The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

13 minutes ago, Flip said:

Gladiator 2 (T-30) 

 

14 showtimes/151 tix sold (+41!)
 

Missed AQP Day One (T-30) [???]

3.28x Twisters (T-30) [24.6m]

1.53x Beetlejuice 2 (T-30) [14.99m]

 

Um, not really sure what happened today. Hopefully other trackers can see if Gladiator 2 is growing a lot in their locations or (more likely) this is something location specific to NYC/NJ. 

It just screened in NY right? Perhaps the reactions played a role?

[AniNate]

My theater really wanted to get rid of Joker quick. TFOne still getting a full theater slate next weekend.

[BallotRetTemporalDepLegion]

3 minutes ago, AniNate said:

My theater really wanted to get rid of Joker quick. TFOne still getting a full theater slate next weekend.

TFone had a 20% better PTA (changed from 20% worse the prior weekend) so pretty logical to keep it over Joker 

 

[vale9001]

For gladiator even 60M opening wouldn't be bad at all if the movie will be a crowd pleasure like reactions are saying. Scott Mendelson (so not someone says something is good cause he has to do it) wrote if you liked the first movie you're gonna like this. So no joker 2 situation.

 

Then like someone wrote this is the typical movie like top gun, mission impossible, bond or nolan movies can have (especially with thanksgiving the week after and then Christmas season) legs, It's not a cinecomic.

 

For this kinda of movie the fact 30 days before there is this level of pre Sales seems pretty good honestly.

 

 

 

 

Edited Wednesday at 07:04 AM by vale9001

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Venom: The Last Dance , T-3, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Total Sales: 344

New Sales: 66

7 day average growth rate: 15.6%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 17.2

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 27/4

Early Evening: 239/8

Late Evening: 78/7

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 13/1

Dolby 3D: 93/6

IMAX: 103/4

IMAX 3D: 6/2

4DX 3D: 16/3

VIP: 108/3

 

Comps 

1.224x Joker 2 for $7.7M

3.865x GB:FE for $18.2M

1.065x HG:BoSS for $6.1M

1.977x Aquaman 2 for $8.9M

Average: $10.2M

 

It's gone up against comps and back to a good acceleration. That said, given the range of comps, it's best to look at the low end. That Hunger Games comp should rise to low 7s by T-1, and then have better walk ups. Joker had a surprisingly good final week market, so I actually don't see that comp changing much.

 

Venom: The Last Dance , T-2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Total Sales: 446

New Sales: 102

7 day average growth rate: 17.5%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 22.3

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 34/4

Early Evening: 284/8

Late Evening: 128/7

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 20/1

Dolby 3D: 136/6

IMAX: 116/4

IMAX 3D: 10/2

4DX 3D: 20/3

VIP: 144/3

 

Comps 

1.352x Joker 2 for $8.5M

4.505x GB:FE for $21.2M

1.222x HG:BoSS for $7.0M

1.914x Aquaman 2 for $8.9M

Average: $11.3M

 

It looks like I'm the track for all the hopium addicts. It's still going up. Growth was a bit ahead of where I thought it would land, and the consistency we've seen, I only expect a positive result for tomorrow.

 

I still don't have any insights into why it's overperforming here. There's nothing in the demographics that I can think of that would lend itself to this overperforming. I didn't track LTBC as a baseline. I'm not sure if other Canadian trackers are seeing anything.

[justnumbers]

Gladiator II will do fine but I think the trailers were a waste of everyone's time and expectations, as I've said many time. 

First trailer was received with a lot of negativity and the 2nd was just fine. They never tried to play the nostalgia angle with some previous score pieces. It was such an easy move and they didn't do it. Not to mention Ridley is basically washed now, doesn't mean anything to audiences and probably responsible for this movie never being able to be profitable even If it did 500M Worldwide, which it won't. This movie won't have any momentum and will have an average performance.

 

These Venom numbers are quite surprising but I'll take the death of the Sony shit-verse. That's probably a bigger win that this movie succeeding.

Edited Wednesday at 12:14 PM by justnumbers

[filmlover]

The marketing for A Real Pain is now saying "wide November 15" so hopefully it has strong numbers when it bows in limited two weeks before. 

[joselowe]

1 hour ago, justnumbers said:

Gladiator II will do fine but I think the trailers were a waste of everyone's time and expectations, as I've said many time. 

First trailer was received with a lot of negativity and the 2nd was just fine. They never tried to play the nostalgia angle with some previous score pieces. It was such an easy move and they didn't do it. Not to mention Ridley is basically washed now, doesn't mean anything to audiences and probably responsible for this movie never being able to be profitable even If it did 500M Worldwide, which it won't. This movie won't have any momentum and will have an average performance.

 

These Venom numbers are quite surprising but I'll take the death of the Sony shit-verse. That's probably a bigger win that this movie succeeding.

Which is complete opposite for Wicked. The Wicked budget was $145 million…. But that was for the two films combined. Jon Chu and Universal were smart two use the budget to build two films which essentially means each film cost Universal $72 million and they are making a killing with the branding deals. So even if Wicked underperforms Universal essentially won’t lose anything.

[vale9001]

53 minutes ago, joselowe said:

Which is complete opposite for Wicked. The Wicked budget was $145 million…. But that was for the two films combined. Jon Chu and Universal were smart two use the budget to build two films which essentially means each film cost Universal $72 million and they are making a killing with the branding deals. So even if Wicked underperforms Universal essentially won’t lose anything.

 

But that's double in marketing.  Probably for part II they will spend less money but still they have to do something. 

Of course seems like the movie will be a big success anyways so It's okay ..but between the marketing and distribuiton for two movies the marketing total should be definitely in the 150- 200M range (so 300-350M for everything). The investment risk wasn't that safe thereotically.

 

 

Edited Wednesday at 02:39 PM by vale9001

[vale9001]

10 hours ago, Flip said:

Gladiator 2 (T-30) 

 

14 showtimes/151 tix sold (+41!)
 

Missed AQP Day One (T-30) [???]

3.28x Twisters (T-30) [24.6m]

1.53x Beetlejuice 2 (T-30) [14.99m]

 

Um, not really sure what happened today. Hopefully other trackers can see if Gladiator 2 is growing a lot in their locations or (more likely) this is something location specific to NYC/NJ. 

 

From the number of likes and 10M views of this tweet alone probably just because of this 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited Wednesday at 02:48 PM by vale9001

[Chubbycc]

21 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

From the number of likes and 10M views of this tweet alone probably just because of this 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I've noticed Gladiator 2 has been getting hit tweets like this with millions of views but it isn't translating much with the pre-sales. Shows that Twitter isn't real life. I think Tiktok is better platform to measure the popularity of this movie. Moana 2 has huge trailer views and hundreds of posts on Tiktok, but its quiet on Twitter. And Wicked has been getting viral posts on Tiktok as well. 

[vafrow]

11 hours ago, Flip said:

Gladiator 2 (T-30) 

 

14 showtimes/151 tix sold (+41!)
 

Missed AQP Day One (T-30) [???]

3.28x Twisters (T-30) [24.6m]

1.53x Beetlejuice 2 (T-30) [14.99m]

 

Um, not really sure what happened today. Hopefully other trackers can see if Gladiator 2 is growing a lot in their locations or (more likely) this is something location specific to NYC/NJ. 

 

I didn't see anything to that great extent, but I am still seeing some decent activity in my Gladiator numbers. It was up 13% today and it's 7 day average growth is at 8%. Wicked is down to 2.5% average daily growth, which Id say is probably more typical.

 

 

[DAJK]

Anecdotal but my local is seeing some really great surges for Venom these past few days. Thursday has really accelerated, and Friday is starting to pick up too. I’ll do a more in depth analysis after work.

[stripe]

9 minutes ago, Chubbycc said:

 

I've noticed Gladiator 2 has been getting hit tweets like this with millions of views but it isn't translating much with the pre-sales. Shows that Twitter isn't real life. I think Tiktok is better platform to measure the popularity of this movie. Moana 2 has huge trailer views and hundreds of posts on Tiktok, but its quiet on Twitter. And Wicked has been getting viral posts on Tiktok as well. 

 

Tiktok is better to measure the popularity for young audience. Gladiator 2 is aiming for adults, an audience that prefers Twitter and has not the necessity to rush and buy a ticket a month in advance.

[stripe]

12 hours ago, filmlover said:

Don't know if anyone else is tracking it but the sales for the early shows on 11/10 for Red One seem solid this far out near me. Wonder if it might benefit from being by far the most high-profile holiday themed movie this year, Amazon is certainly pushing it.

 

Interesting... Let's see if we can have some numbers to confirm this

[ChipDerby]

28 minutes ago, Chubbycc said:

 

I've noticed Gladiator 2 has been getting hit tweets like this with millions of views but it isn't translating much with the pre-sales. Shows that Twitter isn't real life. I think Tiktok is better platform to measure the popularity of this movie. Moana 2 has huge trailer views and hundreds of posts on Tiktok, but its quiet on Twitter. And Wicked has been getting viral posts on Tiktok as well. 

 

Twitter is just content farming at this point. It's all bots and brands. Views and likes are inflated like never before.

[ringedmortality]

Twitter is like the dead internet meme scaled up to a thousand. It's remnants of a former colony, with only the most loyal users actually active on it.

[Morieris]

1 hour ago, vale9001 said:

 

But that's double in marketing.  Probably for part II they will spend less money but still they have to do something. 

Of course seems like the movie will be a big success anyways so It's okay ..but between the marketing and distribuiton for two movies the marketing total should be definitely in the 150- 200M range (so 300-350M for everything). The investment risk wasn't that safe thereotically.

 

 

 

That's assuming they don't already have deals built in to promote both parts. If they were smart enough to budget under 150$m for two movies, I believe they thought that far ahead.

 

I can easily see the Starbucks collab "returning for a limited time" next October.

[vafrow]

19 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Anecdotal but my local is seeing some really great surges for Venom these past few days. Thursday has really accelerated, and Friday is starting to pick up too. I’ll do a more in depth analysis after work.

 

So maybe it is a Canadian thing. Jat usually comes through with some separate Canadian reporting when there's a big overperformance here.

 

I just can't think of why it would be the case. The two big overperformers this year were Dune and KFP4. Dune was the Villeneuve effect. KFP4 was alignment to the March break period I think.

[Eric is Gay for Venom]

Quorum Updates

The Best Christmas Pageant Ever T-16: 21.81% Awareness, 34.13% Interest

Companion T-79: 6.38% Awareness, 30.46% Interest

The Monkey T-121: 26.9% Awareness, 42.27% Interest

Sinners T-135: 17.22% Awareness, 37.4% Interest

Drop T-170: 11.26% Awareness, 25.6% Interest

 

Conclave T-2: 25.3% Awareness, 31.67% Interest

Final Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 17% chance of 10M

Low Interest: 8% chance of 20M

 

Venom: The Last Dance T-2: 61.27% Awareness, 53.03% Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 87% chance of 30M, 83% chance of 40M, 73% chance of 50M, 57% chance of 60M, 47% chance of 70M, 37% chance of 80M, 27% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 83% chance of 40M, 67% chance of 50M, 50% chance of 100M

Final Interest: 79% chance of 20M, 61% chance of 30M, 48% chance of 40M, 34% chance of 50M, 22% chance of 60M, 16% chance of 70M, 15% chance of 80M, 12% chance of 90M, 9% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 20M, 86% chance of 30M, 71% chance of 40M, 57% chance of 50M, 43% chance of 60M, 29% chance of 90M, 14% chance of 100M

 

Wicked T-30: 60.68% Awareness, 48.79% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 89% chance of 50M, 78% chance of 90M, 67% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 80% chance of 50M, 60% chance of 100M

T-30 Interest: 57% chance of 10M, 34% chance of 20M, 19% chance of 30M, 10% chance of 40M, 7% chance of 50M, 5% chance of 70M, 4% chance of 80M, 2% chance of 90M, 2% chance of 100M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 87% chance of 20M, 62% chance of 30M, 50% chance of 40M, 37% chance of 50M, 25% chance of 80M, 12% chance of 100M

 

Moana 2 T-35: 67.81% Awareness, 55.27% Interest

T-30 Awareness (5-Day): 100% chance of 100M

Animation/Family Awareness (5-Day): 100% chance of 100M

T-30 Interest (5-Day): 50% chance of 100M, 25% chance of 200M 

Animation/Family Interest (5-Day): 100% chance of 100M, 50% chance of 200M

 

Babygirl T-63: 15.12% Awareness, 30.88% Interest

T-60 Awareness (5-Day): 33% chance of 20M

Low Awareness (5-Day): 0% chance of 10M

T-60 Interest (5-Day): 67% chance of 10M, 33% chance of 30M,

Low Interest (5-Day): 0% chance of 10M