The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Eric the Marxist]

Quorum Updates

Joker: Folie a Deux T-22: 66.54% Awareness, 62.12% Interest

White Bird T-22: 18.71% Awareness, 40.63% Interest

Saturday Night T-29: 19.75% Awareness, 44.67% Interest

Venom: The Last Dance T-43: 46.28% Awareness, 54.84% Interest

Gladiator 2 T-71: 43.52% Awareness, 48.94% Interest

The Wolf Man T-127: 18.37% Awareness, 40.73% Interest

 

The Killer's Game T-1: 30.06% Awareness, 43.81% Interest

Final Awareness: 40% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 28% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 45% chance of 10M

Low Interest: 33% chance of 10M

 

Speak No Evil T-1: 40.22% Awareness, 47.32% Interest

Final Awareness: 76% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 83% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 45% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 42% chance of 10M

 

Never Let Go T-8: 30.15% Awareness, 45.13% Interest

Final Awareness: 40% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 41% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 45% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 42% chance of 10M

 

Transformers One T-8: 47.15% Awareness, 49.7% Interest

Final Awareness: 76% chance of 10M, 47% chance of 20M, 25% chance of 30M

Animation/Family Awareness: 83% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 45% chance of 10M, 18% chance of 20M, 9% chance of 30M

Animation/Family Interest: 80% chance of 10M, 50% chance of 20M, 20% chance of 30M

[AniNate]

Gotta say those seem like some pretty concerning weekend chances for a nostalgic IP animation like Transformers One. You'd think if it was gonna do numbers the data would be there at this point. Hopefully its budget wasn't much higher than Mutant Mayhem's because at this rate doesn't seem like it's going to do much better.

[Rusty]

21 minutes ago, Eric the Marxist said:

Quorum Updates

Joker: Folie a Deux T-22: 66.54% Awareness, 62.12% Interest

White Bird T-22: 18.71% Awareness, 40.63% Interest

Saturday Night T-29: 19.75% Awareness, 44.67% Interest

Venom: The Last Dance T-43: 46.28% Awareness, 54.84% Interest

Gladiator 2 T-71: 43.52% Awareness, 48.94% Interest

The Wolf Man T-127: 18.37% Awareness, 40.73% Interest

Are these numbers about what's expected at this point for J: FAD? I guess I wonder is awareness low enough that if Warner push promo hard over the next two weeks with spots like during the Presidential Debate along with big premiere events and chat show appearances (Graham Norton in the UK is already confirmed for Gaga and Colin Farrell to promote J:FAD and Penguin at the same time) is it likely that can have a good effect to raise awareness and thereby pre-sales for the weekend?

[justnumbers]

Transformers One is steadily growing in Awareness and Interest. I think it will have a STRONG final week.

[Ryan C]

Just a couple of minutes ago (and even yesterday), I saw that some extra showtimes are being added to the EA screenings that Transformers One is having tomorrow to keep up with demand.

 

In fact, I'm actually going to one of those screenings tomorrow and my theater is about 60% full right now. I would not be surprised if by tomorrow, my screening is completely sold out. 

 

If nothing else, this is a good indication of where this movie could head on opening weekend. Comparing to TMNT: Mutant Mayhem which opened on a Wednesday last August and did $43M, I'm expecting something around that range. Anything between $40M-$50M if it has a strong final week and if these strong pre-sales are any indication. 

[AniNate]

Hopefully it is just Quorum underestimating animation as usual. Would be good news for my pet as well.

[AnthonyJPHer]

Transformers One opening to 45m and legging it out to at least 135m wouldn’t be terrible. 
 

The Wild Robot is going to heavily rely on if it can buck the trend of previous September animated movies. I think at most it’s going to do Cloudy/Hotel numbers for its final domestic total. 

[CheeseWizard]

2 hours ago, AniNate said:

Gotta say those seem like some pretty concerning weekend chances for a nostalgic IP animation like Transformers One. You'd think if it was gonna do numbers the data would be there at this point. Hopefully its budget wasn't much higher than Mutant Mayhem's because at this rate doesn't seem like it's going to do much better.

Budget is reportedly 92 million so it’s got a good chance atm.

[CheeseWizard]

1 hour ago, justnumbers said:

Transformers One is steadily growing in Awareness and Interest. I think it will have a STRONG final week.

Maybe not strong, but it should defintiely grow after today. It got a shedload of attention because of the Studio Trigger collab, which is also bringing attention to the fact that we’ve actually got a good transformers movie coming out for once. If it stays above 80% on RT I can imagine that helping it a lot. 

[vafrow]

The Substance seems to be getting a decent distribution for Thursday previews around here. 57 of 155 locations within MTC4. And thats only with Thursday previews up. It could get more when they finalize the next week schedule.

 

It's playing at my local which rarely gets anything that isn't getting 1500 screens across North America (outside the South Asian releases).

 

I looked at this briefly during TIFF as I had a chance of free tickets, but couldn't make it work schedule wise. 

[Tinalera]

Right Im about to start (trying) to get back to counting....and I decided to look up Joker 2...

 

Um.......

 

MONDAy preview??

 

Id like to know how I should track this-I mean doing a WED preview with Thurs and Fri Im okay with....is there a worth (Esp up North here) in doing single show Tracking for mon, Wed, Thus Fri? Just wanting some advice on this one.

 

 

 

[ZeeSoh]

35 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Right Im about to start (trying) to get back to counting....and I decided to look up Joker 2...

 

Um.......

 

MONDAy preview??

 

Id like to know how I should track this-I mean doing a WED preview with Thurs and Fri Im okay with....is there a worth (Esp up North here) in doing single show Tracking for mon, Wed, Thus Fri? Just wanting some advice on this one.

 

 

If you have tracked EA shows before then you can track Joker's and do a comp, otherwise it wouldn't make much sense to track them. In such a case it would be better to just stick to Thursday previews imo. But trackers who regularly track will be better able to answer this one.

[Tinalera]

Joker 2

Thurs Oct 3 Fri Oct 4 (T-21)

Vancouver and Calgary Canada

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver			3
	Thurs	3	11	41	2035	2076	0.019
	Fri	4	32	73	6271	6344	0.011
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary
	Thurs	4	20	48	4116	4164	0.011
	Fri	4	28	15	4889	4904	0.003

 

 

So it looks like these ones dont have those previews. Toronto and Montreal do (sigh) so while I def will do Wed Previews, I don't know if Ill do the Monday previews yet, Ill figure it out. 

 

It is my GOAL to try and be a little more consistent with tracking....but we will see what laugh life has in store for me. 

Edited Friday at 10:40 PM by Tinalera

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, Tinalera said:

Right Im about to start (trying) to get back to counting....and I decided to look up Joker 2...

 

Um.......

 

MONDAy preview??

 

Id like to know how I should track this-I mean doing a WED preview with Thurs and Fri Im okay with....is there a worth (Esp up North here) in doing single show Tracking for mon, Wed, Thus Fri? Just wanting some advice on this one.

 

 

Dune 2 had Sunday previews, which is what I'm using for the Monday previews on Joker.

 

I don't have any Wednesday showings in my sample, but if I did, I'd be tempted to roll into the Monday EA. I'm doing something similar on Transformers One.

 

The problem is that the Dune 2 comp seems almost unfair. It overperformed in Canada, particularly because of the imax screens. 

[misterpepp]

My Hero Academia: You're Next on sale Sep 18

[TinaDuraes]

6 hours ago, Rusty said:

Are these numbers about what's expected at this point for J: FAD? I guess I wonder is awareness low enough that if Warner push promo hard over the next two weeks with spots like during the Presidential Debate along with big premiere events and chat show appearances (Graham Norton in the UK is already confirmed for Gaga and Colin Farrell to promote J:FAD and Penguin at the same time) is it likely that can have a good effect to raise awareness and thereby pre-sales for the weekend?

It's the only movie right now with an "interest" score lower than its "awareness" score... so no, not great numbers.

[CheeseWizard]

So in terms of animated movies, is there ever any correlation between parents complaining about it being too dark, and a drop in the movie’s earnings? I mean have films like Kung Fu Panda 2 suffered box office wise from parents saying it had too much dark imagery for a PG rating?
 

cus I think we might see complaints from Wild Robot and especially TFOne for stuff like that atm 

Edited Friday at 11:15 PM by CheeseWizard

[efialtes76]

6 minutes ago, TinaDuraes said:

It's the only movie right now with an "interest" score lower than its "awareness" score... so no, not great numbers.

Maybe because the awareness score is very high at this moment...

PS:Quorum is useless.

Edited Friday at 11:16 PM by efialtes76

[Lux Lenchner]

9 minutes ago, CheeseWizard said:

So in terms of animated movies, is there ever any correlation between parents complaining about it being too dark, and a drop in the movie’s earnings? I mean have films like Kung Fu Panda 2 suffered box office wise from parents saying it had too much dark imagery for a PG rating?
 

cus I think we might see complaints from Wild Robot and especially TFOne for stuff like that atm 

 

The Wolf from Puss in Boots: The Last Wish is the scariest animated movie villain we've gotten in years, and I don't recall him badly affecting the movie's legs in any way.

Edited Friday at 11:24 PM by Lux Lenchner

[AniNate]

Every animated movie has someone somewhere saying it's too dark, so it's not something that you can easily measure. It tends to be overstated by insecure fans who are indirectly trying to promote movies as cool mature fare that adults can watch.

 

When mainstream stuff like DreamWorks or Pixar movies get really good reviews though, the general audience reception tends to follow. Do think transformers might have a lower box office ceiling than wild robot though as imo there's a more limited audience for blatantly toy franchise driven features. Mutant Mayhem got strong reviews and had no family competition its whole run but still had worse legs and total box office than Elemental.

 

 

Edited Friday at 11:29 PM by AniNate