The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[leoh]

3 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Guys, how is Godzilla VS Kong doing? Any updates?

tickets aren't on sale yet 

[leoh]

 

Dune Part Two International actuals.

 

It ended up being slightly lower than the 100M projected by Warner Bros.

 

International OW: Dune Part Two made $99,783,744

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 5 by leoh

[cooldude97]

 

[titanic2187]

6 minutes ago, leoh said:

 

Dune Part Two International actuals.

 

It ended up being slightly lower than the 100M project by Warner Bros.

 

International OW: Dune Part Two made $99,783,744

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Don't follow the numbers international gross, they are consistently wrong. 

[NoobSaibot]

15 minutes ago, cooldude97 said:

 

 

Lesson learned then: Wait for an official source to give dates. Not that this source is official either.

 

A lot of people were convinced it was happening today.

Edited March 5 by NoobSaibot

[vafrow]

13 minutes ago, cooldude97 said:

 

 

We probably should wait for a better source than Cryptic HD Quality.

 

 

[leoh]

10 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Don't follow the numbers international gross, they are consistently wrong. 

not about actuals in the first OW, they usually make a good job.

 

mojo is still the reference, but they usually don’t update the international  actuals. For example, One Love made almost 1 million less when Paramount reported its international actuals. They never updated the info. However, they update the international for Madame Web OW, which was 300k over the Sony estimate.

[vafrow]

Imaginary is doing horribly around me.

 

In my five theatre radius, it's sold 6 tickets as of T-2.5 or so. 

 

Night Swim had sold 60 tickets as of T-2.

 

If I expand my radius, it's doing a bit better. I get up to 19 tickets sold if I go to 10 theatres, but still pointing to a very poor result here.

[leoh]

8 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

We probably should wait for a better source than Cryptic HD Quality.

 

 

he has never made a single mistake regarding pre sales start in the US.

 

and there’s no chance GxB is going to have tickets on sale this week, it simply doesn’t have even enough shows set to put tickets on sale.

Edited March 5 by leoh

[titanic2187]

22 minutes ago, leoh said:

not about actuals in the first OW, they usually make a good job.

 

mojo is still the reference, but they usually don’t update the international  actuals. For example, One Love made almost 1 million less when Paramount reported its international actuals. They never updated the info. However, they update the international for Madame Web OW, which was 300k over the Sony estimate.

But WB seldom to almost never reported an actual BO with random detailed number like $99,783,744. All of their international update are round up figure ending with 000 so I don't know how the numbers got that "actual" number. 

 

[Boxofficerules]

When does the review embargo end on Imaginary?

[Porthos]

59 minutes ago, NoobSaibot said:

 

Lesson learned then: Wait for an official source to give dates. Not that this source is official either.

 

A lot of people were convinced it was happening today.

 

Ummmm...  @misterpepp is as close to official as we can get and I for one massively appreciate them letting us know current plans.

 

Yes, until the PR blast actually goes out, current plans can change.  But, guess what?  Ticket sales rollouts can change even after a PR blast, if rare.

 

...

 

Just about as rare as pepp being wrong about a planned ticket drop.

 

ETA:::

 

In fact, as I scan their posts, I don't see a mention of GxK's ticket drop date from them.  So why did we think it was today then, anyway?

Edited March 5 by Porthos

[leoh]

46 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

But WB seldom to almost never reported an actual BO with random detailed number like $99,783,744. All of their international update are round up figure ending with 000 so I don't know how the numbers got that "actual" number. 

 

I’ll explain you: 

 

You have the estimate numbers given by studios on Sunday. Afterwards you’ll have the actuals on Monday. So every country has an estimate box office followed by actuals next day or so.

 

Giving you an example: Madame Web OW Sony estimate was 2.9M, then the he actual ended up being $2,864,812.

 

Hope you get it.     

[misterpepp]

Cryptic’s date is correct, looks like the 13th.

 

As Porthos mentioned, I never posted a date for GxK until now (Not that I’m devaluing the contributions of others to this thread). I’m pretty sure the ticketing dates posted here, both by myself and others, have been right way more than they’ve been wrong.

Edited March 5 by misterpepp

[leoh]

39 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

When does the review embargo end on Imaginary?

 

tomorrow morning

 

👀

[Shawn Robbins]

KFP4 is definitely pacing better than projected. Gonna be a bit of a noticeable shift in the final forecast range tomorrow.

[leoh]

15 minutes ago, Shawn Robbins said:

KFP4 is definitely pacing better than projected. Gonna be a bit of a noticeable shift in the final forecast range tomorrow.

 

I am looking forward to BOP final forecast range tomorrow. Right now it seems a high end at 45M wound reasonable. 
 

I am really because theaters will have another big weekend, it’s really important. Jan/Feb were terrible for theaters.

[Porthos]

Anyway, with a slightly shorter pre-sale window than expected for GxK, BOSS might be one of the better comps for GxK.  Exact same number of days of pre-sales, franchise property frontloading, but still a GA-ish skew.  GxK will probably, probably, be more backloaded, but have to tell y'alls something.  Exact same number of days of pre-sales goes a decent way for covering up sins.

 

Is gonna hurt the RotB comps for a while though, as that went on sale at T-29 exactly two weeks longer.  JWD becomes practically worthless until deeeeep into run given it had nearly a whole more month of pre-sales (starting at T-42).  Even populist/GA skewing franchise entries like AtSV and Black Adam/John Wick 4 get hurt a bit given they had six to nine more days of pre-sales.

 

To put all of the above slightly differently, not gonna see a U-curve in pre-sales so much as a V bounce or even a ✓ takeoff where there is a few days of deceleration before things pick back up again.

 

Ah well, can't make things too easy, I suppose.

 

(as I check my charts, also have FB3 at a similar length (one extra day of pre-sales which is practically nothing), but all sorts of problems with that comp locally as the Fantastic Beasts tends to do better locally than it does nationwide)

[jeffthehat]

23 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

3/8 openers T-3

Movie	Sales	Seats	Shows
Kung Fu Panda 4	473	19257	128
Cabrini	221	3093	30
Imaginary	123	3385	37

Kung Fu Panda 4 Comps

0.22x One Love Wed T-3 = $3.0m

0.44x Madame Web Wed T-3 = $2.7m

4.73x Lisa Frankenstein T-3 = $2.8m 

Indiana

3/8 openers T-2

Movie	Sales	Seats	Shows	Growth
Kung Fu Panda 4	588	22520	148	+24.3%
Cabrini	235	3965	39	+6.3%
Imaginary	136	4395	48	+10.6%

Kung Fu Panda 4 Comps

0.24x One Love Wed T-2 = $3.3m

0.44x Madame Web Wed T-2 = $3.0m

5.44x Lisa Frankenstein T-2 = $3.3m

 

AVG = $3.2m

---

Good jump for KFP4

Edited March 5 by jeffthehat

[Boxofficerules]

12 minutes ago, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

3/8 openers T-2

Movie	Sales	Seats	Shows	Growth
Kung Fu Panda 4	588	22520	148	+24.3%
Cabrini	235	3965	39	+6.3%
Imaginary	136	4395	48	+10.6%

Kung Fu Panda 4 Comps

0.24x One Love Wed T-2 = $3.3m

0.44x Madame Web Wed T-2 = $3.0m

5.44x Lisa Frankenstein T-2 = $3.3m

 

AVG = $3.2m

---

Good jump for KFP4

Is it good for Imaginary?