The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, Porthos said:

The thing about animation films, especially ones geared to kids is, they ALL have strong walkups.  Well, the vast majority of them, at any rate.

 

The tricky part is, figuring out just how strong those walkups will be, as since it's usually concentrated in the last two days, being able to see just how high the wave crests can be... difficult.  If not impossible in some cases.

 

I want to expand a little bit about this.

 

Take Kung Fu Panda 4 in Sacramento.  It sold nearly 1100 tickets today by stop of tracking, for about 46% of ALL of its sales from the entire pre-sale run.

 

That's a nutty percentage for ONE DAY for a film.

 

It still lost a slight amount of ground to Elemental, comp wise (going from a comp of 3.08m to 2.95m), as Elemental did 48.6% of ITS sales on its day of release (929/1910).

 

Animated kid films just do bananas business on day of release as a proportion of all sales.  Thus it can be a little tricky to try to figure how just how big the walkups will be since one is never quite sure just how big the walkups really will be.

 

---

 

FWIW, 3.5m wouldn't be a surprise at all to me, since it's just at the outside edge of my range of 2.9m to 3.5.  Hell, even 3.75m wouldn't be totally shocking as it just takes a higher-than-anticipated ATP/doing better in some parts of the country than others.  At the same time, 3m ain't gonna be a surprise to me, either.

 

tl;dr: tracking animated kids films can be wild; especially on the last day of tracking.

Edited March 8 by Porthos

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

Any idea what kind of metrics studios use to estimate walkups in advance like what we've seen for Kung Fu Panda?

 

None clue whatsoever. Sorry. 🙂.

 

 @M37 might know.  I suspect @Shawn Robbins could chip in, in a general sense; both for what he generally looks for (without giving away Trade Secrets) and what the industry in general/the studios look for.

 

But I suspect things like Google Trends and similar social media engagement metrics and similar survey data along side raw ticket sales (which is what we at BOT tend to fixate more on — well that and RT scores 😉).

Edited March 8 by Porthos

[von Kenni]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

None clue whatsoever. Sorry. 🙂.

 

 @M37 might know.  I suspect @Shawn Robbins could chip in, in a general sense; both for what he generally looks for (without giving away Trade Secrets) and what the industry in general the studios look for.

 

But I suspect things like Google Trends and similar social media engagement metrics and similar survey data along side raw ticket sales (which is what we at BOT tend to fixate more on — well that and RT scores 😉).

Yeah, the non raw ticket sales metrics would be interesting to know. I.e. is some of those what you said or are there one or two metrics that raise above others or might the metrics even vary a lit based on genre or other factors. Fascinating stuff in any case.

[keysersoze123]

Walkups are estimated based on how similar movies behaved previously and of course interest around the project helps or could prevent a movie from achieving its potential. 

[leoh]

Given the optimism coming from the industry projections, Kung Fu Panda 4 got almost 150 new locations.
 

King fu Panda will be released in 4035 locations.

 

A blockbuster release level that can allow Panda to live up the most optimistic estimates which are right now at 60M+ opening weekend.
 

Be ready for what may be the greatest walk ups for any movie in a long long time. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 8 by leoh

[Issac Newton]

Box Office Report (@BOReport) Prediction

 

Predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.

 

Rank	Film (Distributor)	Weekend Gross	Total Gross	% Change	Week #
1	Kung Fu Panda 4 (Universal / DreamWorks Anim.)	$50.0 M	$50.0 M	NEW	1
2	Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros. / Legendary)	$47.0 M	$158.3 M	-43%	2
3	Cabrini (Angel Studios)	$9.3 M	$9.3 M	NEW	1
4	Imaginary (Lionsgate)	$9.2 M	$9.2 M	NEW	1
5	Bob Marley: One Love (Paramount)	$4.7 M	$90.0 M	-37%	4
6	Ordinary Angels (Lionsgate)	$2.1 M	$16.2 M	-44%	3
7	The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7 & 8 (Fathom Events)	$1.9 M	$7.6 M	-42%	2
8	Madame Web (Sony / Columbia)	$1.4 M	$42.9 M	-56%	4
9	Migration (Universal)	$1.3 M	$125.6 M	-48%	12

[Porthos]

26 minutes ago, leoh said:

Be ready for what may be the greatest walk ups for any movie in a long long time. 

 

Let's Play, Name That Movie! 🙂 

 

Quote

Total Seats Sold Today

263

T-4 Comp

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A	142.41		75	995		0/117	16554/17549	5.67%		9196	15.41%		6.41m
Sonic 2	104.11		172	1361		0/92	11557/12918	10.54%		5847	24.23%		6.51m

 

Quote

Total Seats Sold Today

488

T-3 Comp

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A	161.85		182	1177		0/153	19354/20531	5.73%		9196	20.72%		7.28m
Sonic 2	116.87		269	1630		0/109	12800/14430	11.30%		5847	32.58%		7.30m

 

Quote

Total Seats Sold Today

829

T-2 Comp

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A	181.06		333	1510		0/178	21594/23104	6.54%		3034	90.11%		8.15m
Sonic 2	130.44		466	2096		0/119	13278/15374	13.63%		3951	69.20%		8.15m

 

 

Quote

Total Seats Sold Today

1286

T-1 Comp

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A	193.27		570	2080		0/192	22169/24249	8.58%		3034	132.50%		8.70m
Sonic 2	139.44		787	2883		0/125	12991/15874	18.16%		3951	101.75%		8.71m
FB3	132.59		637	3032		0/207	24756/27788	10.91%		4456	90.22%		7.96m

 

 

Quote

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night

1000

T-0 [Mid-Day] Comp

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A [12:00-12:45]	201.36		413	2493		0/192	21771/24264	10.27%		3034	165.46%		9.06m
Sonic 2 [11:40-12:05]	154.60		364	3247		0/126	12668/15915	20.40%		3951	127.06%		9.66m
FB3 [11:45-12:30]	138.18		601	3633		0/207	24155/27788	13.07%		4456	112.66%		8.29m

 

Quote

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day

1571

T-0 Comp

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A [3:50-4:30]	217.24		541	3034		0/192	21230/24264	12.50%		3034	217.24%		9.78m
Sonic 2 [3:55-4:15]	166.82		704	3951		0/126	11964/15915	24.83%		3951	166.82%		10.43m
FB3 [3:50-4:25]	147.91		823	4456		0/207	23332/27788	16.04%		4456	147.91%		8.87m

 

Final? 

 

Spoiler

Minions 2: 10.75m    

 

Edited March 8 by Porthos

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

6 hours ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:

 

The Angel Studios website currently shows that Total Pre-Sales for Cabrini are at ~473,000 tickets pre-sold. (This number has grown by ~200,000 in 2 days.) Of course there's no time period for ticket use given, but the majority seem to be purchased for the weekend as pointed out by El Sid, etc.  It seems like Regal's portal is not directly connected to the Angel Studios booking website, so the count is probably not fully live, which means this number may not capture all current pre-sales.

 

At the $15 face value ascribed to the tickets by Angel Studios, that equates to ~$7,095,000 in pre-sales. Of course there has been rampant discounting (a 15% discount is still occurring on the Angel website), so would a fair average be around $12? If so, that equates to about $5,676,000 in pre-sales. 

 

Since today is classified as opening day, then pre-sales for today would not be attributed to the weekend. To be cautious and estimate that $500,000 of those are for today, after subtracting those out, then that points to ~$5,176,000+ of additional pre-sales going into the weekend.

Angel Studios gave Deadline a breakdown with Sound of Freedom's financials, including exact figures for Pay It Forward grosses and ticket sales. The ATP came out to $11.92 (and the fees $0.62 per ticket).

 

The $15 amount for Pay It Forward is (to my understanding) more like a $15 donation to Angel Studios that includes the cost of a ticket (donors have to pay the overage for pricier markets, but look at where they are the most popular). The ticket amount Angel reports for box office purposes seems to be roughly regular market value (the same as non PIF tickets).

[HummingLemon496]

@Porthos

 

Speaking of which didn't Venom 2 also have insane walk-ups? I think Legion made a "under $42M OW" club (and it was based on tracking) but it ended up doubling that even though it had trash reviews 🤣

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Let's Play, Name That Movie! 🙂 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Final? 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Minions 2: 10.75m    

 

 

I mean, Minions 2 LITERALLY rose A MILLION A DAY ON COMPS THE LAST FOUR DAYS and still undershot it!  Can claim all you want about not having great comps for it, and I suppose so.  But literally no one saw this, ahem, rise coming from any of our tracks at the time (thread consensus, as I check was low to mid 9s). 

 

We had to scramble to figure out what the fuck was going on, and only when we ran into the GentleMinions meme, did it all make sense.  And even then we were trying to figure out all OW long just how long the meme would burn.

[HummingLemon496]

Just now, Porthos said:

I mean, Minions 2 LITERALLY rose A MILLION A DAY ON COMPS THE LAST FOUR DAYS and still undershot it!  Can claim all you want about not having great comps for it, and I suppose so.  But literally no one saw this, ahem, rise coming from any of our tracks at the time (thread consensus, as I check was low to mid 9s). 

 

We had to scramble to figure out what the fuck was going on, and only when we ran into the GentleMinions meme, did it all make sense.  And even then we were trying to figure out all OW long just how long the meme would burn.

The cultural impact of Morbius memes 

 

(yes, I'm serious)

[charlie Jatinder]

I don’t think KFP4 has done anything extraordinary. Was thinking 45-55 for it for last 3 weeks or so and its doing that.

[Porthos]

13 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

@Porthos

 

Speaking of which didn't Venom 2 also have insane walk-ups? I think Legion made a "under $42M OW" club (and it was based on tracking) but it ended up doubling that even though it had trash reviews 🤣

 

Sure did.  That's the other Recent Gold Standard of Blowing the Fuck Up.

 

Started at Sunday T-4 but looking back can see the first glimmer of signs when the buzz first started coming out of those fan screenings.

 

Lemme put it this way.  The T-4 number was ***SO*** unexpected, I actually took the time TO RE-DO MY *ENTIRE TRACK* JUST TO MAKE SURE I HADN'T FUCKED UP SOMEWHERE.

 

It was just insanity how much it exploded Sunday night and took off like a rocket ship after that point.

Edited March 8 by Porthos

[abracadabra1998]

I remember Jat saying something on here about Minions 2 like “guys… this is the first time in a while we absolutely missed the train that was coming” totally butchered the quote but really crystallized how insane its last week was

 

I wasn’t tracking at the time but it was still a fun one to lurk for 😁

[DAJK]

1 minute ago, abracadabra1998 said:

I remember Jat saying something on here about Minions 2 like “guys… this is the first time in a while we absolutely missed the train that was coming” totally butchered the quote but really crystallized how insane its last week was

 

I wasn’t tracking at the time but it was still a fun one to lurk for 😁

Not tracking related but I was still working as a movie theater manager that weekend.

 

My god, that was probably the worst shift I had ever worked, Sunday matinee on Minions opening. We got absolutely CRUSHED by the business.

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I don’t think KFP4 has done anything extraordinary. Was thinking 45-55 for it for last 3 weeks or so and its doing that.

 

Yeah, even if KP4 has some stronger than anticipated by some walkups, I'm just trying to put all of this into context. 🙂 

 

(FWIW, walkups weren't anything particularly special in Sacramento, but my database for this type of movie at this size is pretty darn slim so I am more than willing to think I could be an outlier here)

[charlie Jatinder]

12 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Kung Fu Panda 4 MiniTC2 T-1 Day

Thursday - 1556/35944 (170 showings)

 

Comps

1.25x Elemental - $3M

1.99x Trolls 3 - $2.6M

0.23x Minions 2 - $2.5M

0.92x Haunted Mansion - $2.85M

 

Friday - 3675/98336 (462 showings)

 

Comps

2.05x Elemental - $19.1M (Summer, ignore)

1.45x Trolls 3 - $11.7M

4.20x Migration - $17.64M (Xmas & too small, ignore)

Kung Fu Panda 4 MiniTC2 Final

 

Thursday - 6476/36705 (177 showings) ~$72K
 

Comps

1.30x Elemental - $3.1M

2.90x Trolls 3 - $3.75M

0.28x Minions 2 - $3M

 

Normally $72K would give $3.25-3.5M ish for an animated title.

[charlie Jatinder]

Dune 2 MiniTC2

 

2nd Friday - 5058/65540 (315 showings)

2nd Saturday - 4526/66713 (315 showings)

 

At same time, 42% of 1st FRI & 44% of 1st SAT.

[charlie Jatinder]

13 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Kung Fu Panda 4 MiniTC2 T-1 Day

Friday - 3675/98336 (462 showings)

 

Comps

2.05x Elemental - $19.1M (Summer, ignore)

1.45x Trolls 3 - $11.7M

4.20x Migration - $17.64M (Xmas & too small, ignore)

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 MiniTC2 T-0 Day

 

Friday - 6448/100014 (477 showings)

 

Comps

1.63x Elemental - $15.2M

1.59x Trolls 3 - $12.8M

[JD Asencio]

2 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

@Porthos

 

Hablando de eso, ¿Venom 2 no tenía también locos walk-ups? Creo que Legion creó un club de "menos de $ 42 millones OW" (y se basó en el seguimiento), pero terminó duplicándolo a pesar de que tenía críticas basura  🤣

taking reference from ROTB with GxK coming soon