The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[charlie Jatinder]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Why this like of like caveat. Do we have more theaters showing Wolverine now or is it other way around(theaters that existed previously are no longer around).

He is in middle of building a new tracker. Guess he manually did or partial automated the best 9 locs.

[crazymoviekid]

Furiosa:

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 7 Tickets

Theater 2: 18 Tickets

 

KotPotA: $4.17M

Civil War: $5.00M

Dune: Part II: $3.79M

Oppenheimer: $.98M

JW:C4: $2.25M

Avatar 2: $2.24M

Top Gun 2: $3.57M

 

Best between $3.5M-$5M for now

[crazymoviekid]

Garfield: 

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 5 Tickets 

Theater 2: 2 Tickets

 

IF: $1.53M

KFP4: $1.48M

Trolls 3: $1.73M

TLM: $.43M

 

Looking around $1.5M-$1.75M. Not stellar, but it's kid -driven animated. Thursday isn't a real rush. 

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC1 Previews(T-4)

Garfield - 5728/324232 81898.14 2038 shows +1215 ( +2 days)

Furiosa -  35009/413530 720401.08 2085 shows +3355 ( just under a day of data)

 

Furiosa is accelerating at the right time. Garfield is still pacing similar to what I saw 2 days ago. Just awful number from the movie. Around what Trolls did late last year and that burned way more through its early shows which was like 12 days before its release. 

MTC1 Previews(T-3)

Garfield - 6829/352306 97581.35 2284 shows +1101 

Furiosa - 39103/447177 797486.68 2330 shows +4094

 

Really meh increase for both the movies. Could be the impact of Wolverine PS. Let us see how things go tomorrow. 

[abracadabra1998]

On 5/19/2024 at 11:17 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Furiosa (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	114	298	942	20331	4.63

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		816	240	86.62
MTC1:		571	176	60.62
Alamo:		145	34	15.39
Other chains:		226	88	23.99

 

Comps:

1.04x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (w/ EA): $6.84 Million

1.74x Fall Guy (w/ EA): $5.48 Million

0.85x BoSS: $4.86 Million (17 theaters)

0.71x MI7 (TUE): $4.98 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $5.54 Million

 

Still doing quite well here, we shall see what this final week looks like!

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Furiosa (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	144	179	1121	23723	4.73

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		955	139	85.19
MTC1:		649	78	57.89
Alamo:		165	20	14.72
Other chains:		307	81	27.39

 

Comps:

1.05x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (w/ EA): $6.92 Million

1.79x Fall Guy (w/ EA): $5.65 Million

0.84x BoSS: $4.85 Million (17 theaters)

0.75x MI7 (TUE): $5.25 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $5.67 Million

 

Still kickin it

[charlie Jatinder]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC1 Previews(T-3)

Garfield - 6829/352306 97581.35 2284 shows +1101 

Furiosa - 39103/447177 797486.68 2330 shows +4094

 

Really meh increase for both the movies. Could be the impact of Wolverine PS. Let us see how things go tomorrow. 

Please do Friday for both tomorrow, if possible.

[abracadabra1998]

On 5/19/2024 at 11:23 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Garfield Movie (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	104	38	106	13149	0.81

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		6	6	5.66
MTC1:		54	23	50.94
Alamo:		10	8	9.43
Other chains:		42	7	39.62

 

Thursday comps:

0.82x IF: $1.43 Million

0.29x Kung Fu Panda 4: $1.09 Million

0.79x Migration: $1.19 Million

0.27x Wonka: $940k

0.8x Trolls 3: $1.04 Million

 

Average: $1.14 Million

 

This could have a good late surge since EA has been sucking away some pre-sales up until this morning, so let's see if this bounces up a little. Not impressed at all at this stage though, not seeing the break-out some are anticipating.

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Garfield Movie (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	125	23	129	15620	0.83

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		8	2	6.2
MTC1:		70	16	54.26
Alamo:		15	5	11.63
Other chains:		44	2	34.11

 

Thursday comps:

0.81x IF: $1.42 Million

0.29x Kung Fu Panda 4: $1.09 Million

0.72x Migration: $1.07 Million

0.28x Wonka: $980k

0.83x Trolls 3: $1.08 Million

 

Average: $1.13 Million

 

I think people that are expecting this to break out like it seems like it is doing so overseas are in for a rude awakening come this weekend  

 

[HummingLemon496]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

Please do Friday for both tomorrow, if possible.

What OW are you expecting for DPW if it's a nice 90/A?

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Please do Friday for both tomorrow, if possible.

Too much focus on Wolverine today 🙂 Will take a look at Garfield and Furiosa friday tomorrow daytime. 

[abracadabra1998]

Minnesota Previews:

 

Deadpool x Wolverine (T-66, Day 1):

Day: T-66	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	298	2398	2398	44821	5.35

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		1739	1739	72.52
MTC1:		1057	1057	44.08
Alamo:		198	198	8.26
Other chains:		1143	1143	47.66

 

Day 1 Comps (not serious ones, they're just the ones I got):

4.17x The Marvels: $27.49 Million

2.14x Dune Part 2*: $24.14 Million

 

*combing day 1 of EA sales and day 1 of previews sales, which I know is cheating a little bit, but it doesn't make much sense to do it any other way either

 

Probably will just update once a week on Thursdays for the next 30 or so days, this is a truly annoying pre-sales window they're giving us here

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

What OW are you expecting for DPW if it's a nice 90/A?

Shawn Levy has never had a 90 RT as a director. Free Guy has been his best received movie. Otherwise he has been mediocre. His movies are mostly rotten. 

 

Cinemascore on the other hand is about meeting Fan expectations on OD. Definitely possible. Only reason why fan driven movies have meh CS is if there is any Bait and Switch in the marketing. 

[Rorschach]

Furiosa - Monday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

3 IMAX showings: 41/1,164

2 XD showings: 8/476

6 2D showings: 7/606

Total: 56/2,246 (2.5% sold)

 

Comps:

Apes (w/o EA): $4.12 mil

 

Friday:

4 IMAX showings: 21/1,552

4 XD showings: 22/952

8 2D showings: 17/808

Total: 60/3,312 (1.8% sold)

 

Comps:

Apes (w/o EA): $10.26 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 116/5,558 (2.1% sold)

 

Comps:

Apes (w/o EA): $15 mil

 

 

Garfield - Monday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

1 3D showing: 1/78

10 2D showings: 28/925
Total: 29/1,003 (2.9% sold)

 

Comp:

IF: $1.27 mil

 

Friday:

2 3D showings: 12/156

13 2D showings: 20/1,274

Total: 32/1,430 (2.2% sold)

 

Comp:

IF: $5.14 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 61/2,433 (2.5% sold)

 

Comp:

IF: $6.76 mil

Edited May 21 by Rorschach

[keysersoze123]

12 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1 Previews - 65676/1211640 1294901.38 7419 shows

 

Its really good start. It should finish the day ahead of Ant 3 I think. Sales will taper off after fanboy rush. Let me see where things are end of the day. 

 

Edit: this does not have fan shows which seem to be one PLF show at 3PM. I will add that to my next update. Should not make a huge difference at this scale. 

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1 Previews OD sales - 116273/1243211 2207789.99 7590 shows

 

It was at just under 101K at around 215PM and so excellent growth even post that. It did finish ahead of Wakanda and around 20K below Thor 4. Of course it has the longer cycle. Let us see how things go. FYI this includes fan shows which was not there in my initial update. That alone sold 18K+ just in initial check around noon PST. 

Edited May 21 by keysersoze123

[Legion Again]

Gross wise will be much closer to Thor than BP2 at mtc1, especially at full 24hr mark. Very healthy start but the big wildcard for now is how much the extra 30-40 days will play in to things (my personal guess, not much). Updated outlook for now is previews ~31-37, OW ~160-195. Don’t think much meaningful change/update until t-21 or even really t-14ish

[Grand Cine]

22 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1 Previews OD sales - 116273/1243211 2207789.99 7590 shows

 

It was at just under 101K at around 215PM and so excellent growth even post that. It did finish ahead of Wakanda and around 20K below Thor 4. Of course it has the longer cycle. Let us see how things go. FYI this includes fan shows which was not there in my initial update. That alone sold 18K+ just in initial check around noon PST. 

So around 95K juste for previews so around 5,5M already . I think with 2 months to go , 20M previews are locked , now the objectif is to be better than BP2 and Thor 4 ( 28 and 29 M ). So around 490K-510K . I think it's really possible to be passed unless WOM and reviews are horrible .

 

170-180M OW for me at this point .

[charlie Jatinder]

.

Edited May 21 by charlie Jatinder

[Boxofficerules]

$360 million opening weekend.

[charlie Jatinder]

MCU MTC 1 24 Hours

 

DSitMoM ~ 210K (T-29)

Thor 4 ~ 137K (T-24)
DP&W ~ 120K+ (T-66)
BP 2 ~ 110K (T-38)

 

AM3 ~ 88K (T-30)
GoTG3 ~ 76K (T-30)

 

At T-30 guess DP&W would have been around 160-170K type.

[Legion Again]

8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

MCU MTC 1 24 Hours

 

DSitMoM ~ 210K (T-29)

Thor 4 ~ 137K (T-24)
DP&W ~ 120K+ (T-66)
BP 2 ~ 110K (T-38)

 

AM3 ~ 88K (T-30)
GoTG3 ~ 76K (T-30)

 

At T-30 guess DP&W would have been around 160-170K type.

If we treated this as equivalent to ~165k t-30 start then that would likely be ~$6.8M all chains gross for th (crude approx without mtc2/3, but oh well), gives about 35M with 2021-22 formulas. So sure, perhaps that will turn out to be good approximation 

[Grand Cine]

31 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

MCU MTC 1 24 Hours

 

DSitMoM ~ 210K (T-29)

Thor 4 ~ 137K (T-24)
DP&W ~ 120K+ (T-66)
BP 2 ~ 110K (T-38)

 

AM3 ~ 88K (T-30)
GoTG3 ~ 76K (T-30)

 

At T-30 guess DP&W would have been around 160-170K type.

 

 

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1 Previews OD sales - 116273/1243211 2207789.99 7590 shows

 

It was at just under 101K at around 215PM and so excellent growth even post that. It did finish ahead of Wakanda and around 20K below Thor 4. Of course it has the longer cycle. Let us see how things go. FYI this includes fan shows which was not there in my initial update. That alone sold 18K+ just in initial check around noon PST. 

 

Just for fun , it's almost already at the same level of previews of The Marvel :

 

Previews Final - 132941/788754 2450558.49 4295 shows +40041