The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[von Kenni]

I started to dig deeper into MTC1 numbers (see the table below). I compared the THU Previews starting T-6 and ending in the deplorable fall from a cliff at T-0 (see the blue comps). Final ATP comp showed 6.03% higher ATP for Dune 2 and expected THU Previews of $9.12M. But then I went back to Early Showings to check what MTC1 predicted for them and was stunned.

 

I compared the ticket sales to Dune 1 T-0 (finals) (47397/94843 ~50% + ATP 13.26% higher) and got an expected EA of $2.89M which combined with the expected previews results in exactly $12M for EA + THU Previews!?

 

1) Where did I screw this up and is it just a coincidence?

2) How could the reported previews be so much off? Instead of $2M, $2.9M?

 

 

[Bob Train]

2 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

I started to dig deeper into MTC1 numbers (see the table below). I compared the THU Previews starting T-6 and ending in the deplorable fall from a cliff at T-0 (see the blue comps). Final ATP comp showed 6.03% higher ATP for Dune 2 and expected THU Previews of $9.12M. But then I went back to Early Showings to check what MTC1 predicted for them and was stunned.

 

I compared the ticket sales to Dune 1 T-0 (finals) (47397/94843 ~50% + ATP 13.26% higher) and got an expected EA of $2.89M which combined with the expected previews results in exactly $12M for EA + THU Previews!?

 

1) Where did I screw this up and is it just a coincidence?

2) How could the reported previews be so much off? Instead of $2M, $2.9M?

 

 

EA shows were only IMAX, and MTC1 has a disproportionately high amount of IMAX.

[von Kenni]

11 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

EA shows were only IMAX, and MTC1 has a disproportionately high amount of IMAX.

Maybe I'm slow today but can you open up more how that results inflated EA results in practice when comparing to those Dune 1 comps?

[Porthos]

I mean, look, at the end of the day this only really matters when trying to forecast a plausible multiplier for this films OW (which will cease to matter in approx 24 hours or less) and future films similar to Dune: Part Two.

 

But how many big films coming up soon-ish (ie in the next three years or so) are gonna be that similar to D2?  Ava 3, maybe?  But even then, holiday concerns plus whatever the fuck ATP hike occur by the time it finally releases might make it somewhat moot.

 

Batman 2?  Dune 3?  What else is out there where this will really be a decent comp?  I haven't really used the OG Dune all that much after all.  Hell, one of the reasons this film was so hard to comp for so long is because it was such an odd duck.

 

And, honestly, I can't say I really care that much.  I cared enough to make my initial post on the subject but more for some of the topics surrounding it as opposed To Figuring Out The Truth™. But getting that much more into the weeds about it?

 

I mean, it is what it is.  Isn't the first film to have a suspect preview number (remember the incredulity surrounding Lightyear?) Isn't the first film to have a preview number well above expectations (Top Gun Maverick came in well above BOT consensus).  And it might not be the first preview number that is plausibly/probably an out and out lie (see Jat's seemingly never ending crusade against the reported number for TFA).

 

As such... Eh.

[leoh]

According to deadline, Dune got 30M to 34M today (including previews).

 

Considering the 12M in previews reported by Warner Bros, this would mean Dune made between 20M and 22M only this Friday..

 

Dune OW is expected to be in between 70M and 80M (best scenario).

 

So yeah this is basically what this forum was expecting/projecting on these last couple of days.

 

Some people should just calm down. We’ll find out next Monday when actuals are reported.

 

Take it easy, projecting isn’t seeing into the future. 

 

https://deadline.com/2024/03/box-office-dune-part-two-1235842667/

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 2 by leoh

[TheFlatLannister]

4 hours ago, iEnri said:

If there is a round up, it is likely very small, it likely did 10M or close to that in true Thurdsay. The fact is that Dune was undepredicted in this forum, Dune continues to overperform everytime, the doom was too much. Trackers here are not incapable of getting the numbers wrong.

 

Charlie predictions were absolutely wrong and ridiculous, the fact that he said below 70M was possible just show how bad it was. Dune continue to impress with numbers! Rise to 700M+ WW continues.

[vale9001]

1 hour ago, leoh said:

According to deadline, Dune got 30M to 34M today (including previews).

 

Considering the 12M in previews reported by Warner Bros, this would mean Dune made between 20M and 22M only this Friday..

 

Dune OW is expected to be in between 70M and 80M (best scenario).

 

So yeah this is basically what this forum was expecting/projecting on these last couple of days.

 

Some people should just calm down. We’ll find out next Monday when actuals are reported.

 

Take it easy, projecting isn’t seeing into the future. 

 

https://deadline.com/2024/03/box-office-dune-part-two-1235842667/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Uh 77% of the audience over 25.

 

As I said It's not this saga It's not for the GA. The real problem Is young people are not really involved (and Imagine without chalamet and Zendaya on It). With just a little bit more going around 100 was possibile. Still hoping the WOM, for example about chalamet and Zendaya love story, can involve more young people in the next days- weeks.

Edited March 2 by vale9001

[TheFlatLannister]

FLORIDA 

 

Ghostbusters

 

Thursday 

 

T-19

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
470	2097	95104	2.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

159

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-19

 

(0.467x) of Dune 2 $4.66M  

 

Comps average: $4.66M

 

Was kind of busy yesterday, but yeah this is pretty good. 

[NoobSaibot]

I like that Ghostbusters seems to be showing signs of life with presales, which probably has a hint of irony considering what the franchise is about.

 

I don't expect it to get too crazy or blaze trails, but I'm in some circles where they projected it was going to bomb. This gives me a bit of hope that it won't.

[leoh]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Ghostbusters

 

Thursday 

 

T-19

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
470	2097	95104	2.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

159

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-19

 

(0.467x) of Dune 2 $4.66M  

 

Comps average: $4.66M

 

Was kind of busy yesterday, but yeah this is pretty good. 

cool, this ~5M in previews also matches @abracadabra1998 tracking from yesterday. It’s doing pretty well here in NY as well, in AMC theaters some PLF halls sold over 50% of their tickets for evening shows within the first 12 hours.

 

Edited March 2 by leoh

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Previews Final - 159901/703588 2888378.49 3963 shows +34533

Friday - 188677/1160663 3378473.19 6542 shows +33917

Saturday - 193147/1206254 3331495.73 6796 shows +29220

 

Meh finish. In fact this has to be among the most disappointing PS finish though if you had told me before start of presales of this number I would take it. ~9m previews only bcos this will have record breaking ATP driven mostly by Imax and PLF. Charlie has the right range for OW at this point. Let us see how walkups go over the weekend. 

Dune 2 MTC1

Friday Final - 294916/1166777 5034458.38 6619 shows +106239

Saturday - 255189/1212673 4289213.25 6888 shows +62042

 

Still walkups were just ok. I am expecting it to be much better tomorrow. 

[dallas]

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-20 

Tickets Sold: 114 (+26)

Growth: 30%

% PLF: 55%

5 theaters/28 showtimes

 

Comps:

(1.226x) of Dune 2 - $12.25 Million

 

Just a terrific start. I don't really have any other great comps to use because they all spit out to something crazy like >$50M. I'm not sure if this is over indexing or what, but this is very promising. Though I am to understand that Ghostbusters has a very big fanbase, so I wouldn't be surprised if this falls to the $5-6M range as we move closer to release. 

[dallas]

Kung Fu Panda 4 

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-6

Tickets Sold: 42 (+2)

Growth: 1%

% PLF: n/a

5 theaters/18 showtimes

 

Comps:

(2.471x) of Migration - $3.71 Million

 

Meh growth today. Still confident in a $35-40M opening. Nothing huge but should have no problem passing $100M and probably even $150M. 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Friday Final - 294916/1166777 5034458.38 6619 shows +106239

Saturday - 255189/1212673 4289213.25 6888 shows +62042

 

Still walkups were just ok. I am expecting it to be much better tomorrow. 

Actual gross is similar, that means a lot of AMC A-list tix as usually tracked is 90-95% of actual. 

 

That said MTC 1 has underindexed expectations. Was expecting closer to 26%, it will come under 25%.

Edited March 2 by charlie Jatinder

[keysersoze123]

On 2/29/2024 at 4:32 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1

Previews - 10335/318017 156713.55 2071 shows +4073

Friday - 11281/468366 170642.89 2916 shows +5205

 

1 week to go and this is 7 days of data. 

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1

Previews(T-6) - 11914/322378 180772.44 2102 shows +1579

Friday - 13880/471405 210782.08 2939 shows +2599

 

around 29 hrs of data. 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Actual gross is similar, that means a lot of discounted tix as usually tracked is 90-95% of actual. 

 

That said MTC 1 has underindexed expectations. Was expecting closer to 26%, it will come under 25%.

Also if that is true, then previews should be under 2.75. In that case, absolutely no chance it did 9.25M+ on THU.

[leoh]

27 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Also if that is true, then previews should be under 2.75. In that case, absolutely no chance it did 9.25M+ on THU.

Now I understand why Box Office Mojo doesn’t add any information for previews, this info is never really verifiable. Actuals on Monday will be pretty interesting to follow…

[vafrow]

On 3/1/2024 at 5:44 AM, vafrow said:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-7 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 113

New Sales: 22

Growth: 24%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 6.6

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 3/2

Late Afternoon: 28/3

Early Evening: 48/6

Late Evening: 34/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 76/8
3D Regular:11/6
Dolby: 26/3

 

Comps

2.132x Wonka for $7.5

 

A really good day. With sales seemingly driven by some small groups, it's leading to a bit of an up and down growth pattern. But overall, this is doing pretty well, especially since my assumption was that previews would be off a bit as people hold on this to watch during the break.

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-6 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 135

New Sales: 22

Growth: 19%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 7.9

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 3/2

Late Afternoon: 30/3

Early Evening: 55/6

Late Evening: 47/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 83/8
3D Regular:18/6
Dolby: 34/3

 

Comps

2.547x Wonka for $8.9M

 

This has almost caught Wonka's T-1 number. It gets there tomorrow or Monday.

 

I really wish I had another decent animated comp to measure. I did track Paw Patrol for a wider area, but I have no gross for that track since it was only in previews in Canada. It also had a short cycle (8 days). But, counting the additional area, KFP4 is roughly 5x sales volumes (and probably has higher ATP due to 3d, Dolby and the fact that no adult is watching Paw Patrol without a kid). None of this helps pin down performance, other than it seems to be doing well.

 

[Minnale101]

14 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-6 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 135

New Sales: 22

Growth: 19%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 7.9

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 3/2

Late Afternoon: 30/3

Early Evening: 55/6

Late Evening: 47/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 83/8
3D Regular:18/6
Dolby: 34/3

 

Comps

2.547x Wonka for $8.9M

 

This has almost caught Wonka's T-1 number. It gets there tomorrow or Monday.

 

I really wish I had another decent animated comp to measure. I did track Paw Patrol for a wider area, but I have no gross for that track since it was only in previews in Canada. It also had a short cycle (8 days). But, counting the additional area, KFP4 is roughly 5x sales volumes (and probably has higher ATP due to 3d, Dolby and the fact that no adult is watching Paw Patrol without a kid). None of this helps pin down performance, other than it seems to be doing well.

 

I wonder if this movie skews higher to cities with higher Chinese population obviously living here, there’s huge Chinese population here especially Markham 

 

 

[vafrow]

On 3/1/2024 at 6:52 AM, vafrow said:

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), D1, T-21, Thursday previews,

 

Total Sales: 16

New Sales: NA

Growth: NA

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 4

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.2

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 2/3

Early Evening: 11/5

Late Evening: 3/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 14/10
IMAX:2/1
VIP: 0/2

 

D1 Comps

0.340x HG:BoSS for $2.0

0.889x Madame Web for $5.4M 

0.727x Aquaman 2 for $3.3M

 

Not a bad start, but some important context here.

 

For some reason, the biggest theatre in my sample doesn't have any Thursday showtimes. And it has Friday showings, so it's not like they're skipping this one. This is the theatre with the best IMAX screen in the area as well, which probably would have driven day one sales a bit. Plus, the only other IMAX screen in my sample only has a 4:00 pm showing.

 

Also, I'm using day one comps, but the three films all had shorter ticket windows, which might be impacting things.

 

Also, this film seems to have premium ticket pricing in effect. Tickets have a $1 premium attached. This was in place for Dune and for Kung Fu Panda. I haven't been tracking this specifically, but MTC4 apparently put it in around Barbenheimmer last year for opening weekend of big films.

 

I'll try and track it up front a bit more, but, I'm guessing any film that I'll be tracking will have it in place for opening weekend.

 

What's really funny is the chain has taken a lot of heat for putting in an online booking fee. There's been lawsuits and lots of negative press for being deceitful pricing. But they've managed to put in a form of surge pricing essentially without a lot push back, and without people really noticing.

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), D2, T-20, Thursday previews,

 

Total Sales: 19

New Sales: 3

Growth: 19%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 4

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.5

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 3/3

Early Evening: 13/5

Late Evening: 3/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 14/10
IMAX:3/1
VIP: 2/2

 

D1 Comps

0.250x HG:BoSS for $1.4M

0.731x Madame Web for $4.4M 

0.655x Aquaman 2 for $2.9M

 

Not a good day 2. 

 

The biggest element here is that there's still no Thursday showtimes for the large theatre in my sample. Further, I looked at the broader area and there's no evening IMAX screenings for previews. The one in my area has it for Friday onwards in the evening, but that's the only one. The rest just have matinees.

 

I'm guessing the chain is hedging in case Dune needs the screens, but I thought IMAX contracts were pretty rigid.

 

It'll be interesting to watch. The lack of sales probably isn't helping. For beif the only IMAX evening screening in the area, the Friday showings aren't doing tremendously either.