The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[emoviefan]

3 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bad Boys 4	T-11	Jax	5	56	6	132	9,816	1.34%
		Phx	6	39	6	98	7,802	1.26%
		Ral	8	44	9	103	6,582	1.56%
	Total		19	139	21	333	24,200	1.38%
Bad Boys 4 (EA)	T-10	Jax	3	3	2	12	855	1.40%
Watchers	T-11	Jax	5	21	11	11	1,458	0.75%
		Phx	6	20	15	15	2,182	0.69%
		Ral	7	21	3	3	2,142	0.14%
	Total		18	62	29	29	5,782	0.50%

 

Bad Boys (Total) T-11 adjusted comps

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .404x (3.57m)

 - F9 - .463x (3.49m)

 - Furiosa - missed

 - Ghostbusters FE - .95x (4.17m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .618x (5.57m)

 - Kingdom of Apes - .799x (5.38m)

 - John Wick 4 - .374x (3.33m)

 

Watchers T-11 adjusted comps

 - Abigail - 1.115x (1.115m)

 - Strangers - .707x (849k)

 - Last Voyage - 1.208x (1.05m)

Still not sure what a good comp for BB ROD is except for the previous movie. It just feels like it's own franchise. Esp as walkup friendly as it is.

[ZeroHour]

2 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Still not sure what a good comp for BB ROD is except for the previous movie. It just feels like it's own franchise. Esp as walkup friendly as it is.

I’m not sure it’s helpful to keep harping on this. People are probably using the best comps they have. We’ll know the full story on the walk ups in a couple weeks. 

[YM!]

18 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Inside Out 2 MTC1

Previews - 14011/617207 269585.33 3158 shows

Friday - 11919/1025347 214554.05 5256 shows

 

Really good this far out for sure. 

 

Did a bit of quick math in following some comparisons for IO2 using your earlier MTC1 data out of boredom again and pace is pretty good. 
 

 

Elemental MTC1 (T-20)

Previews - 3376/299917 53642.64 2119 shows +517

Friday - 3247/481069 47153.81 3251 shows +762

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1 T-20

Previews - 4710/306909 69980.52 2016 shows +1040

Friday - 4405/452087 64904.23 2841 shows +1002

 

Mermaid MTC1

Wednesday - 9277/35113 202836.99 154 shows

Previews(T-18) - 28579/908358 505434.25 5533 shows 

 

Wish MTC1 (T-19)

Early Shows(11/18) - 1254/22152 14477.12 188 shows

Previews (11/21) - 4801/212209 73574.29 1307 shows

 

 

9.96m Previews if IO2 follows Elemental

11.45m previews if IO2 follows KFP4

5.32m Previews if IO2 follows Wish with EA

5.25m Previews if IO2 follows Wish minus EA

4.63m Previews if IO2 follows TLM minus EA

3.81m previews if IO2 follows TLM with EA

 

6.74m preview average. The same caveats apply (IO2 should have higher ATP than the other animations due to skew somewhat older and having PLFs but having lower ATP than TLM as that skews older and likely has more of audience to buy upfront, and Wish being on Discount Tuesday muddies things up) but the important thing is that pace healthy and gainer ground against its comparisons. Feel like tracking is right on the money of 75-85m OW but could grow stronger if pace continues strong and reviews are strong.

Edited May 26 by YM!

[emoviefan]

5 minutes ago, ZeroHour said:

I’m not sure it’s helpful to keep harping on this. People are probably using the best comps they have. We’ll know the full story on the walk ups in a couple weeks. 

I am not being critical at all. I would like to know . That's why I wonder. That was my point. This is a hard movie to comp.

[vafrow]

46 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

I am not being critical at all. I would like to know . That's why I wonder. That was my point. This is a hard movie to comp.

 

Every film has unique elements going for it. That's why trackers are using a variety of what they have at their disposal.

 

Even if there's a BB4L comp available, a 2020 comp is challenging to use for a variety of reasons. 

 

I'm using HG: BoSS because it's versatile. It's a franchise that's not too front loaded and lands in that middle tier for opening previews. It's not too dependent on specific formats like IMAX.

 

It's just a middle ground comp, and one of the first ones with the catchment area that I'm focused on right now.

 

And while we're expecting good walk ups for Ride or Die, you don't want to solely use late growth comps, as you're tipping the scale towards a predetermined outcome.

 

I try to use a mixture of films that have enough connective tissue.

 

Also, I throw an average out there. Mainly because I noticed user BOfficestats compiles it in their Reddit summaries, so, I figure I may as well do the math since I have it Excel already. People can and should grab what stats they see as most relevant though for their own personal predictions.

[Pinacolada]

The Bikeriders tickets are now on sale. It's actually sold some around me.

 

It does seem like Focus is giving it kind of a shitty release though. Small screens. Definitely no PLFs, which 20th Century Studios was gonna get it Dolby back when they had it.

 

There's 3 theaters really near me. Only 1 of them has this on sale as of now, though the other 2 theaters may come later?

Edited May 26 by Pinacolada

[emoviefan]

14 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

The Bikeriders tickets are now on sale. It's actually sold some around me.

 

It does seem like Focus is giving it kind of a shitty release though. Small screens. Definitely no PLFs, which 20th Century Studios was gonna get it Dolby back when they had it.

 

There's 3 theaters really near me. Only 1 of them has this on sale as of now, though the other 2 theaters may come later?

Maybe this can surprise. But for a movie like this what is a surprise anymore 10 million?

[Pinacolada]

1 minute ago, emoviefan said:

Maybe this can surprise. But for a movie like this what is a surprise anymore 10 million?

I'd be happy with anything over double digits, yeah

[whatsupdoc]

On 5/24/2024 at 8:50 PM, keysersoze123 said:

That would make it the favorite to win the summer. I am not buying this plus LOL this is from Quorum. That site is only good to be ridiculed. I think DM4 will open below Minions 2 for sure. 

except that The Quorum was spot on with FURIOSA back in February.  

https://thequorum.com/whats-going-on-with-furiosa/

 

 

 

Edited May 27 by whatsupdoc

[Flip]

On 5/25/2024 at 12:47 PM, Flip said:

Inside Out 2 (T-19)

8 showtimes/72 tix sold (+13)

 

Deadpool 3 (T-61)

 

30 showtimes/597 tix sold (+155) 

*not sure where six showtimes went.

 

Bad Boys 4 (T-12)

 

11 showtimes/61 tix sold

 

was busy for Garfield and Furiosa previews

Inside Out 2 (T-18)

8 showtimes/81 tix sold (+9)

 

Bad Boys 4 (T-11)

 

11 showtimes/62 tix sold (+1)

[Mojoguy]

What's going on with DM4? Are they waiting until IO2 is released before putting their tickets on sale?

[filmlover]

I've actually already seen some ads for The Bikeriders. If it makes anything over $20M I'm guessing the studio would be pleased enough.

[misterpepp]

Daddio on sale May 31

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

What's going on with DM4? Are they waiting until IO2 is released before putting their tickets on sale?

 

According to the pre-sales master doc, they go on sale on June 5th.

 

  

[Porthos]

On 5/26/2024 at 12:16 AM, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-61 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	231	28823	32664	3841	11.76%

 

Total Showings Added Today	12
Total Seats Added Today	1077
Total Seats Sold Today	93

 

Day 6 Comps

	%		Sold Day 6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	44.75		253	8584		0/329	32332/40916	20.98%		21117	18.19%		16.11m
L&T	67.62		155	5680		0/228	25920/31600	17.97%		16962	22.64%		19.61m
BP2	84.62		160	4539		0/294	32483/37022	12.26%		16800	22.86%		23.69m
AM3	108.87		107	3528		0/235	29016/32544	10.84%		10475	36.67%		19.05m
GOTG3	145.22		88	2645		0/206	27026/29671	8.91%		10750	35.73%		25.41m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

Regal:        797/12927  [6.17% sold]
Matinee:   NOT YET COMPILED
3D:            343/6802  [5.04% | 8.93% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        2162/11040  [19.58% | 56.29% of all tickets sold]

---
CM EQUIV        75 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    76 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

 

===

 

Tomorrow will be the last day of Day-x comps, and the last day of any comp blocks for quite a while.  Still toying about what info to provide, but might fall back to the ol' standby of % of final sold for various MCU flicks.

 

Will continue to provide daily updates as long as the daily sales warrant posting them.

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-60 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	231	28713	32661	3948	12.09%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

107

 

Day 7 Comps

	%		Sold Day 7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	44.97		195	8779		0/329	32131/40910	21.46%		21117	18.70%		16.19m
L&T	67.19		196	5876		0/228	25724/31600	18.59%		16962	23.28%		19.48m
BP2	85.49		79	4618		0/294	32404/37022	12.47%		16800	23.50%		23.94m
AM3	108.91		97	3625		0/235	28901/32526	11.14%		10475	37.69%		19.06m
GOTG3	146.88		43	2688		0/206	26983/29671	9.06%		10750	36.73%		25.70m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       825/12927  [6.38% sold]
Matinee:    NOT YET COMPILED
3D:            345/6802  [5.07% | 8.74% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        2213/11037  [20.05% | 56.05% of all tickets sold]
----
CM EQUIV    99 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    105 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

[Porthos]

On 5/26/2024 at 12:15 AM, Porthos said:

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	158	23755	24273	518	2.13%

 

Total Showings Added Today	5
Total Seats Added Today	222
Total Seats Sold Today	29

 

T-19 Comps            SHITTY-ASS COMPS EDITION - DON'T TAKE TOO SERIOUSLY

	%		Sold T-19	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	152.35		8	340		0/74	11108/11448	2.97%		3951	13.11%		9.52m
Minion 2	201.56		22	257		0/165	24943/25200	1.02%		6591	7.86%		21.67m
NOPE	204.74		5	253		0/84	13445/13698	1.85%		3822	13.55%		13.10m
Shaz 2	151.46		9	342		0/109	17351/17693	1.93%		1663	31.15%		5.15m
TLM	46.88		73	1105		0/153	21474/22579	4.89%		6561	7.90%		4.83m
Barbie	36.35		82	1425		0/96	11202/12627	11.29%		12077	4.29%		8.22m
Wonka	292.66		9	177		0/113	19110/19287	0.92%		1975	26.23%		10.24m
Aqua 2	163.92		20	316		0/101	16472/16788	1.88%		2629	19.70%		7.38m
GBFE	175.59		47	295		0/114	18603/18898	1.56%		2197	23.58%		8.25m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     119/10075  [1.18% sold]
Matinee:    41/2674  [1.53% | 7.92% of all tickets sold]
3D:            42/3852  [1.09% | 8.11% of all tickets sold]
PLF:         215/9686  [2.22% | 41.51% of all tickets sold]

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	158	23742	24273	531	2.19%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

13

 

T-18 Comps            SHITTY-ASS COMPS EDITION - DON'T TAKE TOO SERIOUSLY

	%		Sold T-18	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	141.98		34	374		0/74	11074/11448	3.27%		3951	13.44%		8.87m
Minion 2	181.23		36	293		0/165	24907/25200	1.16%		6591	8.06%		19.48m
NOPE	206.61		4	257		0/84	13438/13695	1.88%		3822	13.89%		13.22m
Shaz 2	148.74		15	357		0/109	17336/17693	2.02%		1663	31.93%		5.06m
TLM	45.78		55	1160		0/153	21416/22576	5.14%		6561	8.09%		4.71m
Barbie	36.20		42	1467		0/96	11160/12627	11.62%		12077	4.40%		8.18m
Wonka	285.48		9	186		0/113	19101/19287	0.96%		1975	26.89%		9.99m
Aqua 2	154.36		28	344		0/101	16444/16788	2.05%		2629	20.20%		6.95m
GBFE	161.89		33	328		0/114	18567/18895	1.74%		2197	24.17%		7.61m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     119/10075  [1.18% sold]
Matinee:    45/2674  [1.68% | 8.47% of all tickets sold]
3D:            42/3852  [1.09% | 7.91% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        220/9686  [2.27% | 41.43% of all tickets sold]

[charlie Jatinder]

On 5/24/2024 at 1:08 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MiniTC2 T-63 Days (4 days on sale)

 

Previews - 6768/83465 (318 showings) $101K

 

Comps

1.73x GoTG3 - $30.3M

1.20x Black Panther - $34.3M

0.86x Thor 4  - $25.5M

 

Nearly 300 sales day vs ~260 by Black Panther & ~200 of GOTG3. 

 

Another brilliant day. Given the length of sales window, comps be falling off but they have remained steady for first 4 days. 

Deadpool & Wolverine MiniTC2 T-60 Days (7 days on sale)

 

Previews - 7262/83467 (318 showings) $109K

 

Comps

1.67x GoTG3 (T-25 days) - $29.2M

1.18x Black Panther (T-32 days) - $33.7M

0.82x Thor 4 (T-18 days) - $23.8M

 

Will freeze comps at T-17 days, whenever they reach there.

 

Moving along well. Target of 8.2K by T-50 days.

Edited May 27 by charlie Jatinder

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Bad Boys Ride or Die, T-12 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 36

New Sales: 4

Growth: 13%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.1

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 1/3

Early Evening: 29/7

Late Evening: 6/7

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 1/7

IMAX: 11/6

VIP: 24/4

 

Comps

0.878x KOTPOTA for $4.4M

0.305x HG:BoSS for $1.8M

0.750x GB:FE for $3.5M

 

Average: $3.2M

 

Ghostbusters and Apes both went up in comps, but I didn't have Hunger Games included, so it's brought the average down. Still, its growing at a steady pace.

 

Bad Boys Ride or Die, T-11 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 36

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.1

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 1/3

Early Evening: 29/7

Late Evening: 6/7

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 1/7

IMAX: 11/6

VIP: 24/4

 

Comps

0.706x KOTPOTA for $3.5M

0.273x HG:BoSS for $1.6M

0.655x GB:FE for $3.1M

 

Average: $2.7M

 

Zero sales day when all comps seemed to have done well. Not a great result.

 

Note: This isn't a holiday weekend in Canada, so that doesn't explain the slow sales. Hopefully it's just an anomaly. This has been very steady to date.

[emoviefan]

3 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Bad Boys Ride or Die, T-11 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 36

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.1

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 1/3

Early Evening: 29/7

Late Evening: 6/7

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 1/7

IMAX: 11/6

VIP: 24/4

 

Comps

0.706x KOTPOTA for $3.5M

0.273x HG:BoSS for $1.6M

0.655x GB:FE for $3.1M

 

Average: $2.7M

 

Zero sales day when all comps seemed to have done well. Not a great result.

 

Note: This isn't a holiday   in Canada, so that doesn't explain the slow sales. Hopefully it's just an anomaly. This has been very steady to date.

Great. One thing this has going for it is the budget is only 90 million same as For Life. So even if it falls down at the end as part of the general audience mailaise right now and only opens to 35-40 or something with good WOM and no competition for it's audience for awhile it will be fine. It would just be nice if it broke out and I have already talked about the walkup thing too much.

[Unfitclock]

How are sales looking today for any of the movies if anyone’s looking