The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[kayumanggi]

 

[ThomasNicole]

Sales does indicate 80-90M for Beetlejuice imo

 

Hopefully reviews out of Venice will be good this time lol

 

Not that it need huge acclaim, 70’s on RT should be good enough

Edited August 15 by ThomasNicole

[AniNate]

Wonder if Coraline could break $100mil lifetime with this rerelease

[vafrow]

Looking at Coraline across MTC4, it's got 117 showtimes across 55 locations (the chain has about 160 locations across Canada).

 

Basically, all early evening showtimes appear at near sellout levels. Matinee and late evening are probably averaging about 50-70% on average from my poking around.

 

In my usual sample, it's only playing in one of the five theatres I track. A rough count of it has it actually doing better in sales than what Romulus was at during my morning count. And Romulus is overindexing by all indication.

 

 

 

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[TheFlatLannister]

20 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

ALIEN: ROMULUS

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
626	7819	129704	6.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1041

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

88

 

COMPS

T-1

(2.023x) of Furiosa $7.10M

(0.681x) of Dune 2 $6.34M

Comps AVG: $6.72M

 

Excellent final push. Would surely think $6.5M+ and has a good shot at $7M previews 

FLORIDA 

ALIEN: ROMULUS

 

Thursday 

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
626	9959	129704	7.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 2:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2140

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-0

(1.953x) of Furiosa $6.83M

(0.730x) of Dune 2 $6.79M

Comps AVG: $6.81M

 

All comps seem to be converging around $6.8M. I'll go with $7M previews 

[Ryan C]

On 8/14/2024 at 3:40 AM, Ryan C said:

 

Alien: Romulus

 

T-1

 

Thursday: 4,342 Seats Sold (Including EA Showings)

 

A 11.79% Increase From Yesterday

 

Taken as of 3:30AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Not much more to say compared to last time. I'll try to track this one for the next two days to see if there are any potential signs of strong walk-up business. 

 

Not to be pessimistic, but I'm honestly now at the point where I could see this film hitting a wide range of ranges. It could be in the Alien: Covenant range ($35M-$40M), the Prometheus range ($50M-$55M), or somewhere in between that. 

 

I'm still betting that this has the highest opening for an Alien movie (not adjusted for inflation), but like I said last time, I'm not expecting this to blow up to a $60M or $70M opening. 

 

Alien: Romulus

 

T-0

 

Thursday: 5,895 Seats Sold (Including EA Showings)

 

A 35.7% Increase From Last Time

 

Taken as of 3:10PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Due to some personal stuff, I wasn't able to track this one last night. I made sure to at least do it right before the first preview screenings started and judging by these sales, walk-up business should be solid throughout the weekend. 

 

Still not expecting this to blow past tracking projections, but the Prometheus range ($50M-$55M) is looking like a fairly attainable goal right now for this movie. 

[abracadabra1998]

On 8/4/2024 at 3:55 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Alien: Romulus (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 23 theaters	103	130	545	17314	3.15

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		424	96	77.8
MTC1:		402	86	73.76
Other chains:		143	44	26.24

 

Comps:

0.94x Twisters (w/ EA): $10.09 Million

Quiet Place Day One: Missed

1.19x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (w/ EA): $7.84 Million

1.72x Fall Guy (w/ EA): $5.42 Million

1.72x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $7.76 Million (17 theaters)

 

I don't know, what @Eric is Trapped did register with me and is making me apprehensive that this will be very pre-sale heavy, but at the same time it's horror which is usually the opposite of that. Can't ignore that these pre-sales are looking awesome. Maybe @M37 can chime in? Any thoughts on good comps and what the trajectory for this will look like?

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Alien: Romulus (T-1 Hour):

Day: T-1 Hour	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	160	1965	2510	23803	10.54

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		1623	1199	64.66
MTC1:		1358	956	54.1
Other chains:		1152	1009	45.9

 

T-1 Hour Comps:

0.95x Twisters: $7.58 Million

2.8x Fall Guy: $6.57 Million

4.55x Monkey Man: $6.37 Million

3.79x Argylle: $6.44 Million

 

Been out for the last few days due to some... *emotional turmoil* (we'll put it that way), my apologies!

 

Hard to extrapolate or make a prediction without knowing how it's been growing this last week, but yeah anything between $6.5-7.5 Million I can see. Quiet Place and Bad Boys comps spit out way bigger values but I don't expect this to underindex here as much. 

 

Feels good to do this again, tracking has become somewhat of self-care for me  

[DAJK]

The fact that Coraline is about to open higher than Laika’s last theatrical release (Missing Link) is pretty impressive, especially since it just had a re-release a year ago and opened to like 7M then too.

[AniNate]

Hopefully this means Laika as a brand/studio has a certain nostalgic draw now and people will start showing up for their new movies too

[kayumanggi]

 

[el sid]

Alien: Romulus had, counted today for today, 2.753 sold tickets (with shows in 7 theaters). Best sales by far in the AMC Universal Cinema in LA (1.213 sold tickets). 

Up so-so 12% since yesterday. 

 

Comps (always counted on Thursday for Thursday) Furiosa (3.5M from previews, always true Thursday) had 2.482 sold tickets = 3.9M. 

GxK (9.2M) had 2.015 = 12.55M. 

The Fall Guy (2.35M) had 1.071 = 6.05M. 

AQP: Day One (6.8M) had 2.160 = 8.65M. 

Planet of the Apes (5M) had 1.657 = 8.3M. 

BT (4.6M) had 1.508 = 8.4M. 

And Uncharted (3.7M) had 1.294 sold tickets = 7.9M. 

 

Average: 7.95M.

A bit down from the 8.55M which it had yesterday and the jump till today wasn't that big so probably this trend will continue. OTOH its reviews are good and I think it will have decent walk-ups. 

So I go with 7M+ (true Thursday). 

[Shawn Robbins]

 

[Krissykins]

So this is officially a dump. Lionsgate do that a lot these days. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

8 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Alien Romulus	T-0	Jax	5	60	218	878	10,144	8.66%
		Phx	7	46	275	974	7,535	12.93%
		Ral	8	61	157	589	7,556	7.80%
	Total		20	167	650	2,441	25,235	9.67%

 

Alien Romulus T-0 adjusted comps

 - Scream VI - 1.28x (7.71m)

 - Nope - 1.23x (8.06m)

 - Halloween Ends - 1.7x (9.4m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .9x (8.12m)

 - Morbius - 1.09x (6.36m)

 - Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - 1.6x (7.03m)

 - TMNT - 2.15x (8.76m)

 - Ghostbusters: Afterlife - 1.36x (5.99m)

 - Halloween Kills - 1.35x (7.2m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 7.09m

Growth model forecast - 6.52m

 

It beat my projected growth for today and hit a +36% which moved the average over 7m!  Another day like this and the sky is the limit.  I'll bump my projection up to 7.5m for the time being and hope for a +40% today

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Alien Romulus	1-Hr	Jax	5	60	347	1,225	10,144	12.08%
		Phx	7	46	134	1,108	7,535	14.70%
		Ral	8	61	211	800	7,556	10.59%
	Total		20	167	692	3,133	25,235	12.42%

 

Alien Romulus T-1 hr adjusted comps

 - Scream VI - 1.27x (7.65m)

 - Nope - 1.08x (7.07m)

 - Halloween Ends - missed

 - Godzilla x Kong - .809x (7.3m)

 - Morbius - 1.06x (6.2m)

 - Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - 1.59x (6.98m)

 - TMNT - 2x (8.16m)

 - Ghostbusters: Afterlife - 1.31x (5.78m)

 - Halloween Kills - 1.26x (6.72m)

All horror - 8.87m

All R movies - 8.23m

All movies - 7.66m

 

Size adjusted comps - 6.75m

Growth model forecast - 6.88m

 

Overall comps are looking much higher than the ones selected.  Disappointing final day is dropping my prediction to 7m (probably a little less and rounded up)

[TalismanRing]

NYC REGAL LOCAL (5PM)
ALIEN: ROMULUS (R): 251/1962 (+136% from WED)

 

COMPS (R)
FURIOSA: $6.11m  
DUNE II: $10.8m  
OPPENH: $7.08m
HALL: KILLS: $7.33m  
DUNE I: $7.19M
The Suicide Squad: $7.21

AVG: $7.62m

 

COMPS (PG-13)
Trap: $6.09m  
AQP 3: $7.92m

 

AVG: $7.01m

 

Very good jump from Wed and comps well up across the board here

Even without the outliers there's a strong coalescing showing $7m+

 

Edited August 15 by TalismanRing

[Eric the Marxist]

https://thequorum.com/weekly-unaided-awareness-chart-the-quiet-before-the-disney-storm/

 

[DAJK]

If you stopped the count RIGHT NOW at both theaters I’m looking at tonight, Romulus would be at 7M previews exactly according to comps. 
 

Coraline sold out yesterday and I think they’re scrambling to add a last minute show, so comps are kind of out the window for that.

[Eric the Marxist]

Quorum Updates

The Front Room T-22: 25.83% Awareness, 44.23% Interest

Megalopolis T-43: 18.91% Awareness, 40.54% Interest

The Wild Robot T-43: 24.68% Awareness, 39.99% Interest

Companion T-148: 15.09% Awareness, 36.98% Interest

Better Man T-162: 12.6% Awareness, 35.66% Interest

Captain America: Brave New World T-183: 50.36% Awareness, 56.46% Interest

 

Alien: Romulus T-1: 51.86% Awareness, 52.74% Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 92% chance of 20M, 73% chance of 30M, 35% chance of 40M, 23% chance of 50M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 80% chance of 30M

Final Interest: 94% chance of 10M, 79% chance of 20M, 61% chance of 30M, 47% chance of 40M, 35% chance of 50M

Horror Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 67% chance of 20M, 40% chance of 30M, 20% chance of 40M, 7% chance of 50M

 

Blink Twice T-8: 31.17% Awareness, 43.15% Interest

Final Awareness: 41% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 48% chance of 10M

Low Interest: 34% chance of 10M

 

The Crow T-8: 40.22% Awareness, 48.44% Interest

Final Awareness: 78% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 60% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 48% chance of 10M

Low Interest: 34% chance of 10M

 

The Forge T-8: 21.28% Awareness, 41.4% Interest

Final Awareness: 19% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 48% chance of 10M

Low Interest: 34% chance of 10M

[abracadabra1998]

On 8/5/2024 at 10:10 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minnesota Previews:

 

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (T-31, Day 1):

Day: T-31, T-30	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 24 theaters	170	159	159	29250	0.54
WEDNESDAY SEP 4 EA: 15 theaters	18	38	38	3848	0.99
TOTALS:	188	197	197	33098	0.6

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		109	109	68.55
MTC1:		74	74	46.54
Other chains:		85	85	53.46

 

Day 1 Comps:

2.81x Fall Guy: $8.87 Million

0.51x Godzilla x Kong: $4.65 Million

0.84x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: $3.97 Million (17 theaters)

1.97x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $8.88 Million (17 theaters)

 

Pretty good, but I really don't know what kind of path this will take: frontloaded (Ghostbusters) or not

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (T-21):

Day: T-21, T-20	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 24 theaters	170	257	416	29250	1.42
WEDNESDAY SEP 4 EA: 17 theaters	20	287	325	4309	7.54
TOTALS:	190	544	741	33559	2.21

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		233	124	56.01
MTC1:		197	123	47.36
Other chains:		219	134	52.64

 

Thursday Comps:

4x Fall Guy (THU): $9.4 Million

1.85x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: $8.69 Million

2.67x Wonka: $9.33 Million

0.63x FNAF: $6.54 Million (no ATP adjustment)

 

Something funky going on with the EA number, one of my theaters shows 99 tickets sold but I am going to keep an eye on that. Don't have reason to think they are fake for now, but it seems very odd, so I'm going to hold off on EA comps. Still, VERY solid numbers, hovering a little under $10 Million for now. Going to keep with these comps, think they decently capture a more family-going, White audience