The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Shawn Robbins]

34 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

Thanks, I appreciate taking time to elaborate on this and great job with Dune Part Two projection when most were jumping on the doom-gloom train. I guess those other trade secret metrics helped too

 

[vafrow]

I wanted to see how KFP4 is holding up for Friday compared to Thursday, where I seemed to overindex compared to the actual.

 

The last proper account was done early morning on Thursday with a count of 421. I know walk ups were strong across others. Anecdotally, my check ins during the day didn't look great for walk ups, but there was some volume obviously.

 

As of 3pm, Friday sales are at 2182, or 5.2x my last Thursday count. I can't see showtimes that have started, so I might have missed some early afternoon matinees.

 

So, it's doing well today. Capacity is a concern for a lot of shows, so I expect overflow into the weekend.

[Minnale101]

22 hours ago, Minnale101 said:

I said this earlier in thread but I’m gonna stick by it, kfp4 I think is gonna over index in cities and places with higher Chinese population 

 

I was looking at Markham (city in Ontario Canada) and it has massive Chinese population and it’s doing way better there than cineplex in other cities around me 

 

just wanted to add numbers for context  

markham 191 tickets sold for tonight 4 shows 

 

48 tickets per show

 

 

Brampton my city 62 tickets sold for tonight 2 shows

31 tickets show 

 

(my respect level for people who count individual seats has gone up drastically, this shit hurts my eyes with how small seats be hahah)

I was looking at 2 night shows tonight tracking around same time for my cinema in Brampton 

 

yesterday around this time 61 tickets for 7 and 9pm shows 

 

31 tickets per show (3D)

 

tonight 301 tickets for 7 and 9pm shows 

 

151 tickets per show (3D)

 

not to mention the afternoon show which was basically had 5% occupancy I didn’t count but look less than 30 tickets yesterday, the 4pm show here got 130 tickets 

 

im excited to see the Friday number 

 

 

[Porthos]

19 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Kung Fu Panda 4 Sacramento Report [T-0] [FINAL] [3:55-4:20]

(all showtimes before 3:55pm sampled at the start of screening)

2346/20841 (11.26% sold) [+1087 tickets] [188 showtimes]

 

1.22827x Elemental at T-0                 [2.95m]

----

0.77324x GBA at T-0                         [3.93m] [adj'ed for ATP hikes since 2021]
0.59377x Sonic 2 at T-0                   [3.71m]
0.35594x Minons 2 at T-0                [3.83m]

 

Huh.

 

Guess I should have gone with those three comps instead of Elemental/Lightyear Plus A Little More. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Well live and (don't) learn!

 

====

 

Is actually interesting that Minions 2 nearly nailed it.  But I just thought that GentleMinions put too much of a thumb on the scale.  Probably should have looked more at Sonic 2 as well, but I will admit that Elemental and Wish played a strong hand in my ATP thoughts here.

 

Ah well, Q&Ds are Q&Ds for a reason.  Should have a better baseline for the next plausibly more-adult-skewing animated family movie.

[Porthos]

47 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Huh.

 

Guess I should have gone with those three comps instead of Elemental/Lightyear Plus A Little More. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Well live and (don't) learn!

 

====

 

Is actually interesting that Minions 2 nearly nailed it.  But I just thought that GentleMinions put too much of a thumb on the scale.  Probably should have looked more at Sonic 2 as well, but I will admit that Elemental and Wish played a strong hand in my ATP thoughts here.

 

Ah well, Q&Ds are Q&Ds for a reason.  Should have a better baseline for the next plausibly more-adult-skewing animated family movie.

 

Having just seen the Inside Out 2 trailer this does actually make me wonder where to place IO2 on the spectrum of family skewed animated movies.

 

On the one hand, IO2 should be targeting a younger demo than KP4.  On the other hand, nostalgia for IO is gonna be off the charts (at least before WOM/reviews kicks in).  On the third hand this is more aimed at teenagers than the Elementals and Migrations of the world.

 

I do have Toy Story 4 and Frozen 2 from waaaaaaaay back in the day.  But I consider those to be pretty much not worth much of anything nowadays.  Movie landscape, both locally  and nationally, is just too damn different to glean useful info out of any comps (or rather, I'd be massaging them so much that I might as well be looking at pig entrails for information).

 

Alluded to the problems with Lightyear the last couple of days, and besides that looks to be broadly pointing to a similar PSM to Elemental, so might as well use the one I'm more confident in.

 

So... I dunno.  Plenty of time to think about it, but it does seem to me to be closer to the Sonic 2s and KP4s of the world than the Elementals.  How much closer, I'm not as sure. 

 

Anyone have any thoughts on that now that we're getting verifiable data on KP4?

[vafrow]

16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Having just seen the Inside Out 2 trailer this does actually make me wonder where to place IO2 on the spectrum of family skewed animated movies.

 

On the one hand, IO2 should be targeting a younger demo than KP4.  On the other hand, nostalgia for IO is gonna be off the charts (at least before WOM/reviews kicks in).  On the third hand this is more aimed at teenagers than the Elementals and Migrations of the world.

 

I do have Toy Story 4 and Frozen 2 from waaaaaaaay back in the day.  But I consider those to be pretty much not worth much of anything nowadays.  Movie landscape, both locally  and nationally, is just too damn different to glean useful info out of any comps (or rather, I'd be massaging them so much that I might as well be looking at pig entrails for information).

 

Alluded to the problems with Lightyear the last couple of days, and besides that looks to be broadly pointing to a similar PSM to Elemental, so might as well use the one I'm more confident in.

 

So... I dunno.  Plenty of time to think about it, but it does seem to me to be closer to the Sonic 2s and KP4s of the world than the Elementals.  How much closer, I'm not as sure. 

 

Anyone have any thoughts on that now that we're getting verifiable data on KP4?

 

When you said in your earlier post that KFP4 will help us with older skewing animated, IO2 is the first to come to mind as where it will help.

 

That movie is going to hit a bunch of demos. 

 

Being a summer film is probably the variable that will be the biggest difference, as will be the size of the opening.

 

But just in general, we've got a lot of family movies coming out this year that KFP4 will probably be a decent comp for.

 

IO2, Despicable Me 4, Moana 2, Sonic 3. Even for Garfield, it's probably going to be one of the strongest options.

 

 

[Minnale101]

1 minute ago, vafrow said:

 

When you said in your earlier post that KFP4 will help us with older skewing animated, IO2 is the first to come to mind as where it will help.

 

That movie is going to hit a bunch of demos. 

 

Being a summer film is probably the variable that will be the biggest difference, as will be the size of the opening.

 

But just in general, we've got a lot of family movies coming out this year that KFP4 will probably be a decent comp for.

 

IO2, Despicable Me 4, Moana 2, Sonic 3. Even for Garfield, it's probably going to be one of the strongest options.

 

 

Garfield in May which is close to summer I feel like will be successful, a lot of my friends talk about it and pratt voicing Garfield and he never flops it feels like 

 

that could help as well, adults who grew up with that cat

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, vafrow said:

 

When you said in your earlier post that KFP4 will help us with older skewing animated, IO2 is the first to come to mind as where it will help.

 

That movie is going to hit a bunch of demos. 

 

Being a summer film is probably the variable that will be the biggest difference, as will be the size of the opening.

 

But just in general, we've got a lot of family movies coming out this year that KFP4 will probably be a decent comp for.

 

IO2, Despicable Me 4, Moana 2, Sonic 3. Even for Garfield, it's probably going to be one of the strongest options.

 

 

 

Pity I won't have dailies for it.  However, "knowing" that Sonic 2 is still a decent comp (and that Minions 2 will be good at the very end) helps at least somewhat.

 

(the real Trump Card for me at least is GBA ATP'd.  Love that I decided to do the dailies for that one as it still ticks all sorts of "ehhhh, maaaaaybe" boxes 2.3 years down the road)

[abracadabra1998]

On 3/6/2024 at 6:07 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses):

1.21x Wonka: $4.25 Million (21%, 69%)

1.75x Wish (TUE): $3.15 Million (27%, 65%)

1.19x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $3.68 Million (47%, 115%)

2.58x Migration: $3.72 Million (30%, 145%)

2.92x Trolls (THU): $3.8 Million (30%, 101%)

 

Average: $3.72 Million

 

Still, based on my numbers, let's go with $3.7 Million, +/- 0.3. Maybe too bullish looking at others' numbers, but I gotta agree with @Porthos's mindset: I'll stick to my own guns!

Sticking to my guns worked out alright 😄

 

Trolls comp was spot on to the dot, Migration super close too. Wish with TUE ATP and Wonka with PLF ATP kinda cancel each other out a bit, starting to feel pretty good about my family/animated comps in this market.

 

For Inside Out 2, I have a feeling the early sales are gonna blow KFP4 out of the water, there was some early Panda interest from grown-ups for sure but it was a bit of a slowburner and then we saw the family walk-ups. Maybe I’m totally wrong but it seems to me the grown-up interest will be much stronger and it will be more frontloaded. Same with Minions 2, the grown-up interest surged later on I believe. Still gonna use Panda as a comp but I’m expecting it to start hella high and drop as sales go on

[el sid]

I always like these small surprise hits and maybe this is one of them.
Cabrini, counted today for today (ca. at noon here in Germany):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 47 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 218 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): (6 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 28 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 15 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 55 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 30 (4 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 503.

Up modest 11.5% since yesterday. Interesting jump-behavior. Normally (partly) religious films have quite good numbers right from the start and then (almost) no single ticket is booked anymore. In this case the biggest jump happened in an action-affine theater (the AMC in NY) where it jumped from yesterday 13 tickets to now 47 and also at Lincoln Square 13 it looked good - really strange .

Sound of Freedom (14.2M OD, with pre-previews?) had on Tuesday for Tuesday 1.189 sold tickets = 42.3% = ca. 6M true Friday for Cabrini. Sound not so much different than other reports here but also a bit too good, no? I mean, Jim Caviezel is no stanger and SoF had a lot of reviews already some hours after the release and here I see nothing so let's see.

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Sticking to my guns worked out alright 😄

 

Trolls comp was spot on to the dot, Migration super close too. Wish with TUE ATP and Wonka with PLF ATP kinda cancel each other out a bit, starting to feel pretty good about my family/animated comps in this market.

 

For Inside Out 2, I have a feeling the early sales are gonna blow KFP4 out of the water, there was some early Panda interest from grown-ups for sure but it was a bit of a slowburner and then we saw the family walk-ups. Maybe I’m totally wrong but it seems to me the grown-up interest will be much stronger and it will be more frontloaded. Same with Minions 2, the grown-up interest surged later on I believe. Still gonna use Panda as a comp but I’m expecting it to start hella high and drop as sales go on

 

AtSV comes into play, perhaps?  Depending on the level of up front interest, which should be pretty high, think that could be the most natural if there is a Big First Day.

 

ETA::: Talking sales pattern not so much sales level here, BTW.

Edited March 8 by Porthos

[Relevation]

49 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Having just seen the Inside Out 2 trailer this does actually make me wonder where to place IO2 on the spectrum of family skewed animated movies.

 

On the one hand, IO2 should be targeting a younger demo than KP4.  On the other hand, nostalgia for IO is gonna be off the charts (at least before WOM/reviews kicks in).  On the third hand this is more aimed at teenagers than the Elementals and Migrations of the world.

 

I do have Toy Story 4 and Frozen 2 from waaaaaaaay back in the day.  But I consider those to be pretty much not worth much of anything nowadays.  Movie landscape, both locally  and nationally, is just too damn different to glean useful info out of any comps (or rather, I'd be massaging them so much that I might as well be looking at pig entrails for information).

 

Alluded to the problems with Lightyear the last couple of days, and besides that looks to be broadly pointing to a similar PSM to Elemental, so might as well use the one I'm more confident in.

 

So... I dunno.  Plenty of time to think about it, but it does seem to me to be closer to the Sonic 2s and KP4s of the world than the Elementals.  How much closer, I'm not as sure. 

 

Anyone have any thoughts on that now that we're getting verifiable data on KP4?

What about The Super Mario Bros. Movie? That also skewed very young overall but it had super broad appeal with teenagers and parents like what Inside Out 2 will probably have, plus it was starting and finishing huge the whole time so it wouldn’t be useless the first few days like a KFP4 or Minions 2 comp would be.

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Relevation said:

What about The Super Mario Bros. Movie? That also skewed very young overall but it had super broad appeal with teenagers and parents like what Inside Out 2 will probably have, plus it was starting and finishing huge the whole time so it wouldn’t be useless the first few days like a KFP4 or Minions 2 comp would be.

 

No previews = no track from Yours Truly. 🙂

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, Relevation said:

What about The Super Mario Bros. Movie? That also skewed very young overall but it had super broad appeal with teenagers and parents like what Inside Out 2 will probably have, plus it was starting and finishing huge the whole time so it wouldn’t be useless the first few days like a KFP4 or Minions 2 comp would be.

 

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

No previews = no track from Yours Truly. 🙂

 

That is, SMB was an All Day release, and while we do have a couple of people who tracked it (those brave brave souls), All Day Releases are just a different animal than preview releases, if only because of the added matinee/early bird showings.

[filmlover]

Don't think this was posted earlier:

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2024’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 3/7/24)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Distributor
3/15/2024	Arthur The King	$11,000,000 – $16,000,000	$33,000,000 – $64,000,000	Lionsgate
3/15/2024	Love Lies Bleeding (Wide Expansion)			A24
3/22/2024	One Life			Bleecker Street
3/22/2024	The American Society of Magical Negroes			Focus Features
3/22/2024	Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire	$35,000,000 – $47,000,000	$96,000,000 – $138,000,000	Sony / Columbia Pictures
3/22/2024	Luca			Disney / Pixar
3/29/2024	Asphalt City			Vertical & Roadside Attractions
3/29/2024	Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire	$43,000,000 – $50,000,000	$95,000,000 – $140,000,000	Warner Bros. Pictures
3/29/2024	In the Land of Saints and Sinners			Samuel Goldwyn Films
4/5/2024	The First Omen	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000	$20,000,000 – $34,400,000	20th Century Studios
4/5/2024	Monkey Man	$16,000,000 – $25,000,000	$45,000,000 – $75,000,000	Universal Pictures

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast: THE FIRST OMEN and MONKEY MAN - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

[kayumanggi]

 

[TheFlatLannister]

Getting $14M Friday for KFP4 right now using Miami comps. Currently sold 4136 seats for evening showings 

Edited March 8 by TheFlatLannister

[Grand Cine]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

Having just seen the Inside Out 2 trailer this does actually make me wonder where to place IO2 on the spectrum of family skewed animated movies.

 

On the one hand, IO2 should be targeting a younger demo than KP4.  On the other hand, nostalgia for IO is gonna be off the charts (at least before WOM/reviews kicks in).  On the third hand this is more aimed at teenagers than the Elementals and Migrations of the world.

 

I do have Toy Story 4 and Frozen 2 from waaaaaaaay back in the day.  But I consider those to be pretty much not worth much of anything nowadays.  Movie landscape, both locally  and nationally, is just too damn different to glean useful info out of any comps (or rather, I'd be massaging them so much that I might as well be looking at pig entrails for information).

 

Alluded to the problems with Lightyear the last couple of days, and besides that looks to be broadly pointing to a similar PSM to Elemental, so might as well use the one I'm more confident in.

 

So... I dunno.  Plenty of time to think about it, but it does seem to me to be closer to the Sonic 2s and KP4s of the world than the Elementals.  How much closer, I'm not as sure. 

 

Anyone have any thoughts on that now that we're getting verifiable data on KP4?

I think Minions 2 is the best comparaison because ( with Mario) we are the best animation movies in box office post COVID ( i don't count Spiderverse because it's also a superhero movie). Also Minions 2 with the trend in Tiktok has a big teenager representation ( 13-17 years old represent 34% of the audience in OW) . Also the problem with Lightyear that i think they don't make the same mistake is the tone of the movie , the trailer sound like more adult than 90% of the genre so he forget the younger target and this hurts the Box office for sure .

 

To conclude, to be big , Disney should marketing the movie for young people , teenagers and family in general with the nostalgia effect and different elements from all the demo target . And Despicable Me 4 will make this also 3 weeks after

[vafrow]

15 minutes ago, Relevation said:

What about The Super Mario Bros. Movie? That also skewed very young overall but it had super broad appeal with teenagers and parents like what Inside Out 2 will probably have, plus it was starting and finishing huge the whole time so it wouldn’t be useless the first few days like a KFP4 or Minions 2 comp would be.

 

Mario was a Wednesday start with no previews. It becomes a harder comp.

 

Minions 2 would probably work well. I can still see some challenges with different levels of school closures, but it's better than some of the other alternatives.

[vafrow]

2 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

I think Minions 2 is the best comparaison because ( with Mario) we are the best animation movies in box office post COVID ( i don't count Spiderverse because it's also a superhero movie). Also Minions 2 with the trend in Tiktok has a big teenager representation ( 13-17 years old represent 34% of the audience in OW) . Also the problem with Lightyear that i think they don't make the same mistake is the tone of the movie , the trailer sound like more adult than 90% of the genre so he forget the younger target and this hurts the Box office for sure .

 

To conclude, to be big , Disney should marketing the movie for young people , teenagers and family in general with the nostalgia effect and different elements from all the demo target . And Despicable Me 4 will make this also 3 weeks after

The marketing for Inside Out 2 should be that for anyone dealing with anxiety, a movie ticket is a lot cheaper than therapy.