTC2 T-1 Day

 

Thursday - 6288/57500 (228 showings)

 

Comps

0.90x Oppy - $9.4M

0.50x Avatar 2 - $8.5M

 

Avatar 2 behaved kind of normally here given it had general audience appeal while Oppy having less GA appeal underindexed, so that is a closer comp. 

 

Pace is meh. Final Oppy comp may drop to $9M even though Oppy had very low walkups itself due to Capacity constraints

 

Friday is ~81% of Oppy and ~52% of Avatar 2. That comps around $18.2M and $18.7M. 

Looks like 10.5K final. As everywhere, comps are dropping, even Oppy one despite Oppy having no space for walkups that day. 

[leoh]

26 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

 

Never change, Deadline, never change.

 

https://deadline.com/2024/02/box-office-dune-part-two-1235842667/

 

more from the link

 

 

If this is true and Dune got 10M+ including Sunday shows, this means @TheFlatLannister would be the one with the most accurate projection if he had kept his initial tracking (with the ATSV and Barbie comps). Florida trackings look more and more accurate, remember they were pointing to 6M to Madame Web and 14M One Love in T-0. Anyways, no one would have a under 9M was realistic, but I this was the only comp which was point to under 9M. Yet we have to see tomorrow the oficial report from WB

Edited March 1 by leoh

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, leoh said:

 

If this is true and Dune got 10M+ including Sunday shows, this means @TheFlatLannister would be the one with the most accurate projection if he had kept the ATSV and Barbie comps. Anyways, no one would have a under 9M was realistic, but I this was the only comp which was point to under 9M. Yet we have to see tomorrow the oficial report from WB

ATSV would have been a very bad comp for Dune 2. ATSV was very back heavy vs Dune being front heavy in sales. If ATSV comp was 8M say 3 days ago, it would now probably be around 6.

 

For context, MiniTC2 ATSV comp

 

The fall in last 3 days for ATSV is pretty huge. Oppy fell because it was helped by Barbenheimer, the best comp being Avatar 2 for trend purpose.

 

Though for overall comp, Oppy probably is best being PLF heavy and did strong in Canada too.

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, leoh said:

 

If this is true

 

 

Big "if". 

 

While a little bit overblown, Deadline has in fact earned quite a decent amount of the meme-age surrounding "Early Deadline Estimates".  They've been off as much as 2m to 3m at times when it comes to previews (from what I recall that is).

 

[leoh]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

ATSV would have been a very bad comp for Dune 2. ATSV was very back heavy vs Dune being front heavy in sales. If ATSV comp was 8M say 3 days ago, it would now probably be around 6.

 

For context, MiniTC2 ATSV comp

 

The fall in last 3 days for ATSV is pretty huge. Oppy fell because it was helped by Barbenheimer, the best comp being Avatar 2 for trend purpose.

 

Though for overall comp, Oppy probably is best being PLF heavy and did strong in Canada too.

I really like you graphs, thank you for sharing it with us.

 

Yet I meant to refer the really good scheme @TheFlatLannister did blending Oppenheimer, Aquaman, ATSV and Barbie, these comps from Florida would have given an under 9M average, something that eventually matches Dune Thursday box office according to Deadline (no other comps average that I can remember was point to under 8M). Anyways, Deadline might be wrong, we will know tomorrow when WB announce the office figures. 

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, leoh said:

I really like you graphs, thank you for sharing it with us.

 

Yet I meant to refer the really good scheme @TheFlatLannister did blending Oppenheimer, Aquaman, ATSV and Barbie, these comps from Florida would have given an under 9M average, something that eventually matches Dune Thursday box office according to Deadline (no other comps average that I can remember was point to under 8M). Anyways, Deadline might be wrong, we will know tomorrow when WB announce the office figures. 

Oh its not doing 8M. 9-9.25 is what it is doing.

[leoh]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

Big "if". 

 

While a little bit overblown, Deadline has in fact earned quite a decent amount of the meme-age surrounding "Early Deadline Estimates".  They've been off as much as 2m to 3m at times when it comes to previews (from what I recall that is).

 

I mean idk but their text cohesiveness is near, I know you saw it because you quote the very worst part lol 

 

“that’s the biggest preview cash we’ve seen since, gosh, Barbenheimer Thursday, July 20, when Warner Bros’ Barbie made $22.3M and Universal’s Oppenheimer did $10.5M. Also, Five Nights at Freddy‘s, despite going day-and-date on Universal’s Peacock streaming service, also put up a great Thursday night preview of $10.3M back on Oct. 26.”

 

So if Dune took two days of previews to make 10M (according to them) then it’s not the biggest Thursday preview since barbenheimer. It would be the biggest one since FNF. So they are like “let’s ignore this, a comp with Barbenheimer will give us a more appealing headline” (clickbait) Lol

[leoh]

10 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Oh its not doing 8M. 9-9.25 is what it is doing.

I mean Sunday + Thursday was 10M+ according to Deadline, which would mean under 9M for Dune this Thursday.  

Anyways, you’re usually more accurate than them tbf. So thank you from sharing the 9-9.25M info.   This at least still makes possible a mid 70s I guess

Edited March 1 by leoh

[abracadabra1998]

On 2/25/2024 at 9:38 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	72	33	137	10441	1.31

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		6	0	4.38
MTC1:		86	17	62.77
Marcus:		11	2	8.03
Alamo:		7	2	5.11
Other chains:		33	12	24.09

 

Comps:

0.57x Wonka: $1.98 Million

0.97x Wish (TUE): $1.75 Million

0.8x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $2.48 Million

2.69x Migration: $4.03 Million

2.74x Trolls (THU): $3.56 Million

 

Average: $2.76 Million

 

Added Trolls and Migration, which will be going down (Trolls had EA up until this update, and Migration was an original holiday release so very late sales), but the good news is the rest of the comps keep going up.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	72	99	236	10441	2.26

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		11	5	4.66
MTC1:		140	54	59.32
Marcus:		25	14	10.59
Alamo:		13	6	5.51
Other chains:		58	25	24.58

 

Comps:

0.79x Wonka: $2.76 Million

1.22x Wish (TUE): $2.2 Million

0.98x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $3.05 Million

3.23x Migration: $4.85 Million

2.57x Trolls (THU): $3.33 Million

 

Average: $3.24 Million

 

Really amazing jump here, was not expecting that! Average now over 3 million and that's with Wish, a Tuesday release with lower ATP, bringing it down.

 

In the midst of a lot of non-tracking talk in this thread today (and weirdly a loooooot of negativity), just wanted to leave a special thanks to all the trackers that are able to give updates at T-0, T-1 hour, and updates of walk-ups. Y'all rock! Just invaluable info, and I know it must be a ton of work. Wish I could be of further help but alas, we all do what we can. But seriously, y'all are the best ❤️ 

[abracadabra1998]

On 2/25/2024 at 9:30 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Imaginary (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	23	6	20	2074	0.96

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		18	10	90
Marcus:		2	0	10
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		0	0	0

 

Comps:*

1.25x ISS: Never reported, 1.25x of total FRI number is ~1.58 Million)

0.42x Thanksgiving: $420k

0.19x Exorcist Believer: $530k

 

Average (sans I.S.S): $475k

 

*At low numbers like these, there is high degree of variance. Take comps with a big grain of salt

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Imaginary (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	25	17	37	2180	1.7

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		29	11	78.38
Marcus:		4	2	10.81
Alamo:		2	2	5.41
Other chains:		2	2	5.41

 

Comps:*

1.28x ISS: Never reported, 1.28x of total FRI number is ~1.61 Million)

0.61x Thanksgiving: $605k

0.25x Exorcist Believer: $710k

 

Average (sans I.S.S): $660k

 

*At low numbers like these, there is high degree of variance. Take comps with a big grain of salt

 

I'll have better comps for this (Demeter, Talk To Me) at T-4, on Sunday. Ghostbusters Day 1 update in 1 hour or so

Edited March 1 by abracadabra1998

[leoh]

1 minute ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	72	99	236	10441	2.26

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		11	5	4.66
MTC1:		140	54	59.32
Marcus:		25	14	10.59
Alamo:		13	6	5.51
Other chains:		58	25	24.58

 

Comps:

0.79x Wonka: $2.76 Million

1.22x Wish (TUE): $2.2 Million

0.98x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $3.05 Million

3.23x Migration: $4.85 Million

2.57x Trolls (THU): $3.33 Million

 

Average: $3.24 Million

 

Really amazing jump here, was not expecting that! Average now over 3 million and that's with Wish, a Tuesday release with lower ATP, bringing it down.

 

In the midst of a lot of non-tracking talk in this thread today (and weirdly a loooooot of negativity), just wanted to leave a special thanks to all the trackers that are able to give updates at T-0, T-1 hour, and updates of walk-ups. Y'all rock! Just invaluable info, and I know it must be a ton of work. Wish I could be of further help but alas, we all do what we can. But seriously, y'all are the best ❤️ 

yeah I am pretty sure like most of big animations it’ll have really good walk ups next week. If it keeps increasing its growth pace I guess Po still might get 6M+ on Thursday previews. 

[dallas]

 

[ViewerAnon]

2 hours ago, TJ327 said:

I’ve been thinking - and I’m willing to concede this is not the most likely scenario - but have we considered the reason the numbers slowed right at the end is because of the hype?

 

By this point, anyone with a passing knowledge of the film has heard the immense critical hype. And they’re skeptical, because the public has a particularly  antagonistic relationship with Hollywood at this point. So they see a movie being this immensely hyped and they can’t help but feel like it’s hyperbole.

 

So, they’re waiting to see if it’s actually as good as the critics say. They know the people who want to see it will have seen it over the weekend (my bf and I are seeing a Saturday matinee), and they’ll decide from then on if they wanna see it from there.

 

This is a terminally online way of thinking. Contrary to what angry people ranting at webcams on YouTube say the general public does not hate movie critics.

[dallas]

Kung Fu Panda 4

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-7

Tickets Sold: 40 (+2)

Growth: 5%

% PLF: n/a

5 theaters/18 showtimes

 

Comps:

(2.667x) of Migration - $4.0 Million

 

Nothing big to report. Still targeting $4M previews, probably multiplies to a $35-40M opening. Legs will likely be good as well

[TJ327]

7 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

 

This is a terminally online way of thinking. Contrary to what angry people ranting at webcams on YouTube say the general public does not hate movie critics.

Funny you mention, I’m actively cutting back on my screen time. I was trying to think outside the box (and ngl I had a couple tokes). Take whatever I say with a grain of salt 

[dallas]

Ok this is really weird but Ghostbusters is off to an amazing start in my area. It's sold way more than Dune 2 did at the same point. I'll see how it increases in the coming days but this is a really great sign so far.